Chester vs Bedford Town prediction, Saturday 10 October: chances and analysisBack to today's picks
· England - National League - North
Chester v Bedford TownHomevAwayHomevAway
No pick for this match: no market passed our rules.
Our model's chances
Chances of each result: Chester win 49%, Draw 27%, Bedford Town win 25%.
Chester host Bedford Town in the National League - North, England.
Our model gives Chester a 49% chance of winning, a draw 27% and Bedford Town 25%.
The model expects Chester to score 1.5 goals and Bedford Town 1.0.
Chester have won 1 of their last 6 league matches; Bedford Town have won 4 of 6.
Top factors
- Chester sit 7th with 17 points; Bedford Town sit 10th with 16 points.
- Chester have taken 4 points from their last 5 matches; Bedford Town 10 from 5.
- At home, Chester have taken 3 points from their last 3; away, Bedford Town have taken 6 from their last 3.
Chances and prices are from our nightly scan before the match. Nothing after that is used.
Key numbers, the table, form, head to head and more.
Our model's chance for each market, with the bookmakers' average price.
- Chester win
- 49% · price 1.58
Yesterday: 4 of 4 picks won. See every pick
Today's picks
Today, Saturday 10 October
Times shown in your time (EDT)
Bedford Town win25% · price 4.79 Over 1.5 goals72% · price 1.20 Over 2.5 goals48% · price 1.67 Both teams score50% · price 1.71 Expected goals (our model)Chester 1.5, Bedford Town 1.0 Context onlyTable position isn't in the model.
Where the teams sit in the National League - North, before kick-off.
Chester sit 7th with 17 points; Bedford Town sit 10th with 16. A gap of 4 in goal difference, in favour of Chester.
Stored before 7 October 2026: wins, draws, losses and goals were not kept.
- 6th Spalding United17 points from 10 games · goal difference +6
- 7th Chester17 points from 10 games · goal difference +4
- 8th King's Lynn Town16 points from 10 games · goal difference +5
- 9th Buxton16 points from 10 games · goal difference 0
- 10th Bedford Town16 points from 10 games · goal difference 0
- 11th Morecambe14 points from 10 games · goal difference +5
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|
| 6 | Spalding United | 10 | – | – | – | – | – | +6 | 17 |
| 7 | Chester | 10 | – | – | – | – | – | +4 | 17 |
| 8 | King's Lynn Town | 10 | – | – | – | – | – | +5 | 16 |
| 9 | Buxton | 10 | – | – | – | – | – | 0 | 16 |
| 10 | Bedford Town | 10 | – | – | – | – | – | 0 | 16 |
| 11 | Morecambe | 10 | – | – | – | – | – | +5 |
Show full tableShow less
- 1st Hereford23 points from 10 games · goal difference +17
- 2nd Macclesfield21 points from 10 games · goal difference +7
- 3rd Oxford City20 points from 10 games · goal difference +11
- 4th South Shields20 points from 10 games · goal difference +2
- 5th Hebburn Town18 points from 10 games · goal difference 0
- 6th Spalding United17 points from 10 games · goal difference +6
- 7th Chester17 points from 10 games · goal difference +4
- 8th King's Lynn Town16 points from 10 games · goal difference +5
- 9th Buxton16 points from 10 games · goal difference 0
- 10th Bedford Town16 points from 10 games · goal difference 0
- 11th Morecambe
Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.
Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
WWonv Worksop Town26 Sept 2026 · National League - North · Home4–1
LLostat Buxton12 Sept 2026 · National League - North · Away1–3
LLostv Merthyr Town8 Sept 2026 · National League - North · Home0–1
DDrewat Hebburn Town5 Sept 2026 · National League - North · Away1–1
LLostv Morecambe31 Aug 2026 · National League - North · Home0–1
Show last 6 matchesShowing 6
DDrewat Hereford29 Aug 2026 · National League - North · Away1–1
Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.
Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
DDrewv Hereford26 Sept 2026 · National League - North · Home1–1
LLostat Spalding United12 Sept 2026 · National League - North · Away1–2
WWonat Worksop Town8 Sept 2026 · National League - North · Away2–1
WWonv Radcliffe5 Sept 2026 · National League - North · Home1–0
WWonat AFC Telford United31 Aug 2026 · National League - North · Away1–0
Show last 6 matchesShowing 6
WWonv Spennymoor Town29 Aug 2026 · National League - North · Home3–1
In the modelThe model rates each team's home and away records separately.
The last 5 and 10 matches, then Chester at home and Bedford Town away only: a home fixture is read from home matches where there are enough.
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
Chester
- Last 5 (5)1 won, 1 drawn, 3 lost · 6 scored, 7 conceded · 0.80 points a game · 0 clean sheets · failed to score in 2
- Last 10 (6)1 won, 2 drawn, 3 lost · 7 scored, 8 conceded · 0.83 points a game · 0 clean sheets · failed to score in 2
- Home, last 5 (3)1 won, 0 drawn, 2 lost · 4 scored, 3 conceded · 1.00 points a game · 0 clean sheets · failed to score in 2
- Home, last 10 (3)1 won, 0 drawn, 2 lost · 4 scored, 3 conceded · 1.00 points a game · 0 clean sheets · failed to score in 2
Chester| Sample | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | CS | FTS |
|---|
| Last 5 (5) | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 7 | -1 | 4 | 0.80 | 0 | 2 |
|---|
| Last 10 (6) | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 8 | -1 | 5 | 0.83 | 0 | 2 |
|---|
| Home, last 5 (3) | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 3 | +1 | 3 | 1.00 | 0 | 2 |
|---|
| Home, last 10 (3) | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 3 | +1 | 3 | 1.00 | 0 | 2 |
|---|
Bedford Town
- Last 5 (5)3 won, 1 drawn, 1 lost · 6 scored, 4 conceded · 2.00 points a game · 2 clean sheets · failed to score in 0
- Last 10 (6)4 won, 1 drawn, 1 lost · 9 scored, 5 conceded · 2.17 points a game · 2 clean sheets · failed to score in 0
- Away, last 5 (3)2 won, 0 drawn, 1 lost · 4 scored, 3 conceded · 2.00 points a game · 1 clean sheet · failed to score in 0
- Away, last 10 (3)2 won, 0 drawn, 1 lost · 4 scored, 3 conceded · 2.00 points a game · 1 clean sheet · failed to score in 0
Bedford Town| Sample | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | CS | FTS |
|---|
| Last 5 (5) | 5 | 3 |
|---|
Chester at home: Insufficient historical data. Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
Bedford Town away: Insufficient historical data. Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
Context onlyShown for context. The model's own ratings come from goals scored and conceded this season and last.
| Measure | Chester | Bedford Town |
|---|
| League position | 7th | 10th |
|---|
| Points per game | 1.70 | 1.60 |
|---|
| Attack: goals per game (last 6 and 6) | 1.17 | 1.50 |
|---|
| Defence: conceded per game (last 6 and 6) | 1.33 | 0.83 |
|---|
| Clean sheets | 0 | 2 |
|---|
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
In the modelMissing players move the model's expected goals, chiefly a missing top scorer.
Players out or doubtful, as reported the night before.
Bedford Town
None reported.
Context onlyFacts pointing the other way. The model doesn't read them.
Evidence pointing the other way.
- Bedford Town have the better recent form: 10 points from 5 against 4 from 5.
Showing the top 20 of 26 picks, in kick-off order. 6 more are under Show all.Updating…
Starting in 3 to 6 hours (12)
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 71%
Average price 1.32
GENGenoaLLWDLFIOFiorentinaDWWLL
Last 5 games
· Italy - Serie A
Each of Fiorentina's last 5 league matches had two or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 93%
Average price 1.03
AUGFC AugsburgDLDWWBMUBayern MünchenWWWD
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 85%
Average price 1.10
HOF1899 HoffenheimLLWLLHAMHamburger SVWWLL
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 87%
Average price 1.07
PADSC Paderborn 07WWLLDVSTVfB StuttgartWWLL
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 82%
Average price 1.13
UBEUnion BerlinWLLLDELVSV ElversbergLDLW
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 84%
Average price 1.11
FMAFSV Mainz 05WWLWDBLEBayer LeverkusenWWDW
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 83%
Average price 1.13
CHEChelseaLDWLWBOUBournemouthLWDW
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 79%
Average price 1.18
MIDMiddlesbroughDDWLWWOLWolvesWLWD
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 75%
Average price 1.25
PREPrestonDLLWLMILMillwallDDLL
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 86%
Average price 1.08
RANRangersWWWWWKILKilmarnockDWDD
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 75%
Average price 1.25
ALAAlavesDLLWWAMAAtletico MadridWWWL
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 85%
Average price 1.09
GAEGO Ahead EaglesDDDLWSROSparta RotterdamLLDL
Starting later (8)
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 86%
Average price 1.08
INTInterWDWLWPARParmaWLD
14 points from 10 games · goal difference +5
12th Chorley14 points from 10 games · goal difference -113th Merthyr Town13 points from 10 games · goal difference +114th Scarborough Athletic12 points from 10 games · goal difference +315th Hednesford Town12 points from 10 games · goal difference 016th Marine12 points from 10 games · goal difference 017th Harborough Town12 points from 10 games · goal difference -218th Worksop Town12 points from 10 games · goal difference -619th Brackley Town12 points from 10 games · goal difference -820th Southport9 points from 10 games · goal difference -721st AFC Telford United9 points from 10 games · goal difference -722nd Darlington 18837 points from 10 games · goal difference -923rd Spennymoor Town7 points from 10 games · goal difference -1024th Radcliffe6 points from 10 games · goal difference -11| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|
| 1 | Hereford | 10 | – | – | – | – | – | +17 | 23 |
| 2 | Macclesfield | 10 | – | – | – | – | – | +7 | 21 |
| 3 | Oxford City | 10 | – | – | – | – | – | +11 | 20 |
| 4 | South Shields | 10 | – | – | – | – | – | +2 | 20 |
| 5 | Hebburn Town | 10 | – | – | – | – | – | 0 | 18 |
| 6 | Spalding United | 10 | – | – | – | – | – | +6 | 17 |
| 7 | Chester | 10 | – | – | – | – | – | +4 | 17 |
| 8 | King's Lynn Town | 10 | – | – | – | – | – | +5 | 16 |
| 9 | Buxton | 10 | – | – | – | – | – | 0 | 16 |
| 10 | Bedford Town | 10 | – | – | – | – | – | 0 | 16 |
| 11 | Morecambe | 10 | – | – | – | – | – | +5 | 14 |
| 12 | Chorley | 10 | – | – | – | – | – | -1 | 14 |
| 13 | Merthyr Town | 10 | – | – | – | – | – | +1 | 13 |
| 14 | Scarborough Athletic | 10 | – | – | – | – | – | +3 | 12 |
| 15 | Hednesford Town | 10 | – | – | – | – | – | 0 | 12 |
| 16 | Marine | 10 | – | – | – | – | – | 0 | 12 |
| 17 | Harborough Town | 10 | – | – | – | – | – | -2 | 12 |
| 18 | Worksop Town | 10 | – | – | – | – | – | -6 | 12 |
| 19 | Brackley Town | 10 | – | – | – | – | – | -8 | 12 |
| 20 | Southport | 10 | – | – | – | – | – | -7 | 9 |
| 21 | AFC Telford United | 10 | – | – | – | – | – | -7 | 9 |
| 22 | Darlington 1883 | 10 | – | – | – | – | – | -9 | 7 |
| 23 | Spennymoor Town | 10 | – | – | – | – | – | -10 | 7 |
| 24 | Radcliffe | 10 | – | – | – | – | – | -11 | 6 |
| Last 10 (6) | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 5 | +4 | 13 | 2.17 | 2 | 0 |
|---|
| Away, last 5 (3) | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3 | +1 | 6 | 2.00 | 1 | 0 |
|---|
| Away, last 10 (3) | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3 | +1 | 6 | 2.00 | 1 | 0 |
|---|
W
· Germany - Bundesliga
Each of FC Augsburg's last 4 league matches had three or more goals.
L
· Germany - Bundesliga
Each of 1899 Hoffenheim's last 4 league matches had three or more goals.
W
· Germany - Bundesliga
3 of VfB Stuttgart's last 4 league matches had two or more goals.
W
· Germany - Bundesliga
Each of Union Berlin's last 4 league matches had three or more goals.
L
· Germany - Bundesliga
Each of Bayer Leverkusen's last 4 league matches had two or more goals.
D
· England - Premier League
Each of Chelsea's last 5 league matches had three or more goals.
L
· England - Championship
Each of Middlesbrough's last 4 home matches had three or more goals.
W
· England - Championship
Each of Millwall's last 8 league matches had two or more goals.
L
· Scotland - Premiership
The model expects Rangers to score 1.9 goals and Kilmarnock 0.9.
L
· Spain - La Liga
Each of Atletico Madrid's last 7 league matches had two or more goals.
D
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
Each of GO Ahead Eagles's last 7 league matches had two or more goals.
L
L
· Italy - Serie A
Each of Parma's last 4 league matches had two or more goals.
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 88%
Average price 1.05
RLERB LeipzigLWLLWEFREintracht FrankfurtWDWLD
Last 5 games
· Germany - Bundesliga
Each of RB Leipzig's last 4 league matches had two or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 83%
Average price 1.12
MANManchester UnitedDLLWDTOTTottenhamLLDDL
Last 5 games
· England - Premier League
4 of Manchester United's last 5 league matches had two or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 85%
Average price 1.10
FEYFeyenoordWWLWDAALAZ AlkmaarWLDWW
Last 5 games
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
Each of Feyenoord's last 6 league matches had three or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 74%
Average price 1.25
MARMaritimoDLLLDPORFC PortoWWWLW
Last 5 games
· Portugal - Primeira Liga
Each of FC Porto's last 7 league matches had two or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 86%
Average price 1.09
FSIFortuna SittardWWLWWTWETwenteWWWWD
Last 5 games
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
Each of Fortuna Sittard's last 3 home matches had two or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 88%
Average price 1.06
AJAAjaxDWWLWNNINEC NijmegenDLLDL
Last 5 games
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
Each of Ajax's last 7 league matches had two or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 88%
Average price 1.05
RMAReal MadridLWWWLVILVillarrealWWLLL
Last 5 games
· Spain - La Liga
Each of Villarreal's last 4 league matches had three or more goals.
See the full analysis