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· Slovenia - 2. SNL
Ilirija v KrkaHomevAwayHomevAway
No pick for this match: no market passed our rules.
Our model's chances
Chances of each result: Ilirija win 51%, Draw 24%, Krka win 25%.
Ilirija host Krka in the 2. SNL, Slovenia.
Our model gives Ilirija a 51% chance of winning, a draw 24% and Krka 25%.
The model expects Ilirija to score 1.7 goals and Krka 1.1.
Ilirija have won 1 of their last 6 league matches; Krka have won 2 of 6.
Top factors
- Ilirija sit 9th with 13 points; Krka sit 14th with 7 points.
- Ilirija have taken 4 points from their last 5 matches; Krka 6 from 5.
- At home, Ilirija have taken 4 points from their last 3; away, Krka have taken 3 from their last 4.
Chances and prices are from our nightly scan before the match. Nothing after that is used.
Key numbers, the table, form, head to head and more.
Our model's chance for each market. No bookmaker prices yet.
Yesterday: 4 of 4 picks won. See every pick
Today's picks
Today, Saturday 10 October
Times shown in your time (EDT)
Expected goals (our model)Ilirija 1.7, Krka 1.1 Context onlyTable position isn't in the model.
Where the teams sit in the 2. SNL, before kick-off.
Ilirija sit 9th with 13 points; Krka sit 14th with 7. A gap of 12 in goal difference, in favour of Ilirija.
Stored before 7 October 2026: wins, draws, losses and goals were not kept.
- 8th Dren Vrhnika14 points from 9 games · goal difference -2
- 9th Ilirija13 points from 9 games · goal difference +5
- 10th Bistrica13 points from 9 games · goal difference -2
- 13th Krško9 points from 9 games · goal difference -7
- 14th Krka7 points from 9 games · goal difference -7
- 15th Dravinja4 points from 9 games · goal difference -15
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|
| 8 | Dren Vrhnika | 9 | – | – | – | – | – | -2 | 14 |
| 9 | Ilirija | 9 | – | – | – | – | – | +5 | 13 |
| 10 | Bistrica | 9 | – | – | – | – | – | -2 | 13 |
| 13 | Krško | 9 | – | – | – | – | – | -7 | 9 |
| 14 | Krka | 9 | – | – | – | – | – | -7 | 7 |
| 15 | Dravinja | 9 | – | – | – | – | – | -15 | 4 |
Show full tableShow less
- 1st Tabor Sežana25 points from 10 games · goal difference +14
- 2nd Triglav19 points from 9 games · goal difference +13
- 3rd Beltinci19 points from 9 games · goal difference +12
- 4th Jesenice16 points from 9 games · goal difference +4
- 5th Slovan Ljubljana16 points from 9 games · goal difference -2
- 6th Rudar15 points from 10 games · goal difference +2
- 7th Bilje15 points from 9 games · goal difference 0
- 8th Dren Vrhnika14 points from 9 games · goal difference -2
- 9th Ilirija13 points from 9 games · goal difference +5
- 10th Bistrica13 points from 9 games · goal difference -2
- 11th Dekani12 points from 9 games · goal difference 0
Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.
Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
LLostv Beltinci4 Oct 2026 · 2. SNL · Home2–4
LLostat Dekani25 Sept 2026 · 2. SNL · Away0–1
WWonv Krško19 Sept 2026 · 2. SNL · Home2–0
LLostat Jesenice12 Sept 2026 · 2. SNL · Away1–3
DDrewv Primorje4 Sept 2026 · 2. SNL · Home0–0
Show last 6 matchesShowing 6
LLostat Slovan Ljubljana28 Aug 2026 · 2. SNL · Away1–2
Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.
Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
LLostat Tabor Sežana3 Oct 2026 · 2. SNL · Away1–2
LLostat Beltinci27 Sept 2026 · 2. SNL · Away0–3
LLostv Dekani20 Sept 2026 · 2. SNL · Home1–2
WWonat Krško12 Sept 2026 · 2. SNL · Away1–0
WWonv Jesenice5 Sept 2026 · 2. SNL · Home2–0
Show last 6 matchesShowing 6
LLostat Primorje28 Aug 2026 · 2. SNL · Away2–3
In the modelThe model rates each team's home and away records separately.
The last 5 and 10 matches, then Ilirija at home and Krka away only: a home fixture is read from home matches where there are enough.
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
Ilirija
- Last 5 (5)1 won, 1 drawn, 3 lost · 5 scored, 8 conceded · 0.80 points a game · 2 clean sheets · failed to score in 2
- Last 10 (6)1 won, 1 drawn, 4 lost · 6 scored, 10 conceded · 0.67 points a game · 2 clean sheets · failed to score in 2
- Home, last 5 (3)1 won, 1 drawn, 1 lost · 4 scored, 4 conceded · 1.33 points a game · 2 clean sheets · failed to score in 1
- Home, last 10 (3)1 won, 1 drawn, 1 lost · 4 scored, 4 conceded · 1.33 points a game · 2 clean sheets · failed to score in 1
Ilirija| Sample | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | CS | FTS |
|---|
| Last 5 (5) | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 8 | -3 | 4 | 0.80 | 2 | 2 |
|---|
| Last 10 (6) | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 10 | -4 | 4 | 0.67 | 2 | 2 |
|---|
| Home, last 5 (3) | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 1.33 | 2 | 1 |
|---|
| Home, last 10 (3) | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 1.33 | 2 | 1 |
|---|
Krka
- Last 5 (5)2 won, 0 drawn, 3 lost · 5 scored, 7 conceded · 1.20 points a game · 2 clean sheets · failed to score in 1
- Last 10 (6)2 won, 0 drawn, 4 lost · 7 scored, 10 conceded · 1.00 points a game · 2 clean sheets · failed to score in 1
- Away, last 5 (4)1 won, 0 drawn, 3 lost · 4 scored, 8 conceded · 0.75 points a game · 1 clean sheet · failed to score in 1
- Away, last 10 (4)1 won, 0 drawn, 3 lost · 4 scored, 8 conceded · 0.75 points a game · 1 clean sheet · failed to score in 1
Krka| Sample | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | CS | FTS |
|---|
| Last 5 (5) | 5 | 2 |
|---|
Ilirija at home: Insufficient historical data. Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
Krka away: Insufficient historical data. Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
Context onlyShown for context. The model's own ratings come from goals scored and conceded this season and last.
| Measure | Ilirija | Krka |
|---|
| League position | 9th | 14th |
|---|
| Points per game | 1.44 | 0.78 |
|---|
| Attack: goals per game (last 6 and 6) | 1.00 | 1.17 |
|---|
| Defence: conceded per game (last 6 and 6) | 1.67 | 1.67 |
|---|
| Clean sheets | 2 | 2 |
|---|
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
In the modelMissing players move the model's expected goals, chiefly a missing top scorer.
Players out or doubtful, as reported the night before.
Context onlyFacts pointing the other way. The model doesn't read them.
Evidence pointing the other way.
- Krka have the better recent form: 6 points from 5 against 4 from 5.
Showing the top 20 of 26 picks, in kick-off order. 6 more are under Show all.Updating…
Starting in 3 to 6 hours (12)
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 71%
Average price 1.32
GENGenoaLLWDLFIOFiorentinaDWWLL
Last 5 games
· Italy - Serie A
Each of Fiorentina's last 5 league matches had two or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 93%
Average price 1.03
AUGFC AugsburgDLDWWBMUBayern MünchenWWWD
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 85%
Average price 1.10
HOF1899 HoffenheimLLWLLHAMHamburger SVWWLL
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 87%
Average price 1.07
PADSC Paderborn 07WWLLDVSTVfB StuttgartWWLL
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 82%
Average price 1.13
UBEUnion BerlinWLLLDELVSV ElversbergLDLW
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 84%
Average price 1.11
FMAFSV Mainz 05WWLWDBLEBayer LeverkusenWWDW
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 83%
Average price 1.13
CHEChelseaLDWLWBOUBournemouthLWDW
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 79%
Average price 1.18
MIDMiddlesbroughDDWLWWOLWolvesWLWD
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 75%
Average price 1.25
PREPrestonDLLWLMILMillwallDDLL
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 86%
Average price 1.08
RANRangersWWWWWKILKilmarnockDWDD
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 75%
Average price 1.25
ALAAlavesDLLWWAMAAtletico MadridWWWL
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 85%
Average price 1.09
GAEGO Ahead EaglesDDDLWSROSparta RotterdamLLDL
Starting later (8)
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 86%
Average price 1.08
INTInterWDWLWPARParmaWLD
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|
| 1 | Tabor Sežana | 10 | – | – | – | – | – | +14 | 25 |
| 2 | Triglav | 9 | – | – | – | – | – | +13 | 19 |
| 3 | Beltinci | 9 | – | – | – | – | – | +12 | 19 |
| 4 | Jesenice | 9 | – | – | – | – | – | +4 | 16 |
| 5 | Slovan Ljubljana | 9 | – | – | – | – | – | -2 | 16 |
| 6 | Rudar | 10 | – | – | – | – | – | +2 | 15 |
| 7 | Bilje | 9 | – | – | – | – | – | 0 | 15 |
| 8 | Dren Vrhnika | 9 | – | – | – | – | – | -2 | 14 |
| 9 | Ilirija | 9 | – | – | – | – | – | +5 | 13 |
| 10 | Bistrica | 9 | – | – | – | – | – | -2 | 13 |
| 11 | Dekani | 9 | – | – | – | – | – | 0 | 12 |
| 12 | Primorje | 9 | – | – | – | – | – | -5 | 9 |
| 13 | Krško | 9 | – | – | – | – | – | -7 | 9 |
| 14 | Krka | 9 | – | – | – | – | – | -7 | 7 |
| 15 | Dravinja | 9 | – | – | – | – | – | -15 | 4 |
| 16 | Brežice | 9 | – | – | – | – | – | -10 | 2 |
| Last 10 (6) | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 7 | 10 | -3 | 6 | 1.00 | 2 | 1 |
|---|
| Away, last 5 (4) | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 8 | -4 | 3 | 0.75 | 1 | 1 |
|---|
| Away, last 10 (4) | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 8 | -4 | 3 | 0.75 | 1 | 1 |
|---|
W
· Germany - Bundesliga
Each of FC Augsburg's last 4 league matches had three or more goals.
L
· Germany - Bundesliga
Each of 1899 Hoffenheim's last 4 league matches had three or more goals.
W
· Germany - Bundesliga
3 of VfB Stuttgart's last 4 league matches had two or more goals.
W
· Germany - Bundesliga
Each of Union Berlin's last 4 league matches had three or more goals.
L
· Germany - Bundesliga
Each of Bayer Leverkusen's last 4 league matches had two or more goals.
D
· England - Premier League
Each of Chelsea's last 5 league matches had three or more goals.
L
· England - Championship
Each of Middlesbrough's last 4 home matches had three or more goals.
W
· England - Championship
Each of Millwall's last 8 league matches had two or more goals.
L
· Scotland - Premiership
The model expects Rangers to score 1.9 goals and Kilmarnock 0.9.
L
· Spain - La Liga
Each of Atletico Madrid's last 7 league matches had two or more goals.
D
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
Each of GO Ahead Eagles's last 7 league matches had two or more goals.
L
L
· Italy - Serie A
Each of Parma's last 4 league matches had two or more goals.
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 88%
Average price 1.05
RLERB LeipzigLWLLWEFREintracht FrankfurtWDWLD
Last 5 games
· Germany - Bundesliga
Each of RB Leipzig's last 4 league matches had two or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 83%
Average price 1.12
MANManchester UnitedDLLWDTOTTottenhamLLDDL
Last 5 games
· England - Premier League
4 of Manchester United's last 5 league matches had two or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 85%
Average price 1.10
FEYFeyenoordWWLWDAALAZ AlkmaarWLDWW
Last 5 games
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
Each of Feyenoord's last 6 league matches had three or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 74%
Average price 1.25
MARMaritimoDLLLDPORFC PortoWWWLW
Last 5 games
· Portugal - Primeira Liga
Each of FC Porto's last 7 league matches had two or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 86%
Average price 1.09
FSIFortuna SittardWWLWWTWETwenteWWWWD
Last 5 games
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
Each of Fortuna Sittard's last 3 home matches had two or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 88%
Average price 1.06
AJAAjaxDWWLWNNINEC NijmegenDLLDL
Last 5 games
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
Each of Ajax's last 7 league matches had two or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 88%
Average price 1.05
RMAReal MadridLWWWLVILVillarrealWWLLL
Last 5 games
· Spain - La Liga
Each of Villarreal's last 4 league matches had three or more goals.
See the full analysis