Hercules vs Sportlust '46 prediction, Saturday 10 October: chances and analysisBack to today's picks
· Netherlands - Derde Divisie
Hercules v Sportlust '46HomevAwayHomevAway
No pick for this match: no market passed our rules.
Our model's chances
Chances of each result: Hercules win 38%, Draw 23%, Sportlust '46 win 39%.
Hercules host Sportlust '46 in the Derde Divisie, Netherlands.
Our model gives Hercules a 38% chance of winning, a draw 23% and Sportlust '46 39%.
The model expects Hercules to score 1.7 goals and Sportlust '46 1.8.
Hercules have won 3 of their last 6 league matches; Sportlust '46 have won 4 of 6.
Top factors
- Hercules sit 24th with 9 points; Sportlust '46 sit 11th with 15 points.
- Hercules have taken 9 points from their last 5 matches; Sportlust '46 10 from 5.
- At home, Hercules have taken 3 points from their last 3; away, Sportlust '46 have taken 9 from their last 3.
Chances and prices are from our nightly scan before the match. Nothing after that is used.
Key numbers, the table, form, head to head and more.
Our model's chance for each market. No bookmaker prices yet.
Expected goals (our model)Hercules 1.7, Sportlust '46 1.8 Context onlyTable position isn't in the model.
Where the teams sit in the Derde Divisie, before kick-off.
Hercules sit 24th with 9 points; Sportlust '46 sit 11th with 15. A gap of 11 in goal difference, in favour of Sportlust '46.
Stored before 7 October 2026: wins, draws, losses and goals were not kept.
- 10th TEC16 points from 8 games · goal difference +11
- 11th Sportlust '4615 points from 8 games · goal difference +3
- 12th Sparta Nijkerk14 points from 8 games · goal difference +6
- 23rd Poortugaal9 points from 8 games · goal difference -5
- 24th Hercules9 points from 8 games · goal difference -8
- 25th UNA8 points from 8 games · goal difference -1
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|
| 10 | TEC | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | +11 | 16 |
| 11 | Sportlust '46 | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | +3 | 15 |
| 12 | Sparta Nijkerk | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | +6 | 14 |
| 23 | Poortugaal | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | -5 | 9 |
| 24 | Hercules | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | -8 | 9 |
| 25 | UNA | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | -1 | 8 |
Show full tableShow less
- 1st Rijnvogels20 points from 8 games · goal difference +18
- 2nd Excelsior '3119 points from 8 games · goal difference +16
- 3rd ACV19 points from 8 games · goal difference +13
- 4th Noordwijk19 points from 8 games · goal difference +13
- 5th FC Lisse19 points from 8 games · goal difference +8
- 6th VV Scherpenzeel19 points from 8 games · goal difference +6
- 7th SC Genemuiden18 points from 8 games · goal difference +10
- 8th Excelsior Maassluis17 points from 8 games · goal difference +9
- 9th Harkemase Boys17 points from 8 games · goal difference +4
- 10th TEC16 points from 8 games · goal difference +11
- 11th Sportlust '46
Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.
Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
WWonv DVS 33 Ermelo3 Oct 2026 · Derde Divisie · Home1–0
WWonat Hollandia27 Sept 2026 · Derde Divisie · Away3–0
LLostv TEC20 Sept 2026 · Derde Divisie · Home2–4
WWonat Sparta Nijkerk12 Sept 2026 · Derde Divisie · Away2–1
LLostv ACV5 Sept 2026 · Derde Divisie · Home0–3
Show last 6 matchesShowing 6
LLostat Harkemase Boys29 Aug 2026 · Derde Divisie · Away3–5
Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.
Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
LLostv Excelsior '313 Oct 2026 · Derde Divisie · Home0–3
WWonat DVS 33 Ermelo26 Sept 2026 · Derde Divisie · Away2–1
WWonv Dovo19 Sept 2026 · Derde Divisie · Home2–0
WWonat Hollandia12 Sept 2026 · Derde Divisie · Away4–2
DDrewv Hoogeveen5 Sept 2026 · Derde Divisie · Home2–2
Show last 6 matchesShowing 6
WWonat TEC29 Aug 2026 · Derde Divisie · Away2–1
In the modelThe model rates each team's home and away records separately.
The last 5 and 10 matches, then Hercules at home and Sportlust '46 away only: a home fixture is read from home matches where there are enough.
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
Hercules
- Last 5 (5)3 won, 0 drawn, 2 lost · 8 scored, 8 conceded · 1.80 points a game · 2 clean sheets · failed to score in 1
- Last 10 (6)3 won, 0 drawn, 3 lost · 11 scored, 13 conceded · 1.50 points a game · 2 clean sheets · failed to score in 1
- Home, last 5 (3)1 won, 0 drawn, 2 lost · 3 scored, 7 conceded · 1.00 points a game · 1 clean sheet · failed to score in 1
- Home, last 10 (3)1 won, 0 drawn, 2 lost · 3 scored, 7 conceded · 1.00 points a game · 1 clean sheet · failed to score in 1
Hercules| Sample | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | CS | FTS |
|---|
| Last 5 (5) | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 9 | 1.80 | 2 | 1 |
|---|
| Last 10 (6) | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 11 | 13 | -2 | 9 | 1.50 | 2 | 1 |
|---|
| Home, last 5 (3) | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 3 | 1.00 | 1 | 1 |
|---|
| Home, last 10 (3) | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 3 | 1.00 | 1 | 1 |
|---|
Sportlust '46
- Last 5 (5)3 won, 1 drawn, 1 lost · 10 scored, 8 conceded · 2.00 points a game · 1 clean sheet · failed to score in 1
- Last 10 (6)4 won, 1 drawn, 1 lost · 12 scored, 9 conceded · 2.17 points a game · 1 clean sheet · failed to score in 1
- Away, last 5 (3)3 won, 0 drawn, 0 lost · 8 scored, 4 conceded · 3.00 points a game · 0 clean sheets · failed to score in 0
- Away, last 10 (3)3 won, 0 drawn, 0 lost · 8 scored, 4 conceded · 3.00 points a game · 0 clean sheets · failed to score in 0
Sportlust '46| Sample | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | CS | FTS |
|---|
| Last 5 (5) | 5 | 3 |
|---|
Hercules at home: Insufficient historical data. Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
Sportlust '46 away: Insufficient historical data. Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
Context onlyShown for context. The model's own ratings come from goals scored and conceded this season and last.
| Measure | Hercules | Sportlust '46 |
|---|
| League position | 24th | 11th |
|---|
| Points per game | 1.13 | 1.88 |
|---|
| Attack: goals per game (last 6 and 6) | 1.83 | 2.00 |
|---|
| Defence: conceded per game (last 6 and 6) | 2.17 | 1.50 |
|---|
| Clean sheets | 2 | 1 |
|---|
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
In the modelMissing players move the model's expected goals, chiefly a missing top scorer.
Players out or doubtful, as reported the night before.
Sportlust '46
None reported.
Yesterday: 4 of 4 picks won. See every pick
Today's picks
Today, Saturday 10 October
Times shown in your time (EDT)
Showing the top 20 of 26 picks, in kick-off order. 6 more are under Show all.Updating…
Starting in 3 to 6 hours (12)
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 71%
Average price 1.32
GENGenoaLLWDLFIOFiorentinaDWW
15 points from 8 games · goal difference +3
12th Sparta Nijkerk14 points from 8 games · goal difference +613th UDI '1914 points from 8 games · goal difference +514th Purmersteijn14 points from 8 games · goal difference +415th GOES14 points from 8 games · goal difference -116th Hoogeveen13 points from 8 games · goal difference +517th Dongen13 points from 8 games · goal difference +418th Zwaluwen13 points from 8 games · goal difference -319th Gemert10 points from 8 games · goal difference -120th ADO '2010 points from 8 games · goal difference -321st Blauw Geel9 points from 8 games · goal difference 022nd Roosendaal9 points from 8 games · goal difference -323rd Poortugaal9 points from 8 games · goal difference -524th Hercules9 points from 8 games · goal difference -825th UNA8 points from 8 games · goal difference -126th TOGB8 points from 8 games · goal difference -527th Vvsb7 points from 8 games · goal difference -628th Groene Ster6 points from 8 games · goal difference -829th DVS 33 Ermelo5 points from 8 games · goal difference -530th Dovo5 points from 8 games · goal difference -1031st Staphorst3 points from 8 games · goal difference -832nd Achilles Veen3 points from 8 games · goal difference -1333rd Eemdijk3 points from 7 games · goal difference -1734th EVV2 points from 8 games · goal difference -1135th Hollandia1 points from 7 games · goal difference -1036th SVZW1 points from 8 games · goal difference -17| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|
| 1 | Rijnvogels | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | +18 | 20 |
| 2 | Excelsior '31 | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | +16 | 19 |
| 3 | ACV | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | +13 | 19 |
| 4 | Noordwijk | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | +13 | 19 |
| 5 | FC Lisse | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | +8 | 19 |
| 6 | VV Scherpenzeel | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | +6 | 19 |
| 7 | SC Genemuiden | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | +10 | 18 |
| 8 | Excelsior Maassluis | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | +9 | 17 |
| 9 | Harkemase Boys | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | +4 | 17 |
| 10 | TEC | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | +11 | 16 |
| 11 | Sportlust '46 | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | +3 | 15 |
| 12 | Sparta Nijkerk | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | +6 | 14 |
| 13 | UDI '19 | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | +5 | 14 |
| 14 | Purmersteijn | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | +4 | 14 |
| 15 | GOES | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | -1 | 14 |
| 16 | Hoogeveen | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | +5 | 13 |
| 17 | Dongen | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | +4 | 13 |
| 18 | Zwaluwen | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | -3 | 13 |
| 19 | Gemert | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | -1 | 10 |
| 20 | ADO '20 | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | -3 | 10 |
| 21 | Blauw Geel | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | 0 | 9 |
| 22 | Roosendaal | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | -3 | 9 |
| 23 | Poortugaal | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | -5 | 9 |
| 24 | Hercules | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | -8 | 9 |
| 25 | UNA | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | -1 | 8 |
| 26 | TOGB | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | -5 | 8 |
| 27 | Vvsb | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | -6 | 7 |
| 28 | Groene Ster | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | -8 | 6 |
| 29 | DVS 33 Ermelo | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | -5 | 5 |
| 30 | Dovo | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | -10 | 5 |
| 31 | Staphorst | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | -8 | 3 |
| 32 | Achilles Veen | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | -13 | 3 |
| 33 | Eemdijk | 7 | – | – | – | – | – | -17 | 3 |
| 34 | EVV | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | -11 | 2 |
| 35 | Hollandia | 7 | – | – | – | – | – | -10 | 1 |
| 36 | SVZW | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | -17 | 1 |
| Last 10 (6) | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 9 | +3 | 13 | 2.17 | 1 | 1 |
|---|
| Away, last 5 (3) | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 4 | +4 | 9 | 3.00 | 0 | 0 |
|---|
| Away, last 10 (3) | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 4 | +4 | 9 | 3.00 | 0 | 0 |
|---|
L
L
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Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
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AUGFC AugsburgDLDWWBMUBayern MünchenWWWDW
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See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
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Average price 1.13
UBEUnion BerlinWLLLDELVSV ElversbergLDLWW
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See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
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Average price 1.11
FMAFSV Mainz 05WWLWDBLEBayer LeverkusenWWDWL
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See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
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Average price 1.13
CHEChelseaLDWLWBOUBournemouthLWDWD
Last 5 games
· England - Premier League
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Average price 1.18
MIDMiddlesbroughDDWLWWOLWolvesWLWDL
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PREPrestonDLLWLMILMillwallDDLLW
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See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
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RANRangersWWWWWKILKilmarnockDWDDL
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See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
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· Spain - La Liga
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See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
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Average price 1.09
GAEGO Ahead EaglesDDDLWSROSparta RotterdamLLDLD
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See the full analysisStarting later (8)
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 86%
Average price 1.08
INTInterWDWLWPARParmaWLDLL
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· Italy - Serie A
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See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
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Average price 1.05
RLERB LeipzigLWLLWEFREintracht FrankfurtWDWL
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
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Average price 1.12
MANManchester UnitedDLLWDTOTTottenhamLLDD
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 85%
Average price 1.10
FEYFeyenoordWWLWDAALAZ AlkmaarWLDW
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
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Average price 1.25
MARMaritimoDLLLDPORFC PortoWWWL
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
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Average price 1.09
FSIFortuna SittardWWLWWTWETwenteWWWW
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 88%
Average price 1.06
AJAAjaxDWWLWNNINEC NijmegenDLLD
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
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Average price 1.05
RMAReal MadridLWWWLVILVillarrealWWLL
D
· Germany - Bundesliga
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L
· England - Premier League
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W
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
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W
· Portugal - Primeira Liga
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D
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L
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L
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