Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
78%win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 71%
Average price 1.32
GenoaFiorentina
Loading picks…
Yesterday: 4 of 4 picks won. See every pick
Today, Saturday 10 October
Times shown in your time (EDT)
Showing the top 20 of 26 picks, in kick-off order. 6 more are under Show all.Updating…
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
78%win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 71%
Average price 1.32
· France - Ligue 1
No pick for this match: no market passed our rules.
Chances of each result: Monaco win 39%, Draw 27%, Toulouse win 34%.
Monaco host Toulouse in the Ligue 1, France.
Our model gives Monaco a 39% chance of winning, a draw 27% and Toulouse 34%.
The model expects Monaco to score 1.3 goals and Toulouse 1.3.
Monaco have won 4 of their last 5 league matches; Toulouse have won 1 of 5.
Chances and prices are from our nightly scan before the match. Nothing after that is used.
Our model's chance for each market, with the bookmakers' average price.
Last 5 games
· Italy - Serie A
Each of Fiorentina's last 5 league matches had two or more goals.
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
87%win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 93%
Average price 1.03
Last 5 games
· Germany - Bundesliga
Each of FC Augsburg's last 4 league matches had three or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
85%win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 85%
Average price 1.10
Last 5 games
· Germany - Bundesliga
Each of 1899 Hoffenheim's last 4 league matches had three or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
84%win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 87%
Average price 1.07
Last 5 games
· Germany - Bundesliga
3 of VfB Stuttgart's last 4 league matches had two or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
83%win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 82%
Average price 1.13
Last 5 games
· Germany - Bundesliga
Each of Union Berlin's last 4 league matches had three or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
81%win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 84%
Average price 1.11
Last 5 games
· Germany - Bundesliga
Each of Bayer Leverkusen's last 4 league matches had two or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
80%win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 83%
Average price 1.13
Last 5 games
· England - Premier League
Each of Chelsea's last 5 league matches had three or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
80%win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 79%
Average price 1.18
Last 5 games
· England - Championship
Each of Middlesbrough's last 4 home matches had three or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
77%win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 75%
Average price 1.25
Last 5 games
· England - Championship
Each of Millwall's last 8 league matches had two or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
77%win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 86%
Average price 1.08
Last 5 games
· Scotland - Premiership
The model expects Rangers to score 1.9 goals and Kilmarnock 0.9.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
77%win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 75%
Average price 1.25
Last 5 games
· Spain - La Liga
Each of Atletico Madrid's last 7 league matches had two or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
85%win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 85%
Average price 1.09
Last 5 games
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
Each of GO Ahead Eagles's last 7 league matches had two or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
81%win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 86%
Average price 1.08
Last 5 games
· Italy - Serie A
Each of Parma's last 4 league matches had two or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
89%win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 88%
Average price 1.05
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
78%win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 83%
Average price 1.12
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
85%win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 85%
Average price 1.10
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
78%win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 74%
Average price 1.25
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
85%win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 86%
Average price 1.09
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
86%win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 88%
Average price 1.06
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
83%win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 88%
Average price 1.05
Context onlyFacts that explain the pick. The model doesn't read them.
Worked out from the stored data, never estimated.
Context onlyTable position isn't in the model.
Where the teams sit in the Ligue 1, before kick-off.
Monaco sit 1st with 13 points; Toulouse sit 14th with 5. A gap of 7 in goal difference, in favour of Monaco.
Stored before 7 October 2026: wins, draws, losses and goals were not kept.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Monaco | 5 | – | – | – | – | – | +5 | 13 |
| 2 | Lyon | 6 | – | – | – | – | – | +7 | 11 |
| 13 | Lorient | 5 | – | – | – | – | – | -1 | 5 |
| 14 | Toulouse | 5 | – | – | – | – | – | -2 | 5 |
| 15 | Nice | 5 | – | – | – | – | – | -3 | 5 |
Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.
Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.
Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
In the modelThe model rates each team's home and away records separately.
The last 5 and 10 matches, then Monaco at home and Toulouse away only: a home fixture is read from home matches where there are enough.
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
| Sample | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | CS | FTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (5) | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 3 | +5 | 13 | 2.60 | 2 | 0 |
| Last 10 (5) | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 3 | +5 | 13 | 2.60 | 2 | 0 |
| Home, last 5 (2) | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | +3 | 6 | 3.00 | 1 | 0 |
| Home, last 10 (2) | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | +3 | 6 | 3.00 | 1 | 0 |
| Sample | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | CS | FTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (5) | 5 | 1 |
Monaco at home: Insufficient historical data. Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
Toulouse away: Insufficient historical data. Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
Context onlyShown for context. The model's own ratings come from goals scored and conceded this season and last.
| Measure | Monaco | Toulouse |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 1st | 14th |
| Points per game | 2.60 | 1.00 |
| Attack: goals per game (last 5 and 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| Defence: conceded per game (last 5 and 5) | 0.60 | 1.80 |
| Clean sheets | 2 | 0 |
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
In the modelMissing players move the model's expected goals, chiefly a missing top scorer.
Players out or doubtful, as reported the night before.
Last 5 games
· Germany - Bundesliga
Each of RB Leipzig's last 4 league matches had two or more goals.
Last 5 games
· England - Premier League
4 of Manchester United's last 5 league matches had two or more goals.
Last 5 games
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
Each of Feyenoord's last 6 league matches had three or more goals.
Last 5 games
· Portugal - Primeira Liga
Each of FC Porto's last 7 league matches had two or more goals.
Last 5 games
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
Each of Fortuna Sittard's last 3 home matches had two or more goals.
Last 5 games
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
Each of Ajax's last 7 league matches had two or more goals.
Last 5 games
· Spain - La Liga
Each of Villarreal's last 4 league matches had three or more goals.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Monaco | 5 | – | – | – | – | – | +5 | 13 |
| 2 | Lyon | 6 | – | – | – | – | – | +7 | 11 |
| 3 | Paris FC | 5 | – | – | – | – | – | +5 | 11 |
| 4 | Lille | 5 | – | – | – | – | – | +4 | 10 |
| 5 | Rennes | 5 | – | – | – | – | – | -1 | 10 |
| 6 | Paris Saint Germain | 5 | – | – | – | – | – | +1 | 8 |
| 7 | Lens | 6 | – | – | – | – | – | +1 | 7 |
| 8 | Angers | 5 | – | – | – | – | – | +1 | 7 |
| 9 | Strasbourg | 5 | – | – | – | – | – | 0 | 7 |
| 10 | Le Mans | 5 | – | – | – | – | – | 0 | 6 |
| 11 | Auxerre | 5 | – | – | – | – | – | -5 | 6 |
| 12 | Stade Brestois 29 | 5 | – | – | – | – | – | -1 | 5 |
| 13 | Lorient | 5 | – | – | – | – | – | -1 | 5 |
| 14 | Toulouse | 5 | – | – | – | – | – | -2 | 5 |
| 15 | Nice | 5 | – | – | – | – | – | -3 | 5 |
| 16 | Estac Troyes | 5 | – | – | – | – | – | -7 | 4 |
| 17 | Marseille | 5 | – | – | – | – | – | -1 | 3 |
| 18 | Le Havre | 5 | – | – | – | – | – | -3 | 2 |
| 2 |
| 2 |
| 7 |
| 9 |
| -2 |
| 5 |
| 1.00 |
| 0 |
| 2 |
| Last 10 (5) | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 9 | -2 | 5 | 1.00 | 0 | 2 |
|---|
| Away, last 5 (2) | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 1.00 | 0 | 0 |
|---|
| Away, last 10 (2) | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 1.00 | 0 | 0 |
|---|