KSZO 1929 vs Busko-Zdroj prediction, Saturday 10 October: chances and analysisBack to today's picks
· Poland - III Liga - Group 4
KSZO 1929 v Busko-ZdrojHomevAwayHomevAway
No pick for this match: no market passed our rules.
Our model's chances
Chances of each result: KSZO 1929 win 68%, Draw 18%, Busko-Zdroj win 14%.
KSZO 1929 host Busko-Zdroj in the III Liga - Group 4, Poland.
Our model gives KSZO 1929 a 68% chance of winning, a draw 18% and Busko-Zdroj 14%.
The model expects KSZO 1929 to score 2.4 goals and Busko-Zdroj 0.9.
KSZO 1929 have won 2 of their last 6 league matches; Busko-Zdroj have won 3 of 6.
Top factors
- KSZO 1929 sit 4th with 20 points; Busko-Zdroj sit 9th with 14 points.
- KSZO 1929 have taken 6 points from their last 5 matches; Busko-Zdroj 9 from 5.
- At home, KSZO 1929 have taken 2 points from their last 3; away, Busko-Zdroj have taken 0 from their last 3.
Chances and prices are from our nightly scan before the match. Nothing after that is used.
Key numbers, the table, form, head to head and more.
Our model's chance for each market, with the bookmakers' average price.
- KSZO 1929 win
- 68% · price 1.44
Yesterday: 4 of 4 picks won. See every pick
Today's picks
Today, Saturday 10 October
Times shown in your time (EDT)
Busko-Zdroj win14% · price 5.88 Over 2.5 goals60% · price 1.60 Expected goals (our model)KSZO 1929 2.4, Busko-Zdroj 0.9 Context onlyTable position isn't in the model.
Where the teams sit in the III Liga - Group 4, before kick-off.
KSZO 1929 sit 4th with 20 points; Busko-Zdroj sit 9th with 14. A gap of 11 in goal difference, in favour of KSZO 1929.
Stored before 7 October 2026: wins, draws, losses and goals were not kept.
- 3rd Wiślanie Jaśkowice20 points from 12 games · goal difference +7
- 4th KSZO 192920 points from 11 games · goal difference +7
- 5th Naprzód20 points from 11 games · goal difference +6
- 8th Hetman Zamosc14 points from 11 games · goal difference 0
- 9th Busko-Zdroj14 points from 11 games · goal difference -4
- 10th Siarka Tarnobrzeg14 points from 12 games · goal difference -4
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|
| 3 | Wiślanie Jaśkowice | 12 | – | – | – | – | – | +7 | 20 |
| 4 | KSZO 1929 | 11 | – | – | – | – | – | +7 | 20 |
| 5 | Naprzód | 11 | – | – | – | – | – | +6 | 20 |
| 8 | Hetman Zamosc | 11 | – | – | – | – | – | 0 | 14 |
| 9 | Busko-Zdroj | 11 | – | – | – | – | – | -4 | 14 |
| 10 | Siarka Tarnobrzeg | 12 | – | – | – | – | – | -4 |
Show full tableShow less
- 1st Chełmianka Chełm27 points from 11 games · goal difference +13
- 2nd Wisłoka Dębica22 points from 11 games · goal difference +3
- 3rd Wiślanie Jaśkowice20 points from 12 games · goal difference +7
- 4th KSZO 192920 points from 11 games · goal difference +7
- 5th Naprzód20 points from 11 games · goal difference +6
- 6th Czarni Połaniec20 points from 11 games · goal difference +2
- 7th Jarosław17 points from 11 games · goal difference +7
- 8th Hetman Zamosc14 points from 11 games · goal difference 0
- 9th Busko-Zdroj14 points from 11 games · goal difference -4
- 10th Siarka Tarnobrzeg14 points from 12 games · goal difference -4
- 11th
Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.
Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
DDrewat Czarni Połaniec3 Oct 2026 · III Liga - Group 4 · Away1–1
LLostv Hetman Zamosc27 Sept 2026 · III Liga - Group 4 · Home1–2
DDrewv Chełmianka Chełm19 Sept 2026 · III Liga - Group 4 · Home0–0
WWonat Wisła Kraków II12 Sept 2026 · III Liga - Group 4 · Away1–0
DDrewv Naprzód5 Sept 2026 · III Liga - Group 4 · Home2–2
Show last 6 matchesShowing 6
WWonat Moravia Morawica30 Aug 2026 · III Liga - Group 4 · Away4–0
Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.
Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
WWonv Wisła Kraków II4 Oct 2026 · III Liga - Group 4 · Home3–0
LLostat Naprzód26 Sept 2026 · III Liga - Group 4 · Away1–4
WWonv Moravia Morawica19 Sept 2026 · III Liga - Group 4 · Home2–1
LLostat Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów12 Sept 2026 · III Liga - Group 4 · Away1–2
WWonv Wiślanie Jaśkowice6 Sept 2026 · III Liga - Group 4 · Home2–1
Show last 6 matchesShowing 6
LLostat Korona Kielce II29 Aug 2026 · III Liga - Group 4 · Away1–4
In the modelThe model rates each team's home and away records separately.
The last 5 and 10 matches, then KSZO 1929 at home and Busko-Zdroj away only: a home fixture is read from home matches where there are enough.
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
KSZO 1929
- Last 5 (5)1 won, 3 drawn, 1 lost · 5 scored, 5 conceded · 1.20 points a game · 2 clean sheets · failed to score in 1
- Last 10 (6)2 won, 3 drawn, 1 lost · 9 scored, 5 conceded · 1.50 points a game · 3 clean sheets · failed to score in 1
- Home, last 5 (3)0 won, 2 drawn, 1 lost · 3 scored, 4 conceded · 0.67 points a game · 1 clean sheet · failed to score in 1
- Home, last 10 (3)0 won, 2 drawn, 1 lost · 3 scored, 4 conceded · 0.67 points a game · 1 clean sheet · failed to score in 1
KSZO 1929| Sample | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | CS | FTS |
|---|
| Last 5 (5) | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 6 | 1.20 | 2 | 1 |
|---|
| Last 10 (6) | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 9 | 5 | +4 | 9 | 1.50 | 3 | 1 |
|---|
| Home, last 5 (3) | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 2 | 0.67 | 1 | 1 |
|---|
| Home, last 10 (3) | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 2 | 0.67 | 1 | 1 |
|---|
Busko-Zdroj
- Last 5 (5)3 won, 0 drawn, 2 lost · 9 scored, 8 conceded · 1.80 points a game · 1 clean sheet · failed to score in 0
- Last 10 (6)3 won, 0 drawn, 3 lost · 10 scored, 12 conceded · 1.50 points a game · 1 clean sheet · failed to score in 0
- Away, last 5 (3)0 won, 0 drawn, 3 lost · 3 scored, 10 conceded · 0.00 points a game · 0 clean sheets · failed to score in 0
- Away, last 10 (3)0 won, 0 drawn, 3 lost · 3 scored, 10 conceded · 0.00 points a game · 0 clean sheets · failed to score in 0
Busko-Zdroj| Sample | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | CS | FTS |
|---|
| Last 5 (5) | 5 | 3 |
|---|
KSZO 1929 at home: Insufficient historical data. Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
Busko-Zdroj away: Insufficient historical data. Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
Context onlyShown for context. The model's own ratings come from goals scored and conceded this season and last.
| Measure | KSZO 1929 | Busko-Zdroj |
|---|
| League position | 4th | 9th |
|---|
| Points per game | 1.82 | 1.27 |
|---|
| Attack: goals per game (last 6 and 6) | 1.50 | 1.67 |
|---|
| Defence: conceded per game (last 6 and 6) | 0.83 | 2.00 |
|---|
| Clean sheets | 3 | 1 |
|---|
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
In the modelMissing players move the model's expected goals, chiefly a missing top scorer.
Players out or doubtful, as reported the night before.
Busko-Zdroj
None reported.
Context onlyFacts pointing the other way. The model doesn't read them.
Evidence pointing the other way.
- Busko-Zdroj have the better recent form: 9 points from 5 against 6 from 5.
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Sokół Kolb.
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|---|
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| 2 | Wisłoka Dębica | 11 | – | – | – | – | – | +3 | 22 |
| 3 | Wiślanie Jaśkowice | 12 | – | – | – | – | – | +7 | 20 |
| 4 | KSZO 1929 | 11 | – | – | – | – | – | +7 | 20 |
| 5 | Naprzód | 11 | – | – | – | – | – | +6 | 20 |
| 6 | Czarni Połaniec | 11 | – | – | – | – | – | +2 | 20 |
| 7 | Jarosław | 11 | – | – | – | – | – | +7 | 17 |
| 8 | Hetman Zamosc | 11 | – | – | – | – | – | 0 | 14 |
| 9 | Busko-Zdroj | 11 | – | – | – | – | – | -4 | 14 |
| 10 | Siarka Tarnobrzeg | 12 | – | – | – | – | – | -4 | 14 |
| 11 | Sokół Kolb. | 11 | – | – | – | – | – | 0 | 13 |
| 12 | Wisła Kraków II | 11 | – | – | – | – | – | -3 | 13 |
| 13 | Podlasie Biała Podlaska | 11 | – | – | – | – | – | -3 | 12 |
| 14 | Korona Kielce II | 11 | – | – | – | – | – | -4 | 11 |
| 15 | Star Starachowice | 11 | – | – | – | – | – | -4 | 11 |
| 16 | KS Wieczysta Krakow II | 11 | – | – | – | – | – | -4 | 11 |
| 17 | Moravia Morawica | 11 | – | – | – | – | – | -9 | 8 |
| 18 | Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów | 11 | – | – | – | – | – | -10 | 7 |
| Last 10 (6) | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 10 | 12 | -2 | 9 | 1.50 | 1 | 0 |
|---|
| Away, last 5 (3) | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 10 | -7 | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 0 |
|---|
| Away, last 10 (3) | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 10 | -7 | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 0 |
|---|
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