Showing the top 20 of 26 picks, in kick-off order. 6 more are under Show all.Updating…
Starting in 3 to 6 hours (12)
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
78%win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 71%
Average price 1.32
GENGenoaLLWDLFIOFiorentinaDWW
Draw
22% · price 4.86
Barnsley win
26% · price 6.13
Over 1.5 goals
81% · price 1.10
Over 2.5 goals
61% · price 1.39
Both teams score
56% · price 1.55
Expected goals (our model)
Stockport County 2.0, Barnsley 1.3
League context
Context onlyTable position isn't in the model.
Where the teams sit in the League One, before kick-off.
Stockport County sit 5th with 13 points; Barnsley sit 18th with 8. A gap of 12 in goal difference, in favour of Stockport County; Stockport County have played 1 more.
Stored before 7 October 2026: wins, draws, losses and goals were not kept.
4thSheffield Wednesday14 points from 7 games · goal difference +7
5thStockport County13 points from 8 games · goal difference +7
6thCambridge United13 points from 8 games · goal difference +2
17thMansfield Town8 points from 7 games · goal difference -3
18thBarnsley8 points from 7 games · goal difference -5
19thBromley8 points from 7 games · goal difference -10
#
Team
P
W
D
L
GF
GA
GD
Pts
4
Sheffield Wednesday
7
–
–
–
–
–
+7
14
5
Stockport County
8
–
–
–
–
–
+7
13
6
Cambridge United
8
–
–
–
–
–
+2
13
17
Mansfield Town
7
–
–
–
–
–
-3
8
18
Barnsley
7
–
–
–
–
–
-5
8
19
Bromley
7
–
–
–
–
–
-10
Show full tableShow less
1stPlymouth16 points from 9 games · goal difference +5
2ndBradford16 points from 8 games · goal difference +3
3rdHuddersfield15 points from 8 games · goal difference +7
4thSheffield Wednesday14 points from 7 games · goal difference +7
5thStockport County13 points from 8 games · goal difference +7
6thCambridge United13 points from 8 games · goal difference +2
7thReading12 points from 8 games · goal difference +7
8thBurton Albion12 points from 9 games · goal difference -1
9thAFC Wimbledon12 points from 8 games · goal difference -2
10thOxford United11 points from 6 games · goal difference +6
11thLeyton Orient
Stockport County: recent fixtures
Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.
Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
WWonv Peterborough26 Sept 2026 · League One · Home1–0
DDrewat Sheffield Wednesday19 Sept 2026 · League One · Away0–0
LLostv Leicester12 Sept 2026 · League One · Home3–4
WWonat Wigan5 Sept 2026 · League One · Away4–0
LLostat Luton2 Sept 2026 · League One · Away0–2
Show last 6 matchesShowing 6
WWonv Wycombe29 Aug 2026 · League One · Home5–1
Barnsley: recent fixtures
Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.
Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
DDrewv Leicester19 Sept 2026 · League One · Home1–1
LLostat Plymouth12 Sept 2026 · League One · Away0–3
LLostv Stevenage5 Sept 2026 · League One · Home1–5
WWonv Blackpool2 Sept 2026 · League One · Home2–1
WWonat Leyton Orient29 Aug 2026 · League One · Away3–1
Show last 6 matchesShowing 6
DDrewat Doncaster22 Aug 2026 · League One · Away0–0
Form, home and away
In the modelThe model rates each team's home and away records separately.
The last 5 and 10 matches, then Stockport County at home and Barnsley away only: a home fixture is read from home matches where there are enough.
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
Stockport County
Last 5 (5)2 won, 1 drawn, 2 lost · 8 scored, 6 conceded · 1.40 points a game · 3 clean sheets · failed to score in 2
Last 10 (6)3 won, 1 drawn, 2 lost · 13 scored, 7 conceded · 1.67 points a game · 3 clean sheets · failed to score in 2
Home, last 5 (3)2 won, 0 drawn, 1 lost · 9 scored, 5 conceded · 2.00 points a game · 1 clean sheet · failed to score in 0
Home, last 10 (3)2 won, 0 drawn, 1 lost · 9 scored, 5 conceded · 2.00 points a game · 1 clean sheet · failed to score in 0
Stockport County
Sample
P
W
D
L
GF
GA
GD
Pts
PPG
CS
FTS
Last 5 (5)
5
2
1
2
8
6
+2
7
1.40
3
2
Last 10 (6)
6
3
1
2
13
7
+6
10
1.67
3
2
Home, last 5 (3)
3
2
0
1
9
5
+4
6
2.00
1
0
Home, last 10 (3)
3
2
0
1
9
5
+4
6
2.00
1
0
Barnsley
Last 5 (5)2 won, 1 drawn, 2 lost · 7 scored, 11 conceded · 1.40 points a game · 0 clean sheets · failed to score in 1
Last 10 (6)2 won, 2 drawn, 2 lost · 7 scored, 11 conceded · 1.33 points a game · 1 clean sheet · failed to score in 2
Away, last 5 (3)1 won, 1 drawn, 1 lost · 3 scored, 4 conceded · 1.33 points a game · 1 clean sheet · failed to score in 2
Away, last 10 (3)1 won, 1 drawn, 1 lost · 3 scored, 4 conceded · 1.33 points a game · 1 clean sheet · failed to score in 2
Barnsley
Sample
P
W
D
L
GF
GA
GD
Pts
PPG
CS
FTS
Last 5 (5)
5
2
Stockport County at home: Insufficient historical data. Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
Barnsley away: Insufficient historical data. Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
Team strength, attack and defence
Context onlyShown for context. The model's own ratings come from goals scored and conceded this season and last.
Measure
Stockport County
Barnsley
League position
5th
18th
Points per game
1.63
1.14
Attack: goals per game (last 6 and 6)
2.17
1.17
Defence: conceded per game (last 6 and 6)
1.17
1.83
Clean sheets
3
1
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
Squad availability
In the modelMissing players move the model's expected goals, chiefly a missing top scorer.
Players out or doubtful, as reported the night before.
Stockport County
None reported.
Barnsley
None reported.
L
L
Last 5 games
· Italy - Serie A
Each of Fiorentina's last 5 league matches had two or more goals.