Santurtzi vs R. Union B prediction, Saturday 10 October: chances and analysisBack to today's picks
· Spain - Tercera División RFEF - Group 4
Santurtzi v R. Union BHomevAwayHomevAway
No pick for this match: no market passed our rules.
Our model's chances
Chances of each result: Santurtzi win 43%, Draw 27%, R. Union B win 30%.
Santurtzi host R. Union B in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 4, Spain.
Our model gives Santurtzi a 43% chance of winning, a draw 27% and R. Union B 30%.
The model expects Santurtzi to score 1.4 goals and R. Union B 1.1.
Santurtzi have won 1 of their last 5 league matches; R. Union B have won 1 of 5.
Top factors
- Santurtzi sit 17th with 3 points; R. Union B sit 14th with 5 points.
- Santurtzi have taken 3 points from their last 5 matches; R. Union B 5 from 5.
- At home, Santurtzi have taken 3 points from their last 2; away, R. Union B have taken 4 from their last 2.
Chances and prices are from our nightly scan before the match. Nothing after that is used.
Key numbers, the table, form, head to head and more.
Our model's chance for each market. No bookmaker prices yet.
Yesterday: 4 of 4 picks won. See every pick
Today's picks
Today, Saturday 10 October
Times shown in your time (EDT)
Expected goals (our model)Santurtzi 1.4, R. Union B 1.1 Context onlyTable position isn't in the model.
Where the teams sit in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 4, before kick-off.
Santurtzi sit 17th with 3 points; R. Union B sit 14th with 5. A gap of 1 in goal difference, in favour of R. Union B.
Stored before 7 October 2026: wins, draws, losses and goals were not kept.
- 13th Eibar III5 points from 5 games · goal difference 0
- 14th R. Union B5 points from 5 games · goal difference -4
- 15th Sodupe5 points from 5 games · goal difference -5
- 16th Beasain4 points from 5 games · goal difference -3
- 17th Santurtzi3 points from 5 games · goal difference -5
- 18th Amurrio Club1 points from 5 games · goal difference -11
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|
| 13 | Eibar III | 5 | – | – | – | – | – | 0 | 5 |
| 14 | R. Union B | 5 | – | – | – | – | – | -4 | 5 |
| 15 | Sodupe | 5 | – | – | – | – | – | -5 | 5 |
| 16 | Beasain | 5 | – | – | – | – | – | -3 | 4 |
| 17 | Santurtzi | 5 | – | – | – | – | – | -5 | 3 |
| 18 | Amurrio Club | 5 | – | – | – | – | – | -11 | 1 |
Show full tableShow less
- 1st Aurrerá Vitoria13 points from 5 games · goal difference +6
- 2nd Derio11 points from 5 games · goal difference +5
- 3rd Pasaia KE10 points from 5 games · goal difference +1
- 4th Leioa9 points from 5 games · goal difference +6
- 5th Real Sociedad III8 points from 5 games · goal difference +2
- 6th Touring8 points from 5 games · goal difference +2
- 7th Aretxabaleta8 points from 5 games · goal difference +1
- 8th Deportivo Alavés III7 points from 5 games · goal difference +5
- 9th Lagun Onak7 points from 5 games · goal difference -1
- 10th Durango6 points from 5 games · goal difference 0
- 11th Erandio6 points from 5 games · goal difference 0
Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.
Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
LLostat Pasaia KE3 Oct 2026 · Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 · Away0–1
LLostv Lagun Onak27 Sept 2026 · Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 · Home0–1
LLostat Derio20 Sept 2026 · Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 · Away0–2
WWonv Durango13 Sept 2026 · Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 · Home2–1
LLostat Beasain5 Sept 2026 · Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 · Away0–2
Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.
Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
LLostv San Ignacio4 Oct 2026 · Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 · Home0–3
DDrewat Real Sociedad III27 Sept 2026 · Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 · Away3–3
DDrewv Leioa20 Sept 2026 · Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 · Home3–3
WWonat Erandio12 Sept 2026 · Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 · Away1–0
LLostv Sodupe6 Sept 2026 · Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 · Home0–2
In the modelThe model rates each team's home and away records separately.
The last 5 and 10 matches, then Santurtzi at home and R. Union B away only: a home fixture is read from home matches where there are enough.
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
Santurtzi
- Last 5 (5)1 won, 0 drawn, 4 lost · 2 scored, 7 conceded · 0.60 points a game · 0 clean sheets · failed to score in 4
- Last 10 (5)1 won, 0 drawn, 4 lost · 2 scored, 7 conceded · 0.60 points a game · 0 clean sheets · failed to score in 4
- Home, last 5 (2)1 won, 0 drawn, 1 lost · 2 scored, 2 conceded · 1.50 points a game · 0 clean sheets · failed to score in 1
- Home, last 10 (2)1 won, 0 drawn, 1 lost · 2 scored, 2 conceded · 1.50 points a game · 0 clean sheets · failed to score in 1
Santurtzi| Sample | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | CS | FTS |
|---|
| Last 5 (5) | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 7 | -5 | 3 | 0.60 | 0 | 4 |
|---|
| Last 10 (5) | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 7 | -5 | 3 | 0.60 | 0 | 4 |
|---|
| Home, last 5 (2) | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 1.50 | 0 | 1 |
|---|
| Home, last 10 (2) | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 1.50 | 0 | 1 |
|---|
R. Union B
- Last 5 (5)1 won, 2 drawn, 2 lost · 7 scored, 11 conceded · 1.00 points a game · 1 clean sheet · failed to score in 2
- Last 10 (5)1 won, 2 drawn, 2 lost · 7 scored, 11 conceded · 1.00 points a game · 1 clean sheet · failed to score in 2
- Away, last 5 (2)1 won, 1 drawn, 0 lost · 4 scored, 3 conceded · 2.00 points a game · 1 clean sheet · failed to score in 0
- Away, last 10 (2)1 won, 1 drawn, 0 lost · 4 scored, 3 conceded · 2.00 points a game · 1 clean sheet · failed to score in 0
R. Union B| Sample | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | CS | FTS |
|---|
| Last 5 (5) | 5 | 1 |
|---|
Santurtzi at home: Insufficient historical data. Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
R. Union B away: Insufficient historical data. Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
Context onlyShown for context. The model's own ratings come from goals scored and conceded this season and last.
| Measure | Santurtzi | R. Union B |
|---|
| League position | 17th | 14th |
|---|
| Points per game | 0.60 | 1.00 |
|---|
| Attack: goals per game (last 5 and 5) | 0.40 | 1.40 |
|---|
| Defence: conceded per game (last 5 and 5) | 1.40 | 2.20 |
|---|
| Clean sheets | 0 | 1 |
|---|
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
In the modelMissing players move the model's expected goals, chiefly a missing top scorer.
Players out or doubtful, as reported the night before.
Showing the top 20 of 26 picks, in kick-off order. 6 more are under Show all.Updating…
Starting in 3 to 6 hours (12)
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 71%
Average price 1.32
GENGenoaLLWDLFIOFiorentinaDWWLL
Last 5 games
· Italy - Serie A
Each of Fiorentina's last 5 league matches had two or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 93%
Average price 1.03
AUGFC AugsburgDLDWWBMUBayern MünchenWWWD
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 85%
Average price 1.10
HOF1899 HoffenheimLLWLLHAMHamburger SVWWLL
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 87%
Average price 1.07
PADSC Paderborn 07WWLLDVSTVfB StuttgartWWLL
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 82%
Average price 1.13
UBEUnion BerlinWLLLDELVSV ElversbergLDLW
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 84%
Average price 1.11
FMAFSV Mainz 05WWLWDBLEBayer LeverkusenWWDW
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 83%
Average price 1.13
CHEChelseaLDWLWBOUBournemouthLWDW
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 79%
Average price 1.18
MIDMiddlesbroughDDWLWWOLWolvesWLWD
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 75%
Average price 1.25
PREPrestonDLLWLMILMillwallDDLL
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 86%
Average price 1.08
RANRangersWWWWWKILKilmarnockDWDD
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 75%
Average price 1.25
ALAAlavesDLLWWAMAAtletico MadridWWWL
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 85%
Average price 1.09
GAEGO Ahead EaglesDDDLWSROSparta RotterdamLLDL
Starting later (8)
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 86%
Average price 1.08
INTInterWDWLWPARParmaWLD
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|
| 1 | Aurrerá Vitoria | 5 | – | – | – | – | – | +6 | 13 |
| 2 | Derio | 5 | – | – | – | – | – | +5 | 11 |
| 3 | Pasaia KE | 5 | – | – | – | – | – | +1 | 10 |
| 4 | Leioa | 5 | – | – | – | – | – | +6 | 9 |
| 5 | Real Sociedad III | 5 | – | – | – | – | – | +2 | 8 |
| 6 | Touring | 5 | – | – | – | – | – | +2 | 8 |
| 7 | Aretxabaleta | 5 | – | – | – | – | – | +1 | 8 |
| 8 | Deportivo Alavés III | 5 | – | – | – | – | – | +5 | 7 |
| 9 | Lagun Onak | 5 | – | – | – | – | – | -1 | 7 |
| 10 | Durango | 5 | – | – | – | – | – | 0 | 6 |
| 11 | Erandio | 5 | – | – | – | – | – | 0 | 6 |
| 12 | San Ignacio | 5 | – | – | – | – | – | +1 | 5 |
| 13 | Eibar III | 5 | – | – | – | – | – | 0 | 5 |
| 14 | R. Union B | 5 | – | – | – | – | – | -4 | 5 |
| 15 | Sodupe | 5 | – | – | – | – | – | -5 | 5 |
| 16 | Beasain | 5 | – | – | – | – | – | -3 | 4 |
| 17 | Santurtzi | 5 | – | – | – | – | – | -5 | 3 |
| 18 | Amurrio Club | 5 | – | – | – | – | – | -11 | 1 |
| Last 10 (5) | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 11 | -4 | 5 | 1.00 | 1 | 2 |
|---|
| Away, last 5 (2) | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 3 | +1 | 4 | 2.00 | 1 | 0 |
|---|
| Away, last 10 (2) | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 3 | +1 | 4 | 2.00 | 1 | 0 |
|---|
W
· Germany - Bundesliga
Each of FC Augsburg's last 4 league matches had three or more goals.
L
· Germany - Bundesliga
Each of 1899 Hoffenheim's last 4 league matches had three or more goals.
W
· Germany - Bundesliga
3 of VfB Stuttgart's last 4 league matches had two or more goals.
W
· Germany - Bundesliga
Each of Union Berlin's last 4 league matches had three or more goals.
L
· Germany - Bundesliga
Each of Bayer Leverkusen's last 4 league matches had two or more goals.
D
· England - Premier League
Each of Chelsea's last 5 league matches had three or more goals.
L
· England - Championship
Each of Middlesbrough's last 4 home matches had three or more goals.
W
· England - Championship
Each of Millwall's last 8 league matches had two or more goals.
L
· Scotland - Premiership
The model expects Rangers to score 1.9 goals and Kilmarnock 0.9.
L
· Spain - La Liga
Each of Atletico Madrid's last 7 league matches had two or more goals.
D
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
Each of GO Ahead Eagles's last 7 league matches had two or more goals.
L
L
· Italy - Serie A
Each of Parma's last 4 league matches had two or more goals.
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 88%
Average price 1.05
RLERB LeipzigLWLLWEFREintracht FrankfurtWDWLD
Last 5 games
· Germany - Bundesliga
Each of RB Leipzig's last 4 league matches had two or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 83%
Average price 1.12
MANManchester UnitedDLLWDTOTTottenhamLLDDL
Last 5 games
· England - Premier League
4 of Manchester United's last 5 league matches had two or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 85%
Average price 1.10
FEYFeyenoordWWLWDAALAZ AlkmaarWLDWW
Last 5 games
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
Each of Feyenoord's last 6 league matches had three or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 74%
Average price 1.25
MARMaritimoDLLLDPORFC PortoWWWLW
Last 5 games
· Portugal - Primeira Liga
Each of FC Porto's last 7 league matches had two or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 86%
Average price 1.09
FSIFortuna SittardWWLWWTWETwenteWWWWD
Last 5 games
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
Each of Fortuna Sittard's last 3 home matches had two or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 88%
Average price 1.06
AJAAjaxDWWLWNNINEC NijmegenDLLDL
Last 5 games
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
Each of Ajax's last 7 league matches had two or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 88%
Average price 1.05
RMAReal MadridLWWWLVILVillarrealWWLLL
Last 5 games
· Spain - La Liga
Each of Villarreal's last 4 league matches had three or more goals.
See the full analysis