Kyustendil vs Strumska Slava prediction, Saturday 10 October: chances and analysisBack to today's picks
· Bulgaria - Third League - Southwest
Kyustendil v Strumska SlavaHomevAwayHomevAway
No pick for this match: no market passed our rules.
Our model's chances
Chances of each result: Kyustendil win 35%, Draw 25%, Strumska Slava win 40%.
Kyustendil host Strumska Slava in the Third League - Southwest, Bulgaria.
Our model gives Kyustendil a 35% chance of winning, a draw 25% and Strumska Slava 40%.
The model expects Kyustendil to score 1.4 goals and Strumska Slava 1.6.
Kyustendil have won 1 of their last 6 league matches; Strumska Slava have won 3 of 6.
Top factors
- Kyustendil sit 16th with 9 points; Strumska Slava sit 4th with 19 points.
- Kyustendil have taken 2 points from their last 5 matches; Strumska Slava 6 from 5.
- At home, Kyustendil have taken 3 points from their last 3; away, Strumska Slava have taken 0 from their last 2.
Chances and prices are from our nightly scan before the match. Nothing after that is used.
Key numbers, the table, form, head to head and more.
Our model's chance for each market. No bookmaker prices yet.
Yesterday: 4 of 4 picks won. See every pick
Today's picks
Today, Saturday 10 October
Times shown in your time (EDT)
Expected goals (our model)Kyustendil 1.4, Strumska Slava 1.6 Context onlyTable position isn't in the model.
Where the teams sit in the Third League - Southwest, before kick-off.
Kyustendil sit 16th with 9 points; Strumska Slava sit 4th with 19. A gap of 14 in goal difference, in favour of Strumska Slava.
Stored before 7 October 2026: wins, draws, losses and goals were not kept.
- 3rd Bansko22 points from 10 games · goal difference +8
- 4th Strumska Slava19 points from 10 games · goal difference +8
- 5th Septemvri Sofia II16 points from 9 games · goal difference +4
- 15th Chavdar Etropole10 points from 10 games · goal difference -11
- 16th Kyustendil9 points from 10 games · goal difference -6
- 17th Natsional Sofia7 points from 10 games · goal difference -6
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|
| 3 | Bansko | 10 | – | – | – | – | – | +8 | 22 |
| 4 | Strumska Slava | 10 | – | – | – | – | – | +8 | 19 |
| 5 | Septemvri Sofia II | 9 | – | – | – | – | – | +4 | 16 |
| 15 | Chavdar Etropole | 10 | – | – | – | – | – | -11 | 10 |
| 16 | Kyustendil | 10 | – | – | – | – | – | -6 | 9 |
| 17 | Natsional Sofia | 10 | – | – | – | – | – | -6 |
Show full tableShow less
- 1st FK Minyor Pernik23 points from 10 games · goal difference +16
- 2nd Oborishte22 points from 10 games · goal difference +12
- 3rd Bansko22 points from 10 games · goal difference +8
- 4th Strumska Slava19 points from 10 games · goal difference +8
- 5th Septemvri Sofia II16 points from 9 games · goal difference +4
- 6th Balkan Botevgrad16 points from 10 games · goal difference -1
- 7th Botev Ihtiman15 points from 10 games · goal difference +1
- 8th Kostinbrod15 points from 10 games · goal difference +1
- 9th Slavia Sofia II12 points from 10 games · goal difference +1
- 10th CSKA Sofia III12 points from 9 games · goal difference +1
- 11th
Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.
Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
DDrewat Oborishte7 Oct 2026 · Third League - Southwest · Away2–2
LLostv Bansko26 Sept 2026 · Third League - Southwest · Home0–3
LLostat FK Minyor Pernik19 Sept 2026 · Third League - Southwest · Away0–2
LLostv Pirin Razlog12 Sept 2026 · Third League - Southwest · Home0–1
DDrewat Natsional Sofia5 Sept 2026 · Third League - Southwest · Away1–1
Show last 6 matchesShowing 6
WWonv Chavdar Etropole29 Aug 2026 · Third League - Southwest · Home3–1
Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.
Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
LLostv Septemvri Simitli3 Oct 2026 · Third League - Southwest · Home1–2
WWonv Belasitsa26 Sept 2026 · Third League - Southwest · Home2–1
LLostat Oborishte19 Sept 2026 · Third League - Southwest · Away2–3
WWonv Bansko12 Sept 2026 · Third League - Southwest · Home3–0
LLostat FK Minyor Pernik5 Sept 2026 · Third League - Southwest · Away2–5
Show last 6 matchesShowing 6
WWonv Pirin Razlog29 Aug 2026 · Third League - Southwest · Home3–0
In the modelThe model rates each team's home and away records separately.
The last 5 and 10 matches, then Kyustendil at home and Strumska Slava away only: a home fixture is read from home matches where there are enough.
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
Kyustendil
- Last 5 (5)0 won, 2 drawn, 3 lost · 3 scored, 9 conceded · 0.40 points a game · 0 clean sheets · failed to score in 3
- Last 10 (6)1 won, 2 drawn, 3 lost · 6 scored, 10 conceded · 0.83 points a game · 0 clean sheets · failed to score in 3
- Home, last 5 (3)1 won, 0 drawn, 2 lost · 3 scored, 5 conceded · 1.00 points a game · 0 clean sheets · failed to score in 2
- Home, last 10 (3)1 won, 0 drawn, 2 lost · 3 scored, 5 conceded · 1.00 points a game · 0 clean sheets · failed to score in 2
Kyustendil| Sample | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | CS | FTS |
|---|
| Last 5 (5) | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 9 | -6 | 2 | 0.40 | 0 | 3 |
|---|
| Last 10 (6) | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 10 | -4 | 5 | 0.83 | 0 | 3 |
|---|
| Home, last 5 (3) | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 3 | 1.00 | 0 | 2 |
|---|
| Home, last 10 (3) | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 3 | 1.00 | 0 | 2 |
|---|
Strumska Slava
- Last 5 (5)2 won, 0 drawn, 3 lost · 10 scored, 11 conceded · 1.20 points a game · 1 clean sheet · failed to score in 0
- Last 10 (6)3 won, 0 drawn, 3 lost · 13 scored, 11 conceded · 1.50 points a game · 2 clean sheets · failed to score in 0
- Away, last 5 (2)0 won, 0 drawn, 2 lost · 4 scored, 8 conceded · 0.00 points a game · 0 clean sheets · failed to score in 0
- Away, last 10 (2)0 won, 0 drawn, 2 lost · 4 scored, 8 conceded · 0.00 points a game · 0 clean sheets · failed to score in 0
Strumska Slava| Sample | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | CS | FTS |
|---|
| Last 5 (5) | 5 | 2 |
|---|
Kyustendil at home: Insufficient historical data. Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
Strumska Slava away: Insufficient historical data. Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
Context onlyShown for context. The model's own ratings come from goals scored and conceded this season and last.
| Measure | Kyustendil | Strumska Slava |
|---|
| League position | 16th | 4th |
|---|
| Points per game | 0.90 | 1.90 |
|---|
| Attack: goals per game (last 6 and 6) | 1.00 | 2.17 |
|---|
| Defence: conceded per game (last 6 and 6) | 1.67 | 1.83 |
|---|
| Clean sheets | 0 | 2 |
|---|
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
In the modelMissing players move the model's expected goals, chiefly a missing top scorer.
Players out or doubtful, as reported the night before.
Strumska Slava
None reported.
Showing the top 20 of 26 picks, in kick-off order. 6 more are under Show all.Updating…
Starting in 3 to 6 hours (12)
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 71%
Average price 1.32
GENGenoaLLWDLFIOFiorentinaDWWLL
Last 5 games
· Italy - Serie A
Each of Fiorentina's last 5 league matches had two or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 93%
Average price 1.03
AUGFC AugsburgDLDWWBMUBayern MünchenWWWD
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 85%
Average price 1.10
HOF1899 HoffenheimLLWLLHAMHamburger SVWWLL
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 87%
Average price 1.07
PADSC Paderborn 07WWLLDVSTVfB StuttgartWWLL
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 82%
Average price 1.13
UBEUnion BerlinWLLLDELVSV ElversbergLDLW
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 84%
Average price 1.11
FMAFSV Mainz 05WWLWDBLEBayer LeverkusenWWDW
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 83%
Average price 1.13
CHEChelseaLDWLWBOUBournemouthLWDW
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 79%
Average price 1.18
MIDMiddlesbroughDDWLWWOLWolvesWLWD
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 75%
Average price 1.25
PREPrestonDLLWLMILMillwallDDLL
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 86%
Average price 1.08
RANRangersWWWWWKILKilmarnockDWDD
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 75%
Average price 1.25
ALAAlavesDLLWWAMAAtletico MadridWWWL
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 85%
Average price 1.09
GAEGO Ahead EaglesDDDLWSROSparta RotterdamLLDL
Starting later (8)
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 86%
Average price 1.08
INTInterWDWLWPARParmaWLD
Levski Sofia II
12 points from 10 games · goal difference 0
12th Septemvri Simitli12 points from 10 games · goal difference -413th Slivnishki geroy11 points from 10 games · goal difference -414th Belasitsa10 points from 10 games · goal difference -415th Chavdar Etropole10 points from 10 games · goal difference -1116th Kyustendil9 points from 10 games · goal difference -617th Natsional Sofia7 points from 10 games · goal difference -618th Pirin Razlog7 points from 10 games · goal difference -16| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|
| 1 | FK Minyor Pernik | 10 | – | – | – | – | – | +16 | 23 |
| 2 | Oborishte | 10 | – | – | – | – | – | +12 | 22 |
| 3 | Bansko | 10 | – | – | – | – | – | +8 | 22 |
| 4 | Strumska Slava | 10 | – | – | – | – | – | +8 | 19 |
| 5 | Septemvri Sofia II | 9 | – | – | – | – | – | +4 | 16 |
| 6 | Balkan Botevgrad | 10 | – | – | – | – | – | -1 | 16 |
| 7 | Botev Ihtiman | 10 | – | – | – | – | – | +1 | 15 |
| 8 | Kostinbrod | 10 | – | – | – | – | – | +1 | 15 |
| 9 | Slavia Sofia II | 10 | – | – | – | – | – | +1 | 12 |
| 10 | CSKA Sofia III | 9 | – | – | – | – | – | +1 | 12 |
| 11 | Levski Sofia II | 10 | – | – | – | – | – | 0 | 12 |
| 12 | Septemvri Simitli | 10 | – | – | – | – | – | -4 | 12 |
| 13 | Slivnishki geroy | 10 | – | – | – | – | – | -4 | 11 |
| 14 | Belasitsa | 10 | – | – | – | – | – | -4 | 10 |
| 15 | Chavdar Etropole | 10 | – | – | – | – | – | -11 | 10 |
| 16 | Kyustendil | 10 | – | – | – | – | – | -6 | 9 |
| 17 | Natsional Sofia | 10 | – | – | – | – | – | -6 | 7 |
| 18 | Pirin Razlog | 10 | – | – | – | – | – | -16 | 7 |
| Last 10 (6) | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 13 | 11 | +2 | 9 | 1.50 | 2 | 0 |
|---|
| Away, last 5 (2) | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 8 | -4 | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 0 |
|---|
| Away, last 10 (2) | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 8 | -4 | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 0 |
|---|
W
· Germany - Bundesliga
Each of FC Augsburg's last 4 league matches had three or more goals.
L
· Germany - Bundesliga
Each of 1899 Hoffenheim's last 4 league matches had three or more goals.
W
· Germany - Bundesliga
3 of VfB Stuttgart's last 4 league matches had two or more goals.
W
· Germany - Bundesliga
Each of Union Berlin's last 4 league matches had three or more goals.
L
· Germany - Bundesliga
Each of Bayer Leverkusen's last 4 league matches had two or more goals.
D
· England - Premier League
Each of Chelsea's last 5 league matches had three or more goals.
L
· England - Championship
Each of Middlesbrough's last 4 home matches had three or more goals.
W
· England - Championship
Each of Millwall's last 8 league matches had two or more goals.
L
· Scotland - Premiership
The model expects Rangers to score 1.9 goals and Kilmarnock 0.9.
L
· Spain - La Liga
Each of Atletico Madrid's last 7 league matches had two or more goals.
D
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
Each of GO Ahead Eagles's last 7 league matches had two or more goals.
L
L
· Italy - Serie A
Each of Parma's last 4 league matches had two or more goals.
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 88%
Average price 1.05
RLERB LeipzigLWLLWEFREintracht FrankfurtWDWLD
Last 5 games
· Germany - Bundesliga
Each of RB Leipzig's last 4 league matches had two or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 83%
Average price 1.12
MANManchester UnitedDLLWDTOTTottenhamLLDDL
Last 5 games
· England - Premier League
4 of Manchester United's last 5 league matches had two or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 85%
Average price 1.10
FEYFeyenoordWWLWDAALAZ AlkmaarWLDWW
Last 5 games
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
Each of Feyenoord's last 6 league matches had three or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 74%
Average price 1.25
MARMaritimoDLLLDPORFC PortoWWWLW
Last 5 games
· Portugal - Primeira Liga
Each of FC Porto's last 7 league matches had two or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 86%
Average price 1.09
FSIFortuna SittardWWLWWTWETwenteWWWWD
Last 5 games
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
Each of Fortuna Sittard's last 3 home matches had two or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 88%
Average price 1.06
AJAAjaxDWWLWNNINEC NijmegenDLLDL
Last 5 games
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
Each of Ajax's last 7 league matches had two or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 88%
Average price 1.05
RMAReal MadridLWWWLVILVillarrealWWLLL
Last 5 games
· Spain - La Liga
Each of Villarreal's last 4 league matches had three or more goals.
See the full analysis