Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
78%win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 71%
Average price 1.32
GenoaFiorentina
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Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
78%win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 71%
Average price 1.32
· USA - Major League Soccer
No pick for this match: no market passed our rules.
Chances of each result: Chicago Fire win 44%, Draw 25%, New York City FC win 31%.
Last 5 games
· Italy - Serie A
Each of Fiorentina's last 5 league matches had two or more goals.
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
87%win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 93%
Average price 1.03
Last 5 games
· Germany - Bundesliga
Each of FC Augsburg's last 4 league matches had three or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
85%win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 85%
Average price 1.10
Last 5 games
· Germany - Bundesliga
Each of 1899 Hoffenheim's last 4 league matches had three or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
84%win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 87%
Average price 1.07
Last 5 games
· Germany - Bundesliga
3 of VfB Stuttgart's last 4 league matches had two or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
83%win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 82%
Average price 1.13
Last 5 games
· Germany - Bundesliga
Each of Union Berlin's last 4 league matches had three or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
81%win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 84%
Average price 1.11
Last 5 games
· Germany - Bundesliga
Each of Bayer Leverkusen's last 4 league matches had two or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
80%win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 83%
Average price 1.13
Last 5 games
· England - Premier League
Each of Chelsea's last 5 league matches had three or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
80%win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 79%
Average price 1.18
Last 5 games
· England - Championship
Each of Middlesbrough's last 4 home matches had three or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
77%win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 75%
Average price 1.25
Last 5 games
· England - Championship
Each of Millwall's last 8 league matches had two or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
77%win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 86%
Average price 1.08
Last 5 games
· Scotland - Premiership
The model expects Rangers to score 1.9 goals and Kilmarnock 0.9.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
77%win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 75%
Average price 1.25
Last 5 games
· Spain - La Liga
Each of Atletico Madrid's last 7 league matches had two or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
85%win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 85%
Average price 1.09
Last 5 games
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
Each of GO Ahead Eagles's last 7 league matches had two or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
81%win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 86%
Average price 1.08
Last 5 games
· Italy - Serie A
Each of Parma's last 4 league matches had two or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
89%win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 88%
Average price 1.05
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
78%win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 83%
Average price 1.12
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
85%win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 85%
Average price 1.10
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
78%win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 74%
Average price 1.25
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
85%win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 86%
Average price 1.09
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
86%win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 88%
Average price 1.06
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
83%win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 88%
Average price 1.05
Chicago Fire host New York City FC in the Major League Soccer, USA.
Our model gives Chicago Fire a 44% chance of winning, a draw 25% and New York City FC 31%.
The model expects Chicago Fire to score 1.6 goals and New York City FC 1.3.
Chicago Fire have won 2 of their last 6 league matches; New York City FC have won 1 of 6.
Chances and prices are from our nightly scan before the match. Nothing after that is used.
Our model's chance for each market, with the bookmakers' average price.
Context onlyFacts that explain the pick. The model doesn't read them.
Worked out from the stored data, never estimated.
Context onlyTable position isn't in the model.
Where the teams sit in the Major League Soccer, before kick-off.
Chicago Fire sit 7th with 45 points; New York City FC sit 17th with 33. A gap of 5 in goal difference, in favour of Chicago Fire.
Stored before 7 October 2026: wins, draws, losses and goals were not kept.
| # | Team |
|---|
Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.
Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.
Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
In the modelThe model rates each team's home and away records separately.
The last 5 and 10 matches, then Chicago Fire at home and New York City FC away only: a home fixture is read from home matches where there are enough.
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
| Sample | P | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|
Context onlyShown for context. The model's own ratings come from goals scored and conceded this season and last.
| Measure | Chicago Fire | New York City FC |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 7th | 17th |
| Points per game | 1.67 | 1.22 |
| Attack: goals per game (last 6 and 6) | 1.67 | 1.00 |
| Defence: conceded per game (last 6 and 6) | 1.83 | 1.00 |
| Clean sheets | 1 | 2 |
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
In the modelMissing players move the model's expected goals, chiefly a missing top scorer.
Players out or doubtful, as reported the night before.
Last 5 games
· Germany - Bundesliga
Each of RB Leipzig's last 4 league matches had two or more goals.
Last 5 games
· England - Premier League
4 of Manchester United's last 5 league matches had two or more goals.
Last 5 games
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
Each of Feyenoord's last 6 league matches had three or more goals.
Last 5 games
· Portugal - Primeira Liga
Each of FC Porto's last 7 league matches had two or more goals.
Last 5 games
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
Each of Fortuna Sittard's last 3 home matches had two or more goals.
Last 5 games
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
Each of Ajax's last 7 league matches had two or more goals.
Last 5 games
· Spain - La Liga
Each of Villarreal's last 4 league matches had three or more goals.
| P |
|---|
| W |
|---|
| D |
|---|
| L |
|---|
| GF |
|---|
| GA |
|---|
| GD |
|---|
| Pts |
|---|
| 6 | New England Revolution | 27 | – | – | – | – | – | +9 | 46 |
| 7 | Chicago Fire | 27 | – | – | – | – | – | +10 | 45 |
| 8 | San Jose Earthquakes | 27 | – | – | – | – | – | +10 | 45 |
| 16 | Orlando City SC | 27 | – | – | – | – | – | -16 | 34 |
| 17 | New York City FC | 27 | – | – | – | – | – | +5 | 33 |
| 18 | FC Cincinnati | 26 | – | – | – | – | – | -9 | 33 |
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nashville SC | 27 | – | – | – | – | – | +34 | 60 |
| 2 | Vancouver Whitecaps | 27 | – | – | – | – | – | +31 | 50 |
| 3 | St. Louis City | 27 | – | – | – | – | – | +12 | 47 |
| 4 | FC Dallas | 27 |
| Pts |
|---|
| PPG |
|---|
| CS |
|---|
| FTS |
|---|
| Last 5 (5) | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 7 | -1 | 7 | 1.40 | 1 | 1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 10 (6) | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 11 | -1 | 8 | 1.33 | 1 | 1 |
| Home, last 5 (3) | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 4 | +1 | 4 | 1.33 | 0 | 0 |
| Home, last 10 (3) | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 4 | +1 | 4 | 1.33 | 0 | 0 |
| Sample | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | CS | FTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (5) | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 1.00 | 2 | 2 |
| Last 10 (6) | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 6 | 1.00 | 2 | 2 |
| Away, last 5 (3) | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 3 | +2 | 5 | 1.67 | 1 | 0 |
| Away, last 10 (3) | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 3 | +2 | 5 | 1.67 | 1 | 0 |
Chicago Fire at home: Insufficient historical data. Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
New York City FC away: Insufficient historical data. Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
| – |
| – |
| – |
| – |
| – |
| +8 |
| 47 |
| 5 | Inter Miami | 27 | – | – | – | – | – | +14 | 46 |
| 6 | New England Revolution | 27 | – | – | – | – | – | +9 | 46 |
| 7 | Chicago Fire | 27 | – | – | – | – | – | +10 | 45 |
| 8 | San Jose Earthquakes | 27 | – | – | – | – | – | +10 | 45 |
| 9 | Houston Dynamo | 27 | – | – | – | – | – | +2 | 44 |
| 10 | Charlotte | 27 | – | – | – | – | – | +9 | 43 |
| 11 | Los Angeles FC | 28 | – | – | – | – | – | +13 | 41 |
| 12 | Philadelphia Union | 27 | – | – | – | – | – | +10 | 39 |
| 13 | Seattle Sounders | 27 | – | – | – | – | – | 0 | 38 |
| 14 | Colorado Rapids | 27 | – | – | – | – | – | 0 | 36 |
| 15 | Los Angeles Galaxy | 28 | – | – | – | – | – | -7 | 36 |
| 16 | Orlando City SC | 27 | – | – | – | – | – | -16 | 34 |
| 17 | New York City FC | 27 | – | – | – | – | – | +5 | 33 |
| 18 | FC Cincinnati | 26 | – | – | – | – | – | -9 | 33 |
| 19 | New York Red Bulls | 27 | – | – | – | – | – | -17 | 33 |
| 20 | San Diego | 27 | – | – | – | – | – | 0 | 32 |
| 21 | Portland Timbers | 27 | – | – | – | – | – | -3 | 32 |
| 22 | Real Salt Lake | 27 | – | – | – | – | – | -4 | 32 |
| 23 | Austin | 27 | – | – | – | – | – | -12 | 31 |
| 24 | DC United | 26 | – | – | – | – | – | -8 | 30 |
| 25 | Columbus Crew | 27 | – | – | – | – | – | -4 | 29 |
| 26 | Minnesota United FC | 27 | – | – | – | – | – | -9 | 29 |
| 27 | Toronto FC | 27 | – | – | – | – | – | -12 | 29 |
| 28 | Atlanta United FC | 27 | – | – | – | – | – | -13 | 27 |
| 29 | CF Montreal | 27 | – | – | – | – | – | -20 | 24 |
| 30 | Sporting Kansas City | 27 | – | – | – | – | – | -33 | 21 |