No pick for this match: no market passed our rules.
Our model's chances
Chances of each result: Dagenham & Redbridge win 33%, Draw 32%, Hemel Hempstead Town win 35%.
33%
Dagenham & Redbridge win
32%
Draw
35%
Hemel Hempstead Town win
What the data says
Dagenham & Redbridge host Hemel Hempstead Town in the National League - South, England.
Our model gives Dagenham & Redbridge a 33% chance of winning, a draw 32% and Hemel Hempstead Town 35%.
The model expects Dagenham & Redbridge to score 1.0 goals and Hemel Hempstead Town 1.0.
Dagenham & Redbridge have won 2 of their last 6 league matches; Hemel Hempstead Town have won 1 of 6.
Top factors
Dagenham & Redbridge sit 2nd with 19 points; Hemel Hempstead Town sit 12th with 13 points.
Dagenham & Redbridge have taken 7 points from their last 5 matches; Hemel Hempstead Town 6 from 5.
At home, Dagenham & Redbridge have taken 6 points from their last 3; away, Hemel Hempstead Town have taken 4 from their last 3.
Chances and prices are from our nightly scan before the match. Nothing after that is used.
Full analysisKey numbers, the table, form, head to head and more.
Key numbers
Our model's chance for each market, with the bookmakers' average price.
Dagenham & Redbridge win
33% · price 1.94
Draw
32% · price 3.34
Hemel Hempstead Town win
35% · price 3.54
Over 1.5 goals
65% · price 1.29
Over 2.5 goals
39% · price 1.96
Both teams score
47% · price 1.80
Expected goals (our model)
Dagenham & Redbridge 1.0, Hemel Hempstead Town 1.0
League context
Context onlyTable position isn't in the model.
Where the teams sit in the National League - South, before kick-off.
Dagenham & Redbridge sit 2nd with 19 points; Hemel Hempstead Town sit 12th with 13. A gap of 3 in goal difference, in favour of Dagenham & Redbridge.
Stored before 7 October 2026: wins, draws, losses and goals were not kept.
1stMaidstone Utd19 points from 10 games · goal difference +7
2ndDagenham & Redbridge19 points from 10 games · goal difference +3
3rdSalisbury18 points from 10 games · goal difference +11
11thMaidenhead13 points from 10 games · goal difference +1
12thHemel Hempstead Town13 points from 10 games · goal difference 0
13thTorquay13 points from 10 games · goal difference -1
#
Team
P
W
D
L
GF
GA
GD
Pts
1
Maidstone Utd
10
–
–
–
–
–
+7
19
2
Dagenham & Redbridge
10
–
–
–
–
–
+3
19
3
Salisbury
10
–
–
–
–
–
+11
18
11
Maidenhead
10
–
–
–
–
–
+1
13
12
Hemel Hempstead Town
10
–
–
–
–
–
0
13
13
Torquay
10
–
–
–
–
–
-1
Show full tableShow less
1stMaidstone Utd19 points from 10 games · goal difference +7
2ndDagenham & Redbridge19 points from 10 games · goal difference +3
3rdSalisbury18 points from 10 games · goal difference +11
4thTruro City18 points from 10 games · goal difference +8
5thBillericay Town18 points from 10 games · goal difference +7
6thWeston-super-Mare17 points from 10 games · goal difference +8
7thFarnham Town17 points from 10 games · goal difference +2
8thDover17 points from 10 games · goal difference +1
9thDorking Wanderers16 points from 10 games · goal difference +6
10thTonbridge Angels14 points from 10 games · goal difference +8
11th
Dagenham & Redbridge: recent fixtures
Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.
Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
WWonv Hampton & Richmond26 Sept 2026 · National League - South · Home1–0
LLostat Weston-super-Mare12 Sept 2026 · National League - South · Away0–1
LLostv Dover8 Sept 2026 · National League - South · Home0–1
DDrewat Horsham5 Sept 2026 · National League - South · Away1–1
WWonv Slough Town31 Aug 2026 · National League - South · Home1–0
Show last 6 matchesShowing 6
LLostat Truro City29 Aug 2026 · National League - South · Away0–3
Hemel Hempstead Town: recent fixtures
Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.
Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
WWonat Slough Town26 Sept 2026 · National League - South · Away2–0
DDrewv Tonbridge Angels12 Sept 2026 · National League - South · Home1–1
DDrewat Ebbsfleet United8 Sept 2026 · National League - South · Away0–0
DDrewv Farnham Town5 Sept 2026 · National League - South · Home1–1
LLostat Folkestone Invicta31 Aug 2026 · National League - South · Away0–2
Show last 6 matchesShowing 6
LLostv Weston-super-Mare29 Aug 2026 · National League - South · Home1–3
Form, home and away
In the modelThe model rates each team's home and away records separately.
The last 5 and 10 matches, then Dagenham & Redbridge at home and Hemel Hempstead Town away only: a home fixture is read from home matches where there are enough.
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
Dagenham & Redbridge
Last 5 (5)2 won, 1 drawn, 2 lost · 3 scored, 3 conceded · 1.40 points a game · 2 clean sheets · failed to score in 2
Last 10 (6)2 won, 1 drawn, 3 lost · 3 scored, 6 conceded · 1.17 points a game · 2 clean sheets · failed to score in 3
Home, last 5 (3)2 won, 0 drawn, 1 lost · 2 scored, 1 conceded · 2.00 points a game · 2 clean sheets · failed to score in 1
Home, last 10 (3)2 won, 0 drawn, 1 lost · 2 scored, 1 conceded · 2.00 points a game · 2 clean sheets · failed to score in 1
Dagenham & Redbridge
Sample
P
W
D
L
GF
GA
GD
Pts
PPG
CS
FTS
Last 5 (5)
5
2
1
2
3
3
0
7
1.40
2
2
Last 10 (6)
6
2
1
3
3
6
-3
7
1.17
2
3
Home, last 5 (3)
3
2
0
1
2
1
+1
6
2.00
2
1
Home, last 10 (3)
3
2
0
1
2
1
+1
6
2.00
2
1
Hemel Hempstead Town
Last 5 (5)1 won, 3 drawn, 1 lost · 4 scored, 4 conceded · 1.20 points a game · 2 clean sheets · failed to score in 2
Last 10 (6)1 won, 3 drawn, 2 lost · 5 scored, 7 conceded · 1.00 points a game · 2 clean sheets · failed to score in 2
Away, last 5 (3)1 won, 1 drawn, 1 lost · 2 scored, 2 conceded · 1.33 points a game · 2 clean sheets · failed to score in 2
Away, last 10 (3)1 won, 1 drawn, 1 lost · 2 scored, 2 conceded · 1.33 points a game · 2 clean sheets · failed to score in 2
Hemel Hempstead Town
Sample
P
W
D
L
GF
GA
GD
Pts
PPG
CS
FTS
Last 5 (5)
5
1
Dagenham & Redbridge at home: Insufficient historical data. Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
Hemel Hempstead Town away: Insufficient historical data. Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
Team strength, attack and defence
Context onlyShown for context. The model's own ratings come from goals scored and conceded this season and last.
Measure
Dagenham & Redbridge
Hemel Hempstead Town
League position
2nd
12th
Points per game
1.90
1.30
Attack: goals per game (last 6 and 6)
0.50
0.83
Defence: conceded per game (last 6 and 6)
1.00
1.17
Clean sheets
2
2
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
Squad availability
In the modelMissing players move the model's expected goals, chiefly a missing top scorer.
Players out or doubtful, as reported the night before.
Dagenham & Redbridge
None reported.
Hemel Hempstead Town
None reported.
13
Maidenhead
13 points from 10 games · goal difference +1
12thHemel Hempstead Town13 points from 10 games · goal difference 0
13thTorquay13 points from 10 games · goal difference -1
14thEbbsfleet United12 points from 6 games · goal difference +4
15thFolkestone Invicta12 points from 10 games · goal difference +3
16thChelmsford City11 points from 9 games · goal difference +1
17thHorsham11 points from 9 games · goal difference -1
18thFarnborough11 points from 9 games · goal difference -5
19thChesham United10 points from 10 games · goal difference -3
20thAFC Totton10 points from 9 games · goal difference -7
21stBraintree10 points from 10 games · goal difference -8
22ndHampton & Richmond8 points from 10 games · goal difference -13
23rdWalton & Hersham5 points from 10 games · goal difference -18
24thSlough Town4 points from 10 games · goal difference -14