Colunga vs Praviano prediction, Saturday 10 October: chances and analysisBack to today's picks
· Spain - Tercera División RFEF - Group 2
Colunga v PravianoHomevAwayHomevAway
No pick for this match: no market passed our rules.
Our model's chances
Chances of each result: Colunga win 36%, Draw 26%, Praviano win 38%.
Colunga host Praviano in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 2, Spain.
Our model gives Colunga a 36% chance of winning, a draw 26% and Praviano 38%.
The model expects Colunga to score 1.4 goals and Praviano 1.4.
Colunga have won 3 of their last 5 league matches; Praviano have won 1 of 5.
Top factors
- Colunga sit 5th with 10 points; Praviano sit 12th with 4 points.
- Colunga have taken 10 points from their last 5 matches; Praviano 4 from 5.
- At home, Colunga have taken 3 points from their last 2; away, Praviano have taken 3 from their last 2.
Chances and prices are from our nightly scan before the match. Nothing after that is used.
Key numbers, the table, form, head to head and more.
Our model's chance for each market. No bookmaker prices yet.
Yesterday: 4 of 4 picks won. See every pick
Today's picks
Today, Saturday 10 October
Times shown in your time (EDT)
Expected goals (our model)Colunga 1.4, Praviano 1.4 Context onlyTable position isn't in the model.
Where the teams sit in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 2, before kick-off.
Colunga sit 5th with 10 points; Praviano sit 12th with 4. A gap of 4 in goal difference, in favour of Colunga.
Stored before 7 October 2026: wins, draws, losses and goals were not kept.
- 4th Condal11 points from 5 games · goal difference +6
- 5th Colunga10 points from 5 games · goal difference +2
- 6th Caudal10 points from 5 games · goal difference +2
- 11th San Martín5 points from 5 games · goal difference -5
- 12th Praviano4 points from 5 games · goal difference -2
- 13th L'Entregu4 points from 5 games · goal difference -4
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|
| 4 | Condal | 5 | – | – | – | – | – | +6 | 11 |
| 5 | Colunga | 5 | – | – | – | – | – | +2 | 10 |
| 6 | Caudal | 5 | – | – | – | – | – | +2 | 10 |
| 11 | San Martín | 5 | – | – | – | – | – | -5 | 5 |
| 12 | Praviano | 5 | – | – | – | – | – | -2 | 4 |
| 13 | L'Entregu | 5 | – | – | – | – | – | -4 | 4 |
Show full tableShow less
- 1st Covadonga13 points from 5 games · goal difference +10
- 2nd Sporting Gijón II13 points from 5 games · goal difference +5
- 3rd Mosconia11 points from 5 games · goal difference +7
- 4th Condal11 points from 5 games · goal difference +6
- 5th Colunga10 points from 5 games · goal difference +2
- 6th Caudal10 points from 5 games · goal difference +2
- 7th Siero9 points from 5 games · goal difference +3
- 8th Langreo8 points from 5 games · goal difference +2
- 9th Gijón Industrial7 points from 5 games · goal difference +2
- 10th Lealtad7 points from 5 games · goal difference +1
- 11th San Martín5 points from 5 games · goal difference -5
Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.
Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
DDrewat L'Entregu3 Oct 2026 · Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 · Away0–0
LLostv Covadonga26 Sept 2026 · Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 · Home1–2
WWonat Ceares20 Sept 2026 · Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 · Away4–3
WWonv Astur13 Sept 2026 · Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 · Home2–1
WWonat Andes6 Sept 2026 · Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 · Away2–1
Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.
Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
DDrewv Caudal4 Oct 2026 · Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 · Home1–1
LLostat Langreo27 Sept 2026 · Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 · Away2–3
LLostv Avilés Stadium20 Sept 2026 · Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 · Home0–1
WWonat Lealtad12 Sept 2026 · Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 · Away2–1
LLostv Sporting Gijón II6 Sept 2026 · Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 · Home1–2
In the modelThe model rates each team's home and away records separately.
The last 5 and 10 matches, then Colunga at home and Praviano away only: a home fixture is read from home matches where there are enough.
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
Colunga
- Last 5 (5)3 won, 1 drawn, 1 lost · 9 scored, 7 conceded · 2.00 points a game · 1 clean sheet · failed to score in 1
- Last 10 (5)3 won, 1 drawn, 1 lost · 9 scored, 7 conceded · 2.00 points a game · 1 clean sheet · failed to score in 1
- Home, last 5 (2)1 won, 0 drawn, 1 lost · 3 scored, 3 conceded · 1.50 points a game · 0 clean sheets · failed to score in 0
- Home, last 10 (2)1 won, 0 drawn, 1 lost · 3 scored, 3 conceded · 1.50 points a game · 0 clean sheets · failed to score in 0
Colunga| Sample | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | CS | FTS |
|---|
| Last 5 (5) | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 7 | +2 | 10 | 2.00 | 1 | 1 |
|---|
| Last 10 (5) | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 7 | +2 | 10 | 2.00 | 1 | 1 |
|---|
| Home, last 5 (2) | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 1.50 | 0 | 0 |
|---|
| Home, last 10 (2) | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 1.50 | 0 | 0 |
|---|
Praviano
- Last 5 (5)1 won, 1 drawn, 3 lost · 6 scored, 8 conceded · 0.80 points a game · 0 clean sheets · failed to score in 1
- Last 10 (5)1 won, 1 drawn, 3 lost · 6 scored, 8 conceded · 0.80 points a game · 0 clean sheets · failed to score in 1
- Away, last 5 (2)1 won, 0 drawn, 1 lost · 4 scored, 4 conceded · 1.50 points a game · 0 clean sheets · failed to score in 0
- Away, last 10 (2)1 won, 0 drawn, 1 lost · 4 scored, 4 conceded · 1.50 points a game · 0 clean sheets · failed to score in 0
Praviano| Sample | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | CS | FTS |
|---|
| Last 5 (5) | 5 | 1 |
|---|
Colunga at home: Insufficient historical data. Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
Praviano away: Insufficient historical data. Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
Context onlyShown for context. The model's own ratings come from goals scored and conceded this season and last.
| Measure | Colunga | Praviano |
|---|
| League position | 5th | 12th |
|---|
| Points per game | 2.00 | 0.80 |
|---|
| Attack: goals per game (last 5 and 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
|---|
| Defence: conceded per game (last 5 and 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
|---|
| Clean sheets | 1 | 0 |
|---|
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
In the modelMissing players move the model's expected goals, chiefly a missing top scorer.
Players out or doubtful, as reported the night before.
Showing the top 20 of 26 picks, in kick-off order. 6 more are under Show all.Updating…
Starting in 3 to 6 hours (12)
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 71%
Average price 1.32
GENGenoaLLWDLFIOFiorentinaDWWLL
Last 5 games
· Italy - Serie A
Each of Fiorentina's last 5 league matches had two or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 93%
Average price 1.03
AUGFC AugsburgDLDWWBMUBayern MünchenWWWD
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 85%
Average price 1.10
HOF1899 HoffenheimLLWLLHAMHamburger SVWWLL
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 87%
Average price 1.07
PADSC Paderborn 07WWLLDVSTVfB StuttgartWWLL
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 82%
Average price 1.13
UBEUnion BerlinWLLLDELVSV ElversbergLDLW
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 84%
Average price 1.11
FMAFSV Mainz 05WWLWDBLEBayer LeverkusenWWDW
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 83%
Average price 1.13
CHEChelseaLDWLWBOUBournemouthLWDW
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 79%
Average price 1.18
MIDMiddlesbroughDDWLWWOLWolvesWLWD
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 75%
Average price 1.25
PREPrestonDLLWLMILMillwallDDLL
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 86%
Average price 1.08
RANRangersWWWWWKILKilmarnockDWDD
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 75%
Average price 1.25
ALAAlavesDLLWWAMAAtletico MadridWWWL
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 85%
Average price 1.09
GAEGO Ahead EaglesDDDLWSROSparta RotterdamLLDL
Starting later (8)
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 86%
Average price 1.08
INTInterWDWLWPARParmaWLD
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|
| 1 | Covadonga | 5 | – | – | – | – | – | +10 | 13 |
| 2 | Sporting Gijón II | 5 | – | – | – | – | – | +5 | 13 |
| 3 | Mosconia | 5 | – | – | – | – | – | +7 | 11 |
| 4 | Condal | 5 | – | – | – | – | – | +6 | 11 |
| 5 | Colunga | 5 | – | – | – | – | – | +2 | 10 |
| 6 | Caudal | 5 | – | – | – | – | – | +2 | 10 |
| 7 | Siero | 5 | – | – | – | – | – | +3 | 9 |
| 8 | Langreo | 5 | – | – | – | – | – | +2 | 8 |
| 9 | Gijón Industrial | 5 | – | – | – | – | – | +2 | 7 |
| 10 | Lealtad | 5 | – | – | – | – | – | +1 | 7 |
| 11 | San Martín | 5 | – | – | – | – | – | -5 | 5 |
| 12 | Praviano | 5 | – | – | – | – | – | -2 | 4 |
| 13 | L'Entregu | 5 | – | – | – | – | – | -4 | 4 |
| 14 | Ceares | 5 | – | – | – | – | – | -4 | 3 |
| 15 | Llanes | 5 | – | – | – | – | – | -6 | 3 |
| 16 | Avilés Stadium | 5 | – | – | – | – | – | -7 | 3 |
| 17 | Astur | 5 | – | – | – | – | – | -5 | 2 |
| 18 | Andes | 5 | – | – | – | – | – | -7 | 1 |
| Last 10 (5) | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 8 | -2 | 4 | 0.80 | 0 | 1 |
|---|
| Away, last 5 (2) | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 1.50 | 0 | 0 |
|---|
| Away, last 10 (2) | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 1.50 | 0 | 0 |
|---|
W
· Germany - Bundesliga
Each of FC Augsburg's last 4 league matches had three or more goals.
L
· Germany - Bundesliga
Each of 1899 Hoffenheim's last 4 league matches had three or more goals.
W
· Germany - Bundesliga
3 of VfB Stuttgart's last 4 league matches had two or more goals.
W
· Germany - Bundesliga
Each of Union Berlin's last 4 league matches had three or more goals.
L
· Germany - Bundesliga
Each of Bayer Leverkusen's last 4 league matches had two or more goals.
D
· England - Premier League
Each of Chelsea's last 5 league matches had three or more goals.
L
· England - Championship
Each of Middlesbrough's last 4 home matches had three or more goals.
W
· England - Championship
Each of Millwall's last 8 league matches had two or more goals.
L
· Scotland - Premiership
The model expects Rangers to score 1.9 goals and Kilmarnock 0.9.
L
· Spain - La Liga
Each of Atletico Madrid's last 7 league matches had two or more goals.
D
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
Each of GO Ahead Eagles's last 7 league matches had two or more goals.
L
L
· Italy - Serie A
Each of Parma's last 4 league matches had two or more goals.
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 88%
Average price 1.05
RLERB LeipzigLWLLWEFREintracht FrankfurtWDWLD
Last 5 games
· Germany - Bundesliga
Each of RB Leipzig's last 4 league matches had two or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 83%
Average price 1.12
MANManchester UnitedDLLWDTOTTottenhamLLDDL
Last 5 games
· England - Premier League
4 of Manchester United's last 5 league matches had two or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 85%
Average price 1.10
FEYFeyenoordWWLWDAALAZ AlkmaarWLDWW
Last 5 games
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
Each of Feyenoord's last 6 league matches had three or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 74%
Average price 1.25
MARMaritimoDLLLDPORFC PortoWWWLW
Last 5 games
· Portugal - Primeira Liga
Each of FC Porto's last 7 league matches had two or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 86%
Average price 1.09
FSIFortuna SittardWWLWWTWETwenteWWWWD
Last 5 games
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
Each of Fortuna Sittard's last 3 home matches had two or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 88%
Average price 1.06
AJAAjaxDWWLWNNINEC NijmegenDLLDL
Last 5 games
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
Each of Ajax's last 7 league matches had two or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 88%
Average price 1.05
RMAReal MadridLWWWLVILVillarrealWWLLL
Last 5 games
· Spain - La Liga
Each of Villarreal's last 4 league matches had three or more goals.
See the full analysis