Meux vs Rochefort prediction, Saturday 10 October: chances and analysisBack to today's picks
· Belgium - First Amateur Division
Meux v RochefortHomevAwayHomevAway
No pick for this match: no market passed our rules.
Our model's chances
Chances of each result: Meux win 49%, Draw 24%, Rochefort win 26%.
Meux host Rochefort in the First Amateur Division, Belgium.
Our model gives Meux a 49% chance of winning, a draw 24% and Rochefort 26%.
The model expects Meux to score 1.7 goals and Rochefort 1.2.
Meux have won 4 of their last 6 league matches; Rochefort have won 3 of 6.
Top factors
- Meux sit 4th with 14 points; Rochefort sit 3rd with 14 points.
- Meux have taken 10 points from their last 5 matches; Rochefort 8 from 5.
- At home, Meux have taken 6 points from their last 3; away, Rochefort have taken 4 from their last 2.
Chances and prices are from our nightly scan before the match. Nothing after that is used.
Key numbers, the table, form, head to head and more.
Our model's chance for each market, with the bookmakers' average price.
Yesterday: 4 of 4 picks won. See every pick
Today's picks
Today, Saturday 10 October
Times shown in your time (EDT)
Showing the top 20 of 26 picks, in kick-off order. 6 more are under Show all.Updating…
Starting in 3 to 6 hours (12)
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 71%
Average price 1.32
GENGenoaLLWDLFIOFiorentinaDWW
Rochefort win26% · price 2.20 Over 1.5 goals78% · price 1.16 Over 2.5 goals56% · price 1.61 Both teams score54% · price 1.49 Expected goals (our model)Meux 1.7, Rochefort 1.2 Context onlyTable position isn't in the model.
Where the teams sit in the First Amateur Division, before kick-off.
Meux sit 4th with 14 points; Rochefort sit 3rd with 14. A gap of 2 in goal difference, in favour of Rochefort.
Stored before 7 October 2026: wins, draws, losses and goals were not kept.
- 2nd Houtvenne15 points from 6 games · goal difference +9
- 3rd Rochefort14 points from 7 games · goal difference +7
- 4th Meux14 points from 7 games · goal difference +5
- 5th Tubize14 points from 7 games · goal difference +2
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|
| 2 | Houtvenne | 6 | – | – | – | – | – | +9 | 15 |
| 3 | Rochefort | 7 | – | – | – | – | – | +7 | 14 |
| 4 | Meux | 7 | – | – | – | – | – | +5 | 14 |
| 5 | Tubize | 7 | – | – | – | – | – | +2 | 14 |
Show full tableShow less
- 1st RWDM16 points from 7 games · goal difference +5
- 2nd Houtvenne15 points from 6 games · goal difference +9
- 3rd Rochefort14 points from 7 games · goal difference +7
- 4th Meux14 points from 7 games · goal difference +5
- 5th Tubize14 points from 7 games · goal difference +2
- 6th Oud-Heverlee Leuven II12 points from 6 games · goal difference +2
- 7th Albert Quévy-Mons11 points from 7 games · goal difference +8
- 8th Roeselare Daisel11 points from 6 games · goal difference +6
- 9th Merelbeke11 points from 6 games · goal difference +5
- 10th Dessel Sport11 points from 6 games · goal difference +2
- 11th Union Saint-Gilloise II
Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.
Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
DDrewat Olympic Charleroi3 Oct 2026 · First Amateur Division · Away1–1
WWonv Onhaye26 Sept 2026 · First Amateur Division · Home2–1
LLostv RWDM19 Sept 2026 · First Amateur Division · Home0–1
WWonat Flénu13 Sept 2026 · First Amateur Division · Away4–1
WWonat Standard Liège II6 Sept 2026 · First Amateur Division · Away1–0
Show last 6 matchesShowing 6
WWonv Union Saint-Gilloise II29 Aug 2026 · First Amateur Division · Home2–1
Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.
Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
WWonv Standard Liège II3 Oct 2026 · First Amateur Division · Home1–0
DDrewat RWDM30 Sept 2026 · First Amateur Division · Away1–1
DDrewv Sporting Charleroi II19 Sept 2026 · First Amateur Division · Home1–1
LLostv Onhaye12 Sept 2026 · First Amateur Division · Home1–2
WWonat Tubize5 Sept 2026 · First Amateur Division · Away4–1
Show last 6 matchesShowing 6
WWonv Habay-la-Neuve29 Aug 2026 · First Amateur Division · Home4–2
In the modelThe model rates each team's home and away records separately.
The last 5 and 10 matches, then Meux at home and Rochefort away only: a home fixture is read from home matches where there are enough.
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
Meux
- Last 5 (5)3 won, 1 drawn, 1 lost · 8 scored, 4 conceded · 2.00 points a game · 1 clean sheet · failed to score in 1
- Last 10 (6)4 won, 1 drawn, 1 lost · 10 scored, 5 conceded · 2.17 points a game · 1 clean sheet · failed to score in 1
- Home, last 5 (3)2 won, 0 drawn, 1 lost · 4 scored, 3 conceded · 2.00 points a game · 0 clean sheets · failed to score in 1
- Home, last 10 (3)2 won, 0 drawn, 1 lost · 4 scored, 3 conceded · 2.00 points a game · 0 clean sheets · failed to score in 1
Meux| Sample | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | CS | FTS |
|---|
| Last 5 (5) | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 4 | +4 | 10 | 2.00 | 1 | 1 |
|---|
| Last 10 (6) | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 5 | +5 | 13 | 2.17 | 1 | 1 |
|---|
| Home, last 5 (3) | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3 | +1 | 6 | 2.00 | 0 | 1 |
|---|
| Home, last 10 (3) | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3 | +1 | 6 | 2.00 | 0 | 1 |
|---|
Rochefort
- Last 5 (5)2 won, 2 drawn, 1 lost · 8 scored, 5 conceded · 1.60 points a game · 1 clean sheet · failed to score in 0
- Last 10 (6)3 won, 2 drawn, 1 lost · 12 scored, 7 conceded · 1.83 points a game · 1 clean sheet · failed to score in 0
- Away, last 5 (2)1 won, 1 drawn, 0 lost · 5 scored, 2 conceded · 2.00 points a game · 0 clean sheets · failed to score in 0
- Away, last 10 (2)1 won, 1 drawn, 0 lost · 5 scored, 2 conceded · 2.00 points a game · 0 clean sheets · failed to score in 0
Rochefort| Sample | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | CS | FTS |
|---|
| Last 5 (5) | 5 | 2 |
|---|
Meux at home: Insufficient historical data. Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
Rochefort away: Insufficient historical data. Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
Context onlyShown for context. The model's own ratings come from goals scored and conceded this season and last.
| Measure | Meux | Rochefort |
|---|
| League position | 4th | 3rd |
|---|
| Points per game | 2.00 | 2.00 |
|---|
| Attack: goals per game (last 6 and 6) | 1.67 | 2.00 |
|---|
| Defence: conceded per game (last 6 and 6) | 0.83 | 1.17 |
|---|
| Clean sheets | 1 | 1 |
|---|
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
In the modelMissing players move the model's expected goals, chiefly a missing top scorer.
Players out or doubtful, as reported the night before.
Context onlyFacts pointing the other way. The model doesn't read them.
Evidence pointing the other way.
- Meux have the better recent form: 10 points from 5 against 8 from 5.
L
L
· Italy - Serie A
Each of Fiorentina's last 5 league matches had two or more goals.
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 93%
Average price 1.03
AUGFC AugsburgDLDWWBMUBayern MünchenWWWDW
Last 5 games
· Germany - Bundesliga
Each of FC Augsburg's last 4 league matches had three or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 85%
Average price 1.10
HOF1899 HoffenheimLLWLLHAMHamburger SVWWLLL
Last 5 games
· Germany - Bundesliga
Each of 1899 Hoffenheim's last 4 league matches had three or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 87%
Average price 1.07
PADSC Paderborn 07WWLLDVSTVfB StuttgartWWLLW
Last 5 games
· Germany - Bundesliga
3 of VfB Stuttgart's last 4 league matches had two or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 82%
Average price 1.13
UBEUnion BerlinWLLLDELVSV ElversbergLDLWW
Last 5 games
· Germany - Bundesliga
Each of Union Berlin's last 4 league matches had three or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 84%
Average price 1.11
FMAFSV Mainz 05WWLWDBLEBayer LeverkusenWWDWL
Last 5 games
· Germany - Bundesliga
Each of Bayer Leverkusen's last 4 league matches had two or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 83%
Average price 1.13
CHEChelseaLDWLWBOUBournemouthLWDWD
Last 5 games
· England - Premier League
Each of Chelsea's last 5 league matches had three or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 79%
Average price 1.18
MIDMiddlesbroughDDWLWWOLWolvesWLWDL
Last 5 games
· England - Championship
Each of Middlesbrough's last 4 home matches had three or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 75%
Average price 1.25
PREPrestonDLLWLMILMillwallDDLLW
Last 5 games
· England - Championship
Each of Millwall's last 8 league matches had two or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 86%
Average price 1.08
RANRangersWWWWWKILKilmarnockDWDDL
Last 5 games
· Scotland - Premiership
The model expects Rangers to score 1.9 goals and Kilmarnock 0.9.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 75%
Average price 1.25
ALAAlavesDLLWWAMAAtletico MadridWWWLL
Last 5 games
· Spain - La Liga
Each of Atletico Madrid's last 7 league matches had two or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 85%
Average price 1.09
GAEGO Ahead EaglesDDDLWSROSparta RotterdamLLDLD
Last 5 games
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
Each of GO Ahead Eagles's last 7 league matches had two or more goals.
See the full analysisStarting later (8)
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 86%
Average price 1.08
INTInterWDWLWPARParmaWLDLL
Last 5 games
· Italy - Serie A
Each of Parma's last 4 league matches had two or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 88%
Average price 1.05
RLERB LeipzigLWLLWEFREintracht FrankfurtWDWL
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 83%
Average price 1.12
MANManchester UnitedDLLWDTOTTottenhamLLDD
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 85%
Average price 1.10
FEYFeyenoordWWLWDAALAZ AlkmaarWLDW
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 74%
Average price 1.25
MARMaritimoDLLLDPORFC PortoWWWL
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 86%
Average price 1.09
FSIFortuna SittardWWLWWTWETwenteWWWW
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 88%
Average price 1.06
AJAAjaxDWWLWNNINEC NijmegenDLLD
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 88%
Average price 1.05
RMAReal MadridLWWWLVILVillarrealWWLL
11 points from 7 games · goal difference +2
12th Mandel United10 points from 6 games · goal difference +313th Knokke10 points from 6 games · goal difference +214th Thes Sport9 points from 6 games · goal difference +215th Sporting Charleroi II9 points from 7 games · goal difference +116th Tienen8 points from 6 games · goal difference +417th Olympic Charleroi8 points from 6 games · goal difference -218th Spouwen-Mopertingen7 points from 6 games · goal difference 019th Heist7 points from 6 games · goal difference -320th Hoogstraten6 points from 6 games · goal difference +121st Lyra-Lierse Berlaar6 points from 6 games · goal difference -422nd Onhaye6 points from 7 games · goal difference -723rd Habay-la-Neuve5 points from 7 games · goal difference -524th Standard Liège II4 points from 6 games · goal difference -325th Cercle Brugge II4 points from 6 games · goal difference -726th Zelzate3 points from 6 games · goal difference -727th Flénu1 points from 7 games · goal difference -1328th Harelbeke1 points from 6 games · goal difference -15| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|
| 1 | RWDM | 7 | – | – | – | – | – | +5 | 16 |
| 2 | Houtvenne | 6 | – | – | – | – | – | +9 | 15 |
| 3 | Rochefort | 7 | – | – | – | – | – | +7 | 14 |
| 4 | Meux | 7 | – | – | – | – | – | +5 | 14 |
| 5 | Tubize | 7 | – | – | – | – | – | +2 | 14 |
| 6 | Oud-Heverlee Leuven II | 6 | – | – | – | – | – | +2 | 12 |
| 7 | Albert Quévy-Mons | 7 | – | – | – | – | – | +8 | 11 |
| 8 | Roeselare Daisel | 6 | – | – | – | – | – | +6 | 11 |
| 9 | Merelbeke | 6 | – | – | – | – | – | +5 | 11 |
| 10 | Dessel Sport | 6 | – | – | – | – | – | +2 | 11 |
| 11 | Union Saint-Gilloise II | 7 | – | – | – | – | – | +2 | 11 |
| 12 | Mandel United | 6 | – | – | – | – | – | +3 | 10 |
| 13 | Knokke | 6 | – | – | – | – | – | +2 | 10 |
| 14 | Thes Sport | 6 | – | – | – | – | – | +2 | 9 |
| 15 | Sporting Charleroi II | 7 | – | – | – | – | – | +1 | 9 |
| 16 | Tienen | 6 | – | – | – | – | – | +4 | 8 |
| 17 | Olympic Charleroi | 6 | – | – | – | – | – | -2 | 8 |
| 18 | Spouwen-Mopertingen | 6 | – | – | – | – | – | 0 | 7 |
| 19 | Heist | 6 | – | – | – | – | – | -3 | 7 |
| 20 | Hoogstraten | 6 | – | – | – | – | – | +1 | 6 |
| 21 | Lyra-Lierse Berlaar | 6 | – | – | – | – | – | -4 | 6 |
| 22 | Onhaye | 7 | – | – | – | – | – | -7 | 6 |
| 23 | Habay-la-Neuve | 7 | – | – | – | – | – | -5 | 5 |
| 24 | Standard Liège II | 6 | – | – | – | – | – | -3 | 4 |
| 25 | Cercle Brugge II | 6 | – | – | – | – | – | -7 | 4 |
| 26 | Zelzate | 6 | – | – | – | – | – | -7 | 3 |
| 27 | Flénu | 7 | – | – | – | – | – | -13 | 1 |
| 28 | Harelbeke | 6 | – | – | – | – | – | -15 | 1 |
| Last 10 (6) | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 12 | 7 | +5 | 11 | 1.83 | 1 | 0 |
|---|
| Away, last 5 (2) | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 2 | +3 | 4 | 2.00 | 0 | 0 |
|---|
| Away, last 10 (2) | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 2 | +3 | 4 | 2.00 | 0 | 0 |
|---|
D
· Germany - Bundesliga
Each of RB Leipzig's last 4 league matches had two or more goals.
L
· England - Premier League
4 of Manchester United's last 5 league matches had two or more goals.
W
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
Each of Feyenoord's last 6 league matches had three or more goals.
W
· Portugal - Primeira Liga
Each of FC Porto's last 7 league matches had two or more goals.
D
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
Each of Fortuna Sittard's last 3 home matches had two or more goals.
L
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
Each of Ajax's last 7 league matches had two or more goals.
L
· Spain - La Liga
Each of Villarreal's last 4 league matches had three or more goals.