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· Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana
Ituzaingó v Argentino QuilmesHomevAwayHomevAway
No pick for this match: no market passed our rules.
Our model's chances
Chances of each result: Ituzaingó win 26%, Draw 31%, Argentino Quilmes win 43%.
Ituzaingó host Argentino Quilmes in the Primera B Metropolitana, Argentina.
Our model gives Ituzaingó a 26% chance of winning, a draw 31% and Argentino Quilmes 43%.
The model expects Ituzaingó to score 0.8 goals and Argentino Quilmes 1.2.
Ituzaingó have won 0 of their last 6 league matches; Argentino Quilmes have won 1 of 6.
Top factors
- Ituzaingó sit 22nd with 15 points; Argentino Quilmes sit 16th with 43 points.
- Ituzaingó have taken 1 point from their last 5 matches; Argentino Quilmes 6 from 5.
- At home, Ituzaingó have taken 1 point from their last 3; away, Argentino Quilmes have taken 2 from their last 3.
Chances and prices are from our nightly scan before the match. Nothing after that is used.
Key numbers, the table, form, head to head and more.
Our model's chance for each market, with the bookmakers' average price.
- Ituzaingó win
- 26% · price 4.16
Argentino Quilmes win43% · price 1.85 Over 1.5 goals65% · price 1.46 Over 2.5 goals39% · price 2.38 Both teams score46% · price 2.09 Expected goals (our model)Ituzaingó 0.8, Argentino Quilmes 1.2 Context onlyTable position isn't in the model.
Where the teams sit in the Primera B Metropolitana, before kick-off.
Ituzaingó sit 22nd with 15 points; Argentino Quilmes sit 16th with 43. A gap of 30 in goal difference, in favour of Argentino Quilmes.
Stored before 7 October 2026: wins, draws, losses and goals were not kept.
- 15th Deportivo Merlo44 points from 38 games · goal difference -15
- 16th Argentino Quilmes43 points from 38 games · goal difference -7
- 17th Liniers43 points from 38 games · goal difference -8
- 21st UAI Urquiza35 points from 38 games · goal difference -14
- 22nd Ituzaingó15 points from 38 games · goal difference -37
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|
| 15 | Deportivo Merlo | 38 | – | – | – | – | – | -15 | 44 |
| 16 | Argentino Quilmes | 38 | – | – | – | – | – | -7 | 43 |
| 17 | Liniers | 38 | – | – | – | – | – | -8 | 43 |
| 21 | UAI Urquiza | 38 | – | – | – | – | – | -14 | 35 |
| 22 | Ituzaingó | 38 | – | – | – | – | – | -37 | 15 |
Show full tableShow less
- 1st Excursionistas74 points from 38 games · goal difference +29
- 2nd Arsenal Sarandi69 points from 38 games · goal difference +25
- 3rd Talleres Remedios67 points from 38 games · goal difference +17
- 4th Sportivo Italiano65 points from 38 games · goal difference +17
- 5th Villa Dalmine64 points from 38 games · goal difference +15
- 6th Deportivo Camioneros63 points from 38 games · goal difference +14
- 7th Real Pilar61 points from 38 games · goal difference +4
- 8th Deportivo Armenio60 points from 38 games · goal difference +4
- 9th Comunicaciones55 points from 38 games · goal difference +5
- 10th Deportivo Laferrere51 points from 38 games · goal difference -4
- 11th
Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.
Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
LLostat UAI Urquiza5 Oct 2026 · Primera B Metropolitana · Away2–3
LLostv Defensores Unidos25 Sept 2026 · Primera B Metropolitana · Home0–1
LLostat Villa Dalmine19 Sept 2026 · Primera B Metropolitana · Away1–3
DDrewv Comunicaciones11 Sept 2026 · Primera B Metropolitana · Home2–2
LLostat Excursionistas7 Sept 2026 · Primera B Metropolitana · Away1–2
Show last 6 matchesShowing 6
LLostv Dock Sud29 Aug 2026 · Primera B Metropolitana · Home0–2
Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.
Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
DDrewat Defensores Unidos3 Oct 2026 · Primera B Metropolitana · Away1–1
DDrewv Comunicaciones27 Sept 2026 · Primera B Metropolitana · Home0–0
DDrewat Dock Sud20 Sept 2026 · Primera B Metropolitana · Away0–0
WWonv Deportivo Merlo13 Sept 2026 · Primera B Metropolitana · Home1–0
LLostat Deportivo Camioneros6 Sept 2026 · Primera B Metropolitana · Away0–1
Show last 6 matchesShowing 6
LLostv Sportivo Italiano29 Aug 2026 · Primera B Metropolitana · Home0–2
In the modelThe model rates each team's home and away records separately.
The last 5 and 10 matches, then Ituzaingó at home and Argentino Quilmes away only: a home fixture is read from home matches where there are enough.
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
Ituzaingó
- Last 5 (5)0 won, 1 drawn, 4 lost · 6 scored, 11 conceded · 0.20 points a game · 0 clean sheets · failed to score in 1
- Last 10 (6)0 won, 1 drawn, 5 lost · 6 scored, 13 conceded · 0.17 points a game · 0 clean sheets · failed to score in 2
- Home, last 5 (3)0 won, 1 drawn, 2 lost · 2 scored, 5 conceded · 0.33 points a game · 0 clean sheets · failed to score in 2
- Home, last 10 (3)0 won, 1 drawn, 2 lost · 2 scored, 5 conceded · 0.33 points a game · 0 clean sheets · failed to score in 2
Ituzaingó| Sample | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | CS | FTS |
|---|
| Last 5 (5) | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 11 | -5 | 1 | 0.20 | 0 | 1 |
|---|
| Last 10 (6) | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 13 | -7 | 1 | 0.17 | 0 | 2 |
|---|
| Home, last 5 (3) | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 1 | 0.33 | 0 | 2 |
|---|
| Home, last 10 (3) | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 1 | 0.33 | 0 | 2 |
|---|
Argentino Quilmes
- Last 5 (5)1 won, 3 drawn, 1 lost · 2 scored, 2 conceded · 1.20 points a game · 3 clean sheets · failed to score in 3
- Last 10 (6)1 won, 3 drawn, 2 lost · 2 scored, 4 conceded · 1.00 points a game · 3 clean sheets · failed to score in 4
- Away, last 5 (3)0 won, 2 drawn, 1 lost · 1 scored, 2 conceded · 0.67 points a game · 1 clean sheet · failed to score in 2
- Away, last 10 (3)0 won, 2 drawn, 1 lost · 1 scored, 2 conceded · 0.67 points a game · 1 clean sheet · failed to score in 2
Argentino Quilmes| Sample | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | CS | FTS |
|---|
| Last 5 (5) | 5 | 1 |
|---|
Ituzaingó at home: Insufficient historical data. Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
Argentino Quilmes away: Insufficient historical data. Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
Context onlyShown for context. The model's own ratings come from goals scored and conceded this season and last.
| Measure | Ituzaingó | Argentino Quilmes |
|---|
| League position | 22nd | 16th |
|---|
| Points per game | 0.39 | 1.13 |
|---|
| Attack: goals per game (last 6 and 6) | 1.00 | 0.33 |
|---|
| Defence: conceded per game (last 6 and 6) | 2.17 | 0.67 |
|---|
| Clean sheets | 0 | 3 |
|---|
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
In the modelMissing players move the model's expected goals, chiefly a missing top scorer.
Players out or doubtful, as reported the night before.
Argentino Quilmes
None reported.
San Martín Burzaco
50 points from 38 games · goal difference -2
12th Dock Sud47 points from 38 games · goal difference -213th Villa San Carlos47 points from 38 games · goal difference -214th Argentino de Merlo44 points from 38 games · goal difference -615th Deportivo Merlo44 points from 38 games · goal difference -1516th Argentino Quilmes43 points from 38 games · goal difference -717th Liniers43 points from 38 games · goal difference -818th Defensores Unidos41 points from 38 games · goal difference -619th Brown DE Adrogue39 points from 38 games · goal difference -1320th Flandria39 points from 38 games · goal difference -1421st UAI Urquiza35 points from 38 games · goal difference -1422nd Ituzaingó15 points from 38 games · goal difference -37| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|
| 1 | Excursionistas | 38 | – | – | – | – | – | +29 | 74 |
| 2 | Arsenal Sarandi | 38 | – | – | – | – | – | +25 | 69 |
| 3 | Talleres Remedios | 38 | – | – | – | – | – | +17 | 67 |
| 4 | Sportivo Italiano | 38 | – | – | – | – | – | +17 | 65 |
| 5 | Villa Dalmine | 38 | – | – | – | – | – | +15 | 64 |
| 6 | Deportivo Camioneros | 38 | – | – | – | – | – | +14 | 63 |
| 7 | Real Pilar | 38 | – | – | – | – | – | +4 | 61 |
| 8 | Deportivo Armenio | 38 | – | – | – | – | – | +4 | 60 |
| 9 | Comunicaciones | 38 | – | – | – | – | – | +5 | 55 |
| 10 | Deportivo Laferrere | 38 | – | – | – | – | – | -4 | 51 |
| 11 | San Martín Burzaco | 38 | – | – | – | – | – | -2 | 50 |
| 12 | Dock Sud | 38 | – | – | – | – | – | -2 | 47 |
| 13 | Villa San Carlos | 38 | – | – | – | – | – | -2 | 47 |
| 14 | Argentino de Merlo | 38 | – | – | – | – | – | -6 | 44 |
| 15 | Deportivo Merlo | 38 | – | – | – | – | – | -15 | 44 |
| 16 | Argentino Quilmes | 38 | – | – | – | – | – | -7 | 43 |
| 17 | Liniers | 38 | – | – | – | – | – | -8 | 43 |
| 18 | Defensores Unidos | 38 | – | – | – | – | – | -6 | 41 |
| 19 | Brown DE Adrogue | 38 | – | – | – | – | – | -13 | 39 |
| 20 | Flandria | 38 | – | – | – | – | – | -14 | 39 |
| 21 | UAI Urquiza | 38 | – | – | – | – | – | -14 | 35 |
| 22 | Ituzaingó | 38 | – | – | – | – | – | -37 | 15 |
| Last 10 (6) | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 6 | 1.00 | 3 | 4 |
|---|
| Away, last 5 (3) | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 2 | 0.67 | 1 | 2 |
|---|
| Away, last 10 (3) | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 2 | 0.67 | 1 | 2 |
|---|
Yesterday: 4 of 4 picks won. See every pick
Today's picks
Today, Saturday 10 October
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Showing the top 20 of 26 picks, in kick-off order. 6 more are under Show all.Updating…
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See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
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CHEChelseaLDWLWBOUBournemouthLWDWD
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