Fortuna Köln vs FC Saarbrücken prediction, Saturday 10 October: chances and analysisBack to today's picks
· Germany - 3. Liga
Fortuna Köln v FC SaarbrückenHomevAwayHomevAway
No pick for this match: no market passed our rules.
Our model's chances
Chances of each result: Fortuna Köln win 32%, Draw 24%, FC Saarbrücken win 44%.
Fortuna Köln host FC Saarbrücken in the 3. Liga, Germany.
Our model gives Fortuna Köln a 32% chance of winning, a draw 24% and FC Saarbrücken 44%.
The model expects Fortuna Köln to score 1.4 goals and FC Saarbrücken 1.7.
Fortuna Köln have won 2 of their last 6 league matches; FC Saarbrücken have won 3 of 6.
Top factors
- Fortuna Köln sit 12th with 9 points; FC Saarbrücken sit 4th with 13 points.
- Fortuna Köln have taken 8 points from their last 5 matches; FC Saarbrücken 7 from 5.
- At home, Fortuna Köln have taken 2 points from their last 3; away, FC Saarbrücken have taken 7 from their last 3.
Chances and prices are from our nightly scan before the match. Nothing after that is used.
Key numbers, the table, form, head to head and more.
Our model's chance for each market, with the bookmakers' average price.
- Fortuna Köln win
- 32% · price 3.15
FC Saarbrücken win44% · price 1.97 Over 1.5 goals79% · price 1.17 Over 2.5 goals58% · price 1.56 Both teams score55% · price 1.50 Expected goals (our model)Fortuna Köln 1.4, FC Saarbrücken 1.7 Context onlyTable position isn't in the model.
Where the teams sit in the 3. Liga, before kick-off.
Fortuna Köln sit 12th with 9 points; FC Saarbrücken sit 4th with 13. A gap of 7 in goal difference, in favour of FC Saarbrücken.
Stored before 7 October 2026: wins, draws, losses and goals were not kept.
- 3rd Rot-Weiß Essen15 points from 8 games · goal difference +4
- 4th FC Saarbrücken13 points from 7 games · goal difference +7
- 5th Hoffenheim II13 points from 7 games · goal difference +6
- 11th Verl10 points from 7 games · goal difference -3
- 12th Fortuna Köln9 points from 7 games · goal difference 0
- 13th SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach8 points from 7 games · goal difference -3
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|
| 3 | Rot-Weiß Essen | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | +4 | 15 |
| 4 | FC Saarbrücken | 7 | – | – | – | – | – | +7 | 13 |
| 5 | Hoffenheim II | 7 | – | – | – | – | – | +6 | 13 |
| 11 | Verl | 7 | – | – | – | – | – | -3 | 10 |
| 12 | Fortuna Köln | 7 | – | – | – | – | – | 0 | 9 |
| 13 | SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach | 7 | – | – | – | – | – | -3 |
Show full tableShow less
- 1st MSV Duisburg18 points from 7 games · goal difference +12
- 2nd FC Viktoria Köln15 points from 7 games · goal difference +10
- 3rd Rot-Weiß Essen15 points from 8 games · goal difference +4
- 4th FC Saarbrücken13 points from 7 games · goal difference +7
- 5th Hoffenheim II13 points from 7 games · goal difference +6
- 6th Hansa Rostock12 points from 7 games · goal difference 0
- 7th Preußen Münster12 points from 8 games · goal difference -1
- 8th Alemannia Aachen11 points from 7 games · goal difference +3
- 9th Waldhof Mannheim10 points from 7 games · goal difference +1
- 10th Fortuna Düsseldorf10 points from 7 games · goal difference -1
- 11th
Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.
Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
WWonat Havelse25 Sept 2026 · 3. Liga · Away3–1
LLostv SV Wehen16 Sept 2026 · 3. Liga · Home0–2
DDrewat Hoffenheim II13 Sept 2026 · 3. Liga · Away2–2
DDrewv Fortuna Düsseldorf6 Sept 2026 · 3. Liga · Home0–0
WWonat Verl29 Aug 2026 · 3. Liga · Away2–1
Show last 6 matchesShowing 6
DDrewv Alemannia Aachen15 Aug 2026 · 3. Liga · Home1–1
Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.
Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
WWonv SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach19 Sept 2026 · 3. Liga · Home2–1
DDrewat Preußen Münster16 Sept 2026 · 3. Liga · Away3–3
LLostv FC Ingolstadt 0412 Sept 2026 · 3. Liga · Home0–1
WWonat SV Meppen5 Sept 2026 · 3. Liga · Away6–1
LLostv Hansa Rostock30 Aug 2026 · 3. Liga · Home2–4
Show last 6 matchesShowing 6
WWonat SSV Jahn Regensburg16 Aug 2026 · 3. Liga · Away1–0
In the modelThe model rates each team's home and away records separately.
The last 5 and 10 matches, then Fortuna Köln at home and FC Saarbrücken away only: a home fixture is read from home matches where there are enough.
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
Fortuna Köln
- Last 5 (5)2 won, 2 drawn, 1 lost · 7 scored, 6 conceded · 1.60 points a game · 1 clean sheet · failed to score in 2
- Last 10 (6)2 won, 3 drawn, 1 lost · 8 scored, 7 conceded · 1.50 points a game · 1 clean sheet · failed to score in 2
- Home, last 5 (3)0 won, 2 drawn, 1 lost · 1 scored, 3 conceded · 0.67 points a game · 1 clean sheet · failed to score in 2
- Home, last 10 (3)0 won, 2 drawn, 1 lost · 1 scored, 3 conceded · 0.67 points a game · 1 clean sheet · failed to score in 2
Fortuna Köln| Sample | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | CS | FTS |
|---|
| Last 5 (5) | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 6 | +1 | 8 | 1.60 | 1 | 2 |
|---|
| Last 10 (6) | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 7 | +1 | 9 | 1.50 | 1 | 2 |
|---|
| Home, last 5 (3) | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 2 | 0.67 | 1 | 2 |
|---|
| Home, last 10 (3) | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 2 | 0.67 | 1 | 2 |
|---|
FC Saarbrücken
- Last 5 (5)2 won, 1 drawn, 2 lost · 13 scored, 10 conceded · 1.40 points a game · 0 clean sheets · failed to score in 1
- Last 10 (6)3 won, 1 drawn, 2 lost · 14 scored, 10 conceded · 1.67 points a game · 1 clean sheet · failed to score in 1
- Away, last 5 (3)2 won, 1 drawn, 0 lost · 10 scored, 4 conceded · 2.33 points a game · 1 clean sheet · failed to score in 0
- Away, last 10 (3)2 won, 1 drawn, 0 lost · 10 scored, 4 conceded · 2.33 points a game · 1 clean sheet · failed to score in 0
FC Saarbrücken| Sample | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | CS | FTS |
|---|
| Last 5 (5) | 5 | 2 |
|---|
Fortuna Köln at home: Insufficient historical data. Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
FC Saarbrücken away: Insufficient historical data. Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
Context onlyShown for context. The model's own ratings come from goals scored and conceded this season and last.
| Measure | Fortuna Köln | FC Saarbrücken |
|---|
| League position | 12th | 4th |
|---|
| Points per game | 1.29 | 1.86 |
|---|
| Attack: goals per game (last 6 and 6) | 1.33 | 2.33 |
|---|
| Defence: conceded per game (last 6 and 6) | 1.17 | 1.67 |
|---|
| Clean sheets | 1 | 1 |
|---|
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
In the modelMissing players move the model's expected goals, chiefly a missing top scorer.
Players out or doubtful, as reported the night before.
Fortuna Köln
None reported.
FC Saarbrücken
None reported.
Context onlyFacts pointing the other way. The model doesn't read them.
Evidence pointing the other way.
- Fortuna Köln have the better recent form: 8 points from 5 against 7 from 5.
Yesterday: 4 of 4 picks won. See every pick
Today's picks
Today, Saturday 10 October
Times shown in your time (EDT)
Showing the top 20 of 26 picks, in kick-off order. 6 more are under Show all.Updating…
Starting in 3 to 6 hours (12)
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 71%
Average price 1.32
GENGenoaLLWDLFIOFiorentinaDWW
Verl
10 points from 7 games · goal difference -3
12th Fortuna Köln9 points from 7 games · goal difference 013th SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach8 points from 7 games · goal difference -314th FC Ingolstadt 048 points from 7 games · goal difference -415th Stuttgart II7 points from 7 games · goal difference -316th Würzburger Kickers7 points from 7 games · goal difference -417th SV Meppen6 points from 7 games · goal difference -718th SSV Jahn Regensburg5 points from 7 games · goal difference -419th SV Wehen5 points from 7 games · goal difference -820th Havelse4 points from 7 games · goal difference -5| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|
| 1 | MSV Duisburg | 7 | – | – | – | – | – | +12 | 18 |
| 2 | FC Viktoria Köln | 7 | – | – | – | – | – | +10 | 15 |
| 3 | Rot-Weiß Essen | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | +4 | 15 |
| 4 | FC Saarbrücken | 7 | – | – | – | – | – | +7 | 13 |
| 5 | Hoffenheim II | 7 | – | – | – | – | – | +6 | 13 |
| 6 | Hansa Rostock | 7 | – | – | – | – | – | 0 | 12 |
| 7 | Preußen Münster | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | -1 | 12 |
| 8 | Alemannia Aachen | 7 | – | – | – | – | – | +3 | 11 |
| 9 | Waldhof Mannheim | 7 | – | – | – | – | – | +1 | 10 |
| 10 | Fortuna Düsseldorf | 7 | – | – | – | – | – | -1 | 10 |
| 11 | Verl | 7 | – | – | – | – | – | -3 | 10 |
| 12 | Fortuna Köln | 7 | – | – | – | – | – | 0 | 9 |
| 13 | SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach | 7 | – | – | – | – | – | -3 | 8 |
| 14 | FC Ingolstadt 04 | 7 | – | – | – | – | – | -4 | 8 |
| 15 | Stuttgart II | 7 | – | – | – | – | – | -3 | 7 |
| 16 | Würzburger Kickers | 7 | – | – | – | – | – | -4 | 7 |
| 17 | SV Meppen | 7 | – | – | – | – | – | -7 | 6 |
| 18 | SSV Jahn Regensburg | 7 | – | – | – | – | – | -4 | 5 |
| 19 | SV Wehen | 7 | – | – | – | – | – | -8 | 5 |
| 20 | Havelse | 7 | – | – | – | – | – | -5 | 4 |
| Last 10 (6) | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 14 | 10 | +4 | 10 | 1.67 | 1 | 1 |
|---|
| Away, last 5 (3) | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 4 | +6 | 7 | 2.33 | 1 | 0 |
|---|
| Away, last 10 (3) | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 4 | +6 | 7 | 2.33 | 1 | 0 |
|---|
L
L
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Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
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See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
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UBEUnion BerlinWLLLDELVSV ElversbergLDLWW
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See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
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CHEChelseaLDWLWBOUBournemouthLWDWD
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PREPrestonDLLWLMILMillwallDDLLW
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See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 86%
Average price 1.08
RANRangersWWWWWKILKilmarnockDWDDL
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win chance
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ALAAlavesDLLWWAMAAtletico MadridWWWLL
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GAEGO Ahead EaglesDDDLWSROSparta RotterdamLLDLD
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See the full analysisStarting later (8)
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
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Average price 1.08
INTInterWDWLWPARParmaWLDLL
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Average price 1.05
RLERB LeipzigLWLLWEFREintracht FrankfurtWDWL
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Average price 1.12
MANManchester UnitedDLLWDTOTTottenhamLLDD
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Average price 1.10
FEYFeyenoordWWLWDAALAZ AlkmaarWLDW
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Average price 1.25
MARMaritimoDLLLDPORFC PortoWWWL
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Average price 1.09
FSIFortuna SittardWWLWWTWETwenteWWWW
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
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AJAAjaxDWWLWNNINEC NijmegenDLLD
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RMAReal MadridLWWWLVILVillarrealWWLL
D
· Germany - Bundesliga
Each of RB Leipzig's last 4 league matches had two or more goals.
L
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W
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
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W
· Portugal - Primeira Liga
Each of FC Porto's last 7 league matches had two or more goals.
D
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L
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L
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