Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
78%win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 71%
Average price 1.32
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Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
78%win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 71%
Average price 1.32
· Germany - Regionalliga - West
No pick for this match: no market passed our rules.
Chances of each result: Sportfreunde Lotte win 27%, Draw 24%, Paderborn II win 49%.
Sportfreunde Lotte host Paderborn II in the Regionalliga - West, Germany.
Our model gives Sportfreunde Lotte a 27% chance of winning, a draw 24% and Paderborn II 49%.
The model expects Sportfreunde Lotte to score 1.2 goals and Paderborn II 1.8.
Sportfreunde Lotte have won 0 of their last 6 league matches; Paderborn II have won 2 of 6.
Chances and prices are from our nightly scan before the match. Nothing after that is used.
Our model's chance for each market, with the bookmakers' average price.
Last 5 games
· Italy - Serie A
Each of Fiorentina's last 5 league matches had two or more goals.
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
87%win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 93%
Average price 1.03
Last 5 games
· Germany - Bundesliga
Each of FC Augsburg's last 4 league matches had three or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
85%win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 85%
Average price 1.10
Last 5 games
· Germany - Bundesliga
Each of 1899 Hoffenheim's last 4 league matches had three or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
84%win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 87%
Average price 1.07
Last 5 games
· Germany - Bundesliga
3 of VfB Stuttgart's last 4 league matches had two or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
83%win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 82%
Average price 1.13
Last 5 games
· Germany - Bundesliga
Each of Union Berlin's last 4 league matches had three or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
81%win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 84%
Average price 1.11
Last 5 games
· Germany - Bundesliga
Each of Bayer Leverkusen's last 4 league matches had two or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
80%win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 83%
Average price 1.13
Last 5 games
· England - Premier League
Each of Chelsea's last 5 league matches had three or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
80%win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 79%
Average price 1.18
Last 5 games
· England - Championship
Each of Middlesbrough's last 4 home matches had three or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
77%win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 75%
Average price 1.25
Last 5 games
· England - Championship
Each of Millwall's last 8 league matches had two or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
77%win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 86%
Average price 1.08
Last 5 games
· Scotland - Premiership
The model expects Rangers to score 1.9 goals and Kilmarnock 0.9.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
77%win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 75%
Average price 1.25
Last 5 games
· Spain - La Liga
Each of Atletico Madrid's last 7 league matches had two or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
85%win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 85%
Average price 1.09
Last 5 games
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
Each of GO Ahead Eagles's last 7 league matches had two or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
81%win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 86%
Average price 1.08
Last 5 games
· Italy - Serie A
Each of Parma's last 4 league matches had two or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
89%win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 88%
Average price 1.05
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
78%win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 83%
Average price 1.12
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
85%win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 85%
Average price 1.10
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
78%win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 74%
Average price 1.25
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
85%win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 86%
Average price 1.09
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
86%win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 88%
Average price 1.06
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
83%win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 88%
Average price 1.05
Context onlyTable position isn't in the model.
Where the teams sit in the Regionalliga - West, before kick-off.
Sportfreunde Lotte sit 18th with 3 points; Paderborn II sit 12th with 13. A gap of 12 in goal difference, in favour of Paderborn II.
Stored before 7 October 2026: wins, draws, losses and goals were not kept.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | FC Bocholt | 11 | – | – | – | – | – | -2 | 13 |
| 12 | Paderborn II | 11 | – | – | – | – | – | -3 | 13 |
| 13 | SG Wattenscheid 09 | 11 | – | – | – | – | – | -4 | 12 |
| 17 | Wiedenbrück | 11 | – | – | – | – | – | -12 | 8 |
| 18 | Sportfreunde Lotte | 11 | – | – | – | – | – | -15 | 3 |
Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.
Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.
Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
In the modelThe model rates each team's home and away records separately.
The last 5 and 10 matches, then Sportfreunde Lotte at home and Paderborn II away only: a home fixture is read from home matches where there are enough.
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
| Sample | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | CS | FTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (5) | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 14 | -11 | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 3 |
| Last 10 (6) | 6 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 3 | 16 | -13 | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 4 |
| Home, last 5 (3) | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 10 | -10 | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 3 |
| Home, last 10 (3) | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 10 | -10 | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 3 |
| Sample | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | CS | FTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (5) | 5 | 2 |
Sportfreunde Lotte at home: Insufficient historical data. Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
Paderborn II away: Insufficient historical data. Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
Context onlyShown for context. The model's own ratings come from goals scored and conceded this season and last.
| Measure | Sportfreunde Lotte | Paderborn II |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 18th | 12th |
| Points per game | 0.27 | 1.18 |
| Attack: goals per game (last 6 and 6) | 0.50 | 1.83 |
| Defence: conceded per game (last 6 and 6) | 2.67 | 1.83 |
| Clean sheets | 0 | 0 |
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
In the modelMissing players move the model's expected goals, chiefly a missing top scorer.
Players out or doubtful, as reported the night before.
None reported.
None reported.
Last 5 games
· Germany - Bundesliga
Each of RB Leipzig's last 4 league matches had two or more goals.
Last 5 games
· England - Premier League
4 of Manchester United's last 5 league matches had two or more goals.
Last 5 games
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
Each of Feyenoord's last 6 league matches had three or more goals.
Last 5 games
· Portugal - Primeira Liga
Each of FC Porto's last 7 league matches had two or more goals.
Last 5 games
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
Each of Fortuna Sittard's last 3 home matches had two or more goals.
Last 5 games
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
Each of Ajax's last 7 league matches had two or more goals.
Last 5 games
· Spain - La Liga
Each of Villarreal's last 4 league matches had three or more goals.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rot-weiss Oberhausen | 11 | – | – | – | – | – | +19 | 28 |
| 2 | Borussia Dortmund II | 11 | – | – | – | – | – | +12 | 25 |
| 3 | FC Gutersloh | 11 | – | – | – | – | – | +13 | 23 |
| 4 | Borussia M'gladbach II | 11 | – | – | – | – | – | +12 | 20 |
| 5 | Westfalia Rhynern | 11 | – | – | – | – | – | -2 | 17 |
| 6 | Sportfreunde Siegen | 11 | – | – | – | – | – | +1 | 16 |
| 7 | Bergisch Gladbach | 11 | – | – | – | – | – | -3 | 16 |
| 8 | Bonner SC | 11 | – | – | – | – | – | +1 | 15 |
| 9 | Schalke 04 II | 10 | – | – | – | – | – | 0 | 15 |
| 10 | Köln II | 10 | – | – | – | – | – | +1 | 14 |
| 11 | FC Bocholt | 11 | – | – | – | – | – | -2 | 13 |
| 12 | Paderborn II | 11 | – | – | – | – | – | -3 | 13 |
| 13 | SG Wattenscheid 09 | 11 | – | – | – | – | – | -4 | 12 |
| 14 | Hilden | 11 | – | – | – | – | – | -7 | 12 |
| 15 | Bochum II | 11 | – | – | – | – | – | -6 | 11 |
| 16 | SV Rodinghausen | 11 | – | – | – | – | – | -5 | 9 |
| 17 | Wiedenbrück | 11 | – | – | – | – | – | -12 | 8 |
| 18 | Sportfreunde Lotte | 11 | – | – | – | – | – | -15 | 3 |
| 1 |
| 2 |
| 9 |
| 9 |
| 0 |
| 7 |
| 1.40 |
| 0 |
| 2 |
| Last 10 (6) | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 11 | 0 | 8 | 1.33 | 0 | 2 |
|---|
| Away, last 5 (4) | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 8 | -3 | 4 | 1.00 | 0 | 2 |
|---|
| Away, last 10 (4) | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 8 | -3 | 4 | 1.00 | 0 | 2 |
|---|