Back to today's picks
· Netherlands - Derde Divisie
Excelsior Maassluis v TOGBHomevAwayHomevAway
No pick for this match: no market passed our rules.
Our model's chances
Chances of each result: Excelsior Maassluis win 57%, Draw 21%, TOGB win 22%.
Excelsior Maassluis host TOGB in the Derde Divisie, Netherlands.
Our model gives Excelsior Maassluis a 57% chance of winning, a draw 21% and TOGB 22%.
The model expects Excelsior Maassluis to score 2.1 goals and TOGB 1.2.
Excelsior Maassluis have won 4 of their last 6 league matches; TOGB have won 2 of 6.
Top factors
- Excelsior Maassluis sit 8th with 17 points; TOGB sit 26th with 8 points.
- Excelsior Maassluis have taken 13 points from their last 5 matches; TOGB 7 from 5.
- At home, Excelsior Maassluis have taken 7 points from their last 3; away, TOGB have taken 3 from their last 3.
Chances and prices are from our nightly scan before the match. Nothing after that is used.
Key numbers, the table, form, head to head and more.
Our model's chance for each market, with the bookmakers' average price.
- Excelsior Maassluis win
- 57% · price 1.83
Over 2.5 goals62% · price 1.46 Expected goals (our model)Excelsior Maassluis 2.1, TOGB 1.2 Context onlyTable position isn't in the model.
Where the teams sit in the Derde Divisie, before kick-off.
Excelsior Maassluis sit 8th with 17 points; TOGB sit 26th with 8. A gap of 14 in goal difference, in favour of Excelsior Maassluis.
Stored before 7 October 2026: wins, draws, losses and goals were not kept.
- 7th SC Genemuiden18 points from 8 games · goal difference +10
- 8th Excelsior Maassluis17 points from 8 games · goal difference +9
- 9th Harkemase Boys17 points from 8 games · goal difference +4
- 25th UNA8 points from 8 games · goal difference -1
- 26th TOGB8 points from 8 games · goal difference -5
- 27th Vvsb7 points from 8 games · goal difference -6
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|
| 7 | SC Genemuiden | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | +10 | 18 |
| 8 | Excelsior Maassluis | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | +9 | 17 |
| 9 | Harkemase Boys | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | +4 | 17 |
| 25 | UNA | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | -1 | 8 |
| 26 | TOGB | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | -5 | 8 |
| 27 | Vvsb | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | -6 | 7 |
Show full tableShow less
- 1st Rijnvogels20 points from 8 games · goal difference +18
- 2nd Excelsior '3119 points from 8 games · goal difference +16
- 3rd ACV19 points from 8 games · goal difference +13
- 4th Noordwijk19 points from 8 games · goal difference +13
- 5th FC Lisse19 points from 8 games · goal difference +8
- 6th VV Scherpenzeel19 points from 8 games · goal difference +6
- 7th SC Genemuiden18 points from 8 games · goal difference +10
- 8th Excelsior Maassluis17 points from 8 games · goal difference +9
- 9th Harkemase Boys17 points from 8 games · goal difference +4
- 10th TEC16 points from 8 games · goal difference +11
- 11th Sportlust '46
Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.
Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
WWonat Vvsb3 Oct 2026 · Derde Divisie · Away3–2
WWonv Blauw Geel26 Sept 2026 · Derde Divisie · Home1–0
WWonv Roosendaal19 Sept 2026 · Derde Divisie · Home5–0
WWonat Achilles Veen12 Sept 2026 · Derde Divisie · Away3–2
DDrewv Noordwijk5 Sept 2026 · Derde Divisie · Home0–0
Show last 6 matchesShowing 6
LLostat FC Lisse29 Aug 2026 · Derde Divisie · Away0–1
Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.
Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
WWonv Roosendaal3 Oct 2026 · Derde Divisie · Home4–3
WWonat Achilles Veen26 Sept 2026 · Derde Divisie · Away1–0
LLostv Noordwijk19 Sept 2026 · Derde Divisie · Home0–3
LLostat FC Lisse12 Sept 2026 · Derde Divisie · Away2–3
DDrewv Groene Ster5 Sept 2026 · Derde Divisie · Home3–3
Show last 6 matchesShowing 6
LLostat UDI '1930 Aug 2026 · Derde Divisie · Away1–2
In the modelThe model rates each team's home and away records separately.
The last 5 and 10 matches, then Excelsior Maassluis at home and TOGB away only: a home fixture is read from home matches where there are enough.
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
Excelsior Maassluis
- Last 5 (5)4 won, 1 drawn, 0 lost · 12 scored, 4 conceded · 2.60 points a game · 3 clean sheets · failed to score in 1
- Last 10 (6)4 won, 1 drawn, 1 lost · 12 scored, 5 conceded · 2.17 points a game · 3 clean sheets · failed to score in 2
- Home, last 5 (3)2 won, 1 drawn, 0 lost · 6 scored, 0 conceded · 2.33 points a game · 3 clean sheets · failed to score in 1
- Home, last 10 (3)2 won, 1 drawn, 0 lost · 6 scored, 0 conceded · 2.33 points a game · 3 clean sheets · failed to score in 1
Excelsior Maassluis| Sample | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | CS | FTS |
|---|
| Last 5 (5) | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 4 | +8 | 13 | 2.60 | 3 | 1 |
|---|
| Last 10 (6) | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 5 | +7 | 13 | 2.17 | 3 | 2 |
|---|
| Home, last 5 (3) | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 0 | +6 | 7 | 2.33 | 3 | 1 |
|---|
| Home, last 10 (3) | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 0 | +6 | 7 | 2.33 | 3 | 1 |
|---|
TOGB
- Last 5 (5)2 won, 1 drawn, 2 lost · 10 scored, 12 conceded · 1.40 points a game · 1 clean sheet · failed to score in 1
- Last 10 (6)2 won, 1 drawn, 3 lost · 11 scored, 14 conceded · 1.17 points a game · 1 clean sheet · failed to score in 1
- Away, last 5 (3)1 won, 0 drawn, 2 lost · 4 scored, 5 conceded · 1.00 points a game · 1 clean sheet · failed to score in 0
- Away, last 10 (3)1 won, 0 drawn, 2 lost · 4 scored, 5 conceded · 1.00 points a game · 1 clean sheet · failed to score in 0
TOGB| Sample | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | CS | FTS |
|---|
| Last 5 (5) | 5 | 2 |
|---|
Excelsior Maassluis at home: Insufficient historical data. Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
TOGB away: Insufficient historical data. Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
Context onlyShown for context. The model's own ratings come from goals scored and conceded this season and last.
| Measure | Excelsior Maassluis | TOGB |
|---|
| League position | 8th | 26th |
|---|
| Points per game | 2.13 | 1.00 |
|---|
| Attack: goals per game (last 6 and 6) | 2.00 | 1.83 |
|---|
| Defence: conceded per game (last 6 and 6) | 0.83 | 2.33 |
|---|
| Clean sheets | 3 | 1 |
|---|
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
In the modelMissing players move the model's expected goals, chiefly a missing top scorer.
Players out or doubtful, as reported the night before.
Excelsior Maassluis
None reported.
15 points from 8 games · goal difference +3
12th Sparta Nijkerk14 points from 8 games · goal difference +613th UDI '1914 points from 8 games · goal difference +514th Purmersteijn14 points from 8 games · goal difference +415th GOES14 points from 8 games · goal difference -116th Hoogeveen13 points from 8 games · goal difference +517th Dongen13 points from 8 games · goal difference +418th Zwaluwen13 points from 8 games · goal difference -319th Gemert10 points from 8 games · goal difference -120th ADO '2010 points from 8 games · goal difference -321st Blauw Geel9 points from 8 games · goal difference 022nd Roosendaal9 points from 8 games · goal difference -323rd Poortugaal9 points from 8 games · goal difference -524th Hercules9 points from 8 games · goal difference -825th UNA8 points from 8 games · goal difference -126th TOGB8 points from 8 games · goal difference -527th Vvsb7 points from 8 games · goal difference -628th Groene Ster6 points from 8 games · goal difference -829th DVS 33 Ermelo5 points from 8 games · goal difference -530th Dovo5 points from 8 games · goal difference -1031st Staphorst3 points from 8 games · goal difference -832nd Achilles Veen3 points from 8 games · goal difference -1333rd Eemdijk3 points from 7 games · goal difference -1734th EVV2 points from 8 games · goal difference -1135th Hollandia1 points from 7 games · goal difference -1036th SVZW1 points from 8 games · goal difference -17| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|
| 1 | Rijnvogels | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | +18 | 20 |
| 2 | Excelsior '31 | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | +16 | 19 |
| 3 | ACV | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | +13 | 19 |
| 4 | Noordwijk | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | +13 | 19 |
| 5 | FC Lisse | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | +8 | 19 |
| 6 | VV Scherpenzeel | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | +6 | 19 |
| 7 | SC Genemuiden | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | +10 | 18 |
| 8 | Excelsior Maassluis | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | +9 | 17 |
| 9 | Harkemase Boys | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | +4 | 17 |
| 10 | TEC | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | +11 | 16 |
| 11 | Sportlust '46 | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | +3 | 15 |
| 12 | Sparta Nijkerk | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | +6 | 14 |
| 13 | UDI '19 | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | +5 | 14 |
| 14 | Purmersteijn | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | +4 | 14 |
| 15 | GOES | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | -1 | 14 |
| 16 | Hoogeveen | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | +5 | 13 |
| 17 | Dongen | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | +4 | 13 |
| 18 | Zwaluwen | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | -3 | 13 |
| 19 | Gemert | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | -1 | 10 |
| 20 | ADO '20 | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | -3 | 10 |
| 21 | Blauw Geel | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | 0 | 9 |
| 22 | Roosendaal | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | -3 | 9 |
| 23 | Poortugaal | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | -5 | 9 |
| 24 | Hercules | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | -8 | 9 |
| 25 | UNA | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | -1 | 8 |
| 26 | TOGB | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | -5 | 8 |
| 27 | Vvsb | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | -6 | 7 |
| 28 | Groene Ster | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | -8 | 6 |
| 29 | DVS 33 Ermelo | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | -5 | 5 |
| 30 | Dovo | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | -10 | 5 |
| 31 | Staphorst | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | -8 | 3 |
| 32 | Achilles Veen | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | -13 | 3 |
| 33 | Eemdijk | 7 | – | – | – | – | – | -17 | 3 |
| 34 | EVV | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | -11 | 2 |
| 35 | Hollandia | 7 | – | – | – | – | – | -10 | 1 |
| 36 | SVZW | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | -17 | 1 |
| Last 10 (6) | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 14 | -3 | 7 | 1.17 | 1 | 1 |
|---|
| Away, last 5 (3) | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 3 | 1.00 | 1 | 0 |
|---|
| Away, last 10 (3) | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 3 | 1.00 | 1 | 0 |
|---|
Yesterday: 4 of 4 picks won. See every pick
Today's picks
Today, Saturday 10 October
Times shown in your time (EDT)
Showing the top 20 of 26 picks, in kick-off order. 6 more are under Show all.Updating…
Starting in 3 to 6 hours (12)
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 71%
Average price 1.32
GENGenoaLLWDLFIOFiorentinaDWW
L
L
· Italy - Serie A
Each of Fiorentina's last 5 league matches had two or more goals.
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 93%
Average price 1.03
AUGFC AugsburgDLDWWBMUBayern MünchenWWWDW
Last 5 games
· Germany - Bundesliga
Each of FC Augsburg's last 4 league matches had three or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 85%
Average price 1.10
HOF1899 HoffenheimLLWLLHAMHamburger SVWWLLL
Last 5 games
· Germany - Bundesliga
Each of 1899 Hoffenheim's last 4 league matches had three or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 87%
Average price 1.07
PADSC Paderborn 07WWLLDVSTVfB StuttgartWWLLW
Last 5 games
· Germany - Bundesliga
3 of VfB Stuttgart's last 4 league matches had two or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 82%
Average price 1.13
UBEUnion BerlinWLLLDELVSV ElversbergLDLWW
Last 5 games
· Germany - Bundesliga
Each of Union Berlin's last 4 league matches had three or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 84%
Average price 1.11
FMAFSV Mainz 05WWLWDBLEBayer LeverkusenWWDWL
Last 5 games
· Germany - Bundesliga
Each of Bayer Leverkusen's last 4 league matches had two or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 83%
Average price 1.13
CHEChelseaLDWLWBOUBournemouthLWDWD
Last 5 games
· England - Premier League
Each of Chelsea's last 5 league matches had three or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 79%
Average price 1.18
MIDMiddlesbroughDDWLWWOLWolvesWLWDL
Last 5 games
· England - Championship
Each of Middlesbrough's last 4 home matches had three or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 75%
Average price 1.25
PREPrestonDLLWLMILMillwallDDLLW
Last 5 games
· England - Championship
Each of Millwall's last 8 league matches had two or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 86%
Average price 1.08
RANRangersWWWWWKILKilmarnockDWDDL
Last 5 games
· Scotland - Premiership
The model expects Rangers to score 1.9 goals and Kilmarnock 0.9.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 75%
Average price 1.25
ALAAlavesDLLWWAMAAtletico MadridWWWLL
Last 5 games
· Spain - La Liga
Each of Atletico Madrid's last 7 league matches had two or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 85%
Average price 1.09
GAEGO Ahead EaglesDDDLWSROSparta RotterdamLLDLD
Last 5 games
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
Each of GO Ahead Eagles's last 7 league matches had two or more goals.
See the full analysisStarting later (8)
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 86%
Average price 1.08
INTInterWDWLWPARParmaWLDLL
Last 5 games
· Italy - Serie A
Each of Parma's last 4 league matches had two or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 88%
Average price 1.05
RLERB LeipzigLWLLWEFREintracht FrankfurtWDWL
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 83%
Average price 1.12
MANManchester UnitedDLLWDTOTTottenhamLLDD
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 85%
Average price 1.10
FEYFeyenoordWWLWDAALAZ AlkmaarWLDW
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 74%
Average price 1.25
MARMaritimoDLLLDPORFC PortoWWWL
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 86%
Average price 1.09
FSIFortuna SittardWWLWWTWETwenteWWWW
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 88%
Average price 1.06
AJAAjaxDWWLWNNINEC NijmegenDLLD
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 88%
Average price 1.05
RMAReal MadridLWWWLVILVillarrealWWLL
D
· Germany - Bundesliga
Each of RB Leipzig's last 4 league matches had two or more goals.
L
· England - Premier League
4 of Manchester United's last 5 league matches had two or more goals.
W
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
Each of Feyenoord's last 6 league matches had three or more goals.
W
· Portugal - Primeira Liga
Each of FC Porto's last 7 league matches had two or more goals.
D
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
Each of Fortuna Sittard's last 3 home matches had two or more goals.
L
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
Each of Ajax's last 7 league matches had two or more goals.
L
· Spain - La Liga
Each of Villarreal's last 4 league matches had three or more goals.