Know the chances before you stake.
18+ only. Chances are estimates, not guarantees.
Help and legal
We never sell tips, never ask for payment, and never contact you on WhatsApp or Telegram. Anyone who does is not us.
Data provided by API-SPORTS.
Made with
Paris Saint Germain vs Le Mans prediction, Saturday 10 October: chances and analysis
Back to today's picks
Sat 14:45 EDT · France - Ligue 1
Paris Saint Germain v Le Mans Home v Away Home v Away No pick for this match: no market passed our rules.
Our model's chances Chances of each result: Paris Saint Germain win 70%, Draw 18%, Le Mans win 12%.
Paris Saint Germain host Le Mans in the Ligue 1, France.
Our model gives Paris Saint Germain a 70% chance of winning, a draw 18% and Le Mans 12%.
The model expects Paris Saint Germain to score 2.3 goals and Le Mans 0.7.
Paris Saint Germain have won 2 of their last 5 league matches; Le Mans have won 1 of 5.
Top factors Paris Saint Germain sit 6th with 8 points; Le Mans sit 10th with 6 points. Paris Saint Germain have taken 10 points from their last 5 matches; Le Mans 5 from 5. At home, Paris Saint Germain have taken 8 points from their last 5; away, Le Mans have taken 5 from their last 5. Chances and prices are from our nightly scan before the match. Form, table, head to head and absences as of Sat 10 Oct, 01:24 BST. Nothing after that is used.
Key numbers, the table, form, head to head and more. Our model's chance for each market, with the bookmakers' average price.
Paris Saint Germain win 70% · price 1.09
Le Mans win 12% · price 22.97
Over 1.5 goals 79% · price 1.04
Over 2.5 goals 57% · price 1.22
Both teams score 50% · price 2.03
Expected goals (our model) Paris Saint Germain 2.3, Le Mans 0.7 Context only Facts that explain the pick. The model doesn't read them.
Worked out from the stored data, never estimated.
Paris Saint Germain sit 6th with 8 points; Le Mans sit 10th with 6 points. Paris Saint Germain have taken 10 points from their last 5 matches; Le Mans 5 from 5. At home, Paris Saint Germain have taken 8 points from their last 5; away, Le Mans have taken 5 from their last 5. Head-to-head context: in their last 3 meetings Paris Saint Germain won 3, Le Mans won 0 and 0 were drawn. Paris Saint Germain have had 20 days since their last match; Le Mans 8. Paris Saint Germain have 4 players out or doubtful; Le Mans have 4. Context only Table position isn't in the model.
Where the teams sit in the Ligue 1, before kick-off.
Paris Saint Germain sit 6th with 8 points; Le Mans sit 10th with 6. A gap of 1 in goal difference, in favour of Paris Saint Germain.
5th Rennes 10 points from 5 games · goal difference -1 6th Paris Saint Germain 8 points from 5 games · goal difference +1 7th Lens 7 points from 6 games · goal difference +1 9th Strasbourg 7 points from 5 games · goal difference 0 10th Le Mans 6 points from 5 games · goal difference 0 11th Auxerre 6 points from 5 games · goal difference -5 # Team P W D L GF GA GD Pts 5 Rennes 5 3 1 1 8 9 -1 10 6 Paris Saint Germain 5 2 2 1 8 7 +1 8 7 Lens 6 2 1 3 11 10 +1 7 9 Strasbourg 5 2 1 2 10 10 0 7 10 Le Mans 5 1 3 1 9 9 0 6 11 Auxerre 5 2 0 3 7 12 -5 6
Show full table Show less 1st Monaco 13 points from 5 games · goal difference +5 2nd Lyon 11 points from 6 games · goal difference +7 3rd Paris FC 11 points from 5 games · goal difference +5 4th Lille 10 points from 5 games · goal difference +4 5th Rennes 10 points from 5 games · goal difference -1 6th Paris Saint Germain 8 points from 5 games · goal difference +1 7th Lens 7 points from 6 games · goal difference +1 8th Angers 7 points from 5 games · goal difference +1 9th Strasbourg 7 points from 5 games · goal difference 0 10th Le Mans 6 points from 5 games · goal difference 0 11th Auxerre 6 points from 5 games · goal difference -5 Partly in the model The model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.
Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.
W Won at Marseille 20 Sept 2026 · Ligue 1 · Away 2–1
W Won at Stade Brestois 29 13 Sept 2026 · Ligue 1 · Away 1–0
W Won v Slovan Bratislava 9 Sept 2026 · UEFA Champions League · Home 6–1
L Lost v Monaco 4 Sept 2026 · Ligue 1 · Home 1–2
D Drew at Lille 28 Aug 2026 · Ligue 1 · Away 2–2
Show last 10 matches Showing 10 D Drew at Rennes 23 Aug 2026 · Ligue 1 · Away 2–2
L Lost at Lens 16 Aug 2026 · Trophée des Champions · Away 0–1
W Won v Aston Villa 12 Aug 2026 · UEFA Super Cup · Home 2–1
D Drew v Manchester United 8 Aug 2026 · Friendlies Clubs · Home 1–1
L Lost at Mallorca 5 Aug 2026 · Friendlies Clubs · Away 0–3
Partly in the model The model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.
Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.
L Lost at Guingamp 2 Oct 2026 · Friendlies Clubs · Away 1–2
W Won v Lorient 19 Sept 2026 · Ligue 1 · Home 2–1
D Drew v Lens 13 Sept 2026 · Ligue 1 · Home 2–2
D Drew at Nice 5 Sept 2026 · Ligue 1 · Away 1–1
L Lost at Rennes 30 Aug 2026 · Ligue 1 · Away 2–3
Show last 10 matches Showing 10 D Drew v Stade Brestois 29 22 Aug 2026 · Ligue 1 · Home 2–2
L Lost v Le Havre 15 Aug 2026 · Friendlies Clubs · Home 0–1
D Drew at Saumur 8 Aug 2026 · Friendlies Clubs · Away 0–0
D Drew v UNFP 8 Aug 2026 · Friendlies Clubs · Home 1–1
W Won at Angers 1 Aug 2026 · Friendlies Clubs · Away 3–2
Partly in the model The model uses league meetings from this season and last, moving expected goals by at most 4%. Older and cup meetings are context.
How these two have done against each other. Recent meetings count for more than old ones.
Meetings 3
Paris Saint Germain wins 3
Draws 0
Le Mans wins 0 Record shown: December 2019 to February 2025.
4 Feb 2025 · Coupe de France Le Mans 0–2 Paris Saint Germain
14 Jul 2021 · Friendlies Clubs Paris Saint Germain 4–0 Le Mans
18 Dec 2019 · Coupe de la Ligue Le Mans 1–4 Paris Saint Germain
In the model The model rates each team's home and away records separately.
The last 5 and 10 matches, then Paris Saint Germain at home and Le Mans away only: a home fixture is read from home matches where there are enough.
Paris Saint Germain Last 5 (5) 3 won, 1 drawn, 1 lost · 12 scored, 6 conceded · 2.00 points a game · 1 clean sheet · failed to score in 0 Last 10 (10) 4 won, 3 drawn, 3 lost · 17 scored, 14 conceded · 1.50 points a game · 1 clean sheet · failed to score in 2 Home, last 5 (5) 2 won, 2 drawn, 1 lost · 11 scored, 6 conceded · 1.60 points a game · 0 clean sheets · failed to score in 0 Home, last 10 (10) 5 won, 3 drawn, 2 lost · 23 scored, 14 conceded · 1.80 points a game · 2 clean sheets · failed to score in 0 Paris Saint Germain Sample P W D L GF GA GD Pts PPG CS FTS Last 5 (5) 5 3 1 1 12 6 +6 10 2.00 1 0 Last 10 (10) 10 4 3 3 17 14 +3 15 1.50 1 2 Home, last 5 (5) 5 2 2 1 11 6 +5 8 1.60 0 0 Home, last 10 (10) 10 5 3 2 23 14 +9 18 1.80 2 0
Le Mans Last 5 (5) 1 won, 2 drawn, 2 lost · 8 scored, 9 conceded · 1.00 points a game · 0 clean sheets · failed to score in 0 Last 10 (10) 2 won, 5 drawn, 3 lost · 14 scored, 15 conceded · 1.10 points a game · 1 clean sheet · failed to score in 2 Away, last 5 (5) 1 won, 2 drawn, 2 lost · 7 scored, 8 conceded · 1.00 points a game · 1 clean sheet · failed to score in 1 Away, last 10 (9) 3 won, 4 drawn, 2 lost · 14 scored, 12 conceded · 1.44 points a game · 3 clean sheets · failed to score in 2 Le Mans Sample P W D L GF GA GD Pts PPG CS FTS Last 5 (5) 5 1
Context only Shown for context. The model's own ratings come from goals scored and conceded this season and last.
Measure Paris Saint Germain Le Mans League position 6th 10th Points per game 1.60 1.20 Attack: goals per game (last 10 and 10) 1.70 1.40 Defence: conceded per game (last 10 and 10) 1.40 1.50 Clean sheets 1 1
Context only Rest and fixture congestion aren't in the model.
Paris Saint Germain: 20 days since their last match (20 Sept 2026). Le Mans: 8 days since their last match (2 Oct 2026). In the model Missing players move the model's expected goals, chiefly a missing top scorer.
Players out or doubtful, as reported the night before.
Paris Saint Germain O. Dembele · out, rest A. Longoni · out, injury S. Mayulu · out, groin injury N. Mendes · out, rest Le Mans A. Bourabaa · out, ankle injury D. Sidibe · out, yellow cards L. Buades · doubtful, knock E. Colas · doubtful, injury Yesterday: 4 of 4 picks won. See every pick
Today's picks Today, Saturday 10 October
Times shown in your time (EDT)
12th Stade Brestois 29 5 points from 5 games · goal difference -1
13th Lorient 5 points from 5 games · goal difference -1
14th Toulouse 5 points from 5 games · goal difference -2
15th Nice 5 points from 5 games · goal difference -3
16th Estac Troyes 4 points from 5 games · goal difference -7
17th Marseille 3 points from 5 games · goal difference -1
18th Le Havre 2 points from 5 games · goal difference -3 # Team P W D L GF GA GD Pts 1 Monaco 5 4 1 0 8 3 +5 13 2 Lyon 6 3 2 1 11 4 +7 11 3 Paris FC 5 3 2 0 8 3 +5 11 4 Lille 5 3 1 1 8 4 +4 10 5 Rennes 5 3 1 1 8 9 -1 10 6 Paris Saint Germain 5 2 2 1 8 7 +1 8 7 Lens 6 2 1 3 11 10 +1 7 8 Angers 5 2 1 2 6 5 +1 7 9 Strasbourg 5 2 1 2 10 10 0 7 10 Le Mans 5 1 3 1 9 9 0 6 11 Auxerre 5 2 0 3 7 12 -5 6 12 Stade Brestois 29 5 1 2 2 7 8 -1 5 13 Lorient 5 1 2 2 5 6 -1 5 14 Toulouse 5 1 2 2 7 9 -2 5 15 Nice 5 1 2 2 3 6 -3 5 16 Estac Troyes 5 1 1 3 4 11 -7 4 17 Marseille 5 1 0 4 7 8 -1 3 18 Le Havre 5 0 2 3 4 7 -3 2
Show last 20 matches Showing 20 D Drew v Arsenal 30 May 2026 · UEFA Champions League · Home 1–1
L Lost at Paris FC 17 May 2026 · Ligue 1 · Away 1–2
W Won at Lens 13 May 2026 · Ligue 1 · Away 2–0
W Won v Stade Brestois 29 10 May 2026 · Ligue 1 · Home 1–0
D Drew at Bayern München 6 May 2026 · UEFA Champions League · Away 1–1
D Drew v Lorient 2 May 2026 · Ligue 1 · Home 2–2
W Won v Bayern München 28 Apr 2026 · UEFA Champions League · Home 5–4
W Won at Angers 25 Apr 2026 · Ligue 1 · Away 3–0
W Won v Nantes 22 Apr 2026 · Ligue 1 · Home 3–0
L Lost v Lyon 19 Apr 2026 · Ligue 1 · Home 1–2
Show last 20 matches Showing 20 W Won v Nantes 25 Jul 2026 · Friendlies Clubs · Home 1–0
W Won v Versailles 22 Jul 2026 · Friendlies Clubs · Home 3–1
L Lost v La Roche VF 18 Jul 2026 · Friendlies Clubs · Home 2–3
W Won at Bastia 9 May 2026 · Ligue 2 · Away 2–0
D Drew v Reims 2 May 2026 · Ligue 2 · Home 1–1
D Drew at Grenoble 25 Apr 2026 · Ligue 2 · Away 1–1
W Won v Clermont Foot 17 Apr 2026 · Ligue 2 · Home 1–0
D Drew at Boulogne 11 Apr 2026 · Ligue 2 · Away 0–0
W Won v PAU 6 Apr 2026 · Ligue 2 · Home 4–0
W Won at Amiens 20 Mar 2026 · Ligue 2 · Away 4–3
Last 10 (10) 10 2 5 3 14 15 -1 11 1.10 1 2
Away, last 5 (5) 5 1 2 2 7 8 -1 5 1.00 1 1
Away, last 10 (9) 9 3 4 2 14 12 +2 13 1.44 3 2
Showing the top 20 of 26 picks, in kick-off order. 6 more are under Show all. Updating…
No pick is a sure thing. Football is unpredictable, and no prediction is 100% certain. KickChance predictions are estimates based on available data, not guarantees of an outcome.
Starting in 3 to 6 hours (12) Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 71%
Average price 1.32
GEN Genoa L L W D L FIO Fiorentina D W W L L
Last 5 games
09:00 EDT · Italy - Serie A
Each of Fiorentina's last 5 league matches had two or more goals.
See the full analysis Add to slip
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 93%
Average price 1.03
AUG FC Augsburg D L D W W BMU Bayern München W W W D
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 85%
Average price 1.10
HOF 1899 Hoffenheim L L W L L HAM Hamburger SV W W L L
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 87%
Average price 1.07
PAD SC Paderborn 07 W W L L D VST VfB Stuttgart W W L L
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 82%
Average price 1.13
UBE Union Berlin W L L L D ELV SV Elversberg L D L W
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 84%
Average price 1.11
FMA FSV Mainz 05 W W L W D BLE Bayer Leverkusen W W D W
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 83%
Average price 1.13
CHE Chelsea L D W L W BOU Bournemouth L W D W
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 79%
Average price 1.18
MID Middlesbrough D D W L W WOL Wolves W L W D
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 75%
Average price 1.25
PRE Preston D L L W L MIL Millwall D D L L
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 86%
Average price 1.08
RAN Rangers W W W W W KIL Kilmarnock D W D D
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 75%
Average price 1.25
ALA Alaves D L L W W AMA Atletico Madrid W W W L
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 85%
Average price 1.09
GAE GO Ahead Eagles D D D L W SRO Sparta Rotterdam L L D L
Starting later (8) Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 86%
Average price 1.08
INT Inter W D W L W PAR Parma W L D
Show all 6 picks
W
09:30 EDT · Germany - Bundesliga
Each of FC Augsburg's last 4 league matches had three or more goals.
L
09:30 EDT · Germany - Bundesliga
Each of 1899 Hoffenheim's last 4 league matches had three or more goals.
W
09:30 EDT · Germany - Bundesliga
3 of VfB Stuttgart's last 4 league matches had two or more goals.
W
09:30 EDT · Germany - Bundesliga
Each of Union Berlin's last 4 league matches had three or more goals.
L
09:30 EDT · Germany - Bundesliga
Each of Bayer Leverkusen's last 4 league matches had two or more goals.
D
10:00 EDT · England - Premier League
Each of Chelsea's last 5 league matches had three or more goals.
L
10:00 EDT · England - Championship
Each of Middlesbrough's last 4 home matches had three or more goals.
W
10:00 EDT · England - Championship
Each of Millwall's last 8 league matches had two or more goals.
L
10:00 EDT · Scotland - Premiership
The model expects Rangers to score 1.9 goals and Kilmarnock 0.9.
L
10:15 EDT · Spain - La Liga
Each of Atletico Madrid's last 7 league matches had two or more goals.
D
10:30 EDT · Netherlands - Eredivisie
Each of GO Ahead Eagles's last 7 league matches had two or more goals.
L
L
12:00 EDT · Italy - Serie A
Each of Parma's last 4 league matches had two or more goals.
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 88%
Average price 1.05
RLE RB Leipzig L W L L W EFR Eintracht Frankfurt W D W L D
Last 5 games
12:30 EDT · Germany - Bundesliga
Each of RB Leipzig's last 4 league matches had two or more goals.
See the full analysis Add to slip
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 83%
Average price 1.12
MAN Manchester United D L L W D TOT Tottenham L L D D L
Last 5 games
12:30 EDT · England - Premier League
4 of Manchester United's last 5 league matches had two or more goals.
See the full analysis Add to slip
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 85%
Average price 1.10
FEY Feyenoord W W L W D AAL AZ Alkmaar W L D W W
Last 5 games
12:45 EDT · Netherlands - Eredivisie
Each of Feyenoord's last 6 league matches had three or more goals.
See the full analysis Add to slip
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 74%
Average price 1.25
MAR Maritimo D L L L D POR FC Porto W W W L W
Last 5 games
13:00 EDT · Portugal - Primeira Liga
Each of FC Porto's last 7 league matches had two or more goals.
See the full analysis Add to slip
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 86%
Average price 1.09
FSI Fortuna Sittard W W L W W TWE Twente W W W W D
Last 5 games
14:00 EDT · Netherlands - Eredivisie
Each of Fortuna Sittard's last 3 home matches had two or more goals.
See the full analysis Add to slip
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 88%
Average price 1.06
AJA Ajax D W W L W NNI NEC Nijmegen D L L D L
Last 5 games
15:00 EDT · Netherlands - Eredivisie
Each of Ajax's last 7 league matches had two or more goals.
See the full analysis Add to slip
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 88%
Average price 1.05
RMA Real Madrid L W W W L VIL Villarreal W W L L L
Last 5 games
15:00 EDT · Spain - La Liga
Each of Villarreal's last 4 league matches had three or more goals.
See the full analysis Add to slip