FC Lisse vs Rijnvogels prediction, Saturday 10 October: chances and analysisBack to today's picks
· Netherlands - Derde Divisie
FC Lisse v RijnvogelsHomevAwayHomevAway
No pick for this match: no market passed our rules.
Our model's chances
Chances of each result: FC Lisse win 35%, Draw 21%, Rijnvogels win 45%.
FC Lisse host Rijnvogels in the Derde Divisie, Netherlands.
Our model gives FC Lisse a 35% chance of winning, a draw 21% and Rijnvogels 45%.
The model expects FC Lisse to score 1.8 goals and Rijnvogels 2.2.
FC Lisse have won 4 of their last 6 league matches; Rijnvogels have won 6 of 6.
Top factors
- FC Lisse sit 5th with 19 points; Rijnvogels sit 1st with 20 points.
- FC Lisse have taken 10 points from their last 5 matches; Rijnvogels 15 from 5.
- At home, FC Lisse have taken 7 points from their last 3; away, Rijnvogels have taken 9 from their last 3.
Chances and prices are from our nightly scan before the match. Nothing after that is used.
Key numbers, the table, form, head to head and more.
Our model's chance for each market. No bookmaker prices yet.
Yesterday: 4 of 4 picks won. See every pick
Today's picks
Today, Saturday 10 October
Times shown in your time (EDT)
Showing the top 20 of 26 picks, in kick-off order. 6 more are under Show all.Updating…
Starting in 3 to 6 hours (12)
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 71%
Average price 1.32
GENGenoaLLWDLFIOFiorentinaDWW
Expected goals (our model)FC Lisse 1.8, Rijnvogels 2.2 Context onlyTable position isn't in the model.
Where the teams sit in the Derde Divisie, before kick-off.
FC Lisse sit 5th with 19 points; Rijnvogels sit 1st with 20. A gap of 10 in goal difference, in favour of Rijnvogels.
Stored before 7 October 2026: wins, draws, losses and goals were not kept.
- 1st Rijnvogels20 points from 8 games · goal difference +18
- 2nd Excelsior '3119 points from 8 games · goal difference +16
- 4th Noordwijk19 points from 8 games · goal difference +13
- 5th FC Lisse19 points from 8 games · goal difference +8
- 6th VV Scherpenzeel19 points from 8 games · goal difference +6
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|
| 1 | Rijnvogels | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | +18 | 20 |
| 2 | Excelsior '31 | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | +16 | 19 |
| 4 | Noordwijk | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | +13 | 19 |
| 5 | FC Lisse | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | +8 | 19 |
| 6 | VV Scherpenzeel | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | +6 | 19 |
Show full tableShow less
- 1st Rijnvogels20 points from 8 games · goal difference +18
- 2nd Excelsior '3119 points from 8 games · goal difference +16
- 3rd ACV19 points from 8 games · goal difference +13
- 4th Noordwijk19 points from 8 games · goal difference +13
- 5th FC Lisse19 points from 8 games · goal difference +8
- 6th VV Scherpenzeel19 points from 8 games · goal difference +6
- 7th SC Genemuiden18 points from 8 games · goal difference +10
- 8th Excelsior Maassluis17 points from 8 games · goal difference +9
- 9th Harkemase Boys17 points from 8 games · goal difference +4
- 10th TEC16 points from 8 games · goal difference +11
- 11th Sportlust '46
Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.
Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
WWonat Gemert4 Oct 2026 · Derde Divisie · Away2–0
DDrewv EVV26 Sept 2026 · Derde Divisie · Home1–1
LLostat Zwaluwen19 Sept 2026 · Derde Divisie · Away0–1
WWonv TOGB12 Sept 2026 · Derde Divisie · Home3–2
WWonat Vvsb5 Sept 2026 · Derde Divisie · Away2–1
Show last 6 matchesShowing 6
WWonv Excelsior Maassluis29 Aug 2026 · Derde Divisie · Home1–0
Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.
Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
WWonv Groene Ster3 Oct 2026 · Derde Divisie · Home5–1
WWonat UDI '1927 Sept 2026 · Derde Divisie · Away4–0
WWonv Poortugaal19 Sept 2026 · Derde Divisie · Home1–0
WWonat UNA13 Sept 2026 · Derde Divisie · Away4–1
WWonv Dongen5 Sept 2026 · Derde Divisie · Home5–2
Show last 6 matchesShowing 6
WWonat GOES30 Aug 2026 · Derde Divisie · Away4–1
In the modelThe model rates each team's home and away records separately.
The last 5 and 10 matches, then FC Lisse at home and Rijnvogels away only: a home fixture is read from home matches where there are enough.
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
FC Lisse
- Last 5 (5)3 won, 1 drawn, 1 lost · 8 scored, 5 conceded · 2.00 points a game · 1 clean sheet · failed to score in 1
- Last 10 (6)4 won, 1 drawn, 1 lost · 9 scored, 5 conceded · 2.17 points a game · 2 clean sheets · failed to score in 1
- Home, last 5 (3)2 won, 1 drawn, 0 lost · 5 scored, 3 conceded · 2.33 points a game · 1 clean sheet · failed to score in 0
- Home, last 10 (3)2 won, 1 drawn, 0 lost · 5 scored, 3 conceded · 2.33 points a game · 1 clean sheet · failed to score in 0
FC Lisse| Sample | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | CS | FTS |
|---|
| Last 5 (5) | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 5 | +3 | 10 | 2.00 | 1 | 1 |
|---|
| Last 10 (6) | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 5 | +4 | 13 | 2.17 | 2 | 1 |
|---|
| Home, last 5 (3) | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 3 | +2 | 7 | 2.33 | 1 | 0 |
|---|
| Home, last 10 (3) | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 3 | +2 | 7 | 2.33 | 1 | 0 |
|---|
Rijnvogels
- Last 5 (5)5 won, 0 drawn, 0 lost · 19 scored, 4 conceded · 3.00 points a game · 2 clean sheets · failed to score in 0
- Last 10 (6)6 won, 0 drawn, 0 lost · 23 scored, 5 conceded · 3.00 points a game · 2 clean sheets · failed to score in 0
- Away, last 5 (3)3 won, 0 drawn, 0 lost · 12 scored, 2 conceded · 3.00 points a game · 1 clean sheet · failed to score in 0
- Away, last 10 (3)3 won, 0 drawn, 0 lost · 12 scored, 2 conceded · 3.00 points a game · 1 clean sheet · failed to score in 0
Rijnvogels| Sample | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | CS | FTS |
|---|
| Last 5 (5) | 5 | 5 |
|---|
FC Lisse at home: Insufficient historical data. Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
Rijnvogels away: Insufficient historical data. Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
Context onlyShown for context. The model's own ratings come from goals scored and conceded this season and last.
| Measure | FC Lisse | Rijnvogels |
|---|
| League position | 5th | 1st |
|---|
| Points per game | 2.38 | 2.50 |
|---|
| Attack: goals per game (last 6 and 6) | 1.50 | 3.83 |
|---|
| Defence: conceded per game (last 6 and 6) | 0.83 | 0.83 |
|---|
| Clean sheets | 2 | 2 |
|---|
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
In the modelMissing players move the model's expected goals, chiefly a missing top scorer.
Players out or doubtful, as reported the night before.
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GAEGO Ahead EaglesDDDLWSROSparta RotterdamLLDLD
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15 points from 8 games · goal difference +3
12th Sparta Nijkerk14 points from 8 games · goal difference +613th UDI '1914 points from 8 games · goal difference +514th Purmersteijn14 points from 8 games · goal difference +415th GOES14 points from 8 games · goal difference -116th Hoogeveen13 points from 8 games · goal difference +517th Dongen13 points from 8 games · goal difference +418th Zwaluwen13 points from 8 games · goal difference -319th Gemert10 points from 8 games · goal difference -120th ADO '2010 points from 8 games · goal difference -321st Blauw Geel9 points from 8 games · goal difference 022nd Roosendaal9 points from 8 games · goal difference -323rd Poortugaal9 points from 8 games · goal difference -524th Hercules9 points from 8 games · goal difference -825th UNA8 points from 8 games · goal difference -126th TOGB8 points from 8 games · goal difference -527th Vvsb7 points from 8 games · goal difference -628th Groene Ster6 points from 8 games · goal difference -829th DVS 33 Ermelo5 points from 8 games · goal difference -530th Dovo5 points from 8 games · goal difference -1031st Staphorst3 points from 8 games · goal difference -832nd Achilles Veen3 points from 8 games · goal difference -1333rd Eemdijk3 points from 7 games · goal difference -1734th EVV2 points from 8 games · goal difference -1135th Hollandia1 points from 7 games · goal difference -1036th SVZW1 points from 8 games · goal difference -17| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|
| 1 | Rijnvogels | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | +18 | 20 |
| 2 | Excelsior '31 | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | +16 | 19 |
| 3 | ACV | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | +13 | 19 |
| 4 | Noordwijk | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | +13 | 19 |
| 5 | FC Lisse | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | +8 | 19 |
| 6 | VV Scherpenzeel | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | +6 | 19 |
| 7 | SC Genemuiden | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | +10 | 18 |
| 8 | Excelsior Maassluis | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | +9 | 17 |
| 9 | Harkemase Boys | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | +4 | 17 |
| 10 | TEC | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | +11 | 16 |
| 11 | Sportlust '46 | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | +3 | 15 |
| 12 | Sparta Nijkerk | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | +6 | 14 |
| 13 | UDI '19 | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | +5 | 14 |
| 14 | Purmersteijn | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | +4 | 14 |
| 15 | GOES | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | -1 | 14 |
| 16 | Hoogeveen | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | +5 | 13 |
| 17 | Dongen | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | +4 | 13 |
| 18 | Zwaluwen | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | -3 | 13 |
| 19 | Gemert | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | -1 | 10 |
| 20 | ADO '20 | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | -3 | 10 |
| 21 | Blauw Geel | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | 0 | 9 |
| 22 | Roosendaal | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | -3 | 9 |
| 23 | Poortugaal | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | -5 | 9 |
| 24 | Hercules | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | -8 | 9 |
| 25 | UNA | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | -1 | 8 |
| 26 | TOGB | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | -5 | 8 |
| 27 | Vvsb | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | -6 | 7 |
| 28 | Groene Ster | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | -8 | 6 |
| 29 | DVS 33 Ermelo | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | -5 | 5 |
| 30 | Dovo | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | -10 | 5 |
| 31 | Staphorst | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | -8 | 3 |
| 32 | Achilles Veen | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | -13 | 3 |
| 33 | Eemdijk | 7 | – | – | – | – | – | -17 | 3 |
| 34 | EVV | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | -11 | 2 |
| 35 | Hollandia | 7 | – | – | – | – | – | -10 | 1 |
| 36 | SVZW | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | -17 | 1 |
| Last 10 (6) | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 23 | 5 | +18 | 18 | 3.00 | 2 | 0 |
|---|
| Away, last 5 (3) | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 2 | +10 | 9 | 3.00 | 1 | 0 |
|---|
| Away, last 10 (3) | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 2 | +10 | 9 | 3.00 | 1 | 0 |
|---|
D
· Germany - Bundesliga
Each of RB Leipzig's last 4 league matches had two or more goals.
L
· England - Premier League
4 of Manchester United's last 5 league matches had two or more goals.
W
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
Each of Feyenoord's last 6 league matches had three or more goals.
W
· Portugal - Primeira Liga
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D
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L
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Each of Ajax's last 7 league matches had two or more goals.
L
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