Back to today's picks
· Argentina - Primera Nacional
Midland v Atletico DE RafaelaHomevAwayHomevAway
No pick for this match: no market passed our rules.
Our model's chances
Chances of each result: Midland win 51%, Draw 31%, Atletico DE Rafaela win 18%.
18%
Atletico DE Rafaela win
Midland host Atletico DE Rafaela in the Primera Nacional, Argentina.
Our model gives Midland a 51% chance of winning, a draw 31% and Atletico DE Rafaela 18%.
The model expects Midland to score 1.2 goals and Atletico DE Rafaela 0.6.
Midland have won 2 of their last 6 league matches; Atletico DE Rafaela have won 2 of 6.
Top factors
- Midland sit 10th with 48 points; Atletico DE Rafaela sit 19th with 42 points.
- Midland have taken 7 points from their last 5 matches; Atletico DE Rafaela 3 from 5.
- At home, Midland have taken 3 points from their last 2; away, Atletico DE Rafaela have taken 0 from their last 3.
Chances and prices are from our nightly scan before the match. Nothing after that is used.
Key numbers, the table, form, head to head and more.
Our model's chance for each market, with the bookmakers' average price.
- Midland win
- 51% · price 1.77
Atletico DE Rafaela win18% · price 5.12 Over 1.5 goals62% · price 1.62 Over 2.5 goals35% · price 2.94 Both teams score43% · price 2.58 Expected goals (our model)Midland 1.2, Atletico DE Rafaela 0.6 Context onlyTable position isn't in the model.
Where the teams sit in the Primera Nacional, before kick-off.
Midland sit 10th with 48 points; Atletico DE Rafaela sit 19th with 42. A gap of 11 in goal difference, in favour of Midland.
Stored before 7 October 2026: wins, draws, losses and goals were not kept.
- 9th Colon Santa Fe52 points from 32 games · goal difference +14
- 10th Midland48 points from 32 games · goal difference +8
- 11th Gimnasia Y Tiro48 points from 32 games · goal difference +4
- 18th San Martin Tucuman43 points from 32 games · goal difference +3
- 19th Atletico DE Rafaela42 points from 32 games · goal difference -3
- 20th Los Andes40 points from 32 games · goal difference +2
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|
| 9 | Colon Santa Fe | 32 | – | – | – | – | – | +14 | 52 |
| 10 | Midland | 32 | – | – | – | – | – | +8 | 48 |
| 11 | Gimnasia Y Tiro | 32 | – | – | – | – | – | +4 | 48 |
| 18 | San Martin Tucuman | 32 | – | – | – | – | – | +3 | 43 |
| 19 | Atletico DE Rafaela | 32 | – | – | – | – | – | -3 | 42 |
| 20 | Los Andes | 32 | – | – | – | – | – | +2 |
Show full tableShow less
- 1st Ferro Carril Oeste61 points from 32 games · goal difference +9
- 2nd Deportivo Moron58 points from 32 games · goal difference +19
- 3rd Tristan Suarez58 points from 32 games · goal difference +17
- 4th Godoy Cruz56 points from 32 games · goal difference +13
- 5th Temperley56 points from 32 games · goal difference +12
- 6th Atlanta55 points from 32 games · goal difference +8
- 7th Gimnasia Jujuy54 points from 32 games · goal difference +8
- 8th Deportivo Madryn53 points from 32 games · goal difference +18
- 9th Colon Santa Fe52 points from 32 games · goal difference +14
- 10th Midland48 points from 32 games · goal difference +8
- 11th Gimnasia Y Tiro
Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.
Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
DDrewat Agropecuario4 Oct 2026 · Primera Nacional · Away0–0
LLostv Tristan Suarez27 Sept 2026 · Primera Nacional · Home0–1
WWonat Club Atlético Güemes20 Sept 2026 · Primera Nacional · Away2–0
WWonv Chacarita Juniors13 Sept 2026 · Primera Nacional · Home1–0
LLostat San Martin S.J.6 Sept 2026 · Primera Nacional · Away2–3
Show last 6 matchesShowing 6
LLostat Colegiales2 Sept 2026 · Primera Nacional · Away0–3
Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.
Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
LLostv Atlanta4 Oct 2026 · Primera Nacional · Home2–3
LLostat Gimnasia Y Tiro27 Sept 2026 · Primera Nacional · Away0–1
WWonv San Martin Tucuman19 Sept 2026 · Primera Nacional · Home4–2
LLostat Gimnasia Jujuy13 Sept 2026 · Primera Nacional · Away1–2
LLostat Agropecuario6 Sept 2026 · Primera Nacional · Away0–2
Show last 6 matchesShowing 6
WWonv Tristan Suarez29 Aug 2026 · Primera Nacional · Home2–1
In the modelThe model rates each team's home and away records separately.
The last 5 and 10 matches, then Midland at home and Atletico DE Rafaela away only: a home fixture is read from home matches where there are enough.
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
Midland
- Last 5 (5)2 won, 1 drawn, 2 lost · 5 scored, 4 conceded · 1.40 points a game · 3 clean sheets · failed to score in 2
- Last 10 (6)2 won, 1 drawn, 3 lost · 5 scored, 7 conceded · 1.17 points a game · 3 clean sheets · failed to score in 3
- Home, last 5 (2)1 won, 0 drawn, 1 lost · 1 scored, 1 conceded · 1.50 points a game · 1 clean sheet · failed to score in 1
- Home, last 10 (2)1 won, 0 drawn, 1 lost · 1 scored, 1 conceded · 1.50 points a game · 1 clean sheet · failed to score in 1
Midland| Sample | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | CS | FTS |
|---|
| Last 5 (5) | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 4 | +1 | 7 | 1.40 | 3 | 2 |
|---|
| Last 10 (6) | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 7 | 1.17 | 3 | 3 |
|---|
| Home, last 5 (2) | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1.50 | 1 | 1 |
|---|
| Home, last 10 (2) | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1.50 | 1 | 1 |
|---|
Atletico DE Rafaela
- Last 5 (5)1 won, 0 drawn, 4 lost · 7 scored, 10 conceded · 0.60 points a game · 0 clean sheets · failed to score in 2
- Last 10 (6)2 won, 0 drawn, 4 lost · 9 scored, 11 conceded · 1.00 points a game · 0 clean sheets · failed to score in 2
- Away, last 5 (3)0 won, 0 drawn, 3 lost · 1 scored, 5 conceded · 0.00 points a game · 0 clean sheets · failed to score in 2
- Away, last 10 (3)0 won, 0 drawn, 3 lost · 1 scored, 5 conceded · 0.00 points a game · 0 clean sheets · failed to score in 2
Atletico DE Rafaela| Sample | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | CS | FTS |
|---|
| Last 5 (5) | 5 | 1 |
|---|
Midland at home: Insufficient historical data. Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
Atletico DE Rafaela away: Insufficient historical data. Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
Context onlyShown for context. The model's own ratings come from goals scored and conceded this season and last.
| Measure | Midland | Atletico DE Rafaela |
|---|
| League position | 10th | 19th |
|---|
| Points per game | 1.50 | 1.31 |
|---|
| Attack: goals per game (last 6 and 6) | 0.83 | 1.50 |
|---|
| Defence: conceded per game (last 6 and 6) | 1.17 | 1.83 |
|---|
| Clean sheets | 3 | 0 |
|---|
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
In the modelMissing players move the model's expected goals, chiefly a missing top scorer.
Players out or doubtful, as reported the night before.
Atletico DE Rafaela
None reported.
48 points from 32 games · goal difference +4
12th Deportivo Maipu47 points from 32 games · goal difference +813th Almirante Brown46 points from 32 games · goal difference +414th Colegiales46 points from 32 games · goal difference +115th San Martin S.J.45 points from 32 games · goal difference +216th CA Estudiantes45 points from 32 games · goal difference +217th Ciudad de Bolívar45 points from 32 games · goal difference -118th San Martin Tucuman43 points from 32 games · goal difference +319th Atletico DE Rafaela42 points from 32 games · goal difference -320th Los Andes40 points from 32 games · goal difference +221st Quilmes39 points from 32 games · goal difference +322nd Almagro38 points from 32 games · goal difference -1023rd Chaco For Ever37 points from 32 games · goal difference -324th Defensores De Belgrano37 points from 32 games · goal difference -425th San Telmo37 points from 32 games · goal difference -826th Agropecuario37 points from 32 games · goal difference -927th Racing Cordoba37 points from 32 games · goal difference -1028th Nueva Chicago36 points from 32 games · goal difference -729th Atletico Mitre35 points from 32 games · goal difference -1030th Patronato34 points from 32 games · goal difference -531st Chacarita Juniors33 points from 32 games · goal difference -932nd Central Norte33 points from 32 games · goal difference -933rd All Boys33 points from 32 games · goal difference -1034th San Miguel31 points from 32 games · goal difference -1335th Acassuso29 points from 32 games · goal difference -1336th Club Atlético Güemes23 points from 32 games · goal difference -31| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|
| 1 | Ferro Carril Oeste | 32 | – | – | – | – | – | +9 | 61 |
| 2 | Deportivo Moron | 32 | – | – | – | – | – | +19 | 58 |
| 3 | Tristan Suarez | 32 | – | – | – | – | – | +17 | 58 |
| 4 | Godoy Cruz | 32 | – | – | – | – | – | +13 | 56 |
| 5 | Temperley | 32 | – | – | – | – | – | +12 | 56 |
| 6 | Atlanta | 32 | – | – | – | – | – | +8 | 55 |
| 7 | Gimnasia Jujuy | 32 | – | – | – | – | – | +8 | 54 |
| 8 | Deportivo Madryn | 32 | – | – | – | – | – | +18 | 53 |
| 9 | Colon Santa Fe | 32 | – | – | – | – | – | +14 | 52 |
| 10 | Midland | 32 | – | – | – | – | – | +8 | 48 |
| 11 | Gimnasia Y Tiro | 32 | – | – | – | – | – | +4 | 48 |
| 12 | Deportivo Maipu | 32 | – | – | – | – | – | +8 | 47 |
| 13 | Almirante Brown | 32 | – | – | – | – | – | +4 | 46 |
| 14 | Colegiales | 32 | – | – | – | – | – | +1 | 46 |
| 15 | San Martin S.J. | 32 | – | – | – | – | – | +2 | 45 |
| 16 | CA Estudiantes | 32 | – | – | – | – | – | +2 | 45 |
| 17 | Ciudad de Bolívar | 32 | – | – | – | – | – | -1 | 45 |
| 18 | San Martin Tucuman | 32 | – | – | – | – | – | +3 | 43 |
| 19 | Atletico DE Rafaela | 32 | – | – | – | – | – | -3 | 42 |
| 20 | Los Andes | 32 | – | – | – | – | – | +2 | 40 |
| 21 | Quilmes | 32 | – | – | – | – | – | +3 | 39 |
| 22 | Almagro | 32 | – | – | – | – | – | -10 | 38 |
| 23 | Chaco For Ever | 32 | – | – | – | – | – | -3 | 37 |
| 24 | Defensores De Belgrano | 32 | – | – | – | – | – | -4 | 37 |
| 25 | San Telmo | 32 | – | – | – | – | – | -8 | 37 |
| 26 | Agropecuario | 32 | – | – | – | – | – | -9 | 37 |
| 27 | Racing Cordoba | 32 | – | – | – | – | – | -10 | 37 |
| 28 | Nueva Chicago | 32 | – | – | – | – | – | -7 | 36 |
| 29 | Atletico Mitre | 32 | – | – | – | – | – | -10 | 35 |
| 30 | Patronato | 32 | – | – | – | – | – | -5 | 34 |
| 31 | Chacarita Juniors | 32 | – | – | – | – | – | -9 | 33 |
| 32 | Central Norte | 32 | – | – | – | – | – | -9 | 33 |
| 33 | All Boys | 32 | – | – | – | – | – | -10 | 33 |
| 34 | San Miguel | 32 | – | – | – | – | – | -13 | 31 |
| 35 | Acassuso | 32 | – | – | – | – | – | -13 | 29 |
| 36 | Club Atlético Güemes | 32 | – | – | – | – | – | -31 | 23 |
| Last 10 (6) | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 9 | 11 | -2 | 6 | 1.00 | 0 | 2 |
|---|
| Away, last 5 (3) | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 5 | -4 | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 2 |
|---|
| Away, last 10 (3) | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 5 | -4 | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 2 |
|---|
Yesterday: 4 of 4 picks won. See every pick
Today's picks
Today, Saturday 10 October
Times shown in your time (EDT)
Showing the top 20 of 26 picks, in kick-off order. 6 more are under Show all.Updating…
Starting in 3 to 6 hours (12)
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 71%
Average price 1.32
GENGenoaLLWDLFIOFiorentinaDWW
L
L
· Italy - Serie A
Each of Fiorentina's last 5 league matches had two or more goals.
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 93%
Average price 1.03
AUGFC AugsburgDLDWWBMUBayern MünchenWWWDW
Last 5 games
· Germany - Bundesliga
Each of FC Augsburg's last 4 league matches had three or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 85%
Average price 1.10
HOF1899 HoffenheimLLWLLHAMHamburger SVWWLLL
Last 5 games
· Germany - Bundesliga
Each of 1899 Hoffenheim's last 4 league matches had three or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 87%
Average price 1.07
PADSC Paderborn 07WWLLDVSTVfB StuttgartWWLLW
Last 5 games
· Germany - Bundesliga
3 of VfB Stuttgart's last 4 league matches had two or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 82%
Average price 1.13
UBEUnion BerlinWLLLDELVSV ElversbergLDLWW
Last 5 games
· Germany - Bundesliga
Each of Union Berlin's last 4 league matches had three or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 84%
Average price 1.11
FMAFSV Mainz 05WWLWDBLEBayer LeverkusenWWDWL
Last 5 games
· Germany - Bundesliga
Each of Bayer Leverkusen's last 4 league matches had two or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 83%
Average price 1.13
CHEChelseaLDWLWBOUBournemouthLWDWD
Last 5 games
· England - Premier League
Each of Chelsea's last 5 league matches had three or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 79%
Average price 1.18
MIDMiddlesbroughDDWLWWOLWolvesWLWDL
Last 5 games
· England - Championship
Each of Middlesbrough's last 4 home matches had three or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 75%
Average price 1.25
PREPrestonDLLWLMILMillwallDDLLW
Last 5 games
· England - Championship
Each of Millwall's last 8 league matches had two or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 86%
Average price 1.08
RANRangersWWWWWKILKilmarnockDWDDL
Last 5 games
· Scotland - Premiership
The model expects Rangers to score 1.9 goals and Kilmarnock 0.9.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 75%
Average price 1.25
ALAAlavesDLLWWAMAAtletico MadridWWWLL
Last 5 games
· Spain - La Liga
Each of Atletico Madrid's last 7 league matches had two or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 85%
Average price 1.09
GAEGO Ahead EaglesDDDLWSROSparta RotterdamLLDLD
Last 5 games
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
Each of GO Ahead Eagles's last 7 league matches had two or more goals.
See the full analysisStarting later (8)
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 86%
Average price 1.08
INTInterWDWLWPARParmaWLDLL
Last 5 games
· Italy - Serie A
Each of Parma's last 4 league matches had two or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 88%
Average price 1.05
RLERB LeipzigLWLLWEFREintracht FrankfurtWDWL
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 83%
Average price 1.12
MANManchester UnitedDLLWDTOTTottenhamLLDD
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 85%
Average price 1.10
FEYFeyenoordWWLWDAALAZ AlkmaarWLDW
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 74%
Average price 1.25
MARMaritimoDLLLDPORFC PortoWWWL
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 86%
Average price 1.09
FSIFortuna SittardWWLWWTWETwenteWWWW
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 88%
Average price 1.06
AJAAjaxDWWLWNNINEC NijmegenDLLD
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 88%
Average price 1.05
RMAReal MadridLWWWLVILVillarrealWWLL
D
· Germany - Bundesliga
Each of RB Leipzig's last 4 league matches had two or more goals.
L
· England - Premier League
4 of Manchester United's last 5 league matches had two or more goals.
W
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
Each of Feyenoord's last 6 league matches had three or more goals.
W
· Portugal - Primeira Liga
Each of FC Porto's last 7 league matches had two or more goals.
D
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
Each of Fortuna Sittard's last 3 home matches had two or more goals.
L
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
Each of Ajax's last 7 league matches had two or more goals.
L
· Spain - La Liga
Each of Villarreal's last 4 league matches had three or more goals.