Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
78%win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 71%
Average price 1.32
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Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
78%win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 71%
Average price 1.32
· Spain - Tercera División RFEF - Group 4
No pick for this match: no market passed our rules.
Chances of each result: Durango win 35%, Draw 28%, Derio win 36%.
Durango host Derio in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 4, Spain.
Last 5 games
· Italy - Serie A
Each of Fiorentina's last 5 league matches had two or more goals.
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
87%win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 93%
Average price 1.03
Last 5 games
· Germany - Bundesliga
Each of FC Augsburg's last 4 league matches had three or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
85%win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 85%
Average price 1.10
Last 5 games
· Germany - Bundesliga
Each of 1899 Hoffenheim's last 4 league matches had three or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
84%win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 87%
Average price 1.07
Last 5 games
· Germany - Bundesliga
3 of VfB Stuttgart's last 4 league matches had two or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
83%win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 82%
Average price 1.13
Last 5 games
· Germany - Bundesliga
Each of Union Berlin's last 4 league matches had three or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
81%win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 84%
Average price 1.11
Last 5 games
· Germany - Bundesliga
Each of Bayer Leverkusen's last 4 league matches had two or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
80%win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 83%
Average price 1.13
Last 5 games
· England - Premier League
Each of Chelsea's last 5 league matches had three or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
80%win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 79%
Average price 1.18
Last 5 games
· England - Championship
Each of Middlesbrough's last 4 home matches had three or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
77%win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 75%
Average price 1.25
Last 5 games
· England - Championship
Each of Millwall's last 8 league matches had two or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
77%win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 86%
Average price 1.08
Last 5 games
· Scotland - Premiership
The model expects Rangers to score 1.9 goals and Kilmarnock 0.9.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
77%win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 75%
Average price 1.25
Last 5 games
· Spain - La Liga
Each of Atletico Madrid's last 7 league matches had two or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
85%win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 85%
Average price 1.09
Last 5 games
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
Each of GO Ahead Eagles's last 7 league matches had two or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
81%win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 86%
Average price 1.08
Last 5 games
· Italy - Serie A
Each of Parma's last 4 league matches had two or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
89%win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 88%
Average price 1.05
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
78%win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 83%
Average price 1.12
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
85%win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 85%
Average price 1.10
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
78%win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 74%
Average price 1.25
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
85%win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 86%
Average price 1.09
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
86%win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 88%
Average price 1.06
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
83%win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 88%
Average price 1.05
Our model gives Durango a 35% chance of winning, a draw 28% and Derio 36%.
The model expects Durango to score 1.2 goals and Derio 1.3.
Durango have won 1 of their last 5 league matches; Derio have won 3 of 5.
Chances and prices are from our nightly scan before the match. Nothing after that is used.
Our model's chance for each market. No bookmaker prices yet.
Context onlyTable position isn't in the model.
Where the teams sit in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 4, before kick-off.
Durango sit 10th with 6 points; Derio sit 2nd with 11. A gap of 5 in goal difference, in favour of Derio.
Stored before 7 October 2026: wins, draws, losses and goals were not kept.
| # | Team | P |
|---|
Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.
Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.
Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
In the modelThe model rates each team's home and away records separately.
The last 5 and 10 matches, then Durango at home and Derio away only: a home fixture is read from home matches where there are enough.
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
| Sample | P | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|
Context onlyShown for context. The model's own ratings come from goals scored and conceded this season and last.
| Measure | Durango | Derio |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 10th | 2nd |
| Points per game | 1.20 | 2.20 |
| Attack: goals per game (last 5 and 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| Defence: conceded per game (last 5 and 5) | 1.60 | 0.40 |
| Clean sheets | 1 | 3 |
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
In the modelMissing players move the model's expected goals, chiefly a missing top scorer.
Players out or doubtful, as reported the night before.
None reported.
None reported.
Last 5 games
· Germany - Bundesliga
Each of RB Leipzig's last 4 league matches had two or more goals.
Last 5 games
· England - Premier League
4 of Manchester United's last 5 league matches had two or more goals.
Last 5 games
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
Each of Feyenoord's last 6 league matches had three or more goals.
Last 5 games
· Portugal - Primeira Liga
Each of FC Porto's last 7 league matches had two or more goals.
Last 5 games
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
Each of Fortuna Sittard's last 3 home matches had two or more goals.
Last 5 games
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
Each of Ajax's last 7 league matches had two or more goals.
Last 5 games
· Spain - La Liga
Each of Villarreal's last 4 league matches had three or more goals.
| W |
|---|
| D |
|---|
| L |
|---|
| GF |
|---|
| GA |
|---|
| GD |
|---|
| Pts |
|---|
| 1 | Aurrerá Vitoria | 5 | – | – | – | – | – | +6 | 13 |
| 2 | Derio | 5 | – | – | – | – | – | +5 | 11 |
| 3 | Pasaia KE | 5 | – | – | – | – | – | +1 | 10 |
| 9 | Lagun Onak | 5 | – | – | – | – | – | -1 | 7 |
| 10 | Durango | 5 | – | – | – | – | – | 0 | 6 |
| 11 | Erandio | 5 | – | – | – | – | – | 0 | 6 |
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aurrerá Vitoria | 5 | – | – | – | – | – | +6 | 13 |
| 2 | Derio | 5 | – | – | – | – | – | +5 | 11 |
| 3 | Pasaia KE | 5 | – | – | – | – | – | +1 | 10 |
| 4 | Leioa | 5 | – |
| Pts |
|---|
| PPG |
|---|
| CS |
|---|
| FTS |
|---|
| Last 5 (5) | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 6 | 1.20 | 1 | 1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 10 (5) | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 6 | 1.20 | 1 | 1 |
| Home, last 5 (2) | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1.00 | 1 | 1 |
| Home, last 10 (2) | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1.00 | 1 | 1 |
| Sample | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | CS | FTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (5) | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 2 | +5 | 11 | 2.20 | 3 | 1 |
| Last 10 (5) | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 2 | +5 | 11 | 2.20 | 3 | 1 |
| Away, last 5 (2) | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | +1 | 4 | 2.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Away, last 10 (2) | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | +1 | 4 | 2.00 | 0 | 0 |
Durango at home: Insufficient historical data. Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
Derio away: Insufficient historical data. Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
| – |
| – |
| – |
| – |
| +6 |
| 9 |
| 5 | Real Sociedad III | 5 | – | – | – | – | – | +2 | 8 |
| 6 | Touring | 5 | – | – | – | – | – | +2 | 8 |
| 7 | Aretxabaleta | 5 | – | – | – | – | – | +1 | 8 |
| 8 | Deportivo Alavés III | 5 | – | – | – | – | – | +5 | 7 |
| 9 | Lagun Onak | 5 | – | – | – | – | – | -1 | 7 |
| 10 | Durango | 5 | – | – | – | – | – | 0 | 6 |
| 11 | Erandio | 5 | – | – | – | – | – | 0 | 6 |
| 12 | San Ignacio | 5 | – | – | – | – | – | +1 | 5 |
| 13 | Eibar III | 5 | – | – | – | – | – | 0 | 5 |
| 14 | R. Union B | 5 | – | – | – | – | – | -4 | 5 |
| 15 | Sodupe | 5 | – | – | – | – | – | -5 | 5 |
| 16 | Beasain | 5 | – | – | – | – | – | -3 | 4 |
| 17 | Santurtzi | 5 | – | – | – | – | – | -5 | 3 |
| 18 | Amurrio Club | 5 | – | – | – | – | – | -11 | 1 |