Shanghai Shenhua vs Yunnan Yukun prediction, Saturday 10 October: chances and analysisBack to today's picks
· China - Super League
Shanghai Shenhua v Yunnan YukunHomevAwayHomevAway
No pick for this match: no market passed our rules.
Our model's chances
Chances of each result: Shanghai Shenhua win 58%, Draw 18%, Yunnan Yukun win 24%.
Shanghai Shenhua host Yunnan Yukun in the Super League, China.
Our model gives Shanghai Shenhua a 58% chance of winning, a draw 18% and Yunnan Yukun 24%.
The model expects Shanghai Shenhua to score 2.6 goals and Yunnan Yukun 1.6.
Shanghai Shenhua have won 4 of their last 6 league matches; Yunnan Yukun have won 3 of 6.
Top factors
- Shanghai Shenhua sit 5th with 41 points; Yunnan Yukun sit 7th with 38 points.
- Shanghai Shenhua have taken 9 points from their last 5 matches; Yunnan Yukun 10 from 5.
- At home, Shanghai Shenhua have taken 3 points from their last 3; away, Yunnan Yukun have taken 1 from their last 3.
Chances and prices are from our nightly scan before the match. Nothing after that is used.
Key numbers, the table, form, head to head and more.
Our model's chance for each market, with the bookmakers' average price.
- Shanghai Shenhua win
- 58% · price 1.54
Yunnan Yukun win24% · price 4.51 Over 1.5 goals89% · price 1.03 Over 2.5 goals73% · price 1.18 Both teams score61% · price 1.27 Expected goals (our model)Shanghai Shenhua 2.6, Yunnan Yukun 1.6 Context onlyTable position isn't in the model.
Where the teams sit in the Super League, before kick-off.
Shanghai Shenhua sit 5th with 41 points; Yunnan Yukun sit 7th with 38. A gap of 3 in goal difference, in favour of Shanghai Shenhua.
Stored before 7 October 2026: wins, draws, losses and goals were not kept.
- 4th SHANGHAI SIPG41 points from 27 games · goal difference +9
- 5th Shanghai Shenhua41 points from 26 games · goal difference +6
- 6th Dalian Zhixing40 points from 26 games · goal difference -4
- 7th Yunnan Yukun38 points from 26 games · goal difference +3
- 8th Qingdao Youth Island38 points from 26 games · goal difference -1
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|
| 4 | SHANGHAI SIPG | 27 | – | – | – | – | – | +9 | 41 |
| 5 | Shanghai Shenhua | 26 | – | – | – | – | – | +6 | 41 |
| 6 | Dalian Zhixing | 26 | – | – | – | – | – | -4 | 40 |
| 7 | Yunnan Yukun | 26 | – | – | – | – | – | +3 | 38 |
| 8 | Qingdao Youth Island | 26 | – | – | – | – | – | -1 | 38 |
Show full tableShow less
- 1st Chengdu Better City52 points from 26 games · goal difference +21
- 2nd Beijing Guoan46 points from 27 games · goal difference +19
- 3rd Shandong Luneng43 points from 26 games · goal difference +3
- 4th SHANGHAI SIPG41 points from 27 games · goal difference +9
- 5th Shanghai Shenhua41 points from 26 games · goal difference +6
- 6th Dalian Zhixing40 points from 26 games · goal difference -4
- 7th Yunnan Yukun38 points from 26 games · goal difference +3
- 8th Qingdao Youth Island38 points from 26 games · goal difference -1
- 9th Hangzhou Greentown36 points from 27 games · goal difference 0
- 10th Tianjin Teda35 points from 26 games · goal difference +4
-
Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.
Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
WWonat Chongqing Tongliang Long6 Sept 2026 · Super League · Away3–1
LLostv Shandong Luneng28 Aug 2026 · Super League · Home2–3
WWonat Chengdu Better City22 Aug 2026 · Super League · Away5–4
LLostv Beijing Guoan18 Aug 2026 · Super League · Home0–3
WWonv Henan Jianye15 Aug 2026 · Super League · Home4–1
Show last 6 matchesShowing 6
WWonat Qingdao Jonoon8 Aug 2026 · Super League · Away1–0
Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.
Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
WWonv Shenyang Urban6 Sept 2026 · Super League · Home5–0
LLostat Hangzhou Greentown29 Aug 2026 · Super League · Away0–6
DDrewat Beijing Guoan22 Aug 2026 · Super League · Away3–3
WWonv Dalian Zhixing15 Aug 2026 · Super League · Home3–1
WWonv Chengdu Better City8 Aug 2026 · Super League · Home1–0
Show last 6 matchesShowing 6
LLostat Tianjin Teda1 Aug 2026 · Super League · Away2–3
In the modelThe model rates each team's home and away records separately.
The last 5 and 10 matches, then Shanghai Shenhua at home and Yunnan Yukun away only: a home fixture is read from home matches where there are enough.
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
Shanghai Shenhua
- Last 5 (5)3 won, 0 drawn, 2 lost · 14 scored, 12 conceded · 1.80 points a game · 0 clean sheets · failed to score in 1
- Last 10 (6)4 won, 0 drawn, 2 lost · 15 scored, 12 conceded · 2.00 points a game · 1 clean sheet · failed to score in 1
- Home, last 5 (3)1 won, 0 drawn, 2 lost · 6 scored, 7 conceded · 1.00 points a game · 0 clean sheets · failed to score in 1
- Home, last 10 (3)1 won, 0 drawn, 2 lost · 6 scored, 7 conceded · 1.00 points a game · 0 clean sheets · failed to score in 1
Shanghai Shenhua| Sample | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | CS | FTS |
|---|
| Last 5 (5) | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 14 | 12 | +2 | 9 | 1.80 | 0 | 1 |
|---|
| Last 10 (6) | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 15 | 12 | +3 | 12 | 2.00 | 1 | 1 |
|---|
| Home, last 5 (3) | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 7 | -1 | 3 | 1.00 | 0 | 1 |
|---|
| Home, last 10 (3) | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 7 | -1 | 3 | 1.00 | 0 | 1 |
|---|
Yunnan Yukun
- Last 5 (5)3 won, 1 drawn, 1 lost · 12 scored, 10 conceded · 2.00 points a game · 2 clean sheets · failed to score in 1
- Last 10 (6)3 won, 1 drawn, 2 lost · 14 scored, 13 conceded · 1.67 points a game · 2 clean sheets · failed to score in 1
- Away, last 5 (3)0 won, 1 drawn, 2 lost · 5 scored, 12 conceded · 0.33 points a game · 0 clean sheets · failed to score in 1
- Away, last 10 (3)0 won, 1 drawn, 2 lost · 5 scored, 12 conceded · 0.33 points a game · 0 clean sheets · failed to score in 1
Yunnan Yukun| Sample | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | CS | FTS |
|---|
| Last 5 (5) | 5 | 3 |
|---|
Shanghai Shenhua at home: Insufficient historical data. Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
Yunnan Yukun away: Insufficient historical data. Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
Context onlyShown for context. The model's own ratings come from goals scored and conceded this season and last.
| Measure | Shanghai Shenhua | Yunnan Yukun |
|---|
| League position | 5th | 7th |
|---|
| Points per game | 1.58 | 1.46 |
|---|
| Attack: goals per game (last 6 and 6) | 2.50 | 2.33 |
|---|
| Defence: conceded per game (last 6 and 6) | 2.00 | 2.17 |
|---|
| Clean sheets | 1 | 2 |
|---|
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
In the modelMissing players move the model's expected goals, chiefly a missing top scorer.
Players out or doubtful, as reported the night before.
Shanghai Shenhua
None reported.
Yunnan Yukun
None reported.
Context onlyFacts pointing the other way. The model doesn't read them.
Evidence pointing the other way.
- Yunnan Yukun have the better recent form: 10 points from 5 against 9 from 5.
11th
Henan Jianye
34 points from 27 games · goal difference -2
12th Chongqing Tongliang Long31 points from 26 games · goal difference -513th Sichuan Jiuniu29 points from 27 games · goal difference -1114th Wuhan Three Towns26 points from 26 games · goal difference -715th Shenyang Urban25 points from 26 games · goal difference -1316th Qingdao Jonoon21 points from 27 games · goal difference -22| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|
| 1 | Chengdu Better City | 26 | – | – | – | – | – | +21 | 52 |
| 2 | Beijing Guoan | 27 | – | – | – | – | – | +19 | 46 |
| 3 | Shandong Luneng | 26 | – | – | – | – | – | +3 | 43 |
| 4 | SHANGHAI SIPG | 27 | – | – | – | – | – | +9 | 41 |
| 5 | Shanghai Shenhua | 26 | – | – | – | – | – | +6 | 41 |
| 6 | Dalian Zhixing | 26 | – | – | – | – | – | -4 | 40 |
| 7 | Yunnan Yukun | 26 | – | – | – | – | – | +3 | 38 |
| 8 | Qingdao Youth Island | 26 | – | – | – | – | – | -1 | 38 |
| 9 | Hangzhou Greentown | 27 | – | – | – | – | – | 0 | 36 |
| 10 | Tianjin Teda | 26 | – | – | – | – | – | +4 | 35 |
| 11 | Henan Jianye | 27 | – | – | – | – | – | -2 | 34 |
| 12 | Chongqing Tongliang Long | 26 | – | – | – | – | – | -5 | 31 |
| 13 | Sichuan Jiuniu | 27 | – | – | – | – | – | -11 | 29 |
| 14 | Wuhan Three Towns | 26 | – | – | – | – | – | -7 | 26 |
| 15 | Shenyang Urban | 26 | – | – | – | – | – | -13 | 25 |
| 16 | Qingdao Jonoon | 27 | – | – | – | – | – | -22 | 21 |
| Last 10 (6) | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 14 | 13 | +1 | 10 | 1.67 | 2 | 1 |
|---|
| Away, last 5 (3) | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 12 | -7 | 1 | 0.33 | 0 | 1 |
|---|
| Away, last 10 (3) | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 12 | -7 | 1 | 0.33 | 0 | 1 |
|---|
Yesterday: 4 of 4 picks won. See every pick
Today's picks
Today, Saturday 10 October
Times shown in your time (EDT)
Showing the top 20 of 26 picks, in kick-off order. 6 more are under Show all.Updating…
Starting in 3 to 6 hours (12)
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 71%
Average price 1.32
GENGenoaLLWDLFIOFiorentinaDWWLL
Last 5 games
· Italy - Serie A
Each of Fiorentina's last 5 league matches had two or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 93%
Average price 1.03
AUGFC AugsburgDLDWWBMUBayern MünchenWWWD
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 85%
Average price 1.10
HOF1899 HoffenheimLLWLLHAMHamburger SVWWLL
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 87%
Average price 1.07
PADSC Paderborn 07WWLLDVSTVfB StuttgartWWLL
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 82%
Average price 1.13
UBEUnion BerlinWLLLDELVSV ElversbergLDLW
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 84%
Average price 1.11
FMAFSV Mainz 05WWLWDBLEBayer LeverkusenWWDW
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 83%
Average price 1.13
CHEChelseaLDWLWBOUBournemouthLWDW
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 79%
Average price 1.18
MIDMiddlesbroughDDWLWWOLWolvesWLWD
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 75%
Average price 1.25
PREPrestonDLLWLMILMillwallDDLL
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 86%
Average price 1.08
RANRangersWWWWWKILKilmarnockDWDD
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 75%
Average price 1.25
ALAAlavesDLLWWAMAAtletico MadridWWWL
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 85%
Average price 1.09
GAEGO Ahead EaglesDDDLWSROSparta RotterdamLLDL
Starting later (8)
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 86%
Average price 1.08
INTInterWDWLWPARParmaWLD
W
· Germany - Bundesliga
Each of FC Augsburg's last 4 league matches had three or more goals.
L
· Germany - Bundesliga
Each of 1899 Hoffenheim's last 4 league matches had three or more goals.
W
· Germany - Bundesliga
3 of VfB Stuttgart's last 4 league matches had two or more goals.
W
· Germany - Bundesliga
Each of Union Berlin's last 4 league matches had three or more goals.
L
· Germany - Bundesliga
Each of Bayer Leverkusen's last 4 league matches had two or more goals.
D
· England - Premier League
Each of Chelsea's last 5 league matches had three or more goals.
L
· England - Championship
Each of Middlesbrough's last 4 home matches had three or more goals.
W
· England - Championship
Each of Millwall's last 8 league matches had two or more goals.
L
· Scotland - Premiership
The model expects Rangers to score 1.9 goals and Kilmarnock 0.9.
L
· Spain - La Liga
Each of Atletico Madrid's last 7 league matches had two or more goals.
D
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
Each of GO Ahead Eagles's last 7 league matches had two or more goals.
L
L
· Italy - Serie A
Each of Parma's last 4 league matches had two or more goals.
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 88%
Average price 1.05
RLERB LeipzigLWLLWEFREintracht FrankfurtWDWLD
Last 5 games
· Germany - Bundesliga
Each of RB Leipzig's last 4 league matches had two or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 83%
Average price 1.12
MANManchester UnitedDLLWDTOTTottenhamLLDDL
Last 5 games
· England - Premier League
4 of Manchester United's last 5 league matches had two or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 85%
Average price 1.10
FEYFeyenoordWWLWDAALAZ AlkmaarWLDWW
Last 5 games
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
Each of Feyenoord's last 6 league matches had three or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 74%
Average price 1.25
MARMaritimoDLLLDPORFC PortoWWWLW
Last 5 games
· Portugal - Primeira Liga
Each of FC Porto's last 7 league matches had two or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 86%
Average price 1.09
FSIFortuna SittardWWLWWTWETwenteWWWWD
Last 5 games
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
Each of Fortuna Sittard's last 3 home matches had two or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 88%
Average price 1.06
AJAAjaxDWWLWNNINEC NijmegenDLLDL
Last 5 games
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
Each of Ajax's last 7 league matches had two or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 88%
Average price 1.05
RMAReal MadridLWWWLVILVillarrealWWLLL
Last 5 games
· Spain - La Liga
Each of Villarreal's last 4 league matches had three or more goals.
See the full analysis