Roosendaal vs Zwaluwen prediction, Saturday 10 October: chances and analysisBack to today's picks
· Netherlands - Derde Divisie
Roosendaal v ZwaluwenHomevAwayHomevAway
No pick for this match: no market passed our rules.
Our model's chances
Chances of each result: Roosendaal win 44%, Draw 23%, Zwaluwen win 32%.
Roosendaal host Zwaluwen in the Derde Divisie, Netherlands.
Our model gives Roosendaal a 44% chance of winning, a draw 23% and Zwaluwen 32%.
The model expects Roosendaal to score 1.8 goals and Zwaluwen 1.5.
Roosendaal have won 2 of their last 6 league matches; Zwaluwen have won 4 of 6.
Top factors
- Roosendaal sit 22nd with 9 points; Zwaluwen sit 18th with 13 points.
- Roosendaal have taken 6 points from their last 5 matches; Zwaluwen 12 from 5.
- At home, Roosendaal have taken 6 points from their last 3; away, Zwaluwen have taken 3 from their last 3.
Chances and prices are from our nightly scan before the match. Nothing after that is used.
Key numbers, the table, form, head to head and more.
Our model's chance for each market. No bookmaker prices yet.
Yesterday: 4 of 4 picks won. See every pick
Today's picks
Today, Saturday 10 October
Times shown in your time (EDT)
Expected goals (our model)Roosendaal 1.8, Zwaluwen 1.5 Context onlyTable position isn't in the model.
Where the teams sit in the Derde Divisie, before kick-off.
Roosendaal sit 22nd with 9 points; Zwaluwen sit 18th with 13. They are level on goal difference.
Stored before 7 October 2026: wins, draws, losses and goals were not kept.
- 17th Dongen13 points from 8 games · goal difference +4
- 18th Zwaluwen13 points from 8 games · goal difference -3
- 19th Gemert10 points from 8 games · goal difference -1
- 21st Blauw Geel9 points from 8 games · goal difference 0
- 22nd Roosendaal9 points from 8 games · goal difference -3
- 23rd Poortugaal9 points from 8 games · goal difference -5
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|
| 17 | Dongen | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | +4 | 13 |
| 18 | Zwaluwen | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | -3 | 13 |
| 19 | Gemert | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | -1 | 10 |
| 21 | Blauw Geel | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | 0 | 9 |
| 22 | Roosendaal | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | -3 | 9 |
| 23 | Poortugaal | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | -5 | 9 |
Show full tableShow less
- 1st Rijnvogels20 points from 8 games · goal difference +18
- 2nd Excelsior '3119 points from 8 games · goal difference +16
- 3rd ACV19 points from 8 games · goal difference +13
- 4th Noordwijk19 points from 8 games · goal difference +13
- 5th FC Lisse19 points from 8 games · goal difference +8
- 6th VV Scherpenzeel19 points from 8 games · goal difference +6
- 7th SC Genemuiden18 points from 8 games · goal difference +10
- 8th Excelsior Maassluis17 points from 8 games · goal difference +9
- 9th Harkemase Boys17 points from 8 games · goal difference +4
- 10th TEC16 points from 8 games · goal difference +11
- 11th Sportlust '4615 points from 8 games · goal difference +3
Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.
Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
LLostat TOGB3 Oct 2026 · Derde Divisie · Away3–4
WWonv Vvsb26 Sept 2026 · Derde Divisie · Home3–1
LLostat Excelsior Maassluis19 Sept 2026 · Derde Divisie · Away0–5
LLostv Blauw Geel12 Sept 2026 · Derde Divisie · Home1–3
WWonv Achilles Veen5 Sept 2026 · Derde Divisie · Home3–0
Show last 6 matchesShowing 6
LLostat Noordwijk29 Aug 2026 · Derde Divisie · Away0–1
Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.
Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
WWonv Achilles Veen3 Oct 2026 · Derde Divisie · Home1–0
WWonat Noordwijk26 Sept 2026 · Derde Divisie · Away2–1
WWonv FC Lisse19 Sept 2026 · Derde Divisie · Home1–0
LLostat Groene Ster12 Sept 2026 · Derde Divisie · Away0–1
WWonv UDI '195 Sept 2026 · Derde Divisie · Home1–0
Show last 6 matchesShowing 6
LLostat Poortugaal29 Aug 2026 · Derde Divisie · Away1–3
In the modelThe model rates each team's home and away records separately.
The last 5 and 10 matches, then Roosendaal at home and Zwaluwen away only: a home fixture is read from home matches where there are enough.
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
Roosendaal
- Last 5 (5)2 won, 0 drawn, 3 lost · 10 scored, 13 conceded · 1.20 points a game · 1 clean sheet · failed to score in 1
- Last 10 (6)2 won, 0 drawn, 4 lost · 10 scored, 14 conceded · 1.00 points a game · 1 clean sheet · failed to score in 2
- Home, last 5 (3)2 won, 0 drawn, 1 lost · 7 scored, 4 conceded · 2.00 points a game · 1 clean sheet · failed to score in 0
- Home, last 10 (3)2 won, 0 drawn, 1 lost · 7 scored, 4 conceded · 2.00 points a game · 1 clean sheet · failed to score in 0
Roosendaal| Sample | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | CS | FTS |
|---|
| Last 5 (5) | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 10 | 13 | -3 | 6 | 1.20 | 1 | 1 |
|---|
| Last 10 (6) | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 10 | 14 | -4 | 6 | 1.00 | 1 | 2 |
|---|
| Home, last 5 (3) | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 4 | +3 | 6 | 2.00 | 1 | 0 |
|---|
| Home, last 10 (3) | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 4 | +3 | 6 | 2.00 | 1 | 0 |
|---|
Zwaluwen
- Last 5 (5)4 won, 0 drawn, 1 lost · 5 scored, 2 conceded · 2.40 points a game · 3 clean sheets · failed to score in 1
- Last 10 (6)4 won, 0 drawn, 2 lost · 6 scored, 5 conceded · 2.00 points a game · 3 clean sheets · failed to score in 1
- Away, last 5 (3)1 won, 0 drawn, 2 lost · 3 scored, 5 conceded · 1.00 points a game · 0 clean sheets · failed to score in 1
- Away, last 10 (3)1 won, 0 drawn, 2 lost · 3 scored, 5 conceded · 1.00 points a game · 0 clean sheets · failed to score in 1
Zwaluwen| Sample | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | CS | FTS |
|---|
| Last 5 (5) | 5 | 4 |
|---|
Roosendaal at home: Insufficient historical data. Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
Zwaluwen away: Insufficient historical data. Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
Context onlyShown for context. The model's own ratings come from goals scored and conceded this season and last.
| Measure | Roosendaal | Zwaluwen |
|---|
| League position | 22nd | 18th |
|---|
| Points per game | 1.13 | 1.63 |
|---|
| Attack: goals per game (last 6 and 6) | 1.67 | 1.00 |
|---|
| Defence: conceded per game (last 6 and 6) | 2.33 | 0.83 |
|---|
| Clean sheets | 1 | 3 |
|---|
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
In the modelMissing players move the model's expected goals, chiefly a missing top scorer.
Players out or doubtful, as reported the night before.
Showing the top 20 of 26 picks, in kick-off order. 6 more are under Show all.Updating…
Starting in 3 to 6 hours (12)
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 71%
Average price 1.32
GENGenoaLLWDLFIOFiorentinaDWWLL
Last 5 games
· Italy - Serie A
Each of Fiorentina's last 5 league matches had two or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 93%
Average price 1.03
AUGFC AugsburgDLDWWBMUBayern MünchenWWWD
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 85%
Average price 1.10
HOF1899 HoffenheimLLWLLHAMHamburger SVWWLL
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 87%
Average price 1.07
PADSC Paderborn 07WWLLDVSTVfB StuttgartWWLL
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 82%
Average price 1.13
UBEUnion BerlinWLLLDELVSV ElversbergLDLW
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 84%
Average price 1.11
FMAFSV Mainz 05WWLWDBLEBayer LeverkusenWWDW
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 83%
Average price 1.13
CHEChelseaLDWLWBOUBournemouthLWDW
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 79%
Average price 1.18
MIDMiddlesbroughDDWLWWOLWolvesWLWD
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 75%
Average price 1.25
PREPrestonDLLWLMILMillwallDDLL
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 86%
Average price 1.08
RANRangersWWWWWKILKilmarnockDWDD
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 75%
Average price 1.25
ALAAlavesDLLWWAMAAtletico MadridWWWL
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 85%
Average price 1.09
GAEGO Ahead EaglesDDDLWSROSparta RotterdamLLDL
Starting later (8)
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 86%
Average price 1.08
INTInterWDWLWPARParmaWLD
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|
| 1 | Rijnvogels | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | +18 | 20 |
| 2 | Excelsior '31 | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | +16 | 19 |
| 3 | ACV | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | +13 | 19 |
| 4 | Noordwijk | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | +13 | 19 |
| 5 | FC Lisse | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | +8 | 19 |
| 6 | VV Scherpenzeel | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | +6 | 19 |
| 7 | SC Genemuiden | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | +10 | 18 |
| 8 | Excelsior Maassluis | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | +9 | 17 |
| 9 | Harkemase Boys | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | +4 | 17 |
| 10 | TEC | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | +11 | 16 |
| 11 | Sportlust '46 | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | +3 | 15 |
| 12 | Sparta Nijkerk | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | +6 | 14 |
| 13 | UDI '19 | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | +5 | 14 |
| 14 | Purmersteijn | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | +4 | 14 |
| 15 | GOES | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | -1 | 14 |
| 16 | Hoogeveen | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | +5 | 13 |
| 17 | Dongen | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | +4 | 13 |
| 18 | Zwaluwen | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | -3 | 13 |
| 19 | Gemert | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | -1 | 10 |
| 20 | ADO '20 | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | -3 | 10 |
| 21 | Blauw Geel | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | 0 | 9 |
| 22 | Roosendaal | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | -3 | 9 |
| 23 | Poortugaal | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | -5 | 9 |
| 24 | Hercules | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | -8 | 9 |
| 25 | UNA | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | -1 | 8 |
| 26 | TOGB | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | -5 | 8 |
| 27 | Vvsb | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | -6 | 7 |
| 28 | Groene Ster | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | -8 | 6 |
| 29 | DVS 33 Ermelo | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | -5 | 5 |
| 30 | Dovo | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | -10 | 5 |
| 31 | Staphorst | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | -8 | 3 |
| 32 | Achilles Veen | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | -13 | 3 |
| 33 | Eemdijk | 7 | – | – | – | – | – | -17 | 3 |
| 34 | EVV | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | -11 | 2 |
| 35 | Hollandia | 7 | – | – | – | – | – | -10 | 1 |
| 36 | SVZW | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | -17 | 1 |
| Last 10 (6) | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 5 | +1 | 12 | 2.00 | 3 | 1 |
|---|
| Away, last 5 (3) | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 3 | 1.00 | 0 | 1 |
|---|
| Away, last 10 (3) | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 3 | 1.00 | 0 | 1 |
|---|
W
· Germany - Bundesliga
Each of FC Augsburg's last 4 league matches had three or more goals.
L
· Germany - Bundesliga
Each of 1899 Hoffenheim's last 4 league matches had three or more goals.
W
· Germany - Bundesliga
3 of VfB Stuttgart's last 4 league matches had two or more goals.
W
· Germany - Bundesliga
Each of Union Berlin's last 4 league matches had three or more goals.
L
· Germany - Bundesliga
Each of Bayer Leverkusen's last 4 league matches had two or more goals.
D
· England - Premier League
Each of Chelsea's last 5 league matches had three or more goals.
L
· England - Championship
Each of Middlesbrough's last 4 home matches had three or more goals.
W
· England - Championship
Each of Millwall's last 8 league matches had two or more goals.
L
· Scotland - Premiership
The model expects Rangers to score 1.9 goals and Kilmarnock 0.9.
L
· Spain - La Liga
Each of Atletico Madrid's last 7 league matches had two or more goals.
D
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
Each of GO Ahead Eagles's last 7 league matches had two or more goals.
L
L
· Italy - Serie A
Each of Parma's last 4 league matches had two or more goals.
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 88%
Average price 1.05
RLERB LeipzigLWLLWEFREintracht FrankfurtWDWLD
Last 5 games
· Germany - Bundesliga
Each of RB Leipzig's last 4 league matches had two or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 83%
Average price 1.12
MANManchester UnitedDLLWDTOTTottenhamLLDDL
Last 5 games
· England - Premier League
4 of Manchester United's last 5 league matches had two or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 85%
Average price 1.10
FEYFeyenoordWWLWDAALAZ AlkmaarWLDWW
Last 5 games
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
Each of Feyenoord's last 6 league matches had three or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 74%
Average price 1.25
MARMaritimoDLLLDPORFC PortoWWWLW
Last 5 games
· Portugal - Primeira Liga
Each of FC Porto's last 7 league matches had two or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 86%
Average price 1.09
FSIFortuna SittardWWLWWTWETwenteWWWWD
Last 5 games
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
Each of Fortuna Sittard's last 3 home matches had two or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 88%
Average price 1.06
AJAAjaxDWWLWNNINEC NijmegenDLLDL
Last 5 games
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
Each of Ajax's last 7 league matches had two or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 88%
Average price 1.05
RMAReal MadridLWWWLVILVillarrealWWLLL
Last 5 games
· Spain - La Liga
Each of Villarreal's last 4 league matches had three or more goals.
See the full analysis