Leicester vs Peterborough prediction, Saturday 10 October: chances and analysisBack to today's picks
· England - League One
Leicester v PeterboroughHomevAwayHomevAway
No pick for this match: no market passed our rules.
Our model's chances
Chances of each result: Leicester win 57%, Draw 22%, Peterborough win 21%.
Leicester host Peterborough in the League One, England.
Our model gives Leicester a 57% chance of winning, a draw 22% and Peterborough 21%.
The model expects Leicester to score 2.0 goals and Peterborough 1.0.
Leicester have won 2 of their last 6 league matches; Peterborough have won 0 of 6.
Top factors
- Leicester sit 14th with 9 points; Peterborough sit 23rd with 5 points.
- Leicester have taken 8 points from their last 5 matches; Peterborough 2 from 5.
- At home, Leicester have taken 3 points from their last 3; away, Peterborough have taken 1 from their last 3.
Chances and prices are from our nightly scan before the match. Nothing after that is used.
Key numbers, the table, form, head to head and more.
Our model's chance for each market, with the bookmakers' average price.
- Leicester win
- 57% · price 1.58
Peterborough win21% · price 4.75 Over 1.5 goals79% · price 1.10 Over 2.5 goals57% · price 1.38 Both teams score53% · price 1.45 Expected goals (our model)Leicester 2.0, Peterborough 1.0 Context onlyTable position isn't in the model.
Where the teams sit in the League One, before kick-off.
Leicester sit 14th with 9 points; Peterborough sit 23rd with 5. A gap of 7 in goal difference, in favour of Leicester; Leicester have played 1 fewer.
Stored before 7 October 2026: wins, draws, losses and goals were not kept.
- 13th Stevenage9 points from 7 games · goal difference +3
- 14th Leicester9 points from 7 games · goal difference -2
- 15th Blackpool8 points from 7 games · goal difference 0
- 22nd Milton Keynes Dons6 points from 7 games · goal difference -2
- 23rd Peterborough5 points from 8 games · goal difference -9
- 24th Wigan4 points from 7 games · goal difference -7
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|
| 13 | Stevenage | 7 | – | – | – | – | – | +3 | 9 |
| 14 | Leicester | 7 | – | – | – | – | – | -2 | 9 |
| 15 | Blackpool | 7 | – | – | – | – | – | 0 | 8 |
| 22 | Milton Keynes Dons | 7 | – | – | – | – | – | -2 | 6 |
| 23 | Peterborough | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | -9 | 5 |
| 24 | Wigan | 7 | – | – | – | – | – | -7 |
Show full tableShow less
- 1st Plymouth16 points from 9 games · goal difference +5
- 2nd Bradford16 points from 8 games · goal difference +3
- 3rd Huddersfield15 points from 8 games · goal difference +7
- 4th Sheffield Wednesday14 points from 7 games · goal difference +7
- 5th Stockport County13 points from 8 games · goal difference +7
- 6th Cambridge United13 points from 8 games · goal difference +2
- 7th Reading12 points from 8 games · goal difference +7
- 8th Burton Albion12 points from 9 games · goal difference -1
- 9th AFC Wimbledon12 points from 8 games · goal difference -2
- 10th Oxford United11 points from 6 games · goal difference +6
- 11th Leyton Orient
Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.
Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
DDrewat Barnsley19 Sept 2026 · League One · Away1–1
WWonat Stockport County12 Sept 2026 · League One · Away4–3
LLostv Oxford United5 Sept 2026 · League One · Home0–4
WWonv Plymouth1 Sept 2026 · League One · Home2–0
DDrewat Milton Keynes Dons29 Aug 2026 · League One · Away0–0
Show last 6 matchesShowing 6
LLostv Burton Albion22 Aug 2026 · League One · Home1–2
Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.
Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
LLostat Stockport County26 Sept 2026 · League One · Away0–1
LLostv Doncaster19 Sept 2026 · League One · Home0–2
DDrewat Milton Keynes Dons12 Sept 2026 · League One · Away1–1
LLostv Sheffield Wednesday5 Sept 2026 · League One · Home1–2
DDrewv Stevenage1 Sept 2026 · League One · Home0–0
Show last 6 matchesShowing 6
LLostat Blackpool29 Aug 2026 · League One · Away0–4
In the modelThe model rates each team's home and away records separately.
The last 5 and 10 matches, then Leicester at home and Peterborough away only: a home fixture is read from home matches where there are enough.
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
Leicester
- Last 5 (5)2 won, 2 drawn, 1 lost · 7 scored, 8 conceded · 1.60 points a game · 2 clean sheets · failed to score in 2
- Last 10 (6)2 won, 2 drawn, 2 lost · 8 scored, 10 conceded · 1.33 points a game · 2 clean sheets · failed to score in 2
- Home, last 5 (3)1 won, 0 drawn, 2 lost · 3 scored, 6 conceded · 1.00 points a game · 1 clean sheet · failed to score in 1
- Home, last 10 (3)1 won, 0 drawn, 2 lost · 3 scored, 6 conceded · 1.00 points a game · 1 clean sheet · failed to score in 1
Leicester| Sample | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | CS | FTS |
|---|
| Last 5 (5) | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 8 | -1 | 8 | 1.60 | 2 | 2 |
|---|
| Last 10 (6) | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 10 | -2 | 8 | 1.33 | 2 | 2 |
|---|
| Home, last 5 (3) | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 3 | 1.00 | 1 | 1 |
|---|
| Home, last 10 (3) | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 3 | 1.00 | 1 | 1 |
|---|
Peterborough
- Last 5 (5)0 won, 2 drawn, 3 lost · 2 scored, 6 conceded · 0.40 points a game · 1 clean sheet · failed to score in 3
- Last 10 (6)0 won, 2 drawn, 4 lost · 2 scored, 10 conceded · 0.33 points a game · 1 clean sheet · failed to score in 4
- Away, last 5 (3)0 won, 1 drawn, 2 lost · 1 scored, 6 conceded · 0.33 points a game · 0 clean sheets · failed to score in 2
- Away, last 10 (3)0 won, 1 drawn, 2 lost · 1 scored, 6 conceded · 0.33 points a game · 0 clean sheets · failed to score in 2
Peterborough| Sample | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | CS | FTS |
|---|
| Last 5 (5) | 5 | 0 |
|---|
Leicester at home: Insufficient historical data. Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
Peterborough away: Insufficient historical data. Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
Context onlyShown for context. The model's own ratings come from goals scored and conceded this season and last.
| Measure | Leicester | Peterborough |
|---|
| League position | 14th | 23rd |
|---|
| Points per game | 1.29 | 0.63 |
|---|
| Attack: goals per game (last 6 and 6) | 1.33 | 0.33 |
|---|
| Defence: conceded per game (last 6 and 6) | 1.67 | 1.67 |
|---|
| Clean sheets | 2 | 1 |
|---|
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
In the modelMissing players move the model's expected goals, chiefly a missing top scorer.
Players out or doubtful, as reported the night before.
Peterborough
None reported.
Yesterday: 4 of 4 picks won. See every pick
Today's picks
Today, Saturday 10 October
Times shown in your time (EDT)
Showing the top 20 of 26 picks, in kick-off order. 6 more are under Show all.Updating…
Starting in 3 to 6 hours (12)
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 71%
Average price 1.32
GENGenoaLLWDLFIOFiorentinaDWW
10 points from 8 games · goal difference +2
12th Wycombe10 points from 8 games · goal difference -313th Stevenage9 points from 7 games · goal difference +314th Leicester9 points from 7 games · goal difference -215th Blackpool8 points from 7 games · goal difference 016th Luton8 points from 7 games · goal difference -217th Mansfield Town8 points from 7 games · goal difference -318th Barnsley8 points from 7 games · goal difference -519th Bromley8 points from 7 games · goal difference -1020th Notts County7 points from 7 games · goal difference -221st Doncaster6 points from 7 games · goal difference -122nd Milton Keynes Dons6 points from 7 games · goal difference -223rd Peterborough5 points from 8 games · goal difference -924th Wigan4 points from 7 games · goal difference -7| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|
| 1 | Plymouth | 9 | – | – | – | – | – | +5 | 16 |
| 2 | Bradford | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | +3 | 16 |
| 3 | Huddersfield | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | +7 | 15 |
| 4 | Sheffield Wednesday | 7 | – | – | – | – | – | +7 | 14 |
| 5 | Stockport County | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | +7 | 13 |
| 6 | Cambridge United | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | +2 | 13 |
| 7 | Reading | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | +7 | 12 |
| 8 | Burton Albion | 9 | – | – | – | – | – | -1 | 12 |
| 9 | AFC Wimbledon | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | -2 | 12 |
| 10 | Oxford United | 6 | – | – | – | – | – | +6 | 11 |
| 11 | Leyton Orient | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | +2 | 10 |
| 12 | Wycombe | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | -3 | 10 |
| 13 | Stevenage | 7 | – | – | – | – | – | +3 | 9 |
| 14 | Leicester | 7 | – | – | – | – | – | -2 | 9 |
| 15 | Blackpool | 7 | – | – | – | – | – | 0 | 8 |
| 16 | Luton | 7 | – | – | – | – | – | -2 | 8 |
| 17 | Mansfield Town | 7 | – | – | – | – | – | -3 | 8 |
| 18 | Barnsley | 7 | – | – | – | – | – | -5 | 8 |
| 19 | Bromley | 7 | – | – | – | – | – | -10 | 8 |
| 20 | Notts County | 7 | – | – | – | – | – | -2 | 7 |
| 21 | Doncaster | 7 | – | – | – | – | – | -1 | 6 |
| 22 | Milton Keynes Dons | 7 | – | – | – | – | – | -2 | 6 |
| 23 | Peterborough | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | -9 | 5 |
| 24 | Wigan | 7 | – | – | – | – | – | -7 | 4 |
| Last 10 (6) | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 10 | -8 | 2 | 0.33 | 1 | 4 |
|---|
| Away, last 5 (3) | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 6 | -5 | 1 | 0.33 | 0 | 2 |
|---|
| Away, last 10 (3) | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 6 | -5 | 1 | 0.33 | 0 | 2 |
|---|
L
L
· Italy - Serie A
Each of Fiorentina's last 5 league matches had two or more goals.
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
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Average price 1.03
AUGFC AugsburgDLDWWBMUBayern MünchenWWWDW
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Each of FC Augsburg's last 4 league matches had three or more goals.
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HOF1899 HoffenheimLLWLLHAMHamburger SVWWLLL
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Each of 1899 Hoffenheim's last 4 league matches had three or more goals.
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PADSC Paderborn 07WWLLDVSTVfB StuttgartWWLLW
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See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 82%
Average price 1.13
UBEUnion BerlinWLLLDELVSV ElversbergLDLWW
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Each of Union Berlin's last 4 league matches had three or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
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Average price 1.11
FMAFSV Mainz 05WWLWDBLEBayer LeverkusenWWDWL
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Each of Bayer Leverkusen's last 4 league matches had two or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
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Average price 1.13
CHEChelseaLDWLWBOUBournemouthLWDWD
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Each of Middlesbrough's last 4 home matches had three or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 75%
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PREPrestonDLLWLMILMillwallDDLLW
Last 5 games
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Each of Millwall's last 8 league matches had two or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
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Average price 1.08
RANRangersWWWWWKILKilmarnockDWDDL
Last 5 games
· Scotland - Premiership
The model expects Rangers to score 1.9 goals and Kilmarnock 0.9.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 75%
Average price 1.25
ALAAlavesDLLWWAMAAtletico MadridWWWLL
Last 5 games
· Spain - La Liga
Each of Atletico Madrid's last 7 league matches had two or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
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Average price 1.09
GAEGO Ahead EaglesDDDLWSROSparta RotterdamLLDLD
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· Netherlands - Eredivisie
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See the full analysisStarting later (8)
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 86%
Average price 1.08
INTInterWDWLWPARParmaWLDLL
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· Italy - Serie A
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See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 88%
Average price 1.05
RLERB LeipzigLWLLWEFREintracht FrankfurtWDWL
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
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Average price 1.12
MANManchester UnitedDLLWDTOTTottenhamLLDD
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 85%
Average price 1.10
FEYFeyenoordWWLWDAALAZ AlkmaarWLDW
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 74%
Average price 1.25
MARMaritimoDLLLDPORFC PortoWWWL
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
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Average price 1.09
FSIFortuna SittardWWLWWTWETwenteWWWW
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
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Average price 1.06
AJAAjaxDWWLWNNINEC NijmegenDLLD
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
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Average price 1.05
RMAReal MadridLWWWLVILVillarrealWWLL
D
· Germany - Bundesliga
Each of RB Leipzig's last 4 league matches had two or more goals.
L
· England - Premier League
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W
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
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W
· Portugal - Primeira Liga
Each of FC Porto's last 7 league matches had two or more goals.
D
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Each of Fortuna Sittard's last 3 home matches had two or more goals.
L
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Each of Ajax's last 7 league matches had two or more goals.
L
· Spain - La Liga
Each of Villarreal's last 4 league matches had three or more goals.