Bugesera vs Etincelles prediction, Saturday 10 October: chances and analysisBack to today's picks
· Rwanda - National Soccer League
Bugesera v EtincellesHomevAwayHomevAway
No pick for this match: no market passed our rules.
Our model's chances
Chances of each result: Bugesera win 39%, Draw 33%, Etincelles win 27%.
Bugesera host Etincelles in the National Soccer League, Rwanda.
Our model gives Bugesera a 39% chance of winning, a draw 33% and Etincelles 27%.
The model expects Bugesera to score 1.0 goals and Etincelles 0.8.
Top factors
- Bugesera sit 17th with 0 points; Etincelles sit 2nd with 7 points.
- Bugesera have taken 0 points from their last 1 matches; Etincelles 7 from 3.
Chances and prices are from our nightly scan before the match. Nothing after that is used.
Key numbers, the table, form, head to head and more.
Our model's chance for each market. No bookmaker prices yet.
Yesterday: 4 of 4 picks won. See every pick
Today's picks
Today, Saturday 10 October
Times shown in your time (EDT)
Expected goals (our model)Bugesera 1.0, Etincelles 0.8 Context onlyTable position isn't in the model.
Where the teams sit in the National Soccer League, before kick-off.
Bugesera sit 17th with 0 points; Etincelles sit 2nd with 7. A gap of 3 in goal difference, in favour of Etincelles; Bugesera have played 2 fewer.
Stored before 7 October 2026: wins, draws, losses and goals were not kept.
- 1st Gicumbi9 points from 4 games · goal difference +2
- 2nd Etincelles7 points from 3 games · goal difference +2
- 3rd Gorilla6 points from 3 games · goal difference +1
- 16th Etoile de l'Est1 points from 3 games · goal difference -3
- 17th Bugesera0 points from 1 game · goal difference -1
- 18th Gasogi United0 points from 1 game · goal difference -2
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|
| 1 | Gicumbi | 4 | – | – | – | – | – | +2 | 9 |
| 2 | Etincelles | 3 | – | – | – | – | – | +2 | 7 |
| 3 | Gorilla | 3 | – | – | – | – | – | +1 | 6 |
| 16 | Etoile de l'Est | 3 | – | – | – | – | – | -3 | 1 |
| 17 | Bugesera | 1 | – | – | – | – | – | -1 | 0 |
| 18 | Gasogi United | 1 | – | – | – | – | – | -2 | 0 |
Show full tableShow less
- 1st Gicumbi9 points from 4 games · goal difference +2
- 2nd Etincelles7 points from 3 games · goal difference +2
- 3rd Gorilla6 points from 3 games · goal difference +1
- 4th Amagaju4 points from 3 games · goal difference +1
- 5th AS Kigali4 points from 4 games · goal difference -3
- 6th APR3 points from 1 game · goal difference +2
- 7th Al Hilal Omdurman3 points from 1 game · goal difference +2
- 8th Mukura3 points from 2 games · goal difference +1
- 9th Marines3 points from 2 games · goal difference 0
- 10th Police3 points from 2 games · goal difference 0
- 11th Musanze3 points from 2 games · goal difference 0
Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.
Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.
Insufficient historical data. Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
LLostat Kiyovu Sports15 Sept 2026 · National Soccer League · Away0–1
Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.
Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.
Insufficient historical data. Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
WWonv Musanze15 Sept 2026 · National Soccer League · Home1–0
WWonat Gorilla12 Sept 2026 · National Soccer League · Away1–0
DDrewv Sunrise5 Sept 2026 · National Soccer League · Home0–0
In the modelThe model rates each team's home and away records separately.
The last 5 and 10 matches, then Bugesera at home and Etincelles away only: a home fixture is read from home matches where there are enough.
Insufficient historical data. Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
Bugesera
- Last 5 (1)0 won, 0 drawn, 1 lost · 0 scored, 1 conceded · 0.00 points a game · 0 clean sheets · failed to score in 1
- Last 10 (1)0 won, 0 drawn, 1 lost · 0 scored, 1 conceded · 0.00 points a game · 0 clean sheets · failed to score in 1
- Home, last 5: none
- Home, last 10: none
Bugesera| Sample | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | CS | FTS |
|---|
| Last 5 (1) | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 1 |
|---|
| Last 10 (1) | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 1 |
|---|
| Home, last 5: none | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
|---|
| Home, last 10: none | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
|---|
Etincelles
- Last 5 (3)2 won, 1 drawn, 0 lost · 2 scored, 0 conceded · 2.33 points a game · 3 clean sheets · failed to score in 1
- Last 10 (3)2 won, 1 drawn, 0 lost · 2 scored, 0 conceded · 2.33 points a game · 3 clean sheets · failed to score in 1
- Away, last 5 (1)1 won, 0 drawn, 0 lost · 1 scored, 0 conceded · 3.00 points a game · 1 clean sheet · failed to score in 0
- Away, last 10 (1)1 won, 0 drawn, 0 lost · 1 scored, 0 conceded · 3.00 points a game · 1 clean sheet · failed to score in 0
Etincelles| Sample | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | CS | FTS |
|---|
| Last 5 (3) | 3 | 2 |
|---|
Bugesera at home: Data unavailable.
Etincelles away: Insufficient historical data. Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
Context onlyShown for context. The model's own ratings come from goals scored and conceded this season and last.
| Measure | Bugesera | Etincelles |
|---|
| League position | 17th | 2nd |
|---|
| Points per game | 0.00 | 2.33 |
|---|
| Attack: goals per game (last 1 and 3) | 0.00 | 0.67 |
|---|
| Defence: conceded per game (last 1 and 3) | 1.00 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Clean sheets | 0 | 3 |
|---|
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
In the modelMissing players move the model's expected goals, chiefly a missing top scorer.
Players out or doubtful, as reported the night before.
Showing the top 20 of 26 picks, in kick-off order. 6 more are under Show all.Updating…
Starting in 3 to 6 hours (12)
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 71%
Average price 1.32
GENGenoaLLWDLFIOFiorentinaDWWLL
Last 5 games
· Italy - Serie A
Each of Fiorentina's last 5 league matches had two or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 93%
Average price 1.03
AUGFC AugsburgDLDWWBMUBayern MünchenWWWD
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 85%
Average price 1.10
HOF1899 HoffenheimLLWLLHAMHamburger SVWWLL
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 87%
Average price 1.07
PADSC Paderborn 07WWLLDVSTVfB StuttgartWWLL
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 82%
Average price 1.13
UBEUnion BerlinWLLLDELVSV ElversbergLDLW
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 84%
Average price 1.11
FMAFSV Mainz 05WWLWDBLEBayer LeverkusenWWDW
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 83%
Average price 1.13
CHEChelseaLDWLWBOUBournemouthLWDW
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 79%
Average price 1.18
MIDMiddlesbroughDDWLWWOLWolvesWLWD
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 75%
Average price 1.25
PREPrestonDLLWLMILMillwallDDLL
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 86%
Average price 1.08
RANRangersWWWWWKILKilmarnockDWDD
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 75%
Average price 1.25
ALAAlavesDLLWWAMAAtletico MadridWWWL
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 85%
Average price 1.09
GAEGO Ahead EaglesDDDLWSROSparta RotterdamLLDL
Starting later (8)
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 86%
Average price 1.08
INTInterWDWLWPARParmaWLD
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|
| 1 | Gicumbi | 4 | – | – | – | – | – | +2 | 9 |
| 2 | Etincelles | 3 | – | – | – | – | – | +2 | 7 |
| 3 | Gorilla | 3 | – | – | – | – | – | +1 | 6 |
| 4 | Amagaju | 3 | – | – | – | – | – | +1 | 4 |
| 5 | AS Kigali | 4 | – | – | – | – | – | -3 | 4 |
| 6 | APR | 1 | – | – | – | – | – | +2 | 3 |
| 7 | Al Hilal Omdurman | 1 | – | – | – | – | – | +2 | 3 |
| 8 | Mukura | 2 | – | – | – | – | – | +1 | 3 |
| 9 | Marines | 2 | – | – | – | – | – | 0 | 3 |
| 10 | Police | 2 | – | – | – | – | – | 0 | 3 |
| 11 | Musanze | 2 | – | – | – | – | – | 0 | 3 |
| 12 | Kiyovu Sports | 3 | – | – | – | – | – | -1 | 3 |
| 13 | Sunrise | 2 | – | – | – | – | – | 0 | 2 |
| 14 | Al Merreikh | 1 | – | – | – | – | – | 0 | 1 |
| 15 | Rayon Sports | 2 | – | – | – | – | – | -1 | 1 |
| 16 | Etoile de l'Est | 3 | – | – | – | – | – | -3 | 1 |
| 17 | Bugesera | 1 | – | – | – | – | – | -1 | 0 |
| 18 | Gasogi United | 1 | – | – | – | – | – | -2 | 0 |
| Last 10 (3) | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | +2 | 7 | 2.33 | 3 | 1 |
|---|
| Away, last 5 (1) | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 3 | 3.00 | 1 | 0 |
|---|
| Away, last 10 (1) | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 3 | 3.00 | 1 | 0 |
|---|
W
· Germany - Bundesliga
Each of FC Augsburg's last 4 league matches had three or more goals.
L
· Germany - Bundesliga
Each of 1899 Hoffenheim's last 4 league matches had three or more goals.
W
· Germany - Bundesliga
3 of VfB Stuttgart's last 4 league matches had two or more goals.
W
· Germany - Bundesliga
Each of Union Berlin's last 4 league matches had three or more goals.
L
· Germany - Bundesliga
Each of Bayer Leverkusen's last 4 league matches had two or more goals.
D
· England - Premier League
Each of Chelsea's last 5 league matches had three or more goals.
L
· England - Championship
Each of Middlesbrough's last 4 home matches had three or more goals.
W
· England - Championship
Each of Millwall's last 8 league matches had two or more goals.
L
· Scotland - Premiership
The model expects Rangers to score 1.9 goals and Kilmarnock 0.9.
L
· Spain - La Liga
Each of Atletico Madrid's last 7 league matches had two or more goals.
D
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
Each of GO Ahead Eagles's last 7 league matches had two or more goals.
L
L
· Italy - Serie A
Each of Parma's last 4 league matches had two or more goals.
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 88%
Average price 1.05
RLERB LeipzigLWLLWEFREintracht FrankfurtWDWLD
Last 5 games
· Germany - Bundesliga
Each of RB Leipzig's last 4 league matches had two or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 83%
Average price 1.12
MANManchester UnitedDLLWDTOTTottenhamLLDDL
Last 5 games
· England - Premier League
4 of Manchester United's last 5 league matches had two or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 85%
Average price 1.10
FEYFeyenoordWWLWDAALAZ AlkmaarWLDWW
Last 5 games
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
Each of Feyenoord's last 6 league matches had three or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 74%
Average price 1.25
MARMaritimoDLLLDPORFC PortoWWWLW
Last 5 games
· Portugal - Primeira Liga
Each of FC Porto's last 7 league matches had two or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 86%
Average price 1.09
FSIFortuna SittardWWLWWTWETwenteWWWWD
Last 5 games
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
Each of Fortuna Sittard's last 3 home matches had two or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 88%
Average price 1.06
AJAAjaxDWWLWNNINEC NijmegenDLLDL
Last 5 games
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
Each of Ajax's last 7 league matches had two or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 88%
Average price 1.05
RMAReal MadridLWWWLVILVillarrealWWLLL
Last 5 games
· Spain - La Liga
Each of Villarreal's last 4 league matches had three or more goals.
See the full analysis