Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
78%win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 71%
Average price 1.32
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Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
78%win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 71%
Average price 1.32
Last 5 games
· Italy - Serie A
Each of Fiorentina's last 5 league matches had two or more goals.
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
87%win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 93%
Average price 1.03
Last 5 games
· Germany - Bundesliga
Each of FC Augsburg's last 4 league matches had three or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
85%win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 85%
Average price 1.10
Last 5 games
· Germany - Bundesliga
Each of 1899 Hoffenheim's last 4 league matches had three or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
84%win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 87%
Average price 1.07
Last 5 games
· Germany - Bundesliga
3 of VfB Stuttgart's last 4 league matches had two or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
83%win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 82%
Average price 1.13
Last 5 games
· Germany - Bundesliga
Each of Union Berlin's last 4 league matches had three or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
81%win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 84%
Average price 1.11
Last 5 games
· Germany - Bundesliga
Each of Bayer Leverkusen's last 4 league matches had two or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
80%win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 83%
Average price 1.13
Last 5 games
· England - Premier League
Each of Chelsea's last 5 league matches had three or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
80%win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 79%
Average price 1.18
Last 5 games
· England - Championship
Each of Middlesbrough's last 4 home matches had three or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
77%win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 75%
Average price 1.25
Last 5 games
· England - Championship
Each of Millwall's last 8 league matches had two or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
77%win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 86%
Average price 1.08
Last 5 games
· Scotland - Premiership
The model expects Rangers to score 1.9 goals and Kilmarnock 0.9.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
77%win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 75%
Average price 1.25
Last 5 games
· Spain - La Liga
Each of Atletico Madrid's last 7 league matches had two or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
85%win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 85%
Average price 1.09
Last 5 games
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
Each of GO Ahead Eagles's last 7 league matches had two or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
81%win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 86%
Average price 1.08
Last 5 games
· Italy - Serie A
Each of Parma's last 4 league matches had two or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
89%win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 88%
Average price 1.05
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
78%win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 83%
Average price 1.12
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
85%win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 85%
Average price 1.10
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
78%win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 74%
Average price 1.25
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
85%win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 86%
Average price 1.09
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
86%win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 88%
Average price 1.06
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
83%win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 88%
Average price 1.05
· England - Premier League Cup
No pick for this match: no market passed our rules.
Chances of each result: Brentford U21 win 53%, Draw 21%, Derby County U21 win 26%.
Brentford U21 host Derby County U21 in the Premier League Cup, England.
Our model gives Brentford U21 a 53% chance of winning, a draw 21% and Derby County U21 26%.
The model expects Brentford U21 to score 2.2 goals and Derby County U21 1.4.
Chances and prices are from our nightly scan before the match. Nothing after that is used.
Our model's chance for each market, with the bookmakers' average price.
Last 5 games
· Germany - Bundesliga
Each of RB Leipzig's last 4 league matches had two or more goals.
Last 5 games
· England - Premier League
4 of Manchester United's last 5 league matches had two or more goals.
Last 5 games
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
Each of Feyenoord's last 6 league matches had three or more goals.
Last 5 games
· Portugal - Primeira Liga
Each of FC Porto's last 7 league matches had two or more goals.
Last 5 games
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
Each of Fortuna Sittard's last 3 home matches had two or more goals.
Last 5 games
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
Each of Ajax's last 7 league matches had two or more goals.
Last 5 games
· Spain - La Liga
Each of Villarreal's last 4 league matches had three or more goals.
Context onlyTable position isn't in the model.
Where the teams sit in the Premier League Cup, before kick-off.
Brentford U21 sit 13th with 4 points; Derby County U21 sit 37th with 0. A gap of 5 in goal difference, in favour of Brentford U21; Brentford U21 have played 1 more.
Stored before 7 October 2026: wins, draws, losses and goals were not kept.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Swansea City U21 | 2 | – | – | – | – | – | +3 | 4 |
| 13 | Brentford U21 | 2 | – | – | – | – | – | +2 | 4 |
| 14 | Leeds United U21 | 3 | – | – | – | – | – | +1 | 4 |
| 36 | Plymouth U21 | 2 | – | – | – | – | – | -3 | 0 |
| 37 | Derby County U21 | 1 | – | – | – | – | – | -3 | 0 |
| 38 | Reading U21 | 3 | – | – | – | – | – |
Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.
Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.
Insufficient historical data. Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.
Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.
Insufficient historical data. Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
In the modelThe model rates each team's home and away records separately.
The last 5 and 10 matches, then Brentford U21 at home and Derby County U21 away only: a home fixture is read from home matches where there are enough.
Insufficient historical data. Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
| Sample | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | CS | FTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (2) | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | +2 | 4 | 2.00 | 1 | 0 |
| Last 10 (2) | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | +2 | 4 | 2.00 | 1 | 0 |
| Home, last 5 (1) | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | +2 | 3 | 3.00 | 1 | 0 |
| Home, last 10 (1) | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | +2 | 3 | 3.00 | 1 | 0 |
| Sample | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | CS | FTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (1) | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 0 |
Brentford U21 at home: Insufficient historical data. Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
Derby County U21 away: Data unavailable.
Context onlyShown for context. The model's own ratings come from goals scored and conceded this season and last.
| Measure | Brentford U21 | Derby County U21 |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 13th | 37th |
| Points per game | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| Attack: goals per game (last 2 and 1) | 1.50 | 1.00 |
| Defence: conceded per game (last 2 and 1) | 0.50 | 4.00 |
| Clean sheets | 1 | 0 |
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
In the modelMissing players move the model's expected goals, chiefly a missing top scorer.
Players out or doubtful, as reported the night before.
None reported.
None reported.
| -6 |
| 0 |
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Southampton U21 | 3 | – | – | – | – | – | +8 | 7 |
| 2 | Huddersfield Town U21 | 3 | – | – | – | – | – | +5 | 7 |
| 3 | Brighton U21 | 3 | – | – | – | – | – | +3 | 7 |
| 4 | Wolves U21 | 3 | – | – | – | – | – | +3 | 7 |
| 5 | Charlton Athletic U21 | 3 | – | – | – | – | – | +2 | 7 |
| 6 | Nottingham Forest U21 | 2 | – | – | – | – | – | +6 | 6 |
| 7 | Bristol City U21 | 2 | – | – | – | – | – | +5 | 6 |
| 8 | Leicester City U21 | 3 | – | – | – | – | – | +3 | 6 |
| 9 | Norwich City U21 | 2 | – | – | – | – | – | +3 | 6 |
| 10 | Cardiff City U21 | 3 | – | – | – | – | – | +2 | 6 |
| 11 | Hull City U21 | 2 | – | – | – | – | – | +3 | 4 |
| 12 | Swansea City U21 | 2 | – | – | – | – | – | +3 | 4 |
| 13 | Brentford U21 | 2 | – | – | – | – | – | +2 | 4 |
| 14 | Leeds United U21 | 3 | – | – | – | – | – | +1 | 4 |
| 15 | Ipswich Town U21 | 3 | – | – | – | – | – | 0 | 4 |
| 16 | West Bromwich Albion U21 | 3 | – | – | – | – | – | 0 | 4 |
| 17 | Preston North End U21 | 3 | – | – | – | – | – | 0 | 4 |
| 18 | Burnley U21 | 3 | – | – | – | – | – | -1 | 4 |
| 19 | Newcastle United U21 | 1 | – | – | – | – | – | +3 | 3 |
| 20 | Stockport County U21 | 3 | – | – | – | – | – | +1 | 3 |
| 21 | Bromley U21 | 2 | – | – | – | – | – | +1 | 3 |
| 22 | Sheffield United U21 | 2 | – | – | – | – | – | +1 | 3 |
| 23 | Peterborough United U21 | 2 | – | – | – | – | – | 0 | 3 |
| 24 | Birmingham City U21 | 3 | – | – | – | – | – | -1 | 3 |
| 25 | Coventry City U21 | 2 | – | – | – | – | – | -1 | 3 |
| 26 | Millwall U21 | 2 | – | – | – | – | – | -1 | 3 |
| 27 | Blackburn Rovers U21 | 2 | – | – | – | – | – | -2 | 3 |
| 28 | AFC Bournemouth U21 | 2 | – | – | – | – | – | -2 | 3 |
| 29 | Queens Park Rangers U21 | 3 | – | – | – | – | – | -3 | 3 |
| 30 | Stoke City U21 | 3 | – | – | – | – | – | -4 | 2 |
| 31 | Fleetwood Town U21 | 3 | – | – | – | – | – | -2 | 1 |
| 32 | Bolton Wanderers Res. | 2 | – | – | – | – | – | -3 | 1 |
| 33 | West Ham United U21 | 3 | – | – | – | – | – | -3 | 1 |
| 34 | Exeter U21 | 1 | – | – | – | – | – | -2 | 0 |
| 35 | Wycombe U21 | 1 | – | – | – | – | – | -2 | 0 |
| 36 | Plymouth U21 | 2 | – | – | – | – | – | -3 | 0 |
| 37 | Derby County U21 | 1 | – | – | – | – | – | -3 | 0 |
| 38 | Reading U21 | 3 | – | – | – | – | – | -6 | 0 |
| 39 | Gillingham FC U21 | 2 | – | – | – | – | – | -7 | 0 |
| 40 | Luton Town U21 | 3 | – | – | – | – | – | -9 | 0 |
| 0.00 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Last 10 (1) | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 0 |
|---|
| Away, last 5: none | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
|---|
| Away, last 10: none | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
|---|