Lund vs Trollhättan prediction, Saturday 10 October: chances and analysisBack to today's picks
· Sweden - Ettan - Södra
Lund v TrollhättanHomevAwayHomevAway
No pick for this match: no market passed our rules.
Our model's chances
Chances of each result: Lund win 48%, Draw 24%, Trollhättan win 28%.
Lund host Trollhättan in the Ettan - Södra, Sweden.
Our model gives Lund a 48% chance of winning, a draw 24% and Trollhättan 28%.
The model expects Lund to score 1.7 goals and Trollhättan 1.3.
Lund have won 2 of their last 6 league matches; Trollhättan have won 5 of 6.
Top factors
- Lund sit 4th with 41 points; Trollhättan sit 6th with 38 points.
- Lund have taken 6 points from their last 5 matches; Trollhättan 13 from 5.
- At home, Lund have taken 6 points from their last 4; away, Trollhättan have taken 7 from their last 3.
Chances and prices are from our nightly scan before the match. Nothing after that is used.
Key numbers, the table, form, head to head and more.
Our model's chance for each market, with the bookmakers' average price.
Yesterday: 4 of 4 picks won. See every pick
Today's picks
Today, Saturday 10 October
Times shown in your time (EDT)
Trollhättan win28% · price 3.64 Over 1.5 goals79% · price 1.14 Over 2.5 goals57% · price 1.51 Both teams score55% · price 1.48 Expected goals (our model)Lund 1.7, Trollhättan 1.3 Context onlyTable position isn't in the model.
Where the teams sit in the Ettan - Södra, before kick-off.
Lund sit 4th with 41 points; Trollhättan sit 6th with 38. A gap of 12 in goal difference, in favour of Lund.
Stored before 7 October 2026: wins, draws, losses and goals were not kept.
- 3rd Hässleholms IF45 points from 25 games · goal difference +16
- 4th Lund41 points from 25 games · goal difference +17
- 5th AFC Malmo41 points from 25 games · goal difference +10
- 6th Trollhättan38 points from 25 games · goal difference +5
- 7th Rosengård38 points from 25 games · goal difference +4
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|
| 3 | Hässleholms IF | 25 | – | – | – | – | – | +16 | 45 |
| 4 | Lund | 25 | – | – | – | – | – | +17 | 41 |
| 5 | AFC Malmo | 25 | – | – | – | – | – | +10 | 41 |
| 6 | Trollhättan | 25 | – | – | – | – | – | +5 | 38 |
| 7 | Rosengård | 25 | – | – | – | – | – | +4 | 38 |
Show full tableShow less
- 1st Trelleborg54 points from 25 games · goal difference +27
- 2nd Atvidabergs FF46 points from 25 games · goal difference +14
- 3rd Hässleholms IF45 points from 25 games · goal difference +16
- 4th Lund41 points from 25 games · goal difference +17
- 5th AFC Malmo41 points from 25 games · goal difference +10
- 6th Trollhättan38 points from 25 games · goal difference +5
- 7th Rosengård38 points from 25 games · goal difference +4
- 8th Jonkopings Sodra33 points from 25 games · goal difference +3
- 9th Tvååker33 points from 25 games · goal difference -6
- 10th Skövde AIK33 points from 25 games · goal difference -7
- 11th Eskilsminne
Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.
Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
LLostv Laholm2 Oct 2026 · Ettan - Södra · Home0–1
LLostv Kristianstad25 Sept 2026 · Ettan - Södra · Home0–1
LLostat Atvidabergs FF19 Sept 2026 · Ettan - Södra · Away0–1
WWonv Angelholms FF16 Sept 2026 · Ettan - Södra · Home2–0
WWonv Rosengård11 Sept 2026 · Ettan - Södra · Home2–0
Show last 6 matchesShowing 6
DDrewat Utsikten5 Sept 2026 · Ettan - Södra · Away1–1
Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.
Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
DDrewat Atvidabergs FF3 Oct 2026 · Ettan - Södra · Away1–1
WWonv Tvååker26 Sept 2026 · Ettan - Södra · Home4–2
WWonat Hässleholms IF20 Sept 2026 · Ettan - Södra · Away1–0
WWonat Skövde AIK17 Sept 2026 · Ettan - Södra · Away3–1
WWonv Utsikten11 Sept 2026 · Ettan - Södra · Home5–0
Show last 6 matchesShowing 6
WWonv Eskilsminne5 Sept 2026 · Ettan - Södra · Home4–2
In the modelThe model rates each team's home and away records separately.
The last 5 and 10 matches, then Lund at home and Trollhättan away only: a home fixture is read from home matches where there are enough.
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
Lund
- Last 5 (5)2 won, 0 drawn, 3 lost · 4 scored, 3 conceded · 1.20 points a game · 2 clean sheets · failed to score in 3
- Last 10 (6)2 won, 1 drawn, 3 lost · 5 scored, 4 conceded · 1.17 points a game · 2 clean sheets · failed to score in 3
- Home, last 5 (4)2 won, 0 drawn, 2 lost · 4 scored, 2 conceded · 1.50 points a game · 2 clean sheets · failed to score in 2
- Home, last 10 (4)2 won, 0 drawn, 2 lost · 4 scored, 2 conceded · 1.50 points a game · 2 clean sheets · failed to score in 2
Lund| Sample | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | CS | FTS |
|---|
| Last 5 (5) | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 3 | +1 | 6 | 1.20 | 2 | 3 |
|---|
| Last 10 (6) | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 4 | +1 | 7 | 1.17 | 2 | 3 |
|---|
| Home, last 5 (4) | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 2 | +2 | 6 | 1.50 | 2 | 2 |
|---|
| Home, last 10 (4) | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 2 | +2 | 6 | 1.50 | 2 | 2 |
|---|
Trollhättan
- Last 5 (5)4 won, 1 drawn, 0 lost · 14 scored, 4 conceded · 2.60 points a game · 2 clean sheets · failed to score in 0
- Last 10 (6)5 won, 1 drawn, 0 lost · 18 scored, 6 conceded · 2.67 points a game · 2 clean sheets · failed to score in 0
- Away, last 5 (3)2 won, 1 drawn, 0 lost · 5 scored, 2 conceded · 2.33 points a game · 1 clean sheet · failed to score in 0
- Away, last 10 (3)2 won, 1 drawn, 0 lost · 5 scored, 2 conceded · 2.33 points a game · 1 clean sheet · failed to score in 0
Trollhättan| Sample | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | CS | FTS |
|---|
| Last 5 (5) | 5 | 4 |
|---|
Lund at home: Insufficient historical data. Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
Trollhättan away: Insufficient historical data. Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
Context onlyShown for context. The model's own ratings come from goals scored and conceded this season and last.
| Measure | Lund | Trollhättan |
|---|
| League position | 4th | 6th |
|---|
| Points per game | 1.64 | 1.52 |
|---|
| Attack: goals per game (last 6 and 6) | 0.83 | 3.00 |
|---|
| Defence: conceded per game (last 6 and 6) | 0.67 | 1.00 |
|---|
| Clean sheets | 2 | 2 |
|---|
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
In the modelMissing players move the model's expected goals, chiefly a missing top scorer.
Players out or doubtful, as reported the night before.
Trollhättan
None reported.
Context onlyFacts pointing the other way. The model doesn't read them.
Evidence pointing the other way.
- Trollhättan have the better recent form: 13 points from 5 against 6 from 5.
Showing the top 20 of 26 picks, in kick-off order. 6 more are under Show all.Updating…
Starting in 3 to 6 hours (12)
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 71%
Average price 1.32
GENGenoaLLWDLFIOFiorentinaDWWLL
Last 5 games
· Italy - Serie A
Each of Fiorentina's last 5 league matches had two or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 93%
Average price 1.03
AUGFC AugsburgDLDWWBMUBayern MünchenWWWD
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 85%
Average price 1.10
HOF1899 HoffenheimLLWLLHAMHamburger SVWWLL
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 87%
Average price 1.07
PADSC Paderborn 07WWLLDVSTVfB StuttgartWWLL
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 82%
Average price 1.13
UBEUnion BerlinWLLLDELVSV ElversbergLDLW
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 84%
Average price 1.11
FMAFSV Mainz 05WWLWDBLEBayer LeverkusenWWDW
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 83%
Average price 1.13
CHEChelseaLDWLWBOUBournemouthLWDW
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 79%
Average price 1.18
MIDMiddlesbroughDDWLWWOLWolvesWLWD
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 75%
Average price 1.25
PREPrestonDLLWLMILMillwallDDLL
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 86%
Average price 1.08
RANRangersWWWWWKILKilmarnockDWDD
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 75%
Average price 1.25
ALAAlavesDLLWWAMAAtletico MadridWWWL
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 85%
Average price 1.09
GAEGO Ahead EaglesDDDLWSROSparta RotterdamLLDL
Starting later (8)
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 86%
Average price 1.08
INTInterWDWLWPARParmaWLD
32 points from 25 games · goal difference -4
12th Olympic30 points from 25 games · goal difference -713th Kristianstad27 points from 25 games · goal difference -814th Laholm25 points from 25 games · goal difference -1115th Angelholms FF21 points from 25 games · goal difference -1616th Utsikten12 points from 25 games · goal difference -37| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|
| 1 | Trelleborg | 25 | – | – | – | – | – | +27 | 54 |
| 2 | Atvidabergs FF | 25 | – | – | – | – | – | +14 | 46 |
| 3 | Hässleholms IF | 25 | – | – | – | – | – | +16 | 45 |
| 4 | Lund | 25 | – | – | – | – | – | +17 | 41 |
| 5 | AFC Malmo | 25 | – | – | – | – | – | +10 | 41 |
| 6 | Trollhättan | 25 | – | – | – | – | – | +5 | 38 |
| 7 | Rosengård | 25 | – | – | – | – | – | +4 | 38 |
| 8 | Jonkopings Sodra | 25 | – | – | – | – | – | +3 | 33 |
| 9 | Tvååker | 25 | – | – | – | – | – | -6 | 33 |
| 10 | Skövde AIK | 25 | – | – | – | – | – | -7 | 33 |
| 11 | Eskilsminne | 25 | – | – | – | – | – | -4 | 32 |
| 12 | Olympic | 25 | – | – | – | – | – | -7 | 30 |
| 13 | Kristianstad | 25 | – | – | – | – | – | -8 | 27 |
| 14 | Laholm | 25 | – | – | – | – | – | -11 | 25 |
| 15 | Angelholms FF | 25 | – | – | – | – | – | -16 | 21 |
| 16 | Utsikten | 25 | – | – | – | – | – | -37 | 12 |
| Last 10 (6) | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 18 | 6 | +12 | 16 | 2.67 | 2 | 0 |
|---|
| Away, last 5 (3) | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 2 | +3 | 7 | 2.33 | 1 | 0 |
|---|
| Away, last 10 (3) | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 2 | +3 | 7 | 2.33 | 1 | 0 |
|---|
W
· Germany - Bundesliga
Each of FC Augsburg's last 4 league matches had three or more goals.
L
· Germany - Bundesliga
Each of 1899 Hoffenheim's last 4 league matches had three or more goals.
W
· Germany - Bundesliga
3 of VfB Stuttgart's last 4 league matches had two or more goals.
W
· Germany - Bundesliga
Each of Union Berlin's last 4 league matches had three or more goals.
L
· Germany - Bundesliga
Each of Bayer Leverkusen's last 4 league matches had two or more goals.
D
· England - Premier League
Each of Chelsea's last 5 league matches had three or more goals.
L
· England - Championship
Each of Middlesbrough's last 4 home matches had three or more goals.
W
· England - Championship
Each of Millwall's last 8 league matches had two or more goals.
L
· Scotland - Premiership
The model expects Rangers to score 1.9 goals and Kilmarnock 0.9.
L
· Spain - La Liga
Each of Atletico Madrid's last 7 league matches had two or more goals.
D
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
Each of GO Ahead Eagles's last 7 league matches had two or more goals.
L
L
· Italy - Serie A
Each of Parma's last 4 league matches had two or more goals.
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 88%
Average price 1.05
RLERB LeipzigLWLLWEFREintracht FrankfurtWDWLD
Last 5 games
· Germany - Bundesliga
Each of RB Leipzig's last 4 league matches had two or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 83%
Average price 1.12
MANManchester UnitedDLLWDTOTTottenhamLLDDL
Last 5 games
· England - Premier League
4 of Manchester United's last 5 league matches had two or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 85%
Average price 1.10
FEYFeyenoordWWLWDAALAZ AlkmaarWLDWW
Last 5 games
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
Each of Feyenoord's last 6 league matches had three or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 74%
Average price 1.25
MARMaritimoDLLLDPORFC PortoWWWLW
Last 5 games
· Portugal - Primeira Liga
Each of FC Porto's last 7 league matches had two or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 86%
Average price 1.09
FSIFortuna SittardWWLWWTWETwenteWWWWD
Last 5 games
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
Each of Fortuna Sittard's last 3 home matches had two or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 88%
Average price 1.06
AJAAjaxDWWLWNNINEC NijmegenDLLDL
Last 5 games
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
Each of Ajax's last 7 league matches had two or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 88%
Average price 1.05
RMAReal MadridLWWWLVILVillarrealWWLLL
Last 5 games
· Spain - La Liga
Each of Villarreal's last 4 league matches had three or more goals.
See the full analysis