Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
78%win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 71%
Average price 1.32
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Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
78%win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 71%
Average price 1.32
· Poland - III Liga - Group 4
No pick for this match: no market passed our rules.
Chances of each result: Chełmianka Chełm win 60%, Draw 23%, Star Starachowice win 17%.
Last 5 games
· Italy - Serie A
Each of Fiorentina's last 5 league matches had two or more goals.
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
87%win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 93%
Average price 1.03
Last 5 games
· Germany - Bundesliga
Each of FC Augsburg's last 4 league matches had three or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
85%win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 85%
Average price 1.10
Last 5 games
· Germany - Bundesliga
Each of 1899 Hoffenheim's last 4 league matches had three or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
84%win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 87%
Average price 1.07
Last 5 games
· Germany - Bundesliga
3 of VfB Stuttgart's last 4 league matches had two or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
83%win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 82%
Average price 1.13
Last 5 games
· Germany - Bundesliga
Each of Union Berlin's last 4 league matches had three or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
81%win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 84%
Average price 1.11
Last 5 games
· Germany - Bundesliga
Each of Bayer Leverkusen's last 4 league matches had two or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
80%win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 83%
Average price 1.13
Last 5 games
· England - Premier League
Each of Chelsea's last 5 league matches had three or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
80%win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 79%
Average price 1.18
Last 5 games
· England - Championship
Each of Middlesbrough's last 4 home matches had three or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
77%win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 75%
Average price 1.25
Last 5 games
· England - Championship
Each of Millwall's last 8 league matches had two or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
77%win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 86%
Average price 1.08
Last 5 games
· Scotland - Premiership
The model expects Rangers to score 1.9 goals and Kilmarnock 0.9.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
77%win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 75%
Average price 1.25
Last 5 games
· Spain - La Liga
Each of Atletico Madrid's last 7 league matches had two or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
85%win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 85%
Average price 1.09
Last 5 games
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
Each of GO Ahead Eagles's last 7 league matches had two or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
81%win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 86%
Average price 1.08
Last 5 games
· Italy - Serie A
Each of Parma's last 4 league matches had two or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
89%win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 88%
Average price 1.05
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
78%win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 83%
Average price 1.12
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
85%win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 85%
Average price 1.10
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
78%win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 74%
Average price 1.25
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
85%win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 86%
Average price 1.09
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
86%win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 88%
Average price 1.06
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
83%win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 88%
Average price 1.05
Chełmianka Chełm host Star Starachowice in the III Liga - Group 4, Poland.
Our model gives Chełmianka Chełm a 60% chance of winning, a draw 23% and Star Starachowice 17%.
The model expects Chełmianka Chełm to score 1.8 goals and Star Starachowice 0.7.
Chełmianka Chełm have won 3 of their last 6 league matches; Star Starachowice have won 1 of 6.
Chances and prices are from our nightly scan before the match. Nothing after that is used.
Our model's chance for each market. No bookmaker prices yet.
Context onlyTable position isn't in the model.
Where the teams sit in the III Liga - Group 4, before kick-off.
Chełmianka Chełm sit 1st with 27 points; Star Starachowice sit 15th with 11. A gap of 17 in goal difference, in favour of Chełmianka Chełm.
Stored before 7 October 2026: wins, draws, losses and goals were not kept.
| # | Team | P | W |
|---|
Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.
Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.
Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
In the modelThe model rates each team's home and away records separately.
The last 5 and 10 matches, then Chełmianka Chełm at home and Star Starachowice away only: a home fixture is read from home matches where there are enough.
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
| Sample | P | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|
Context onlyShown for context. The model's own ratings come from goals scored and conceded this season and last.
| Measure | Chełmianka Chełm | Star Starachowice |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 1st | 15th |
| Points per game | 2.45 | 1.00 |
| Attack: goals per game (last 6 and 6) | 1.33 | 1.33 |
| Defence: conceded per game (last 6 and 6) | 0.67 | 1.50 |
| Clean sheets | 3 | 2 |
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
In the modelMissing players move the model's expected goals, chiefly a missing top scorer.
Players out or doubtful, as reported the night before.
None reported.
None reported.
Last 5 games
· Germany - Bundesliga
Each of RB Leipzig's last 4 league matches had two or more goals.
Last 5 games
· England - Premier League
4 of Manchester United's last 5 league matches had two or more goals.
Last 5 games
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
Each of Feyenoord's last 6 league matches had three or more goals.
Last 5 games
· Portugal - Primeira Liga
Each of FC Porto's last 7 league matches had two or more goals.
Last 5 games
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
Each of Fortuna Sittard's last 3 home matches had two or more goals.
Last 5 games
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
Each of Ajax's last 7 league matches had two or more goals.
Last 5 games
· Spain - La Liga
Each of Villarreal's last 4 league matches had three or more goals.
| L |
|---|
| GF |
|---|
| GA |
|---|
| GD |
|---|
| Pts |
|---|
| 1 | Chełmianka Chełm | 11 | – | – | – | – | – | +13 | 27 |
| 2 | Wisłoka Dębica | 11 | – | – | – | – | – | +3 | 22 |
| 14 | Korona Kielce II | 11 | – | – | – | – | – | -4 | 11 |
| 15 | Star Starachowice | 11 | – | – | – | – | – | -4 | 11 |
| 16 | KS Wieczysta Krakow II | 11 | – | – | – | – | – | -4 | 11 |
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chełmianka Chełm | 11 | – | – | – | – | – | +13 | 27 |
| 2 | Wisłoka Dębica | 11 | – | – | – | – | – | +3 | 22 |
| 3 | Wiślanie Jaśkowice | 12 | – | – | – | – | – | +7 | 20 |
| 4 | KSZO 1929 | 11 |
| GD |
|---|
| Pts |
|---|
| PPG |
|---|
| CS |
|---|
| FTS |
|---|
| Last 5 (5) | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 4 | +3 | 9 | 1.80 | 2 | 1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 10 (6) | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 8 | 4 | +4 | 12 | 2.00 | 3 | 1 |
| Home, last 5 (3) | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 2 | +2 | 7 | 2.33 | 1 | 0 |
| Home, last 10 (3) | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 2 | +2 | 7 | 2.33 | 1 | 0 |
| Sample | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | CS | FTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (5) | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 6 | +2 | 6 | 1.20 | 2 | 2 |
| Last 10 (6) | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 8 | 9 | -1 | 6 | 1.00 | 2 | 3 |
| Away, last 5 (4) | 4 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 3 | 0.75 | 2 | 3 |
| Away, last 10 (4) | 4 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 3 | 0.75 | 2 | 3 |
Chełmianka Chełm at home: Insufficient historical data. Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
Star Starachowice away: Insufficient historical data. Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
| – |
| – |
| – |
| – |
| – |
| +7 |
| 20 |
| 5 | Naprzód | 11 | – | – | – | – | – | +6 | 20 |
| 6 | Czarni Połaniec | 11 | – | – | – | – | – | +2 | 20 |
| 7 | Jarosław | 11 | – | – | – | – | – | +7 | 17 |
| 8 | Hetman Zamosc | 11 | – | – | – | – | – | 0 | 14 |
| 9 | Busko-Zdroj | 11 | – | – | – | – | – | -4 | 14 |
| 10 | Siarka Tarnobrzeg | 12 | – | – | – | – | – | -4 | 14 |
| 11 | Sokół Kolb. | 11 | – | – | – | – | – | 0 | 13 |
| 12 | Wisła Kraków II | 11 | – | – | – | – | – | -3 | 13 |
| 13 | Podlasie Biała Podlaska | 11 | – | – | – | – | – | -3 | 12 |
| 14 | Korona Kielce II | 11 | – | – | – | – | – | -4 | 11 |
| 15 | Star Starachowice | 11 | – | – | – | – | – | -4 | 11 |
| 16 | KS Wieczysta Krakow II | 11 | – | – | – | – | – | -4 | 11 |
| 17 | Moravia Morawica | 11 | – | – | – | – | – | -9 | 8 |
| 18 | Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów | 11 | – | – | – | – | – | -10 | 7 |