Holyhead Hotspur vs Caersws prediction, Saturday 10 October: chances and analysisBack to today's picks
· Wales - FAW Championship
Holyhead Hotspur v CaerswsHomevAwayHomevAway
No pick for this match: no market passed our rules.
Our model's chances
Chances of each result: Holyhead Hotspur win 37%, Draw 23%, Caersws win 40%.
Holyhead Hotspur host Caersws in the FAW Championship, Wales.
Our model gives Holyhead Hotspur a 37% chance of winning, a draw 23% and Caersws 40%.
The model expects Holyhead Hotspur to score 1.7 goals and Caersws 1.8.
Holyhead Hotspur have won 1 of their last 6 league matches; Caersws have won 4 of 6.
Top factors
- Holyhead Hotspur sit 28th with 7 points; Caersws sit 9th with 17 points.
- Holyhead Hotspur have taken 4 points from their last 5 matches; Caersws 10 from 5.
- At home, Holyhead Hotspur have taken 1 point from their last 4; away, Caersws have taken 9 from their last 3.
Chances and prices are from our nightly scan before the match. Nothing after that is used.
Key numbers, the table, form, head to head and more.
Our model's chance for each market. No bookmaker prices yet.
Yesterday: 4 of 4 picks won. See every pick
Today's picks
Today, Saturday 10 October
Times shown in your time (EDT)
Expected goals (our model)Holyhead Hotspur 1.7, Caersws 1.8 Context onlyTable position isn't in the model.
Where the teams sit in the FAW Championship, before kick-off.
Holyhead Hotspur sit 28th with 7 points; Caersws sit 9th with 17. A gap of 14 in goal difference, in favour of Caersws.
Stored before 7 October 2026: wins, draws, losses and goals were not kept.
- 8th Bala Town19 points from 11 games · goal difference +2
- 9th Caersws17 points from 9 games · goal difference +7
- 10th Bangor City 1876 FC16 points from 10 games · goal difference +5
- 27th Denbigh Town7 points from 10 games · goal difference -5
- 28th Holyhead Hotspur7 points from 9 games · goal difference -7
- 29th Llantwit Major7 points from 8 games · goal difference -13
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|
| 8 | Bala Town | 11 | – | – | – | – | – | +2 | 19 |
| 9 | Caersws | 9 | – | – | – | – | – | +7 | 17 |
| 10 | Bangor City 1876 FC | 10 | – | – | – | – | – | +5 | 16 |
| 27 | Denbigh Town | 10 | – | – | – | – | – | -5 | 7 |
| 28 | Holyhead Hotspur | 9 | – | – | – | – | – | -7 | 7 |
| 29 | Llantwit Major | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | -13 |
Show full tableShow less
- 1st Brickfield Rangers27 points from 10 games · goal difference +20
- 2nd Newtown AFC22 points from 9 games · goal difference +15
- 3rd Swansea University21 points from 9 games · goal difference +19
- 4th Mold Alexandra20 points from 10 games · goal difference +11
- 5th Porthmadog20 points from 10 games · goal difference +6
- 6th Aberystwyth Town19 points from 8 games · goal difference +14
- 7th Pontypridd Town19 points from 9 games · goal difference +7
- 8th Bala Town19 points from 11 games · goal difference +2
- 9th Caersws17 points from 9 games · goal difference +7
- 10th Bangor City 1876 FC16 points from 10 games · goal difference +5
- 11th
Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.
Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
WWonat Denbigh Town2 Oct 2026 · FAW Championship · Away4–2
LLostv Guilsfield26 Sept 2026 · FAW Championship · Home0–2
LLostv Newtown AFC12 Sept 2026 · FAW Championship · Home0–1
LLostat Llanuwchllyn5 Sept 2026 · FAW Championship · Away0–4
DDrewv Porthmadog31 Aug 2026 · FAW Championship · Home2–2
Show last 6 matchesShowing 6
LLostv Bangor City 1876 FC21 Aug 2026 · FAW Championship · Home2–3
Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.
Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
DDrewv Bala Town3 Oct 2026 · FAW Championship · Home3–3
WWonat Llanuwchllyn26 Sept 2026 · FAW Championship · Away5–2
LLostv Brickfield Rangers12 Sept 2026 · FAW Championship · Home0–2
WWonat Ruthin Town4 Sept 2026 · FAW Championship · Away3–0
WWonv Buckley Town31 Aug 2026 · FAW Championship · Home2–0
Show last 6 matchesShowing 6
WWonat Porthmadog28 Aug 2026 · FAW Championship · Away3–1
In the modelThe model rates each team's home and away records separately.
The last 5 and 10 matches, then Holyhead Hotspur at home and Caersws away only: a home fixture is read from home matches where there are enough.
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
Holyhead Hotspur
- Last 5 (5)1 won, 1 drawn, 3 lost · 6 scored, 11 conceded · 0.80 points a game · 0 clean sheets · failed to score in 3
- Last 10 (6)1 won, 1 drawn, 4 lost · 8 scored, 14 conceded · 0.67 points a game · 0 clean sheets · failed to score in 3
- Home, last 5 (4)0 won, 1 drawn, 3 lost · 4 scored, 8 conceded · 0.25 points a game · 0 clean sheets · failed to score in 2
- Home, last 10 (4)0 won, 1 drawn, 3 lost · 4 scored, 8 conceded · 0.25 points a game · 0 clean sheets · failed to score in 2
Holyhead Hotspur| Sample | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | CS | FTS |
|---|
| Last 5 (5) | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 11 | -5 | 4 | 0.80 | 0 | 3 |
|---|
| Last 10 (6) | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 8 | 14 | -6 | 4 | 0.67 | 0 | 3 |
|---|
| Home, last 5 (4) | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 8 | -4 | 1 | 0.25 | 0 | 2 |
|---|
| Home, last 10 (4) | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 8 | -4 | 1 | 0.25 | 0 | 2 |
|---|
Caersws
- Last 5 (5)3 won, 1 drawn, 1 lost · 13 scored, 7 conceded · 2.00 points a game · 2 clean sheets · failed to score in 1
- Last 10 (6)4 won, 1 drawn, 1 lost · 16 scored, 8 conceded · 2.17 points a game · 2 clean sheets · failed to score in 1
- Away, last 5 (3)3 won, 0 drawn, 0 lost · 11 scored, 3 conceded · 3.00 points a game · 1 clean sheet · failed to score in 0
- Away, last 10 (3)3 won, 0 drawn, 0 lost · 11 scored, 3 conceded · 3.00 points a game · 1 clean sheet · failed to score in 0
Caersws| Sample | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | CS | FTS |
|---|
| Last 5 (5) | 5 | 3 |
|---|
Holyhead Hotspur at home: Insufficient historical data. Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
Caersws away: Insufficient historical data. Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
Context onlyShown for context. The model's own ratings come from goals scored and conceded this season and last.
| Measure | Holyhead Hotspur | Caersws |
|---|
| League position | 28th | 9th |
|---|
| Points per game | 0.78 | 1.89 |
|---|
| Attack: goals per game (last 6 and 6) | 1.33 | 2.67 |
|---|
| Defence: conceded per game (last 6 and 6) | 2.33 | 1.33 |
|---|
| Clean sheets | 0 | 2 |
|---|
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
In the modelMissing players move the model's expected goals, chiefly a missing top scorer.
Players out or doubtful, as reported the night before.
Holyhead Hotspur
None reported.
Showing the top 20 of 26 picks, in kick-off order. 6 more are under Show all.Updating…
Starting in 3 to 6 hours (12)
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 71%
Average price 1.32
GENGenoaLLWDLFIOFiorentinaDWWLL
Last 5 games
· Italy - Serie A
Each of Fiorentina's last 5 league matches had two or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 93%
Average price 1.03
AUGFC AugsburgDLDWWBMUBayern MünchenWWWD
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 85%
Average price 1.10
HOF1899 HoffenheimLLWLLHAMHamburger SVWWLL
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 87%
Average price 1.07
PADSC Paderborn 07WWLLDVSTVfB StuttgartWWLL
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 82%
Average price 1.13
UBEUnion BerlinWLLLDELVSV ElversbergLDLW
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 84%
Average price 1.11
FMAFSV Mainz 05WWLWDBLEBayer LeverkusenWWDW
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 83%
Average price 1.13
CHEChelseaLDWLWBOUBournemouthLWDW
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 79%
Average price 1.18
MIDMiddlesbroughDDWLWWOLWolvesWLWD
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 75%
Average price 1.25
PREPrestonDLLWLMILMillwallDDLL
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 86%
Average price 1.08
RANRangersWWWWWKILKilmarnockDWDD
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 75%
Average price 1.25
ALAAlavesDLLWWAMAAtletico MadridWWWL
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 85%
Average price 1.09
GAEGO Ahead EaglesDDDLWSROSparta RotterdamLLDL
Starting later (8)
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 86%
Average price 1.08
INTInterWDWLWPARParmaWLD
Guilsfield
16 points from 10 games · goal difference +4
12th Caerau (Ely)16 points from 9 games · goal difference +313th Baglan Dragons16 points from 10 games · goal difference 014th Buckley Town15 points from 11 games · goal difference +615th Carmarthen Town14 points from 9 games · goal difference +116th Ynyshir Albions13 points from 8 games · goal difference +217th Treowen Stars13 points from 9 games · goal difference 018th Afan Lido12 points from 11 games · goal difference -419th Caerphilly Athletic11 points from 10 games · goal difference -720th Trethomas Bluebirds10 points from 9 games · goal difference 021st Rhyl10 points from 10 games · goal difference -222nd Llanuwchllyn10 points from 9 games · goal difference -1023rd Pontardawe Town9 points from 8 games · goal difference -224th Ruthin Town9 points from 11 games · goal difference -1125th Newport City8 points from 8 games · goal difference +326th Cardiff Draconians8 points from 7 games · goal difference -327th Denbigh Town7 points from 10 games · goal difference -528th Holyhead Hotspur7 points from 9 games · goal difference -729th Llantwit Major7 points from 8 games · goal difference -1330th Gresford Athletic7 points from 9 games · goal difference -1531st llanelli AFC2 points from 10 games · goal difference -2032nd Penrhyncoch1 points from 10 games · goal difference -26| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|
| 1 | Brickfield Rangers | 10 | – | – | – | – | – | +20 | 27 |
| 2 | Newtown AFC | 9 | – | – | – | – | – | +15 | 22 |
| 3 | Swansea University | 9 | – | – | – | – | – | +19 | 21 |
| 4 | Mold Alexandra | 10 | – | – | – | – | – | +11 | 20 |
| 5 | Porthmadog | 10 | – | – | – | – | – | +6 | 20 |
| 6 | Aberystwyth Town | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | +14 | 19 |
| 7 | Pontypridd Town | 9 | – | – | – | – | – | +7 | 19 |
| 8 | Bala Town | 11 | – | – | – | – | – | +2 | 19 |
| 9 | Caersws | 9 | – | – | – | – | – | +7 | 17 |
| 10 | Bangor City 1876 FC | 10 | – | – | – | – | – | +5 | 16 |
| 11 | Guilsfield | 10 | – | – | – | – | – | +4 | 16 |
| 12 | Caerau (Ely) | 9 | – | – | – | – | – | +3 | 16 |
| 13 | Baglan Dragons | 10 | – | – | – | – | – | 0 | 16 |
| 14 | Buckley Town | 11 | – | – | – | – | – | +6 | 15 |
| 15 | Carmarthen Town | 9 | – | – | – | – | – | +1 | 14 |
| 16 | Ynyshir Albions | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | +2 | 13 |
| 17 | Treowen Stars | 9 | – | – | – | – | – | 0 | 13 |
| 18 | Afan Lido | 11 | – | – | – | – | – | -4 | 12 |
| 19 | Caerphilly Athletic | 10 | – | – | – | – | – | -7 | 11 |
| 20 | Trethomas Bluebirds | 9 | – | – | – | – | – | 0 | 10 |
| 21 | Rhyl | 10 | – | – | – | – | – | -2 | 10 |
| 22 | Llanuwchllyn | 9 | – | – | – | – | – | -10 | 10 |
| 23 | Pontardawe Town | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | -2 | 9 |
| 24 | Ruthin Town | 11 | – | – | – | – | – | -11 | 9 |
| 25 | Newport City | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | +3 | 8 |
| 26 | Cardiff Draconians | 7 | – | – | – | – | – | -3 | 8 |
| 27 | Denbigh Town | 10 | – | – | – | – | – | -5 | 7 |
| 28 | Holyhead Hotspur | 9 | – | – | – | – | – | -7 | 7 |
| 29 | Llantwit Major | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | -13 | 7 |
| 30 | Gresford Athletic | 9 | – | – | – | – | – | -15 | 7 |
| 31 | llanelli AFC | 10 | – | – | – | – | – | -20 | 2 |
| 32 | Penrhyncoch | 10 | – | – | – | – | – | -26 | 1 |
| Last 10 (6) | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 16 | 8 | +8 | 13 | 2.17 | 2 | 1 |
|---|
| Away, last 5 (3) | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 3 | +8 | 9 | 3.00 | 1 | 0 |
|---|
| Away, last 10 (3) | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 3 | +8 | 9 | 3.00 | 1 | 0 |
|---|
W
· Germany - Bundesliga
Each of FC Augsburg's last 4 league matches had three or more goals.
L
· Germany - Bundesliga
Each of 1899 Hoffenheim's last 4 league matches had three or more goals.
W
· Germany - Bundesliga
3 of VfB Stuttgart's last 4 league matches had two or more goals.
W
· Germany - Bundesliga
Each of Union Berlin's last 4 league matches had three or more goals.
L
· Germany - Bundesliga
Each of Bayer Leverkusen's last 4 league matches had two or more goals.
D
· England - Premier League
Each of Chelsea's last 5 league matches had three or more goals.
L
· England - Championship
Each of Middlesbrough's last 4 home matches had three or more goals.
W
· England - Championship
Each of Millwall's last 8 league matches had two or more goals.
L
· Scotland - Premiership
The model expects Rangers to score 1.9 goals and Kilmarnock 0.9.
L
· Spain - La Liga
Each of Atletico Madrid's last 7 league matches had two or more goals.
D
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
Each of GO Ahead Eagles's last 7 league matches had two or more goals.
L
L
· Italy - Serie A
Each of Parma's last 4 league matches had two or more goals.
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 88%
Average price 1.05
RLERB LeipzigLWLLWEFREintracht FrankfurtWDWLD
Last 5 games
· Germany - Bundesliga
Each of RB Leipzig's last 4 league matches had two or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 83%
Average price 1.12
MANManchester UnitedDLLWDTOTTottenhamLLDDL
Last 5 games
· England - Premier League
4 of Manchester United's last 5 league matches had two or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 85%
Average price 1.10
FEYFeyenoordWWLWDAALAZ AlkmaarWLDWW
Last 5 games
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
Each of Feyenoord's last 6 league matches had three or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 74%
Average price 1.25
MARMaritimoDLLLDPORFC PortoWWWLW
Last 5 games
· Portugal - Primeira Liga
Each of FC Porto's last 7 league matches had two or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 86%
Average price 1.09
FSIFortuna SittardWWLWWTWETwenteWWWWD
Last 5 games
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
Each of Fortuna Sittard's last 3 home matches had two or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 88%
Average price 1.06
AJAAjaxDWWLWNNINEC NijmegenDLLDL
Last 5 games
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
Each of Ajax's last 7 league matches had two or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 88%
Average price 1.05
RMAReal MadridLWWWLVILVillarrealWWLLL
Last 5 games
· Spain - La Liga
Each of Villarreal's last 4 league matches had three or more goals.
See the full analysis