Sheffield Utd vs Lincoln prediction, Saturday 10 October: chances and analysisBack to today's picks
· England - Championship
Sheffield Utd v LincolnHomevAwayHomevAway
No pick for this match: no market passed our rules.
Our model's chances
Chances of each result: Sheffield Utd win 47%, Draw 26%, Lincoln win 27%.
Sheffield Utd host Lincoln in the Championship, England.
Our model gives Sheffield Utd a 47% chance of winning, a draw 26% and Lincoln 27%.
The model expects Sheffield Utd to score 1.5 goals and Lincoln 1.1.
Sheffield Utd have won 2 of their last 6 league matches; Lincoln have won 3 of 6.
Top factors
- Sheffield Utd sit 18th with 9 points; Lincoln sit 13th with 11 points.
- Sheffield Utd have taken 6 points from their last 5 matches; Lincoln 8 from 5.
- At home, Sheffield Utd have taken 3 points from their last 3; away, Lincoln have taken 9 from their last 3.
Chances and prices are from our nightly scan before the match. Nothing after that is used.
Key numbers, the table, form, head to head and more.
Our model's chance for each market, with the bookmakers' average price.
- Sheffield Utd win
- 47% · price 2.12
Yesterday: 4 of 4 picks won. See every pick
Today's picks
Today, Saturday 10 October
Times shown in your time (EDT)
Showing the top 20 of 26 picks, in kick-off order. 6 more are under Show all.Updating…
Starting in 3 to 6 hours (12)
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 71%
Average price 1.32
GENGenoaLLWDLFIOFiorentinaDWW
Lincoln win27% · price 3.35 Over 1.5 goals74% · price 1.31 Over 2.5 goals50% · price 1.98 Both teams score51% · price 1.76 Expected goals (our model)Sheffield Utd 1.5, Lincoln 1.1 Context onlyFacts that explain the pick. The model doesn't read them.
Worked out from the stored data, never estimated.
- Sheffield Utd sit 18th with 9 points; Lincoln sit 13th with 11 points.
- Sheffield Utd have taken 6 points from their last 5 matches; Lincoln 8 from 5.
- At home, Sheffield Utd have taken 3 points from their last 3; away, Lincoln have taken 9 from their last 3.
- Sheffield Utd have 3 players out or doubtful; Lincoln have 3.
Context onlyTable position isn't in the model.
Where the teams sit in the Championship, before kick-off.
Sheffield Utd sit 18th with 9 points; Lincoln sit 13th with 11. A gap of 1 in goal difference, in favour of Lincoln.
Stored before 7 October 2026: wins, draws, losses and goals were not kept.
- 12th Millwall11 points from 8 games · goal difference 0
- 13th Lincoln11 points from 8 games · goal difference -1
- 14th Wrexham10 points from 8 games · goal difference -3
- 17th Norwich9 points from 8 games · goal difference -1
- 18th Sheffield Utd9 points from 8 games · goal difference -2
- 19th Portsmouth8 points from 7 games · goal difference -1
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|
| 12 | Millwall | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | 0 | 11 |
| 13 | Lincoln | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | -1 | 11 |
| 14 | Wrexham | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | -3 | 10 |
| 17 | Norwich | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | -1 | 9 |
| 18 | Sheffield Utd | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | -2 | 9 |
| 19 | Portsmouth | 7 | – | – | – | – | – | -1 | 8 |
Show full tableShow less
- 1st Swansea17 points from 8 games · goal difference +7
- 2nd West Ham16 points from 9 games · goal difference +11
- 3rd Middlesbrough15 points from 8 games · goal difference +4
- 4th Southampton14 points from 8 games · goal difference +9
- 5th Wolves14 points from 7 games · goal difference +5
- 6th QPR14 points from 9 games · goal difference +3
- 7th West Brom14 points from 8 games · goal difference +2
- 8th Stoke City13 points from 8 games · goal difference +1
- 9th Bristol City13 points from 8 games · goal difference -1
- 10th Charlton12 points from 8 games · goal difference -3
- 11th Birmingham11 points from 8 games · goal difference +1
Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.
Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
LLostat Stoke City19 Sept 2026 · Championship · Away1–2
LLostv Wolves13 Sept 2026 · Championship · Home0–1
WWonat Blackburn8 Sept 2026 · Championship · Away2–1
LLostv Norwich5 Sept 2026 · Championship · Home1–3
WWonv Bolton1 Sept 2026 · Championship · Home3–2
Show last 6 matchesShowing 6
DDrewat Cardiff29 Aug 2026 · Championship · Away2–2
Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.
Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
LLostv Swansea19 Sept 2026 · Championship · Home1–2
WWonat Bristol City15 Sept 2026 · Championship · Away1–0
WWonat Preston12 Sept 2026 · Championship · Away1–0
DDrewv Southampton5 Sept 2026 · Championship · Home1–1
DDrewv Blackburn1 Sept 2026 · Championship · Home0–0
Show last 6 matchesShowing 6
WWonat Bolton29 Aug 2026 · Championship · Away1–0
In the modelThe model rates each team's home and away records separately.
The last 5 and 10 matches, then Sheffield Utd at home and Lincoln away only: a home fixture is read from home matches where there are enough.
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
Sheffield Utd
- Last 5 (5)2 won, 0 drawn, 3 lost · 7 scored, 9 conceded · 1.20 points a game · 0 clean sheets · failed to score in 1
- Last 10 (6)2 won, 1 drawn, 3 lost · 9 scored, 11 conceded · 1.17 points a game · 0 clean sheets · failed to score in 1
- Home, last 5 (3)1 won, 0 drawn, 2 lost · 4 scored, 6 conceded · 1.00 points a game · 0 clean sheets · failed to score in 1
- Home, last 10 (3)1 won, 0 drawn, 2 lost · 4 scored, 6 conceded · 1.00 points a game · 0 clean sheets · failed to score in 1
Sheffield Utd| Sample | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | CS | FTS |
|---|
| Last 5 (5) | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 9 | -2 | 6 | 1.20 | 0 | 1 |
|---|
| Last 10 (6) | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 11 | -2 | 7 | 1.17 | 0 | 1 |
|---|
| Home, last 5 (3) | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 6 | -2 | 3 | 1.00 | 0 | 1 |
|---|
| Home, last 10 (3) | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 6 | -2 | 3 | 1.00 | 0 | 1 |
|---|
Lincoln
- Last 5 (5)2 won, 2 drawn, 1 lost · 4 scored, 3 conceded · 1.60 points a game · 3 clean sheets · failed to score in 1
- Last 10 (6)3 won, 2 drawn, 1 lost · 5 scored, 3 conceded · 1.83 points a game · 4 clean sheets · failed to score in 1
- Away, last 5 (3)3 won, 0 drawn, 0 lost · 3 scored, 0 conceded · 3.00 points a game · 3 clean sheets · failed to score in 0
- Away, last 10 (3)3 won, 0 drawn, 0 lost · 3 scored, 0 conceded · 3.00 points a game · 3 clean sheets · failed to score in 0
Lincoln| Sample | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | CS | FTS |
|---|
| Last 5 (5) | 5 | 2 |
|---|
Sheffield Utd at home: Insufficient historical data. Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
Lincoln away: Insufficient historical data. Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
Context onlyShown for context. The model's own ratings come from goals scored and conceded this season and last.
| Measure | Sheffield Utd | Lincoln |
|---|
| League position | 18th | 13th |
|---|
| Points per game | 1.13 | 1.38 |
|---|
| Attack: goals per game (last 6 and 6) | 1.50 | 0.83 |
|---|
| Defence: conceded per game (last 6 and 6) | 1.83 | 0.50 |
|---|
| Clean sheets | 0 | 4 |
|---|
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
In the modelMissing players move the model's expected goals, chiefly a missing top scorer.
Players out or doubtful, as reported the night before.
Sheffield Utd
- H. Burrows · out, muscle injury
- R. One · out, hamstring injury
- F. Seriki · out, knee injury
Lincoln
- T. Darikwa · out, knee injury
- M. Melia · out, thigh injury
- T. Hamer · doubtful, health problems
L
L
· Italy - Serie A
Each of Fiorentina's last 5 league matches had two or more goals.
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 93%
Average price 1.03
AUGFC AugsburgDLDWWBMUBayern MünchenWWWDW
Last 5 games
· Germany - Bundesliga
Each of FC Augsburg's last 4 league matches had three or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 85%
Average price 1.10
HOF1899 HoffenheimLLWLLHAMHamburger SVWWLLL
Last 5 games
· Germany - Bundesliga
Each of 1899 Hoffenheim's last 4 league matches had three or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 87%
Average price 1.07
PADSC Paderborn 07WWLLDVSTVfB StuttgartWWLLW
Last 5 games
· Germany - Bundesliga
3 of VfB Stuttgart's last 4 league matches had two or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 82%
Average price 1.13
UBEUnion BerlinWLLLDELVSV ElversbergLDLWW
Last 5 games
· Germany - Bundesliga
Each of Union Berlin's last 4 league matches had three or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 84%
Average price 1.11
FMAFSV Mainz 05WWLWDBLEBayer LeverkusenWWDWL
Last 5 games
· Germany - Bundesliga
Each of Bayer Leverkusen's last 4 league matches had two or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 83%
Average price 1.13
CHEChelseaLDWLWBOUBournemouthLWDWD
Last 5 games
· England - Premier League
Each of Chelsea's last 5 league matches had three or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 79%
Average price 1.18
MIDMiddlesbroughDDWLWWOLWolvesWLWDL
Last 5 games
· England - Championship
Each of Middlesbrough's last 4 home matches had three or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 75%
Average price 1.25
PREPrestonDLLWLMILMillwallDDLLW
Last 5 games
· England - Championship
Each of Millwall's last 8 league matches had two or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 86%
Average price 1.08
RANRangersWWWWWKILKilmarnockDWDDL
Last 5 games
· Scotland - Premiership
The model expects Rangers to score 1.9 goals and Kilmarnock 0.9.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 75%
Average price 1.25
ALAAlavesDLLWWAMAAtletico MadridWWWLL
Last 5 games
· Spain - La Liga
Each of Atletico Madrid's last 7 league matches had two or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 85%
Average price 1.09
GAEGO Ahead EaglesDDDLWSROSparta RotterdamLLDLD
Last 5 games
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
Each of GO Ahead Eagles's last 7 league matches had two or more goals.
See the full analysisStarting later (8)
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 86%
Average price 1.08
INTInterWDWLWPARParmaWLDLL
Last 5 games
· Italy - Serie A
Each of Parma's last 4 league matches had two or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 88%
Average price 1.05
RLERB LeipzigLWLLWEFREintracht FrankfurtWDWL
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 83%
Average price 1.12
MANManchester UnitedDLLWDTOTTottenhamLLDD
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 85%
Average price 1.10
FEYFeyenoordWWLWDAALAZ AlkmaarWLDW
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 74%
Average price 1.25
MARMaritimoDLLLDPORFC PortoWWWL
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 86%
Average price 1.09
FSIFortuna SittardWWLWWTWETwenteWWWW
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 88%
Average price 1.06
AJAAjaxDWWLWNNINEC NijmegenDLLD
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 88%
Average price 1.05
RMAReal MadridLWWWLVILVillarrealWWLL
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|
| 1 | Swansea | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | +7 | 17 |
| 2 | West Ham | 9 | – | – | – | – | – | +11 | 16 |
| 3 | Middlesbrough | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | +4 | 15 |
| 4 | Southampton | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | +9 | 14 |
| 5 | Wolves | 7 | – | – | – | – | – | +5 | 14 |
| 6 | QPR | 9 | – | – | – | – | – | +3 | 14 |
| 7 | West Brom | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | +2 | 14 |
| 8 | Stoke City | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | +1 | 13 |
| 9 | Bristol City | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | -1 | 13 |
| 10 | Charlton | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | -3 | 12 |
| 11 | Birmingham | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | +1 | 11 |
| 12 | Millwall | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | 0 | 11 |
| 13 | Lincoln | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | -1 | 11 |
| 14 | Wrexham | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | -3 | 10 |
| 15 | Bolton | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | -4 | 10 |
| 16 | Blackburn | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | 0 | 9 |
| 17 | Norwich | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | -1 | 9 |
| 18 | Sheffield Utd | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | -2 | 9 |
| 19 | Portsmouth | 7 | – | – | – | – | – | -1 | 8 |
| 20 | Watford | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | -3 | 8 |
| 21 | Cardiff | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | -2 | 7 |
| 22 | Derby | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | -7 | 5 |
| 23 | Preston | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | -7 | 4 |
| 24 | Burnley | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | -8 | 4 |
| Last 10 (6) | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 3 | +2 | 11 | 1.83 | 4 | 1 |
|---|
| Away, last 5 (3) | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | +3 | 9 | 3.00 | 3 | 0 |
|---|
| Away, last 10 (3) | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | +3 | 9 | 3.00 | 3 | 0 |
|---|
D
· Germany - Bundesliga
Each of RB Leipzig's last 4 league matches had two or more goals.
L
· England - Premier League
4 of Manchester United's last 5 league matches had two or more goals.
W
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
Each of Feyenoord's last 6 league matches had three or more goals.
W
· Portugal - Primeira Liga
Each of FC Porto's last 7 league matches had two or more goals.
D
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
Each of Fortuna Sittard's last 3 home matches had two or more goals.
L
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
Each of Ajax's last 7 league matches had two or more goals.
L
· Spain - La Liga
Each of Villarreal's last 4 league matches had three or more goals.