Brea vs La Almunia prediction, Saturday 10 October: chances and analysisBack to today's picks
· Spain - Tercera División RFEF - Group 17
Brea v La AlmuniaHomevAwayHomevAway
No pick for this match: no market passed our rules.
Our model's chances
Chances of each result: Brea win 37%, Draw 26%, La Almunia win 37%.
Brea host La Almunia in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 17, Spain.
Our model gives Brea a 37% chance of winning, a draw 26% and La Almunia 37%.
The model expects Brea to score 1.4 goals and La Almunia 1.4.
Brea have won 3 of their last 5 league matches; La Almunia have won 2 of 5.
Top factors
- Brea sit 3rd with 11 points; La Almunia sit 10th with 7 points.
- Brea have taken 11 points from their last 5 matches; La Almunia 7 from 5.
- At home, Brea have taken 9 points from their last 3; away, La Almunia have taken 3 from their last 2.
Chances and prices are from our nightly scan before the match. Nothing after that is used.
Key numbers, the table, form, head to head and more.
Our model's chance for each market. No bookmaker prices yet.
Yesterday: 4 of 4 picks won. See every pick
Today's picks
Today, Saturday 10 October
Times shown in your time (EDT)
Expected goals (our model)Brea 1.4, La Almunia 1.4 Context onlyTable position isn't in the model.
Where the teams sit in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 17, before kick-off.
Brea sit 3rd with 11 points; La Almunia sit 10th with 7. A gap of 8 in goal difference, in favour of Brea.
Stored before 7 October 2026: wins, draws, losses and goals were not kept.
- 2nd Ejea12 points from 5 games · goal difference +5
- 3rd Brea11 points from 5 games · goal difference +7
- 4th Atlético Monzón10 points from 5 games · goal difference +1
- 9th Épila7 points from 5 games · goal difference 0
- 10th La Almunia7 points from 5 games · goal difference -1
- 11th Almudévar6 points from 5 games · goal difference +1
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|
| 2 | Ejea | 5 | – | – | – | – | – | +5 | 12 |
| 3 | Brea | 5 | – | – | – | – | – | +7 | 11 |
| 4 | Atlético Monzón | 5 | – | – | – | – | – | +1 | 10 |
| 9 | Épila | 5 | – | – | – | – | – | 0 | 7 |
| 10 | La Almunia | 5 | – | – | – | – | – | -1 | 7 |
| 11 | Almudévar | 5 | – | – | – | – | – | +1 | 6 |
Show full tableShow less
- 1st Real Zaragoza II13 points from 5 games · goal difference +8
- 2nd Ejea12 points from 5 games · goal difference +5
- 3rd Brea11 points from 5 games · goal difference +7
- 4th Atlético Monzón10 points from 5 games · goal difference +1
- 5th Cuarte9 points from 5 games · goal difference +5
- 6th Caspe8 points from 5 games · goal difference +3
- 7th Fraga8 points from 5 games · goal difference +2
- 8th Binéfar7 points from 5 games · goal difference +1
- 9th Épila7 points from 5 games · goal difference 0
- 10th La Almunia7 points from 5 games · goal difference -1
- 11th Almudévar6 points from 5 games · goal difference +1
Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.
Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
WWonv CDJ Tamarite4 Oct 2026 · Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 · Home1–0
WWonv Andorra CF27 Sept 2026 · Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 · Home3–0
DDrewat CD Sietamo20 Sept 2026 · Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 · Away1–1
WWonv Illueca12 Sept 2026 · Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 · Home3–0
DDrewat Belchite 976 Sept 2026 · Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 · Away1–1
Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.
Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
LLostv Cuarte4 Oct 2026 · Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 · Home1–3
WWonat Épila27 Sept 2026 · Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 · Away3–1
WWonv Binéfar19 Sept 2026 · Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 · Home2–1
LLostat Real Zaragoza II13 Sept 2026 · Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 · Away0–2
DDrewv Huesca II6 Sept 2026 · Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 · Home2–2
In the modelThe model rates each team's home and away records separately.
The last 5 and 10 matches, then Brea at home and La Almunia away only: a home fixture is read from home matches where there are enough.
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
Brea
- Last 5 (5)3 won, 2 drawn, 0 lost · 9 scored, 2 conceded · 2.20 points a game · 3 clean sheets · failed to score in 0
- Last 10 (5)3 won, 2 drawn, 0 lost · 9 scored, 2 conceded · 2.20 points a game · 3 clean sheets · failed to score in 0
- Home, last 5 (3)3 won, 0 drawn, 0 lost · 7 scored, 0 conceded · 3.00 points a game · 3 clean sheets · failed to score in 0
- Home, last 10 (3)3 won, 0 drawn, 0 lost · 7 scored, 0 conceded · 3.00 points a game · 3 clean sheets · failed to score in 0
Brea| Sample | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | CS | FTS |
|---|
| Last 5 (5) | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 9 | 2 | +7 | 11 | 2.20 | 3 | 0 |
|---|
| Last 10 (5) | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 9 | 2 | +7 | 11 | 2.20 | 3 | 0 |
|---|
| Home, last 5 (3) | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 0 | +7 | 9 | 3.00 | 3 | 0 |
|---|
| Home, last 10 (3) | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 0 | +7 | 9 | 3.00 | 3 | 0 |
|---|
La Almunia
- Last 5 (5)2 won, 1 drawn, 2 lost · 8 scored, 9 conceded · 1.40 points a game · 0 clean sheets · failed to score in 1
- Last 10 (5)2 won, 1 drawn, 2 lost · 8 scored, 9 conceded · 1.40 points a game · 0 clean sheets · failed to score in 1
- Away, last 5 (2)1 won, 0 drawn, 1 lost · 3 scored, 3 conceded · 1.50 points a game · 0 clean sheets · failed to score in 1
- Away, last 10 (2)1 won, 0 drawn, 1 lost · 3 scored, 3 conceded · 1.50 points a game · 0 clean sheets · failed to score in 1
La Almunia| Sample | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | CS | FTS |
|---|
| Last 5 (5) | 5 | 2 |
|---|
Brea at home: Insufficient historical data. Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
La Almunia away: Insufficient historical data. Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
Context onlyShown for context. The model's own ratings come from goals scored and conceded this season and last.
| Measure | Brea | La Almunia |
|---|
| League position | 3rd | 10th |
|---|
| Points per game | 2.20 | 1.40 |
|---|
| Attack: goals per game (last 5 and 5) | 1.80 | 1.60 |
|---|
| Defence: conceded per game (last 5 and 5) | 0.40 | 1.80 |
|---|
| Clean sheets | 3 | 0 |
|---|
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
In the modelMissing players move the model's expected goals, chiefly a missing top scorer.
Players out or doubtful, as reported the night before.
Showing the top 20 of 26 picks, in kick-off order. 6 more are under Show all.Updating…
Starting in 3 to 6 hours (12)
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 71%
Average price 1.32
GENGenoaLLWDLFIOFiorentinaDWWLL
Last 5 games
· Italy - Serie A
Each of Fiorentina's last 5 league matches had two or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 93%
Average price 1.03
AUGFC AugsburgDLDWWBMUBayern MünchenWWWD
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 85%
Average price 1.10
HOF1899 HoffenheimLLWLLHAMHamburger SVWWLL
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 87%
Average price 1.07
PADSC Paderborn 07WWLLDVSTVfB StuttgartWWLL
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 82%
Average price 1.13
UBEUnion BerlinWLLLDELVSV ElversbergLDLW
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 84%
Average price 1.11
FMAFSV Mainz 05WWLWDBLEBayer LeverkusenWWDW
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 83%
Average price 1.13
CHEChelseaLDWLWBOUBournemouthLWDW
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 79%
Average price 1.18
MIDMiddlesbroughDDWLWWOLWolvesWLWD
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 75%
Average price 1.25
PREPrestonDLLWLMILMillwallDDLL
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 86%
Average price 1.08
RANRangersWWWWWKILKilmarnockDWDD
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 75%
Average price 1.25
ALAAlavesDLLWWAMAAtletico MadridWWWL
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 85%
Average price 1.09
GAEGO Ahead EaglesDDDLWSROSparta RotterdamLLDL
Starting later (8)
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 86%
Average price 1.08
INTInterWDWLWPARParmaWLD
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|
| 1 | Real Zaragoza II | 5 | – | – | – | – | – | +8 | 13 |
| 2 | Ejea | 5 | – | – | – | – | – | +5 | 12 |
| 3 | Brea | 5 | – | – | – | – | – | +7 | 11 |
| 4 | Atlético Monzón | 5 | – | – | – | – | – | +1 | 10 |
| 5 | Cuarte | 5 | – | – | – | – | – | +5 | 9 |
| 6 | Caspe | 5 | – | – | – | – | – | +3 | 8 |
| 7 | Fraga | 5 | – | – | – | – | – | +2 | 8 |
| 8 | Binéfar | 5 | – | – | – | – | – | +1 | 7 |
| 9 | Épila | 5 | – | – | – | – | – | 0 | 7 |
| 10 | La Almunia | 5 | – | – | – | – | – | -1 | 7 |
| 11 | Almudévar | 5 | – | – | – | – | – | +1 | 6 |
| 12 | CDJ Tamarite | 5 | – | – | – | – | – | -1 | 6 |
| 13 | Huesca II | 5 | – | – | – | – | – | -1 | 6 |
| 14 | Illueca | 5 | – | – | – | – | – | -3 | 6 |
| 15 | CD Sietamo | 5 | – | – | – | – | – | -3 | 4 |
| 16 | Andorra CF | 5 | – | – | – | – | – | -6 | 4 |
| 17 | Robres | 5 | – | – | – | – | – | -7 | 1 |
| 18 | Belchite 97 | 5 | – | – | – | – | – | -11 | 1 |
| Last 10 (5) | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 9 | -1 | 7 | 1.40 | 0 | 1 |
|---|
| Away, last 5 (2) | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 1.50 | 0 | 1 |
|---|
| Away, last 10 (2) | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 1.50 | 0 | 1 |
|---|
W
· Germany - Bundesliga
Each of FC Augsburg's last 4 league matches had three or more goals.
L
· Germany - Bundesliga
Each of 1899 Hoffenheim's last 4 league matches had three or more goals.
W
· Germany - Bundesliga
3 of VfB Stuttgart's last 4 league matches had two or more goals.
W
· Germany - Bundesliga
Each of Union Berlin's last 4 league matches had three or more goals.
L
· Germany - Bundesliga
Each of Bayer Leverkusen's last 4 league matches had two or more goals.
D
· England - Premier League
Each of Chelsea's last 5 league matches had three or more goals.
L
· England - Championship
Each of Middlesbrough's last 4 home matches had three or more goals.
W
· England - Championship
Each of Millwall's last 8 league matches had two or more goals.
L
· Scotland - Premiership
The model expects Rangers to score 1.9 goals and Kilmarnock 0.9.
L
· Spain - La Liga
Each of Atletico Madrid's last 7 league matches had two or more goals.
D
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
Each of GO Ahead Eagles's last 7 league matches had two or more goals.
L
L
· Italy - Serie A
Each of Parma's last 4 league matches had two or more goals.
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 88%
Average price 1.05
RLERB LeipzigLWLLWEFREintracht FrankfurtWDWLD
Last 5 games
· Germany - Bundesliga
Each of RB Leipzig's last 4 league matches had two or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 83%
Average price 1.12
MANManchester UnitedDLLWDTOTTottenhamLLDDL
Last 5 games
· England - Premier League
4 of Manchester United's last 5 league matches had two or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 85%
Average price 1.10
FEYFeyenoordWWLWDAALAZ AlkmaarWLDWW
Last 5 games
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
Each of Feyenoord's last 6 league matches had three or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 74%
Average price 1.25
MARMaritimoDLLLDPORFC PortoWWWLW
Last 5 games
· Portugal - Primeira Liga
Each of FC Porto's last 7 league matches had two or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 86%
Average price 1.09
FSIFortuna SittardWWLWWTWETwenteWWWWD
Last 5 games
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
Each of Fortuna Sittard's last 3 home matches had two or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 88%
Average price 1.06
AJAAjaxDWWLWNNINEC NijmegenDLLDL
Last 5 games
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
Each of Ajax's last 7 league matches had two or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 88%
Average price 1.05
RMAReal MadridLWWWLVILVillarrealWWLLL
Last 5 games
· Spain - La Liga
Each of Villarreal's last 4 league matches had three or more goals.
See the full analysis