Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
78%win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 71%
Average price 1.32
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Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
78%win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 71%
Average price 1.32
· Brazil - Copa Santa Catarina
No pick for this match: no market passed our rules.
Chances of each result: Figueirense win 45%, Draw 23%, Hercílio Luz win 31%.
Figueirense host Hercílio Luz in the Copa Santa Catarina, Brazil.
Our model gives Figueirense a 45% chance of winning, a draw 23% and Hercílio Luz 31%.
The model expects Figueirense to score 1.8 goals and Hercílio Luz 1.5.
Figueirense have won 3 of their last 4 league matches; Hercílio Luz have won 3 of 4.
Chances and prices are from our nightly scan before the match. Nothing after that is used.
Our model's chance for each market. No bookmaker prices yet.
Last 5 games
· Italy - Serie A
Each of Fiorentina's last 5 league matches had two or more goals.
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
87%win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 93%
Average price 1.03
Last 5 games
· Germany - Bundesliga
Each of FC Augsburg's last 4 league matches had three or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
85%win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 85%
Average price 1.10
Last 5 games
· Germany - Bundesliga
Each of 1899 Hoffenheim's last 4 league matches had three or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
84%win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 87%
Average price 1.07
Last 5 games
· Germany - Bundesliga
3 of VfB Stuttgart's last 4 league matches had two or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
83%win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 82%
Average price 1.13
Last 5 games
· Germany - Bundesliga
Each of Union Berlin's last 4 league matches had three or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
81%win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 84%
Average price 1.11
Last 5 games
· Germany - Bundesliga
Each of Bayer Leverkusen's last 4 league matches had two or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
80%win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 83%
Average price 1.13
Last 5 games
· England - Premier League
Each of Chelsea's last 5 league matches had three or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
80%win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 79%
Average price 1.18
Last 5 games
· England - Championship
Each of Middlesbrough's last 4 home matches had three or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
77%win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 75%
Average price 1.25
Last 5 games
· England - Championship
Each of Millwall's last 8 league matches had two or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
77%win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 86%
Average price 1.08
Last 5 games
· Scotland - Premiership
The model expects Rangers to score 1.9 goals and Kilmarnock 0.9.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
77%win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 75%
Average price 1.25
Last 5 games
· Spain - La Liga
Each of Atletico Madrid's last 7 league matches had two or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
85%win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 85%
Average price 1.09
Last 5 games
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
Each of GO Ahead Eagles's last 7 league matches had two or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
81%win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 86%
Average price 1.08
Last 5 games
· Italy - Serie A
Each of Parma's last 4 league matches had two or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
89%win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 88%
Average price 1.05
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
78%win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 83%
Average price 1.12
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
85%win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 85%
Average price 1.10
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
78%win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 74%
Average price 1.25
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
85%win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 86%
Average price 1.09
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
86%win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 88%
Average price 1.06
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
83%win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 88%
Average price 1.05
Context onlyTable position isn't in the model.
Where the teams sit in the Copa Santa Catarina, before kick-off.
Figueirense sit 2nd with 10 points; Hercílio Luz sit 3rd with 9. They are level on goal difference.
Stored before 7 October 2026: wins, draws, losses and goals were not kept.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Marcílio Dias | 6 | – | – | – | – | – | +6 | 11 |
| 2 | Figueirense | 4 | – | – | – | – | – | +3 | 10 |
| 3 | Hercílio Luz | 4 | – | – | – | – | – | +3 | 9 |
| 4 | Joinville | 5 | – | – | – | – | – | +2 | 9 |
| # | Team |
|---|
Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.
Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.
Insufficient historical data. Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.
Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.
Insufficient historical data. Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
In the modelThe model rates each team's home and away records separately.
The last 5 and 10 matches, then Figueirense at home and Hercílio Luz away only: a home fixture is read from home matches where there are enough.
Insufficient historical data. Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
| Sample | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | CS | FTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (4) | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 2 | +3 | 10 | 2.50 | 2 | 0 |
| Last 10 (4) | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 2 | +3 | 10 | 2.50 | 2 | 0 |
| Home, last 5 (2) | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 4 | 2.00 | 1 | 0 |
| Home, last 10 (2) | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 4 | 2.00 | 1 | 0 |
| Sample | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | CS | FTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (4) | 4 | 3 |
Figueirense at home: Insufficient historical data. Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
Hercílio Luz away: Insufficient historical data. Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
Context onlyShown for context. The model's own ratings come from goals scored and conceded this season and last.
| Measure | Figueirense | Hercílio Luz |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 2nd | 3rd |
| Points per game | 2.50 | 2.25 |
| Attack: goals per game (last 4 and 4) | 1.25 | 2.75 |
| Defence: conceded per game (last 4 and 4) | 0.50 | 2.00 |
| Clean sheets | 2 | 0 |
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
In the modelMissing players move the model's expected goals, chiefly a missing top scorer.
Players out or doubtful, as reported the night before.
None reported.
None reported.
Last 5 games
· Germany - Bundesliga
Each of RB Leipzig's last 4 league matches had two or more goals.
Last 5 games
· England - Premier League
4 of Manchester United's last 5 league matches had two or more goals.
Last 5 games
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
Each of Feyenoord's last 6 league matches had three or more goals.
Last 5 games
· Portugal - Primeira Liga
Each of FC Porto's last 7 league matches had two or more goals.
Last 5 games
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
Each of Fortuna Sittard's last 3 home matches had two or more goals.
Last 5 games
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
Each of Ajax's last 7 league matches had two or more goals.
Last 5 games
· Spain - La Liga
Each of Villarreal's last 4 league matches had three or more goals.
| W |
|---|
| D |
|---|
| L |
|---|
| GF |
|---|
| GA |
|---|
| GD |
|---|
| Pts |
|---|
| 1 | Marcílio Dias | 6 | – | – | – | – | – | +6 | 11 |
| 2 | Figueirense | 4 | – | – | – | – | – | +3 | 10 |
| 3 | Hercílio Luz | 4 | – | – | – | – | – | +3 | 9 |
| 4 | Joinville | 5 | – | – | – | – | – | +2 | 9 |
| 5 | Santa Catarina | 4 | – | – | – | – | – | +1 | 7 |
| 6 | Barra | 4 | – | – | – | – | – | -1 | 3 |
| 7 | Metropolitano | 4 | – | – | – | – | – | -5 | 3 |
| 8 | Nação | 6 | – | – | – | – | – | -6 | 3 |
| 9 | Blumenau | 5 | – | – | – | – | – | -3 | 2 |
| 0 |
| 1 |
| 11 |
| 8 |
| +3 |
| 9 |
| 2.25 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Last 10 (4) | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 8 | +3 | 9 | 2.25 | 0 | 0 |
|---|
| Away, last 5 (2) | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 1.50 | 0 | 0 |
|---|
| Away, last 10 (2) | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 1.50 | 0 | 0 |
|---|