Port Vale vs Grimsby prediction, Saturday 10 October: chances and analysisBack to today's picks
· England - League Two
Port Vale v GrimsbyHomevAwayHomevAway
No pick for this match: no market passed our rules.
Our model's chances
Chances of each result: Port Vale win 48%, Draw 27%, Grimsby win 25%.
Port Vale host Grimsby in the League Two, England.
Our model gives Port Vale a 48% chance of winning, a draw 27% and Grimsby 25%.
The model expects Port Vale to score 1.5 goals and Grimsby 1.0.
Port Vale have won 1 of their last 6 league matches; Grimsby have won 2 of 6.
Top factors
- Port Vale sit 23rd with 5 points; Grimsby sit 9th with 13 points.
- Port Vale have taken 4 points from their last 5 matches; Grimsby 7 from 5.
- At home, Port Vale have taken 5 points from their last 3; away, Grimsby have taken 2 from their last 3.
Chances and prices are from our nightly scan before the match. Nothing after that is used.
Key numbers, the table, form, head to head and more.
Our model's chance for each market, with the bookmakers' average price.
- Port Vale win
- 48% · price 2.53
Grimsby win25% · price 2.65 Over 1.5 goals72% · price 1.29 Over 2.5 goals48% · price 1.93 Both teams score50% · price 1.72 Expected goals (our model)Port Vale 1.5, Grimsby 1.0 Context onlyTable position isn't in the model.
Where the teams sit in the League Two, before kick-off.
Port Vale sit 23rd with 5 points; Grimsby sit 9th with 13. A gap of 9 in goal difference, in favour of Grimsby; Port Vale have played 2 fewer.
Stored before 7 October 2026: wins, draws, losses and goals were not kept.
- 8th Chesterfield14 points from 9 games · goal difference +3
- 9th Grimsby13 points from 9 games · goal difference +3
- 10th Gillingham13 points from 9 games · goal difference +2
- 22nd Northampton6 points from 7 games · goal difference -3
- 23rd Port Vale5 points from 7 games · goal difference -6
- 24th Crawley Town4 points from 7 games · goal difference -7
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|
| 8 | Chesterfield | 9 | – | – | – | – | – | +3 | 14 |
| 9 | Grimsby | 9 | – | – | – | – | – | +3 | 13 |
| 10 | Gillingham | 9 | – | – | – | – | – | +2 | 13 |
| 22 | Northampton | 7 | – | – | – | – | – | -3 | 6 |
| 23 | Port Vale | 7 | – | – | – | – | – | -6 | 5 |
| 24 | Crawley Town | 7 | – | – | – | – | – | -7 | 4 |
Show full tableShow less
- 1st Salford City16 points from 9 games · goal difference +3
- 2nd Barnet15 points from 7 games · goal difference +7
- 3rd Crewe15 points from 9 games · goal difference +4
- 4th Cheltenham15 points from 9 games · goal difference +2
- 5th Bristol Rovers15 points from 9 games · goal difference 0
- 6th York14 points from 8 games · goal difference +6
- 7th Walsall14 points from 8 games · goal difference +6
- 8th Chesterfield14 points from 9 games · goal difference +3
- 9th Grimsby13 points from 9 games · goal difference +3
- 10th Gillingham13 points from 9 games · goal difference +2
- 11th Rochdale13 points from 9 games · goal difference -1
Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.
Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
LLostat Walsall19 Sept 2026 · League Two · Away0–2
WWonv Exeter City12 Sept 2026 · League Two · Home1–0
LLostat Salford City5 Sept 2026 · League Two · Away0–1
LLostat Swindon Town1 Sept 2026 · League Two · Away1–3
DDrewv Crewe29 Aug 2026 · League Two · Home0–0
Show last 6 matchesShowing 6
DDrewv Tranmere22 Aug 2026 · League Two · Home1–1
Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.
Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
LLostv Shrewsbury3 Oct 2026 · League Two · Home1–2
LLostat Newport County26 Sept 2026 · League Two · Away1–2
WWonv Crawley Town19 Sept 2026 · League Two · Home2–0
WWonv Bristol Rovers12 Sept 2026 · League Two · Home2–0
DDrewat Cheltenham5 Sept 2026 · League Two · Away2–2
Show last 6 matchesShowing 6
DDrewat Accrington ST1 Sept 2026 · League Two · Away2–2
In the modelThe model rates each team's home and away records separately.
The last 5 and 10 matches, then Port Vale at home and Grimsby away only: a home fixture is read from home matches where there are enough.
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
Port Vale
- Last 5 (5)1 won, 1 drawn, 3 lost · 2 scored, 6 conceded · 0.80 points a game · 2 clean sheets · failed to score in 3
- Last 10 (6)1 won, 2 drawn, 3 lost · 3 scored, 7 conceded · 0.83 points a game · 2 clean sheets · failed to score in 3
- Home, last 5 (3)1 won, 2 drawn, 0 lost · 2 scored, 1 conceded · 1.67 points a game · 2 clean sheets · failed to score in 1
- Home, last 10 (3)1 won, 2 drawn, 0 lost · 2 scored, 1 conceded · 1.67 points a game · 2 clean sheets · failed to score in 1
Port Vale| Sample | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | CS | FTS |
|---|
| Last 5 (5) | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 6 | -4 | 4 | 0.80 | 2 | 3 |
|---|
| Last 10 (6) | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 5 | 0.83 | 2 | 3 |
|---|
| Home, last 5 (3) | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 5 | 1.67 | 2 | 1 |
|---|
| Home, last 10 (3) | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 5 | 1.67 | 2 | 1 |
|---|
Grimsby
- Last 5 (5)2 won, 1 drawn, 2 lost · 8 scored, 6 conceded · 1.40 points a game · 2 clean sheets · failed to score in 0
- Last 10 (6)2 won, 2 drawn, 2 lost · 10 scored, 8 conceded · 1.33 points a game · 2 clean sheets · failed to score in 0
- Away, last 5 (3)0 won, 2 drawn, 1 lost · 5 scored, 6 conceded · 0.67 points a game · 0 clean sheets · failed to score in 0
- Away, last 10 (3)0 won, 2 drawn, 1 lost · 5 scored, 6 conceded · 0.67 points a game · 0 clean sheets · failed to score in 0
Grimsby| Sample | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | CS | FTS |
|---|
| Last 5 (5) | 5 | 2 |
|---|
Port Vale at home: Insufficient historical data. Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
Grimsby away: Insufficient historical data. Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
Context onlyShown for context. The model's own ratings come from goals scored and conceded this season and last.
| Measure | Port Vale | Grimsby |
|---|
| League position | 23rd | 9th |
|---|
| Points per game | 0.71 | 1.44 |
|---|
| Attack: goals per game (last 6 and 6) | 0.50 | 1.67 |
|---|
| Defence: conceded per game (last 6 and 6) | 1.17 | 1.33 |
|---|
| Clean sheets | 2 | 2 |
|---|
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
In the modelMissing players move the model's expected goals, chiefly a missing top scorer.
Players out or doubtful, as reported the night before.
Yesterday: 4 of 4 picks won. See every pick
Today's picks
Today, Saturday 10 October
Times shown in your time (EDT)
Showing the top 20 of 26 picks, in kick-off order. 6 more are under Show all.Updating…
Starting in 3 to 6 hours (12)
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 71%
Average price 1.32
GENGenoaLLWDLFIOFiorentinaDWW
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|
| 1 | Salford City | 9 | – | – | – | – | – | +3 | 16 |
| 2 | Barnet | 7 | – | – | – | – | – | +7 | 15 |
| 3 | Crewe | 9 | – | – | – | – | – | +4 | 15 |
| 4 | Cheltenham | 9 | – | – | – | – | – | +2 | 15 |
| 5 | Bristol Rovers | 9 | – | – | – | – | – | 0 | 15 |
| 6 | York | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | +6 | 14 |
| 7 | Walsall | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | +6 | 14 |
| 8 | Chesterfield | 9 | – | – | – | – | – | +3 | 14 |
| 9 | Grimsby | 9 | – | – | – | – | – | +3 | 13 |
| 10 | Gillingham | 9 | – | – | – | – | – | +2 | 13 |
| 11 | Rochdale | 9 | – | – | – | – | – | -1 | 13 |
| 12 | Tranmere | 9 | – | – | – | – | – | 0 | 11 |
| 13 | Swindon Town | 9 | – | – | – | – | – | -4 | 11 |
| 14 | Shrewsbury | 9 | – | – | – | – | – | -5 | 11 |
| 15 | Newport County | 9 | – | – | – | – | – | 0 | 10 |
| 16 | Accrington ST | 9 | – | – | – | – | – | -1 | 10 |
| 17 | Rotherham | 9 | – | – | – | – | – | -1 | 10 |
| 18 | Fleetwood Town | 9 | – | – | – | – | – | -1 | 10 |
| 19 | Colchester | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | -2 | 10 |
| 20 | Exeter City | 9 | – | – | – | – | – | -1 | 9 |
| 21 | Oldham | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | -4 | 7 |
| 22 | Northampton | 7 | – | – | – | – | – | -3 | 6 |
| 23 | Port Vale | 7 | – | – | – | – | – | -6 | 5 |
| 24 | Crawley Town | 7 | – | – | – | – | – | -7 | 4 |
| Last 10 (6) | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 8 | +2 | 8 | 1.33 | 2 | 0 |
|---|
| Away, last 5 (3) | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 6 | -1 | 2 | 0.67 | 0 | 0 |
|---|
| Away, last 10 (3) | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 6 | -1 | 2 | 0.67 | 0 | 0 |
|---|
L
L
· Italy - Serie A
Each of Fiorentina's last 5 league matches had two or more goals.
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 93%
Average price 1.03
AUGFC AugsburgDLDWWBMUBayern MünchenWWWDW
Last 5 games
· Germany - Bundesliga
Each of FC Augsburg's last 4 league matches had three or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 85%
Average price 1.10
HOF1899 HoffenheimLLWLLHAMHamburger SVWWLLL
Last 5 games
· Germany - Bundesliga
Each of 1899 Hoffenheim's last 4 league matches had three or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 87%
Average price 1.07
PADSC Paderborn 07WWLLDVSTVfB StuttgartWWLLW
Last 5 games
· Germany - Bundesliga
3 of VfB Stuttgart's last 4 league matches had two or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 82%
Average price 1.13
UBEUnion BerlinWLLLDELVSV ElversbergLDLWW
Last 5 games
· Germany - Bundesliga
Each of Union Berlin's last 4 league matches had three or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 84%
Average price 1.11
FMAFSV Mainz 05WWLWDBLEBayer LeverkusenWWDWL
Last 5 games
· Germany - Bundesliga
Each of Bayer Leverkusen's last 4 league matches had two or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 83%
Average price 1.13
CHEChelseaLDWLWBOUBournemouthLWDWD
Last 5 games
· England - Premier League
Each of Chelsea's last 5 league matches had three or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 79%
Average price 1.18
MIDMiddlesbroughDDWLWWOLWolvesWLWDL
Last 5 games
· England - Championship
Each of Middlesbrough's last 4 home matches had three or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 75%
Average price 1.25
PREPrestonDLLWLMILMillwallDDLLW
Last 5 games
· England - Championship
Each of Millwall's last 8 league matches had two or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 86%
Average price 1.08
RANRangersWWWWWKILKilmarnockDWDDL
Last 5 games
· Scotland - Premiership
The model expects Rangers to score 1.9 goals and Kilmarnock 0.9.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 75%
Average price 1.25
ALAAlavesDLLWWAMAAtletico MadridWWWLL
Last 5 games
· Spain - La Liga
Each of Atletico Madrid's last 7 league matches had two or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 85%
Average price 1.09
GAEGO Ahead EaglesDDDLWSROSparta RotterdamLLDLD
Last 5 games
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
Each of GO Ahead Eagles's last 7 league matches had two or more goals.
See the full analysisStarting later (8)
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 86%
Average price 1.08
INTInterWDWLWPARParmaWLDLL
Last 5 games
· Italy - Serie A
Each of Parma's last 4 league matches had two or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 88%
Average price 1.05
RLERB LeipzigLWLLWEFREintracht FrankfurtWDWL
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 83%
Average price 1.12
MANManchester UnitedDLLWDTOTTottenhamLLDD
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 85%
Average price 1.10
FEYFeyenoordWWLWDAALAZ AlkmaarWLDW
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 74%
Average price 1.25
MARMaritimoDLLLDPORFC PortoWWWL
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 86%
Average price 1.09
FSIFortuna SittardWWLWWTWETwenteWWWW
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 88%
Average price 1.06
AJAAjaxDWWLWNNINEC NijmegenDLLD
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 88%
Average price 1.05
RMAReal MadridLWWWLVILVillarrealWWLL
D
· Germany - Bundesliga
Each of RB Leipzig's last 4 league matches had two or more goals.
L
· England - Premier League
4 of Manchester United's last 5 league matches had two or more goals.
W
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
Each of Feyenoord's last 6 league matches had three or more goals.
W
· Portugal - Primeira Liga
Each of FC Porto's last 7 league matches had two or more goals.
D
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
Each of Fortuna Sittard's last 3 home matches had two or more goals.
L
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
Each of Ajax's last 7 league matches had two or more goals.
L
· Spain - La Liga
Each of Villarreal's last 4 league matches had three or more goals.