Defensor Sporting vs Cerro prediction, Saturday 10 October: chances and analysisBack to today's picks
· Uruguay - Primera División
Defensor Sporting v CerroHomevAwayHomevAway
No pick for this match: no market passed our rules.
Our model's chances
Chances of each result: Defensor Sporting win 52%, Draw 27%, Cerro win 21%.
Defensor Sporting host Cerro in the Primera División, Uruguay.
Our model gives Defensor Sporting a 52% chance of winning, a draw 27% and Cerro 21%.
The model expects Defensor Sporting to score 1.5 goals and Cerro 0.8.
Defensor Sporting have won 2 of their last 6 league matches; Cerro have won 2 of 6.
Top factors
- Defensor Sporting sit 11th with 35 points; Cerro sit 13th with 33 points.
- Defensor Sporting have taken 7 points from their last 5 matches; Cerro 7 from 5.
- At home, Defensor Sporting have taken 6 points from their last 3; away, Cerro have taken 5 from their last 3.
Chances and prices are from our nightly scan before the match. Nothing after that is used.
Key numbers, the table, form, head to head and more.
Our model's chance for each market, with the bookmakers' average price.
- Defensor Sporting win
- 52% · price 1.77
Yesterday: 4 of 4 picks won. See every pick
Today's picks
Today, Saturday 10 October
Times shown in your time (EDT)
Cerro win21% · price 4.33 Over 1.5 goals70% · price 1.40 Over 2.5 goals45% · price 2.25 Both teams score48% · price 2.06 Expected goals (our model)Defensor Sporting 1.5, Cerro 0.8 Context onlyTable position isn't in the model.
Where the teams sit in the Primera División, before kick-off.
Defensor Sporting sit 11th with 35 points; Cerro sit 13th with 33. A gap of 14 in goal difference, in favour of Defensor Sporting.
Stored before 7 October 2026: wins, draws, losses and goals were not kept.
- 10th Juventud37 points from 31 games · goal difference -4
- 11th Defensor Sporting35 points from 31 games · goal difference -8
- 12th Cerro Largo33 points from 31 games · goal difference -7
- 13th Cerro33 points from 31 games · goal difference -22
- 14th Boston River31 points from 31 games · goal difference -13
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|
| 10 | Juventud | 31 | – | – | – | – | – | -4 | 37 |
| 11 | Defensor Sporting | 31 | – | – | – | – | – | -8 | 35 |
| 12 | Cerro Largo | 31 | – | – | – | – | – | -7 | 33 |
| 13 | Cerro | 31 | – | – | – | – | – | -22 | 33 |
| 14 | Boston River | 31 | – | – | – | – | – | -13 | 31 |
Show full tableShow less
- 1st Penarol66 points from 32 games · goal difference +29
- 2nd Deportivo Maldonado58 points from 31 games · goal difference +22
- 3rd Atletico Torque57 points from 32 games · goal difference +16
- 4th Racing Montevideo53 points from 31 games · goal difference +11
- 5th Club Nacional52 points from 31 games · goal difference +9
- 6th Wanderers50 points from 32 games · goal difference 0
- 7th Liverpool Montevideo49 points from 31 games · goal difference +12
- 8th Central Espanol38 points from 31 games · goal difference -10
- 9th Albion FC37 points from 31 games · goal difference -1
- 10th Juventud37 points from 31 games · goal difference -4
- 11th
Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.
Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
LLostat Albion FC3 Oct 2026 · Primera División · Away2–3
WWonv Danubio27 Sept 2026 · Primera División · Home1–0
LLostat Club Nacional20 Sept 2026 · Primera División · Away2–3
WWonv Deportivo Maldonado13 Sept 2026 · Primera División · Home1–0
DDrewat Central Espanol6 Sept 2026 · Primera División · Away1–1
Show last 6 matchesShowing 6
LLostv Atletico Torque29 Aug 2026 · Primera División · Home1–3
Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.
Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
LLostv Wanderers4 Oct 2026 · Primera División · Home0–2
DDrewat Juventud27 Sept 2026 · Primera División · Away0–0
LLostv Penarol19 Sept 2026 · Primera División · Home1–2
WWonat Progreso13 Sept 2026 · Primera División · Away3–1
WWonv Racing Montevideo6 Sept 2026 · Primera División · Home1–0
Show last 6 matchesShowing 6
DDrewat Boston River29 Aug 2026 · Primera División · Away1–1
In the modelThe model rates each team's home and away records separately.
The last 5 and 10 matches, then Defensor Sporting at home and Cerro away only: a home fixture is read from home matches where there are enough.
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
Defensor Sporting
- Last 5 (5)2 won, 1 drawn, 2 lost · 7 scored, 7 conceded · 1.40 points a game · 2 clean sheets · failed to score in 0
- Last 10 (6)2 won, 1 drawn, 3 lost · 8 scored, 10 conceded · 1.17 points a game · 2 clean sheets · failed to score in 0
- Home, last 5 (3)2 won, 0 drawn, 1 lost · 3 scored, 3 conceded · 2.00 points a game · 2 clean sheets · failed to score in 0
- Home, last 10 (3)2 won, 0 drawn, 1 lost · 3 scored, 3 conceded · 2.00 points a game · 2 clean sheets · failed to score in 0
Defensor Sporting| Sample | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | CS | FTS |
|---|
| Last 5 (5) | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 7 | 1.40 | 2 | 0 |
|---|
| Last 10 (6) | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 10 | -2 | 7 | 1.17 | 2 | 0 |
|---|
| Home, last 5 (3) | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 2.00 | 2 | 0 |
|---|
| Home, last 10 (3) | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 2.00 | 2 | 0 |
|---|
Cerro
- Last 5 (5)2 won, 1 drawn, 2 lost · 5 scored, 5 conceded · 1.40 points a game · 2 clean sheets · failed to score in 2
- Last 10 (6)2 won, 2 drawn, 2 lost · 6 scored, 6 conceded · 1.33 points a game · 2 clean sheets · failed to score in 2
- Away, last 5 (3)1 won, 2 drawn, 0 lost · 4 scored, 2 conceded · 1.67 points a game · 1 clean sheet · failed to score in 1
- Away, last 10 (3)1 won, 2 drawn, 0 lost · 4 scored, 2 conceded · 1.67 points a game · 1 clean sheet · failed to score in 1
Cerro| Sample | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | CS | FTS |
|---|
| Last 5 (5) | 5 | 2 |
|---|
Defensor Sporting at home: Insufficient historical data. Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
Cerro away: Insufficient historical data. Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
Context onlyShown for context. The model's own ratings come from goals scored and conceded this season and last.
| Measure | Defensor Sporting | Cerro |
|---|
| League position | 11th | 13th |
|---|
| Points per game | 1.13 | 1.06 |
|---|
| Attack: goals per game (last 6 and 6) | 1.33 | 1.00 |
|---|
| Defence: conceded per game (last 6 and 6) | 1.67 | 1.00 |
|---|
| Clean sheets | 2 | 2 |
|---|
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
In the modelMissing players move the model's expected goals, chiefly a missing top scorer.
Players out or doubtful, as reported the night before.
Defensor Sporting
None reported.
Showing the top 20 of 26 picks, in kick-off order. 6 more are under Show all.Updating…
Starting in 3 to 6 hours (12)
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 71%
Average price 1.32
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Last 5 games
· Italy - Serie A
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Average price 1.03
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Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
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Average price 1.10
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Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 87%
Average price 1.07
PADSC Paderborn 07WWLLDVSTVfB StuttgartWWLL
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 82%
Average price 1.13
UBEUnion BerlinWLLLDELVSV ElversbergLDLW
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 84%
Average price 1.11
FMAFSV Mainz 05WWLWDBLEBayer LeverkusenWWDW
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 83%
Average price 1.13
CHEChelseaLDWLWBOUBournemouthLWDW
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 79%
Average price 1.18
MIDMiddlesbroughDDWLWWOLWolvesWLWD
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 75%
Average price 1.25
PREPrestonDLLWLMILMillwallDDLL
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 86%
Average price 1.08
RANRangersWWWWWKILKilmarnockDWDD
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 75%
Average price 1.25
ALAAlavesDLLWWAMAAtletico MadridWWWL
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 85%
Average price 1.09
GAEGO Ahead EaglesDDDLWSROSparta RotterdamLLDL
Starting later (8)
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 86%
Average price 1.08
INTInterWDWLWPARParmaWLD
Defensor Sporting
35 points from 31 games · goal difference -8
12th Cerro Largo33 points from 31 games · goal difference -713th Cerro33 points from 31 games · goal difference -2214th Boston River31 points from 31 games · goal difference -1315th Danubio29 points from 32 games · goal difference -1516th Progreso28 points from 31 games · goal difference -19| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|
| 1 | Penarol | 32 | – | – | – | – | – | +29 | 66 |
| 2 | Deportivo Maldonado | 31 | – | – | – | – | – | +22 | 58 |
| 3 | Atletico Torque | 32 | – | – | – | – | – | +16 | 57 |
| 4 | Racing Montevideo | 31 | – | – | – | – | – | +11 | 53 |
| 5 | Club Nacional | 31 | – | – | – | – | – | +9 | 52 |
| 6 | Wanderers | 32 | – | – | – | – | – | 0 | 50 |
| 7 | Liverpool Montevideo | 31 | – | – | – | – | – | +12 | 49 |
| 8 | Central Espanol | 31 | – | – | – | – | – | -10 | 38 |
| 9 | Albion FC | 31 | – | – | – | – | – | -1 | 37 |
| 10 | Juventud | 31 | – | – | – | – | – | -4 | 37 |
| 11 | Defensor Sporting | 31 | – | – | – | – | – | -8 | 35 |
| 12 | Cerro Largo | 31 | – | – | – | – | – | -7 | 33 |
| 13 | Cerro | 31 | – | – | – | – | – | -22 | 33 |
| 14 | Boston River | 31 | – | – | – | – | – | -13 | 31 |
| 15 | Danubio | 32 | – | – | – | – | – | -15 | 29 |
| 16 | Progreso | 31 | – | – | – | – | – | -19 | 28 |
| Last 10 (6) | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 8 | 1.33 | 2 | 2 |
|---|
| Away, last 5 (3) | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 2 | +2 | 5 | 1.67 | 1 | 1 |
|---|
| Away, last 10 (3) | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 2 | +2 | 5 | 1.67 | 1 | 1 |
|---|
W
· Germany - Bundesliga
Each of FC Augsburg's last 4 league matches had three or more goals.
L
· Germany - Bundesliga
Each of 1899 Hoffenheim's last 4 league matches had three or more goals.
W
· Germany - Bundesliga
3 of VfB Stuttgart's last 4 league matches had two or more goals.
W
· Germany - Bundesliga
Each of Union Berlin's last 4 league matches had three or more goals.
L
· Germany - Bundesliga
Each of Bayer Leverkusen's last 4 league matches had two or more goals.
D
· England - Premier League
Each of Chelsea's last 5 league matches had three or more goals.
L
· England - Championship
Each of Middlesbrough's last 4 home matches had three or more goals.
W
· England - Championship
Each of Millwall's last 8 league matches had two or more goals.
L
· Scotland - Premiership
The model expects Rangers to score 1.9 goals and Kilmarnock 0.9.
L
· Spain - La Liga
Each of Atletico Madrid's last 7 league matches had two or more goals.
D
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
Each of GO Ahead Eagles's last 7 league matches had two or more goals.
L
L
· Italy - Serie A
Each of Parma's last 4 league matches had two or more goals.
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 88%
Average price 1.05
RLERB LeipzigLWLLWEFREintracht FrankfurtWDWLD
Last 5 games
· Germany - Bundesliga
Each of RB Leipzig's last 4 league matches had two or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 83%
Average price 1.12
MANManchester UnitedDLLWDTOTTottenhamLLDDL
Last 5 games
· England - Premier League
4 of Manchester United's last 5 league matches had two or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 85%
Average price 1.10
FEYFeyenoordWWLWDAALAZ AlkmaarWLDWW
Last 5 games
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
Each of Feyenoord's last 6 league matches had three or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 74%
Average price 1.25
MARMaritimoDLLLDPORFC PortoWWWLW
Last 5 games
· Portugal - Primeira Liga
Each of FC Porto's last 7 league matches had two or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 86%
Average price 1.09
FSIFortuna SittardWWLWWTWETwenteWWWWD
Last 5 games
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
Each of Fortuna Sittard's last 3 home matches had two or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 88%
Average price 1.06
AJAAjaxDWWLWNNINEC NijmegenDLLDL
Last 5 games
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
Each of Ajax's last 7 league matches had two or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 88%
Average price 1.05
RMAReal MadridLWWWLVILVillarrealWWLLL
Last 5 games
· Spain - La Liga
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See the full analysis