Hereford vs Hednesford Town prediction, Saturday 10 October: chances and analysisBack to today's picks
· England - National League - North
Hereford v Hednesford TownHomevAwayHomevAway
No pick for this match: no market passed our rules.
Our model's chances
Chances of each result: Hereford win 63%, Draw 20%, Hednesford Town win 17%.
Hereford host Hednesford Town in the National League - North, England.
Our model gives Hereford a 63% chance of winning, a draw 20% and Hednesford Town 17%.
The model expects Hereford to score 2.2 goals and Hednesford Town 0.9.
Hereford have won 4 of their last 6 league matches; Hednesford Town have won 3 of 6.
Top factors
- Hereford sit 1st with 23 points; Hednesford Town sit 15th with 12 points.
- Hereford have taken 13 points from their last 5 matches; Hednesford Town 7 from 5.
- At home, Hereford have taken 7 points from their last 3; away, Hednesford Town have taken 4 from their last 3.
Chances and prices are from our nightly scan before the match. Nothing after that is used.
Key numbers, the table, form, head to head and more.
Our model's chance for each market, with the bookmakers' average price.
- Hereford win
- 63% · price 2.06
Yesterday: 4 of 4 picks won. See every pick
Today's picks
Today, Saturday 10 October
Times shown in your time (EDT)
Hednesford Town win17% · price 2.99 Over 1.5 goals80% · price 1.13 Over 2.5 goals59% · price 1.48 Both teams score53% · price 1.44 Expected goals (our model)Hereford 2.2, Hednesford Town 0.9 Context onlyTable position isn't in the model.
Where the teams sit in the National League - North, before kick-off.
Hereford sit 1st with 23 points; Hednesford Town sit 15th with 12. A gap of 17 in goal difference, in favour of Hereford.
Stored before 7 October 2026: wins, draws, losses and goals were not kept.
- 1st Hereford23 points from 10 games · goal difference +17
- 2nd Macclesfield21 points from 10 games · goal difference +7
- 14th Scarborough Athletic12 points from 10 games · goal difference +3
- 15th Hednesford Town12 points from 10 games · goal difference 0
- 16th Marine12 points from 10 games · goal difference 0
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|
| 1 | Hereford | 10 | – | – | – | – | – | +17 | 23 |
| 2 | Macclesfield | 10 | – | – | – | – | – | +7 | 21 |
| 14 | Scarborough Athletic | 10 | – | – | – | – | – | +3 | 12 |
| 15 | Hednesford Town | 10 | – | – | – | – | – | 0 | 12 |
| 16 | Marine | 10 | – | – | – | – | – | 0 | 12 |
Show full tableShow less
- 1st Hereford23 points from 10 games · goal difference +17
- 2nd Macclesfield21 points from 10 games · goal difference +7
- 3rd Oxford City20 points from 10 games · goal difference +11
- 4th South Shields20 points from 10 games · goal difference +2
- 5th Hebburn Town18 points from 10 games · goal difference 0
- 6th Spalding United17 points from 10 games · goal difference +6
- 7th Chester17 points from 10 games · goal difference +4
- 8th King's Lynn Town16 points from 10 games · goal difference +5
- 9th Buxton16 points from 10 games · goal difference 0
- 10th Bedford Town16 points from 10 games · goal difference 0
- 11th Morecambe14 points from 10 games · goal difference +5
Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.
Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
DDrewat Bedford Town26 Sept 2026 · National League - North · Away1–1
WWonv South Shields12 Sept 2026 · National League - North · Home6–0
WWonat Harborough Town8 Sept 2026 · National League - North · Away3–0
WWonv Spennymoor Town5 Sept 2026 · National League - North · Home2–1
WWonat Southport31 Aug 2026 · National League - North · Away1–0
Show last 6 matchesShowing 6
DDrewv Chester29 Aug 2026 · National League - North · Home1–1
Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.
Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
WWonv Radcliffe26 Sept 2026 · National League - North · Home4–1
LLostat Hebburn Town12 Sept 2026 · National League - North · Away1–2
WWonat King's Lynn Town8 Sept 2026 · National League - North · Away3–2
LLostv South Shields5 Sept 2026 · National League - North · Home0–1
DDrewat Spennymoor Town31 Aug 2026 · National League - North · Away1–1
Show last 6 matchesShowing 6
WWonv Harborough Town28 Aug 2026 · National League - North · Home2–1
In the modelThe model rates each team's home and away records separately.
The last 5 and 10 matches, then Hereford at home and Hednesford Town away only: a home fixture is read from home matches where there are enough.
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
Hereford
- Last 5 (5)4 won, 1 drawn, 0 lost · 13 scored, 2 conceded · 2.60 points a game · 3 clean sheets · failed to score in 0
- Last 10 (6)4 won, 2 drawn, 0 lost · 14 scored, 3 conceded · 2.33 points a game · 3 clean sheets · failed to score in 0
- Home, last 5 (3)2 won, 1 drawn, 0 lost · 9 scored, 2 conceded · 2.33 points a game · 1 clean sheet · failed to score in 0
- Home, last 10 (3)2 won, 1 drawn, 0 lost · 9 scored, 2 conceded · 2.33 points a game · 1 clean sheet · failed to score in 0
Hereford| Sample | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | CS | FTS |
|---|
| Last 5 (5) | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 13 | 2 | +11 | 13 | 2.60 | 3 | 0 |
|---|
| Last 10 (6) | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 14 | 3 | +11 | 14 | 2.33 | 3 | 0 |
|---|
| Home, last 5 (3) | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 2 | +7 | 7 | 2.33 | 1 | 0 |
|---|
| Home, last 10 (3) | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 2 | +7 | 7 | 2.33 | 1 | 0 |
|---|
Hednesford Town
- Last 5 (5)2 won, 1 drawn, 2 lost · 9 scored, 7 conceded · 1.40 points a game · 0 clean sheets · failed to score in 1
- Last 10 (6)3 won, 1 drawn, 2 lost · 11 scored, 8 conceded · 1.67 points a game · 0 clean sheets · failed to score in 1
- Away, last 5 (3)1 won, 1 drawn, 1 lost · 5 scored, 5 conceded · 1.33 points a game · 0 clean sheets · failed to score in 0
- Away, last 10 (3)1 won, 1 drawn, 1 lost · 5 scored, 5 conceded · 1.33 points a game · 0 clean sheets · failed to score in 0
Hednesford Town| Sample | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | CS | FTS |
|---|
| Last 5 (5) | 5 | 2 |
|---|
Hereford at home: Insufficient historical data. Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
Hednesford Town away: Insufficient historical data. Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
Context onlyShown for context. The model's own ratings come from goals scored and conceded this season and last.
| Measure | Hereford | Hednesford Town |
|---|
| League position | 1st | 15th |
|---|
| Points per game | 2.30 | 1.20 |
|---|
| Attack: goals per game (last 6 and 6) | 2.33 | 1.83 |
|---|
| Defence: conceded per game (last 6 and 6) | 0.50 | 1.33 |
|---|
| Clean sheets | 3 | 0 |
|---|
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
In the modelMissing players move the model's expected goals, chiefly a missing top scorer.
Players out or doubtful, as reported the night before.
Hednesford Town
None reported.
Showing the top 20 of 26 picks, in kick-off order. 6 more are under Show all.Updating…
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Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 71%
Average price 1.32
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· Italy - Serie A
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Average price 1.03
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Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
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Average price 1.07
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Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
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Average price 1.13
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Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
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Average price 1.11
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win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 83%
Average price 1.13
CHEChelseaLDWLWBOUBournemouthLWDW
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 79%
Average price 1.18
MIDMiddlesbroughDDWLWWOLWolvesWLWD
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 75%
Average price 1.25
PREPrestonDLLWLMILMillwallDDLL
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
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Average price 1.08
RANRangersWWWWWKILKilmarnockDWDD
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
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Average price 1.25
ALAAlavesDLLWWAMAAtletico MadridWWWL
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 85%
Average price 1.09
GAEGO Ahead EaglesDDDLWSROSparta RotterdamLLDL
Starting later (8)
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 86%
Average price 1.08
INTInterWDWLWPARParmaWLD
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|
| 1 | Hereford | 10 | – | – | – | – | – | +17 | 23 |
| 2 | Macclesfield | 10 | – | – | – | – | – | +7 | 21 |
| 3 | Oxford City | 10 | – | – | – | – | – | +11 | 20 |
| 4 | South Shields | 10 | – | – | – | – | – | +2 | 20 |
| 5 | Hebburn Town | 10 | – | – | – | – | – | 0 | 18 |
| 6 | Spalding United | 10 | – | – | – | – | – | +6 | 17 |
| 7 | Chester | 10 | – | – | – | – | – | +4 | 17 |
| 8 | King's Lynn Town | 10 | – | – | – | – | – | +5 | 16 |
| 9 | Buxton | 10 | – | – | – | – | – | 0 | 16 |
| 10 | Bedford Town | 10 | – | – | – | – | – | 0 | 16 |
| 11 | Morecambe | 10 | – | – | – | – | – | +5 | 14 |
| 12 | Chorley | 10 | – | – | – | – | – | -1 | 14 |
| 13 | Merthyr Town | 10 | – | – | – | – | – | +1 | 13 |
| 14 | Scarborough Athletic | 10 | – | – | – | – | – | +3 | 12 |
| 15 | Hednesford Town | 10 | – | – | – | – | – | 0 | 12 |
| 16 | Marine | 10 | – | – | – | – | – | 0 | 12 |
| 17 | Harborough Town | 10 | – | – | – | – | – | -2 | 12 |
| 18 | Worksop Town | 10 | – | – | – | – | – | -6 | 12 |
| 19 | Brackley Town | 10 | – | – | – | – | – | -8 | 12 |
| 20 | Southport | 10 | – | – | – | – | – | -7 | 9 |
| 21 | AFC Telford United | 10 | – | – | – | – | – | -7 | 9 |
| 22 | Darlington 1883 | 10 | – | – | – | – | – | -9 | 7 |
| 23 | Spennymoor Town | 10 | – | – | – | – | – | -10 | 7 |
| 24 | Radcliffe | 10 | – | – | – | – | – | -11 | 6 |
| Last 10 (6) | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 8 | +3 | 10 | 1.67 | 0 | 1 |
|---|
| Away, last 5 (3) | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 1.33 | 0 | 0 |
|---|
| Away, last 10 (3) | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 1.33 | 0 | 0 |
|---|
W
· Germany - Bundesliga
Each of FC Augsburg's last 4 league matches had three or more goals.
L
· Germany - Bundesliga
Each of 1899 Hoffenheim's last 4 league matches had three or more goals.
W
· Germany - Bundesliga
3 of VfB Stuttgart's last 4 league matches had two or more goals.
W
· Germany - Bundesliga
Each of Union Berlin's last 4 league matches had three or more goals.
L
· Germany - Bundesliga
Each of Bayer Leverkusen's last 4 league matches had two or more goals.
D
· England - Premier League
Each of Chelsea's last 5 league matches had three or more goals.
L
· England - Championship
Each of Middlesbrough's last 4 home matches had three or more goals.
W
· England - Championship
Each of Millwall's last 8 league matches had two or more goals.
L
· Scotland - Premiership
The model expects Rangers to score 1.9 goals and Kilmarnock 0.9.
L
· Spain - La Liga
Each of Atletico Madrid's last 7 league matches had two or more goals.
D
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
Each of GO Ahead Eagles's last 7 league matches had two or more goals.
L
L
· Italy - Serie A
Each of Parma's last 4 league matches had two or more goals.
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 88%
Average price 1.05
RLERB LeipzigLWLLWEFREintracht FrankfurtWDWLD
Last 5 games
· Germany - Bundesliga
Each of RB Leipzig's last 4 league matches had two or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 83%
Average price 1.12
MANManchester UnitedDLLWDTOTTottenhamLLDDL
Last 5 games
· England - Premier League
4 of Manchester United's last 5 league matches had two or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 85%
Average price 1.10
FEYFeyenoordWWLWDAALAZ AlkmaarWLDWW
Last 5 games
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
Each of Feyenoord's last 6 league matches had three or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 74%
Average price 1.25
MARMaritimoDLLLDPORFC PortoWWWLW
Last 5 games
· Portugal - Primeira Liga
Each of FC Porto's last 7 league matches had two or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 86%
Average price 1.09
FSIFortuna SittardWWLWWTWETwenteWWWWD
Last 5 games
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
Each of Fortuna Sittard's last 3 home matches had two or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 88%
Average price 1.06
AJAAjaxDWWLWNNINEC NijmegenDLLDL
Last 5 games
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
Each of Ajax's last 7 league matches had two or more goals.
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win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 88%
Average price 1.05
RMAReal MadridLWWWLVILVillarrealWWLLL
Last 5 games
· Spain - La Liga
Each of Villarreal's last 4 league matches had three or more goals.
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