Doncaster vs Burton Albion prediction, Saturday 10 October: chances and analysisBack to today's picks
· England - League One
Doncaster v Burton AlbionHomevAwayHomevAway
No pick for this match: no market passed our rules.
Our model's chances
Chances of each result: Doncaster win 37%, Draw 27%, Burton Albion win 36%.
Doncaster host Burton Albion in the League One, England.
Our model gives Doncaster a 37% chance of winning, a draw 27% and Burton Albion 36%.
The model expects Doncaster to score 1.3 goals and Burton Albion 1.3.
Doncaster have won 1 of their last 6 league matches; Burton Albion have won 2 of 6.
Top factors
- Doncaster sit 21st with 6 points; Burton Albion sit 8th with 12 points.
- Doncaster have taken 5 points from their last 5 matches; Burton Albion 5 from 5.
- At home, Doncaster have taken 2 points from their last 3; away, Burton Albion have taken 3 from their last 2.
Chances and prices are from our nightly scan before the match. Nothing after that is used.
Key numbers, the table, form, head to head and more.
Our model's chance for each market, with the bookmakers' average price.
- Doncaster win
- 37% · price 1.67
Yesterday: 4 of 4 picks won. See every pick
Today's picks
Today, Saturday 10 October
Times shown in your time (EDT)
Burton Albion win36% · price 4.56 Over 1.5 goals75% · price 1.23 Over 2.5 goals51% · price 1.78 Both teams score52% · price 1.75 Expected goals (our model)Doncaster 1.3, Burton Albion 1.3 Context onlyTable position isn't in the model.
Where the teams sit in the League One, before kick-off.
Doncaster sit 21st with 6 points; Burton Albion sit 8th with 12. They are level on goal difference; Doncaster have played 2 fewer.
Stored before 7 October 2026: wins, draws, losses and goals were not kept.
- 7th Reading12 points from 8 games · goal difference +7
- 8th Burton Albion12 points from 9 games · goal difference -1
- 9th AFC Wimbledon12 points from 8 games · goal difference -2
- 20th Notts County7 points from 7 games · goal difference -2
- 21st Doncaster6 points from 7 games · goal difference -1
- 22nd Milton Keynes Dons6 points from 7 games · goal difference -2
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|
| 7 | Reading | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | +7 | 12 |
| 8 | Burton Albion | 9 | – | – | – | – | – | -1 | 12 |
| 9 | AFC Wimbledon | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | -2 | 12 |
| 20 | Notts County | 7 | – | – | – | – | – | -2 | 7 |
| 21 | Doncaster | 7 | – | – | – | – | – | -1 | 6 |
| 22 | Milton Keynes Dons | 7 | – | – | – | – | – | -2 |
Show full tableShow less
- 1st Plymouth16 points from 9 games · goal difference +5
- 2nd Bradford16 points from 8 games · goal difference +3
- 3rd Huddersfield15 points from 8 games · goal difference +7
- 4th Sheffield Wednesday14 points from 7 games · goal difference +7
- 5th Stockport County13 points from 8 games · goal difference +7
- 6th Cambridge United13 points from 8 games · goal difference +2
- 7th Reading12 points from 8 games · goal difference +7
- 8th Burton Albion12 points from 9 games · goal difference -1
- 9th AFC Wimbledon12 points from 8 games · goal difference -2
- 10th Oxford United11 points from 6 games · goal difference +6
- 11th Leyton Orient
Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.
Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
WWonat Peterborough19 Sept 2026 · League One · Away2–0
LLostat AFC Wimbledon12 Sept 2026 · League One · Away0–1
LLostv Plymouth5 Sept 2026 · League One · Home2–3
DDrewv Notts County1 Sept 2026 · League One · Home1–1
DDrewat Stevenage29 Aug 2026 · League One · Away2–2
Show last 6 matchesShowing 6
DDrewv Barnsley22 Aug 2026 · League One · Home0–0
Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.
Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
LLostv Huddersfield3 Oct 2026 · League One · Home1–3
WWonat Plymouth26 Sept 2026 · League One · Away1–0
DDrewv Mansfield Town19 Sept 2026 · League One · Home2–2
LLostat Oxford United12 Sept 2026 · League One · Away0–3
DDrewv Cambridge United5 Sept 2026 · League One · Home2–2
Show last 6 matchesShowing 6
WWonv AFC Wimbledon2 Sept 2026 · League One · Home4–1
In the modelThe model rates each team's home and away records separately.
The last 5 and 10 matches, then Doncaster at home and Burton Albion away only: a home fixture is read from home matches where there are enough.
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
Doncaster
- Last 5 (5)1 won, 2 drawn, 2 lost · 7 scored, 7 conceded · 1.00 points a game · 1 clean sheet · failed to score in 1
- Last 10 (6)1 won, 3 drawn, 2 lost · 7 scored, 7 conceded · 1.00 points a game · 2 clean sheets · failed to score in 2
- Home, last 5 (3)0 won, 2 drawn, 1 lost · 3 scored, 4 conceded · 0.67 points a game · 1 clean sheet · failed to score in 1
- Home, last 10 (3)0 won, 2 drawn, 1 lost · 3 scored, 4 conceded · 0.67 points a game · 1 clean sheet · failed to score in 1
Doncaster| Sample | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | CS | FTS |
|---|
| Last 5 (5) | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 5 | 1.00 | 1 | 1 |
|---|
| Last 10 (6) | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 6 | 1.00 | 2 | 2 |
|---|
| Home, last 5 (3) | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 2 | 0.67 | 1 | 1 |
|---|
| Home, last 10 (3) | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 2 | 0.67 | 1 | 1 |
|---|
Burton Albion
- Last 5 (5)1 won, 2 drawn, 2 lost · 6 scored, 10 conceded · 1.00 points a game · 1 clean sheet · failed to score in 1
- Last 10 (6)2 won, 2 drawn, 2 lost · 10 scored, 11 conceded · 1.33 points a game · 1 clean sheet · failed to score in 1
- Away, last 5 (2)1 won, 0 drawn, 1 lost · 1 scored, 3 conceded · 1.50 points a game · 1 clean sheet · failed to score in 1
- Away, last 10 (2)1 won, 0 drawn, 1 lost · 1 scored, 3 conceded · 1.50 points a game · 1 clean sheet · failed to score in 1
Burton Albion| Sample | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | CS | FTS |
|---|
| Last 5 (5) | 5 | 1 |
|---|
Doncaster at home: Insufficient historical data. Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
Burton Albion away: Insufficient historical data. Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
Context onlyShown for context. The model's own ratings come from goals scored and conceded this season and last.
| Measure | Doncaster | Burton Albion |
|---|
| League position | 21st | 8th |
|---|
| Points per game | 0.86 | 1.33 |
|---|
| Attack: goals per game (last 6 and 6) | 1.17 | 1.67 |
|---|
| Defence: conceded per game (last 6 and 6) | 1.17 | 1.83 |
|---|
| Clean sheets | 2 | 1 |
|---|
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
In the modelMissing players move the model's expected goals, chiefly a missing top scorer.
Players out or doubtful, as reported the night before.
Burton Albion
None reported.
Showing the top 20 of 26 picks, in kick-off order. 6 more are under Show all.Updating…
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Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 71%
Average price 1.32
GENGenoaLLWDLFIOFiorentinaDWWLL
Last 5 games
· Italy - Serie A
Each of Fiorentina's last 5 league matches had two or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
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Average price 1.03
AUGFC AugsburgDLDWWBMUBayern MünchenWWWD
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
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Average price 1.10
HOF1899 HoffenheimLLWLLHAMHamburger SVWWLL
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 87%
Average price 1.07
PADSC Paderborn 07WWLLDVSTVfB StuttgartWWLL
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 82%
Average price 1.13
UBEUnion BerlinWLLLDELVSV ElversbergLDLW
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 84%
Average price 1.11
FMAFSV Mainz 05WWLWDBLEBayer LeverkusenWWDW
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 83%
Average price 1.13
CHEChelseaLDWLWBOUBournemouthLWDW
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 79%
Average price 1.18
MIDMiddlesbroughDDWLWWOLWolvesWLWD
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 75%
Average price 1.25
PREPrestonDLLWLMILMillwallDDLL
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 86%
Average price 1.08
RANRangersWWWWWKILKilmarnockDWDD
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 75%
Average price 1.25
ALAAlavesDLLWWAMAAtletico MadridWWWL
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 85%
Average price 1.09
GAEGO Ahead EaglesDDDLWSROSparta RotterdamLLDL
Starting later (8)
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 86%
Average price 1.08
INTInterWDWLWPARParmaWLD
10 points from 8 games · goal difference +2
12th Wycombe10 points from 8 games · goal difference -313th Stevenage9 points from 7 games · goal difference +314th Leicester9 points from 7 games · goal difference -215th Blackpool8 points from 7 games · goal difference 016th Luton8 points from 7 games · goal difference -217th Mansfield Town8 points from 7 games · goal difference -318th Barnsley8 points from 7 games · goal difference -519th Bromley8 points from 7 games · goal difference -1020th Notts County7 points from 7 games · goal difference -221st Doncaster6 points from 7 games · goal difference -122nd Milton Keynes Dons6 points from 7 games · goal difference -223rd Peterborough5 points from 8 games · goal difference -924th Wigan4 points from 7 games · goal difference -7| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|
| 1 | Plymouth | 9 | – | – | – | – | – | +5 | 16 |
| 2 | Bradford | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | +3 | 16 |
| 3 | Huddersfield | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | +7 | 15 |
| 4 | Sheffield Wednesday | 7 | – | – | – | – | – | +7 | 14 |
| 5 | Stockport County | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | +7 | 13 |
| 6 | Cambridge United | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | +2 | 13 |
| 7 | Reading | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | +7 | 12 |
| 8 | Burton Albion | 9 | – | – | – | – | – | -1 | 12 |
| 9 | AFC Wimbledon | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | -2 | 12 |
| 10 | Oxford United | 6 | – | – | – | – | – | +6 | 11 |
| 11 | Leyton Orient | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | +2 | 10 |
| 12 | Wycombe | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | -3 | 10 |
| 13 | Stevenage | 7 | – | – | – | – | – | +3 | 9 |
| 14 | Leicester | 7 | – | – | – | – | – | -2 | 9 |
| 15 | Blackpool | 7 | – | – | – | – | – | 0 | 8 |
| 16 | Luton | 7 | – | – | – | – | – | -2 | 8 |
| 17 | Mansfield Town | 7 | – | – | – | – | – | -3 | 8 |
| 18 | Barnsley | 7 | – | – | – | – | – | -5 | 8 |
| 19 | Bromley | 7 | – | – | – | – | – | -10 | 8 |
| 20 | Notts County | 7 | – | – | – | – | – | -2 | 7 |
| 21 | Doncaster | 7 | – | – | – | – | – | -1 | 6 |
| 22 | Milton Keynes Dons | 7 | – | – | – | – | – | -2 | 6 |
| 23 | Peterborough | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | -9 | 5 |
| 24 | Wigan | 7 | – | – | – | – | – | -7 | 4 |
| Last 10 (6) | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 11 | -1 | 8 | 1.33 | 1 | 1 |
|---|
| Away, last 5 (2) | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 3 | 1.50 | 1 | 1 |
|---|
| Away, last 10 (2) | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 3 | 1.50 | 1 | 1 |
|---|
W
· Germany - Bundesliga
Each of FC Augsburg's last 4 league matches had three or more goals.
L
· Germany - Bundesliga
Each of 1899 Hoffenheim's last 4 league matches had three or more goals.
W
· Germany - Bundesliga
3 of VfB Stuttgart's last 4 league matches had two or more goals.
W
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Each of Union Berlin's last 4 league matches had three or more goals.
L
· Germany - Bundesliga
Each of Bayer Leverkusen's last 4 league matches had two or more goals.
D
· England - Premier League
Each of Chelsea's last 5 league matches had three or more goals.
L
· England - Championship
Each of Middlesbrough's last 4 home matches had three or more goals.
W
· England - Championship
Each of Millwall's last 8 league matches had two or more goals.
L
· Scotland - Premiership
The model expects Rangers to score 1.9 goals and Kilmarnock 0.9.
L
· Spain - La Liga
Each of Atletico Madrid's last 7 league matches had two or more goals.
D
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
Each of GO Ahead Eagles's last 7 league matches had two or more goals.
L
L
· Italy - Serie A
Each of Parma's last 4 league matches had two or more goals.
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 88%
Average price 1.05
RLERB LeipzigLWLLWEFREintracht FrankfurtWDWLD
Last 5 games
· Germany - Bundesliga
Each of RB Leipzig's last 4 league matches had two or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 83%
Average price 1.12
MANManchester UnitedDLLWDTOTTottenhamLLDDL
Last 5 games
· England - Premier League
4 of Manchester United's last 5 league matches had two or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
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Our model · Bookmakers: 85%
Average price 1.10
FEYFeyenoordWWLWDAALAZ AlkmaarWLDWW
Last 5 games
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
Each of Feyenoord's last 6 league matches had three or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 74%
Average price 1.25
MARMaritimoDLLLDPORFC PortoWWWLW
Last 5 games
· Portugal - Primeira Liga
Each of FC Porto's last 7 league matches had two or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 86%
Average price 1.09
FSIFortuna SittardWWLWWTWETwenteWWWWD
Last 5 games
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
Each of Fortuna Sittard's last 3 home matches had two or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
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Average price 1.06
AJAAjaxDWWLWNNINEC NijmegenDLLDL
Last 5 games
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
Each of Ajax's last 7 league matches had two or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 88%
Average price 1.05
RMAReal MadridLWWWLVILVillarrealWWLLL
Last 5 games
· Spain - La Liga
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