Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
78%win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 71%
Average price 1.32
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Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
78%win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 71%
Average price 1.32
Last 5 games
· Italy - Serie A
Each of Fiorentina's last 5 league matches had two or more goals.
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
87%win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 93%
Average price 1.03
Last 5 games
· Germany - Bundesliga
Each of FC Augsburg's last 4 league matches had three or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
85%win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 85%
Average price 1.10
Last 5 games
· Germany - Bundesliga
Each of 1899 Hoffenheim's last 4 league matches had three or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
84%win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 87%
Average price 1.07
Last 5 games
· Germany - Bundesliga
3 of VfB Stuttgart's last 4 league matches had two or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
83%win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 82%
Average price 1.13
Last 5 games
· Germany - Bundesliga
Each of Union Berlin's last 4 league matches had three or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
81%win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 84%
Average price 1.11
Last 5 games
· Germany - Bundesliga
Each of Bayer Leverkusen's last 4 league matches had two or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
80%win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 83%
Average price 1.13
Last 5 games
· England - Premier League
Each of Chelsea's last 5 league matches had three or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
80%win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 79%
Average price 1.18
Last 5 games
· England - Championship
Each of Middlesbrough's last 4 home matches had three or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
77%win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 75%
Average price 1.25
Last 5 games
· England - Championship
Each of Millwall's last 8 league matches had two or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
77%win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 86%
Average price 1.08
Last 5 games
· Scotland - Premiership
The model expects Rangers to score 1.9 goals and Kilmarnock 0.9.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
77%win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 75%
Average price 1.25
Last 5 games
· Spain - La Liga
Each of Atletico Madrid's last 7 league matches had two or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
85%win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 85%
Average price 1.09
Last 5 games
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
Each of GO Ahead Eagles's last 7 league matches had two or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
81%win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 86%
Average price 1.08
Last 5 games
· Italy - Serie A
Each of Parma's last 4 league matches had two or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
89%win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 88%
Average price 1.05
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
78%win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 83%
Average price 1.12
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
85%win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 85%
Average price 1.10
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
78%win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 74%
Average price 1.25
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
85%win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 86%
Average price 1.09
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
86%win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 88%
Average price 1.06
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
83%win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 88%
Average price 1.05
· Kazakhstan - Premier League
No pick for this match: no market passed our rules.
Chances of each result: FK Tobol Kostanay win 40%, Draw 27%, FC Astana win 33%.
FK Tobol Kostanay host FC Astana in the Premier League, Kazakhstan.
Our model gives FK Tobol Kostanay a 40% chance of winning, a draw 27% and FC Astana 33%.
The model expects FK Tobol Kostanay to score 1.4 goals and FC Astana 1.3.
FK Tobol Kostanay have won 4 of their last 6 league matches; FC Astana have won 4 of 6.
Chances and prices are from our nightly scan before the match. Nothing after that is used.
Our model's chance for each market, with the bookmakers' average price.
Last 5 games
· Germany - Bundesliga
Each of RB Leipzig's last 4 league matches had two or more goals.
Last 5 games
· England - Premier League
4 of Manchester United's last 5 league matches had two or more goals.
Last 5 games
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
Each of Feyenoord's last 6 league matches had three or more goals.
Last 5 games
· Portugal - Primeira Liga
Each of FC Porto's last 7 league matches had two or more goals.
Last 5 games
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
Each of Fortuna Sittard's last 3 home matches had two or more goals.
Last 5 games
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
Each of Ajax's last 7 league matches had two or more goals.
Last 5 games
· Spain - La Liga
Each of Villarreal's last 4 league matches had three or more goals.
Context onlyTable position isn't in the model.
Where the teams sit in the Premier League, before kick-off.
FK Tobol Kostanay sit 7th with 34 points; FC Astana sit 3rd with 48. A gap of 19 in goal difference, in favour of FC Astana; FK Tobol Kostanay have played 1 more.
Stored before 7 October 2026: wins, draws, losses and goals were not kept.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Kairat Almaty | 26 | – | – | – | – | – | +31 | 57 |
| 3 | FC Astana | 25 | – | – | – | – | – | +17 | 48 |
| 4 | Okzhetpes | 26 | – | – | – | – | – | +6 | 45 |
| 6 | Yelimay Semey | 25 | – | – | – | – | – | +2 | 38 |
| 7 | FK Tobol Kostanay | 26 | – | – | – | – | – | -2 | 34 |
| 8 | Zhenys | 26 | – | – | – | – | – | -6 |
Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.
Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.
Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
In the modelThe model rates each team's home and away records separately.
The last 5 and 10 matches, then FK Tobol Kostanay at home and FC Astana away only: a home fixture is read from home matches where there are enough.
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
| Sample | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | CS | FTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (5) | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 7 | +3 | 9 | 1.80 | 0 | 2 |
| Last 10 (6) | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 7 | +5 | 12 | 2.00 | 1 | 2 |
| Home, last 5 (3) | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 5 | +1 | 6 | 2.00 | 0 | 1 |
| Home, last 10 (3) | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 5 | +1 | 6 | 2.00 | 0 | 1 |
| Sample | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | CS | FTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (5) | 5 | 3 |
FK Tobol Kostanay at home: Insufficient historical data. Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
FC Astana away: Insufficient historical data. Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
Context onlyShown for context. The model's own ratings come from goals scored and conceded this season and last.
| Measure | FK Tobol Kostanay | FC Astana |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 7th | 3rd |
| Points per game | 1.31 | 1.92 |
| Attack: goals per game (last 6 and 6) | 2.00 | 1.83 |
| Defence: conceded per game (last 6 and 6) | 1.17 | 0.83 |
| Clean sheets | 1 | 2 |
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
In the modelMissing players move the model's expected goals, chiefly a missing top scorer.
Players out or doubtful, as reported the night before.
None reported.
None reported.
| 32 |
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ordabasy | 26 | – | – | – | – | – | +33 | 61 |
| 2 | Kairat Almaty | 26 | – | – | – | – | – | +31 | 57 |
| 3 | FC Astana | 25 | – | – | – | – | – | +17 | 48 |
| 4 | Okzhetpes | 26 | – | – | – | – | – | +6 | 45 |
| 5 | Aktobe | 26 | – | – | – | – | – | +7 | 42 |
| 6 | Yelimay Semey | 25 | – | – | – | – | – | +2 | 38 |
| 7 | FK Tobol Kostanay | 26 | – | – | – | – | – | -2 | 34 |
| 8 | Zhenys | 26 | – | – | – | – | – | -6 | 32 |
| 9 | Ulytau | 26 | – | – | – | – | – | -8 | 32 |
| 10 | Kaspiy | 26 | – | – | – | – | – | -9 | 29 |
| 11 | Irtysh | 25 | – | – | – | – | – | -8 | 26 |
| 12 | Kyzyl-Zhar | 26 | – | – | – | – | – | -11 | 25 |
| 13 | Kaisar | 26 | – | – | – | – | – | -11 | 24 |
| 14 | Atyrau | 25 | – | – | – | – | – | -10 | 23 |
| 15 | Altay | 26 | – | – | – | – | – | -13 | 23 |
| 16 | Zhetysu | 26 | – | – | – | – | – | -18 | 22 |
| 1 |
| 1 |
| 9 |
| 4 |
| +5 |
| 10 |
| 2.00 |
| 2 |
| 1 |
| Last 10 (6) | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 5 | +6 | 13 | 2.17 | 2 | 1 |
|---|
| Away, last 5 (3) | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 1.33 | 0 | 1 |
|---|
| Away, last 10 (3) | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 1.33 | 0 | 1 |
|---|