Karlberg vs Vasalund prediction, Saturday 10 October: chances and analysisBack to today's picks
· Sweden - Ettan - Norra
Karlberg v VasalundHomevAwayHomevAway
No pick for this match: no market passed our rules.
Our model's chances
Chances of each result: Karlberg win 35%, Draw 23%, Vasalund win 42%.
Karlberg host Vasalund in the Ettan - Norra, Sweden.
Our model gives Karlberg a 35% chance of winning, a draw 23% and Vasalund 42%.
The model expects Karlberg to score 1.5 goals and Vasalund 1.8.
Karlberg have won 2 of their last 6 league matches; Vasalund have won 1 of 6.
Top factors
- Karlberg sit 10th with 32 points; Vasalund sit 13th with 27 points.
- Karlberg have taken 7 points from their last 5 matches; Vasalund 4 from 5.
- At home, Karlberg have taken 6 points from their last 3; away, Vasalund have taken 3 from their last 2.
Chances and prices are from our nightly scan before the match. Nothing after that is used.
Key numbers, the table, form, head to head and more.
Our model's chance for each market, with the bookmakers' average price.
- Karlberg win
- 35% · price 2.53
Yesterday: 4 of 4 picks won. See every pick
Today's picks
Today, Saturday 10 October
Times shown in your time (EDT)
Vasalund win42% · price 2.40 Over 1.5 goals82% · price 1.18 Over 2.5 goals62% · price 1.61 Both teams score57% · price 1.50 Expected goals (our model)Karlberg 1.5, Vasalund 1.8 Context onlyTable position isn't in the model.
Where the teams sit in the Ettan - Norra, before kick-off.
Karlberg sit 10th with 32 points; Vasalund sit 13th with 27. A gap of 8 in goal difference, in favour of Karlberg.
Stored before 7 October 2026: wins, draws, losses and goals were not kept.
- 9th Umeå FC32 points from 25 games · goal difference -7
- 10th Karlberg32 points from 25 games · goal difference -8
- 11th Gefle IF30 points from 25 games · goal difference -14
- 12th Sollentuna27 points from 26 games · goal difference -9
- 13th Vasalund27 points from 25 games · goal difference -16
- 14th Piteå22 points from 25 games · goal difference -16
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|
| 9 | Umeå FC | 25 | – | – | – | – | – | -7 | 32 |
| 10 | Karlberg | 25 | – | – | – | – | – | -8 | 32 |
| 11 | Gefle IF | 25 | – | – | – | – | – | -14 | 30 |
| 12 | Sollentuna | 26 | – | – | – | – | – | -9 | 27 |
| 13 | Vasalund | 25 | – | – | – | – | – | -16 | 27 |
| 14 | Piteå | 25 | – | – | – | – | – | -16 | 22 |
Show full tableShow less
- 1st Stockholm Internazionale57 points from 25 games · goal difference +40
- 2nd Arlanda48 points from 25 games · goal difference +18
- 3rd AFC Eskilstuna47 points from 25 games · goal difference +13
- 4th Hammarby Talang45 points from 25 games · goal difference +26
- 5th FBK Karlstad43 points from 25 games · goal difference +6
- 6th Enköping42 points from 25 games · goal difference -2
- 7th IF Karlstad41 points from 25 games · goal difference +12
- 8th Assyriska FF32 points from 25 games · goal difference -2
- 9th Umeå FC32 points from 25 games · goal difference -7
- 10th Karlberg32 points from 25 games · goal difference -8
- 11th Gefle IF
Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.
Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
WWonv Sollentuna2 Oct 2026 · Ettan - Norra · Home3–2
DDrewat IF Karlstad27 Sept 2026 · Ettan - Norra · Away1–1
LLostv Stockholm Internazionale20 Sept 2026 · Ettan - Norra · Home0–2
LLostat Järfälla17 Sept 2026 · Ettan - Norra · Away0–5
WWonv Arlanda12 Sept 2026 · Ettan - Norra · Home1–0
Show last 6 matchesShowing 6
LLostat Piteå6 Sept 2026 · Ettan - Norra · Away0–3
Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.
Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
LLostv Arlanda4 Oct 2026 · Ettan - Norra · Home1–4
WWonat Gefle IF27 Sept 2026 · Ettan - Norra · Away1–0
LLostv Assyriska FF21 Sept 2026 · Ettan - Norra · Home1–5
DDrewv Hammarby Talang17 Sept 2026 · Ettan - Norra · Home0–0
LLostat FBK Karlstad12 Sept 2026 · Ettan - Norra · Away1–2
Show last 6 matchesShowing 6
LLostv Enköping6 Sept 2026 · Ettan - Norra · Home2–3
In the modelThe model rates each team's home and away records separately.
The last 5 and 10 matches, then Karlberg at home and Vasalund away only: a home fixture is read from home matches where there are enough.
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
Karlberg
- Last 5 (5)2 won, 1 drawn, 2 lost · 5 scored, 10 conceded · 1.40 points a game · 1 clean sheet · failed to score in 2
- Last 10 (6)2 won, 1 drawn, 3 lost · 5 scored, 13 conceded · 1.17 points a game · 1 clean sheet · failed to score in 3
- Home, last 5 (3)2 won, 0 drawn, 1 lost · 4 scored, 4 conceded · 2.00 points a game · 1 clean sheet · failed to score in 1
- Home, last 10 (3)2 won, 0 drawn, 1 lost · 4 scored, 4 conceded · 2.00 points a game · 1 clean sheet · failed to score in 1
Karlberg| Sample | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | CS | FTS |
|---|
| Last 5 (5) | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 10 | -5 | 7 | 1.40 | 1 | 2 |
|---|
| Last 10 (6) | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 13 | -8 | 7 | 1.17 | 1 | 3 |
|---|
| Home, last 5 (3) | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 6 | 2.00 | 1 | 1 |
|---|
| Home, last 10 (3) | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 6 | 2.00 | 1 | 1 |
|---|
Vasalund
- Last 5 (5)1 won, 1 drawn, 3 lost · 4 scored, 11 conceded · 0.80 points a game · 2 clean sheets · failed to score in 1
- Last 10 (6)1 won, 1 drawn, 4 lost · 6 scored, 14 conceded · 0.67 points a game · 2 clean sheets · failed to score in 1
- Away, last 5 (2)1 won, 0 drawn, 1 lost · 2 scored, 2 conceded · 1.50 points a game · 1 clean sheet · failed to score in 0
- Away, last 10 (2)1 won, 0 drawn, 1 lost · 2 scored, 2 conceded · 1.50 points a game · 1 clean sheet · failed to score in 0
Vasalund| Sample | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | CS | FTS |
|---|
| Last 5 (5) | 5 | 1 |
|---|
Karlberg at home: Insufficient historical data. Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
Vasalund away: Insufficient historical data. Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
Context onlyShown for context. The model's own ratings come from goals scored and conceded this season and last.
| Measure | Karlberg | Vasalund |
|---|
| League position | 10th | 13th |
|---|
| Points per game | 1.28 | 1.08 |
|---|
| Attack: goals per game (last 6 and 6) | 0.83 | 1.00 |
|---|
| Defence: conceded per game (last 6 and 6) | 2.17 | 2.33 |
|---|
| Clean sheets | 1 | 2 |
|---|
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
In the modelMissing players move the model's expected goals, chiefly a missing top scorer.
Players out or doubtful, as reported the night before.
Showing the top 20 of 26 picks, in kick-off order. 6 more are under Show all.Updating…
Starting in 3 to 6 hours (12)
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 71%
Average price 1.32
GENGenoaLLWDLFIOFiorentinaDWWLL
Last 5 games
· Italy - Serie A
Each of Fiorentina's last 5 league matches had two or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 93%
Average price 1.03
AUGFC AugsburgDLDWWBMUBayern MünchenWWWD
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 85%
Average price 1.10
HOF1899 HoffenheimLLWLLHAMHamburger SVWWLL
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 87%
Average price 1.07
PADSC Paderborn 07WWLLDVSTVfB StuttgartWWLL
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 82%
Average price 1.13
UBEUnion BerlinWLLLDELVSV ElversbergLDLW
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 84%
Average price 1.11
FMAFSV Mainz 05WWLWDBLEBayer LeverkusenWWDW
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 83%
Average price 1.13
CHEChelseaLDWLWBOUBournemouthLWDW
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 79%
Average price 1.18
MIDMiddlesbroughDDWLWWOLWolvesWLWD
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 75%
Average price 1.25
PREPrestonDLLWLMILMillwallDDLL
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 86%
Average price 1.08
RANRangersWWWWWKILKilmarnockDWDD
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 75%
Average price 1.25
ALAAlavesDLLWWAMAAtletico MadridWWWL
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 85%
Average price 1.09
GAEGO Ahead EaglesDDDLWSROSparta RotterdamLLDL
Starting later (8)
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 86%
Average price 1.08
INTInterWDWLWPARParmaWLD
30 points from 25 games · goal difference -14
12th Sollentuna27 points from 26 games · goal difference -913th Vasalund27 points from 25 games · goal difference -1614th Piteå22 points from 25 games · goal difference -1615th Järfälla19 points from 25 games · goal difference -2216th Stocksund15 points from 26 games · goal difference -19| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|
| 1 | Stockholm Internazionale | 25 | – | – | – | – | – | +40 | 57 |
| 2 | Arlanda | 25 | – | – | – | – | – | +18 | 48 |
| 3 | AFC Eskilstuna | 25 | – | – | – | – | – | +13 | 47 |
| 4 | Hammarby Talang | 25 | – | – | – | – | – | +26 | 45 |
| 5 | FBK Karlstad | 25 | – | – | – | – | – | +6 | 43 |
| 6 | Enköping | 25 | – | – | – | – | – | -2 | 42 |
| 7 | IF Karlstad | 25 | – | – | – | – | – | +12 | 41 |
| 8 | Assyriska FF | 25 | – | – | – | – | – | -2 | 32 |
| 9 | Umeå FC | 25 | – | – | – | – | – | -7 | 32 |
| 10 | Karlberg | 25 | – | – | – | – | – | -8 | 32 |
| 11 | Gefle IF | 25 | – | – | – | – | – | -14 | 30 |
| 12 | Sollentuna | 26 | – | – | – | – | – | -9 | 27 |
| 13 | Vasalund | 25 | – | – | – | – | – | -16 | 27 |
| 14 | Piteå | 25 | – | – | – | – | – | -16 | 22 |
| 15 | Järfälla | 25 | – | – | – | – | – | -22 | 19 |
| 16 | Stocksund | 26 | – | – | – | – | – | -19 | 15 |
| Last 10 (6) | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 14 | -8 | 4 | 0.67 | 2 | 1 |
|---|
| Away, last 5 (2) | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 1.50 | 1 | 0 |
|---|
| Away, last 10 (2) | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 1.50 | 1 | 0 |
|---|
W
· Germany - Bundesliga
Each of FC Augsburg's last 4 league matches had three or more goals.
L
· Germany - Bundesliga
Each of 1899 Hoffenheim's last 4 league matches had three or more goals.
W
· Germany - Bundesliga
3 of VfB Stuttgart's last 4 league matches had two or more goals.
W
· Germany - Bundesliga
Each of Union Berlin's last 4 league matches had three or more goals.
L
· Germany - Bundesliga
Each of Bayer Leverkusen's last 4 league matches had two or more goals.
D
· England - Premier League
Each of Chelsea's last 5 league matches had three or more goals.
L
· England - Championship
Each of Middlesbrough's last 4 home matches had three or more goals.
W
· England - Championship
Each of Millwall's last 8 league matches had two or more goals.
L
· Scotland - Premiership
The model expects Rangers to score 1.9 goals and Kilmarnock 0.9.
L
· Spain - La Liga
Each of Atletico Madrid's last 7 league matches had two or more goals.
D
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
Each of GO Ahead Eagles's last 7 league matches had two or more goals.
L
L
· Italy - Serie A
Each of Parma's last 4 league matches had two or more goals.
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 88%
Average price 1.05
RLERB LeipzigLWLLWEFREintracht FrankfurtWDWLD
Last 5 games
· Germany - Bundesliga
Each of RB Leipzig's last 4 league matches had two or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 83%
Average price 1.12
MANManchester UnitedDLLWDTOTTottenhamLLDDL
Last 5 games
· England - Premier League
4 of Manchester United's last 5 league matches had two or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 85%
Average price 1.10
FEYFeyenoordWWLWDAALAZ AlkmaarWLDWW
Last 5 games
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
Each of Feyenoord's last 6 league matches had three or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 74%
Average price 1.25
MARMaritimoDLLLDPORFC PortoWWWLW
Last 5 games
· Portugal - Primeira Liga
Each of FC Porto's last 7 league matches had two or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 86%
Average price 1.09
FSIFortuna SittardWWLWWTWETwenteWWWWD
Last 5 games
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
Each of Fortuna Sittard's last 3 home matches had two or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 88%
Average price 1.06
AJAAjaxDWWLWNNINEC NijmegenDLLDL
Last 5 games
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
Each of Ajax's last 7 league matches had two or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 88%
Average price 1.05
RMAReal MadridLWWWLVILVillarrealWWLLL
Last 5 games
· Spain - La Liga
Each of Villarreal's last 4 league matches had three or more goals.
See the full analysis