Shinnik Yaroslavl v TekstilshchikShinnik YaroslavlHomevTekstilshchikAwayShinnik YaroslavlHomevTekstilshchikAway
No pick for this match: no market passed our rules.
Our model's chances
Chances of each result: Shinnik Yaroslavl win 56%, Draw 26%, Tekstilshchik win 18%.
56%
Shinnik Yaroslavl win
26%
Draw
18%
Tekstilshchik win
What the data says
Shinnik Yaroslavl host Tekstilshchik in the First League, Russia.
Our model gives Shinnik Yaroslavl a 56% chance of winning, a draw 26% and Tekstilshchik 18%.
The model expects Shinnik Yaroslavl to score 1.6 goals and Tekstilshchik 0.7.
Shinnik Yaroslavl have won 1 of their last 6 league matches; Tekstilshchik have won 1 of 6.
Top factors
Shinnik Yaroslavl sit 9th with 16 points; Tekstilshchik sit 17th with 7 points.
Shinnik Yaroslavl have taken 4 points from their last 5 matches; Tekstilshchik 1 from 5.
At home, Shinnik Yaroslavl have taken 3 points from their last 4; away, Tekstilshchik have taken 4 from their last 3.
Chances and prices are from our nightly scan before the match. Nothing after that is used.
Full analysisKey numbers, the table, form, head to head and more.
Key numbers
Our model's chance for each market, with the bookmakers' average price.
Shinnik Yaroslavl win
56% · price 1.62
Shinnik Yaroslavl vs Tekstilshchik prediction, Saturday 10 October: chances and analysis
Draw
26% · price 3.71
Tekstilshchik win
18% · price 5.52
Over 1.5 goals
70% · price 1.35
Over 2.5 goals
45% · price 2.17
Both teams score
47%
Expected goals (our model)
Shinnik Yaroslavl 1.6, Tekstilshchik 0.7
League context
Context onlyTable position isn't in the model.
Where the teams sit in the First League, before kick-off.
Shinnik Yaroslavl sit 9th with 16 points; Tekstilshchik sit 17th with 7. A gap of 13 in goal difference, in favour of Shinnik Yaroslavl.
Stored before 7 October 2026: wins, draws, losses and goals were not kept.
8thRotor Volgograd17 points from 12 games · goal difference +6
9thShinnik Yaroslavl16 points from 12 games · goal difference +2
10thArsenal Tula16 points from 13 games · goal difference -9
16thKAMAZ9 points from 12 games · goal difference -8
17thTekstilshchik7 points from 12 games · goal difference -11
18thSka-khabarovsk6 points from 12 games · goal difference -12
#
Team
P
W
D
L
GF
GA
GD
Pts
8
Rotor Volgograd
12
–
–
–
–
–
+6
17
9
Shinnik Yaroslavl
12
–
–
–
–
–
+2
16
10
Arsenal Tula
13
–
–
–
–
–
-9
16
16
KAMAZ
12
–
–
–
–
–
-8
9
17
Tekstilshchik
12
–
–
–
–
–
-11
7
18
Ska-khabarovsk
12
–
–
–
–
–
-12
Show full tableShow less
1stNizhny Novgorod31 points from 12 games · goal difference +22
2ndUral25 points from 12 games · goal difference +14
3rdSpartak Kostroma24 points from 13 games · goal difference +5
4thFC Sochi23 points from 12 games · goal difference +7
5thVeles23 points from 13 games · goal difference +1
6thTorpedo Moskva21 points from 12 games · goal difference +12
7thFC UFA18 points from 12 games · goal difference +3
8thRotor Volgograd17 points from 12 games · goal difference +6
9thShinnik Yaroslavl16 points from 12 games · goal difference +2
10thArsenal Tula16 points from 13 games · goal difference -9
11thChelyabinsk
Shinnik Yaroslavl: recent fixtures
Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.
Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
DDrewv Ska-khabarovsk27 Sept 2026 · First League · Home0–0
LLostv KAMAZ18 Sept 2026 · First League · Home0–1
DDrewv Ural14 Sept 2026 · First League · Home1–1
DDrewv Rotor Volgograd5 Sept 2026 · First League · Home2–2
DDrewat Enisey30 Aug 2026 · First League · Away0–0
Show last 6 matchesShowing 6
WWonat Volga Ulyanovsk22 Aug 2026 · First League · Away3–1
Tekstilshchik: recent fixtures
Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.
Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
LLostv Rotor Volgograd17 Sept 2026 · First League · Home0–2
DDrewat Leningradets13 Sept 2026 · First League · Away2–2
LLostv Torpedo Moskva4 Sept 2026 · First League · Home1–4
LLostv Veles29 Aug 2026 · First League · Home0–1
LLostat Ural22 Aug 2026 · First League · Away0–2
Show last 6 matchesShowing 6
WWonat KAMAZ19 Aug 2026 · First League · Away1–0
Form, home and away
In the modelThe model rates each team's home and away records separately.
The last 5 and 10 matches, then Shinnik Yaroslavl at home and Tekstilshchik away only: a home fixture is read from home matches where there are enough.
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
Shinnik Yaroslavl
Last 5 (5)0 won, 4 drawn, 1 lost · 3 scored, 4 conceded · 0.80 points a game · 2 clean sheets · failed to score in 3
Last 10 (6)1 won, 4 drawn, 1 lost · 6 scored, 5 conceded · 1.17 points a game · 2 clean sheets · failed to score in 3
Home, last 5 (4)0 won, 3 drawn, 1 lost · 3 scored, 4 conceded · 0.75 points a game · 1 clean sheet · failed to score in 2
Home, last 10 (4)0 won, 3 drawn, 1 lost · 3 scored, 4 conceded · 0.75 points a game · 1 clean sheet · failed to score in 2
Shinnik Yaroslavl
Sample
P
W
D
L
GF
GA
GD
Pts
PPG
CS
FTS
Last 5 (5)
5
0
4
1
3
4
-1
4
0.80
2
3
Last 10 (6)
6
1
4
1
6
5
+1
7
1.17
2
3
Home, last 5 (4)
4
0
3
1
3
4
-1
3
0.75
1
2
Home, last 10 (4)
4
0
3
1
3
4
-1
3
0.75
1
2
Tekstilshchik
Last 5 (5)0 won, 1 drawn, 4 lost · 3 scored, 11 conceded · 0.20 points a game · 0 clean sheets · failed to score in 3
Last 10 (6)1 won, 1 drawn, 4 lost · 4 scored, 11 conceded · 0.67 points a game · 1 clean sheet · failed to score in 3
Away, last 5 (3)1 won, 1 drawn, 1 lost · 3 scored, 4 conceded · 1.33 points a game · 1 clean sheet · failed to score in 1
Away, last 10 (3)1 won, 1 drawn, 1 lost · 3 scored, 4 conceded · 1.33 points a game · 1 clean sheet · failed to score in 1
Tekstilshchik
Sample
P
W
D
L
GF
GA
GD
Pts
PPG
CS
FTS
Last 5 (5)
5
0
Shinnik Yaroslavl at home: Insufficient historical data. Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
Tekstilshchik away: Insufficient historical data. Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
Team strength, attack and defence
Context onlyShown for context. The model's own ratings come from goals scored and conceded this season and last.
Measure
Shinnik Yaroslavl
Tekstilshchik
League position
9th
17th
Points per game
1.33
0.58
Attack: goals per game (last 6 and 6)
1.00
0.67
Defence: conceded per game (last 6 and 6)
0.83
1.83
Clean sheets
2
1
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
Squad availability
In the modelMissing players move the model's expected goals, chiefly a missing top scorer.
Players out or doubtful, as reported the night before.