Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
78%win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 71%
Average price 1.32
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Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
78%win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 71%
Average price 1.32
· England - National League
No pick for this match: no market passed our rules.
Chances of each result: Forest Green win 58%, Draw 23%, Hartlepool win 20%.
Forest Green host Hartlepool in the National League, England.
Our model gives Forest Green a 58% chance of winning, a draw 23% and Hartlepool 20%.
The model expects Forest Green to score 1.9 goals and Hartlepool 0.9.
Forest Green have won 2 of their last 6 league matches; Hartlepool have won 0 of 6.
Chances and prices are from our nightly scan before the match. Nothing after that is used.
Our model's chance for each market, with the bookmakers' average price.
Last 5 games
· Italy - Serie A
Each of Fiorentina's last 5 league matches had two or more goals.
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
87%win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 93%
Average price 1.03
Last 5 games
· Germany - Bundesliga
Each of FC Augsburg's last 4 league matches had three or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
85%win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 85%
Average price 1.10
Last 5 games
· Germany - Bundesliga
Each of 1899 Hoffenheim's last 4 league matches had three or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
84%win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 87%
Average price 1.07
Last 5 games
· Germany - Bundesliga
3 of VfB Stuttgart's last 4 league matches had two or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
83%win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 82%
Average price 1.13
Last 5 games
· Germany - Bundesliga
Each of Union Berlin's last 4 league matches had three or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
81%win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 84%
Average price 1.11
Last 5 games
· Germany - Bundesliga
Each of Bayer Leverkusen's last 4 league matches had two or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
80%win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 83%
Average price 1.13
Last 5 games
· England - Premier League
Each of Chelsea's last 5 league matches had three or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
80%win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 79%
Average price 1.18
Last 5 games
· England - Championship
Each of Middlesbrough's last 4 home matches had three or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
77%win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 75%
Average price 1.25
Last 5 games
· England - Championship
Each of Millwall's last 8 league matches had two or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
77%win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 86%
Average price 1.08
Last 5 games
· Scotland - Premiership
The model expects Rangers to score 1.9 goals and Kilmarnock 0.9.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
77%win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 75%
Average price 1.25
Last 5 games
· Spain - La Liga
Each of Atletico Madrid's last 7 league matches had two or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
85%win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 85%
Average price 1.09
Last 5 games
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
Each of GO Ahead Eagles's last 7 league matches had two or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
81%win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 86%
Average price 1.08
Last 5 games
· Italy - Serie A
Each of Parma's last 4 league matches had two or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
89%win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 88%
Average price 1.05
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
78%win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 83%
Average price 1.12
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
85%win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 85%
Average price 1.10
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
78%win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 74%
Average price 1.25
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
85%win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 86%
Average price 1.09
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
86%win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 88%
Average price 1.06
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
83%win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 88%
Average price 1.05
Context onlyTable position isn't in the model.
Where the teams sit in the National League, before kick-off.
Forest Green sit 16th with 15 points; Hartlepool sit 22nd with 9. A gap of 8 in goal difference, in favour of Forest Green; Forest Green have played 1 fewer.
Stored before 7 October 2026: wins, draws, losses and goals were not kept.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Woking | 12 | – | – | – | – | – | +1 | 15 |
| 16 | Forest Green | 11 | – | – | – | – | – | -1 | 15 |
| 17 | Eastleigh | 12 | – | – | – | – | – | -4 | 15 |
| 21 | Scunthorpe | 11 | – | – | – | – | – | -4 | 10 |
| 22 | Hartlepool | 12 | – | – | – | – | – | -9 | 9 |
| 23 | Solihull Moors | 12 | – | – | – | – | – | -17 |
Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.
Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.
Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
In the modelThe model rates each team's home and away records separately.
The last 5 and 10 matches, then Forest Green at home and Hartlepool away only: a home fixture is read from home matches where there are enough.
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
| Sample | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | CS | FTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (5) | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 10 | 8 | +2 | 6 | 1.20 | 1 | 0 |
| Last 10 (6) | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 11 | 8 | +3 | 9 | 1.50 | 2 | 0 |
| Home, last 5 (3) | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 4 | +2 | 4 | 1.33 | 1 | 0 |
| Home, last 10 (3) | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 4 | +2 | 4 | 1.33 | 1 | 0 |
| Sample | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | CS | FTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (5) | 5 | 0 |
Forest Green at home: Insufficient historical data. Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
Hartlepool away: Insufficient historical data. Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
Context onlyShown for context. The model's own ratings come from goals scored and conceded this season and last.
| Measure | Forest Green | Hartlepool |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 16th | 22nd |
| Points per game | 1.36 | 0.75 |
| Attack: goals per game (last 6 and 6) | 1.83 | 0.50 |
| Defence: conceded per game (last 6 and 6) | 1.33 | 2.17 |
| Clean sheets | 2 | 0 |
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
In the modelMissing players move the model's expected goals, chiefly a missing top scorer.
Players out or doubtful, as reported the night before.
None reported.
None reported.
Last 5 games
· Germany - Bundesliga
Each of RB Leipzig's last 4 league matches had two or more goals.
Last 5 games
· England - Premier League
4 of Manchester United's last 5 league matches had two or more goals.
Last 5 games
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
Each of Feyenoord's last 6 league matches had three or more goals.
Last 5 games
· Portugal - Primeira Liga
Each of FC Porto's last 7 league matches had two or more goals.
Last 5 games
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
Each of Fortuna Sittard's last 3 home matches had two or more goals.
Last 5 games
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
Each of Ajax's last 7 league matches had two or more goals.
Last 5 games
· Spain - La Liga
Each of Villarreal's last 4 league matches had three or more goals.
| 7 |
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Boreham Wood | 13 | – | – | – | – | – | +21 | 35 |
| 2 | Harrogate Town | 12 | – | – | – | – | – | +11 | 25 |
| 3 | Southend | 12 | – | – | – | – | – | +11 | 24 |
| 4 | Yeovil Town | 12 | – | – | – | – | – | +11 | 22 |
| 5 | Worthing | 12 | – | – | – | – | – | +4 | 21 |
| 6 | Altrincham | 12 | – | – | – | – | – | -1 | 21 |
| 7 | AFC Fylde | 12 | – | – | – | – | – | +4 | 20 |
| 8 | Kidderminster Harriers | 12 | – | – | – | – | – | +3 | 19 |
| 9 | Barrow | 12 | – | – | – | – | – | +5 | 18 |
| 10 | Aldershot Town | 12 | – | – | – | – | – | +4 | 18 |
| 11 | Sutton Utd | 13 | – | – | – | – | – | -4 | 18 |
| 12 | AFC Hornchurch | 12 | – | – | – | – | – | -6 | 18 |
| 13 | FC Halifax Town | 12 | – | – | – | – | – | +4 | 17 |
| 14 | Carlisle | 12 | – | – | – | – | – | +3 | 16 |
| 15 | Woking | 12 | – | – | – | – | – | +1 | 15 |
| 16 | Forest Green | 11 | – | – | – | – | – | -1 | 15 |
| 17 | Eastleigh | 12 | – | – | – | – | – | -4 | 15 |
| 18 | Tamworth | 12 | – | – | – | – | – | -8 | 14 |
| 19 | Wealdstone | 12 | – | – | – | – | – | -1 | 12 |
| 20 | Boston United | 12 | – | – | – | – | – | -7 | 12 |
| 21 | Scunthorpe | 11 | – | – | – | – | – | -4 | 10 |
| 22 | Hartlepool | 12 | – | – | – | – | – | -9 | 9 |
| 23 | Solihull Moors | 12 | – | – | – | – | – | -17 | 7 |
| 24 | Gateshead | 12 | – | – | – | – | – | -20 | 4 |
| 0 |
| 5 |
| 3 |
| 11 |
| -8 |
| 0 |
| 0.00 |
| 0 |
| 2 |
| Last 10 (6) | 6 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 3 | 13 | -10 | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 3 |
|---|
| Away, last 5 (3) | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 8 | -6 | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 1 |
|---|
| Away, last 10 (3) | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 8 | -6 | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 1 |
|---|