Stourbridge vs Leighton Town prediction, Saturday 10 October: chances and analysisBack to today's picks
· England - Non League Premier - Southern Central
Stourbridge v Leighton TownHomevAwayHomevAway
No pick for this match: no market passed our rules.
Our model's chances
Chances of each result: Stourbridge win 54%, Draw 23%, Leighton Town win 23%.
Stourbridge host Leighton Town in the Non League Premier - Southern Central, England.
Our model gives Stourbridge a 54% chance of winning, a draw 23% and Leighton Town 23%.
The model expects Stourbridge to score 1.9 goals and Leighton Town 1.1.
Stourbridge have won 0 of their last 6 league matches; Leighton Town have won 0 of 6.
Top factors
- Stourbridge sit 15th with 10 points; Leighton Town sit 21st with 5 points.
- Stourbridge have taken 2 points from their last 5 matches; Leighton Town 0 from 5.
- At home, Stourbridge have taken 0 points from their last 3; away, Leighton Town have taken 0 from their last 4.
Chances and prices are from our nightly scan before the match. Nothing after that is used.
Key numbers, the table, form, head to head and more.
Our model's chance for each market, with the bookmakers' average price.
- Stourbridge win
- 54% · price 1.81
Yesterday: 4 of 4 picks won. See every pick
Today's picks
Today, Saturday 10 October
Times shown in your time (EDT)
Showing the top 20 of 26 picks, in kick-off order. 6 more are under Show all.Updating…
Starting in 3 to 6 hours (12)
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 71%
Average price 1.32
GENGenoaLLWDLFIOFiorentinaDWW
Leighton Town win23% · price 3.66 Over 1.5 goals79% · price 1.20 Over 2.5 goals57% · price 1.70 Both teams score54% · price 1.62 Expected goals (our model)Stourbridge 1.9, Leighton Town 1.1 Context onlyTable position isn't in the model.
Where the teams sit in the Non League Premier - Southern Central, before kick-off.
Stourbridge sit 15th with 10 points; Leighton Town sit 21st with 5. A gap of 5 in goal difference, in favour of Stourbridge.
Stored before 7 October 2026: wins, draws, losses and goals were not kept.
- 14th Bishop's Stortford10 points from 9 games · goal difference -3
- 15th Stourbridge10 points from 9 games · goal difference -3
- 16th Leamington9 points from 9 games · goal difference -2
- 20th Stratford Town6 points from 9 games · goal difference -9
- 21st Leighton Town5 points from 9 games · goal difference -8
- 22nd Stamford0 points from 9 games · goal difference -24
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|
| 14 | Bishop's Stortford | 9 | – | – | – | – | – | -3 | 10 |
| 15 | Stourbridge | 9 | – | – | – | – | – | -3 | 10 |
| 16 | Leamington | 9 | – | – | – | – | – | -2 | 9 |
| 20 | Stratford Town | 9 | – | – | – | – | – | -9 | 6 |
| 21 | Leighton Town | 9 | – | – | – | – | – | -8 | 5 |
| 22 | Stamford | 9 | – | – | – | – | – | -24 |
Show full tableShow less
- 1st Real Bedford27 points from 9 games · goal difference +19
- 2nd Bury Town24 points from 9 games · goal difference +10
- 3rd Bromsgrove Sporting22 points from 9 games · goal difference +9
- 4th Alvechurch20 points from 9 games · goal difference +13
- 5th Kettering Town18 points from 9 games · goal difference +10
- 6th Rushall Olympic18 points from 10 games · goal difference +4
- 7th Peterborough Sports16 points from 10 games · goal difference +4
- 8th Anstey Nomads15 points from 9 games · goal difference +3
- 9th Needham Market13 points from 9 games · goal difference +2
- 10th Halesowen Town12 points from 7 games · goal difference 0
- 11th Leiston
Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.
Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
LLostv Racing Club Warwick3 Oct 2026 · Non League Premier - Southern Central · Home0–1
DDrewat Alvechurch29 Sept 2026 · Non League Premier - Southern Central · Away0–0
LLostv Real Bedford22 Sept 2026 · Non League Premier - Southern Central · Home1–4
DDrewat Hitchin Town12 Sept 2026 · Non League Premier - Southern Central · Away1–1
LLostv Leamington1 Sept 2026 · Non League Premier - Southern Central · Home0–2
Show last 6 matchesShowing 6
DDrewat Banbury United29 Aug 2026 · Non League Premier - Southern Central · Away1–1
Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.
Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
LLostv Peterborough Sports3 Oct 2026 · Non League Premier - Southern Central · Home2–4
LLostat Hitchin Town29 Sept 2026 · Non League Premier - Southern Central · Away0–1
LLostat Halesowen Town12 Sept 2026 · Non League Premier - Southern Central · Away2–4
LLostat Real Bedford31 Aug 2026 · Non League Premier - Southern Central · Away2–3
LLostv Bury Town29 Aug 2026 · Non League Premier - Southern Central · Home2–3
Show last 6 matchesShowing 6
LLostat Anstey Nomads22 Aug 2026 · Non League Premier - Southern Central · Away0–2
In the modelThe model rates each team's home and away records separately.
The last 5 and 10 matches, then Stourbridge at home and Leighton Town away only: a home fixture is read from home matches where there are enough.
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
Stourbridge
- Last 5 (5)0 won, 2 drawn, 3 lost · 2 scored, 8 conceded · 0.40 points a game · 1 clean sheet · failed to score in 3
- Last 10 (6)0 won, 3 drawn, 3 lost · 3 scored, 9 conceded · 0.50 points a game · 1 clean sheet · failed to score in 3
- Home, last 5 (3)0 won, 0 drawn, 3 lost · 1 scored, 7 conceded · 0.00 points a game · 0 clean sheets · failed to score in 2
- Home, last 10 (3)0 won, 0 drawn, 3 lost · 1 scored, 7 conceded · 0.00 points a game · 0 clean sheets · failed to score in 2
Stourbridge| Sample | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | CS | FTS |
|---|
| Last 5 (5) | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 8 | -6 | 2 | 0.40 | 1 | 3 |
|---|
| Last 10 (6) | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 9 | -6 | 3 | 0.50 | 1 | 3 |
|---|
| Home, last 5 (3) | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 7 | -6 | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 2 |
|---|
| Home, last 10 (3) | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 7 | -6 | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 2 |
|---|
Leighton Town
- Last 5 (5)0 won, 0 drawn, 5 lost · 8 scored, 15 conceded · 0.00 points a game · 0 clean sheets · failed to score in 1
- Last 10 (6)0 won, 0 drawn, 6 lost · 8 scored, 17 conceded · 0.00 points a game · 0 clean sheets · failed to score in 2
- Away, last 5 (4)0 won, 0 drawn, 4 lost · 4 scored, 10 conceded · 0.00 points a game · 0 clean sheets · failed to score in 2
- Away, last 10 (4)0 won, 0 drawn, 4 lost · 4 scored, 10 conceded · 0.00 points a game · 0 clean sheets · failed to score in 2
Leighton Town| Sample | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | CS | FTS |
|---|
| Last 5 (5) | 5 | 0 |
|---|
Stourbridge at home: Insufficient historical data. Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
Leighton Town away: Insufficient historical data. Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
Context onlyShown for context. The model's own ratings come from goals scored and conceded this season and last.
| Measure | Stourbridge | Leighton Town |
|---|
| League position | 15th | 21st |
|---|
| Points per game | 1.11 | 0.56 |
|---|
| Attack: goals per game (last 6 and 6) | 0.50 | 1.33 |
|---|
| Defence: conceded per game (last 6 and 6) | 1.50 | 2.83 |
|---|
| Clean sheets | 1 | 0 |
|---|
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
In the modelMissing players move the model's expected goals, chiefly a missing top scorer.
Players out or doubtful, as reported the night before.
Stourbridge
None reported.
Leighton Town
None reported.
L
L
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Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
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Average price 1.03
AUGFC AugsburgDLDWWBMUBayern MünchenWWWDW
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Each of FC Augsburg's last 4 league matches had three or more goals.
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PADSC Paderborn 07WWLLDVSTVfB StuttgartWWLLW
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Average price 1.13
UBEUnion BerlinWLLLDELVSV ElversbergLDLWW
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Each of Union Berlin's last 4 league matches had three or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
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Average price 1.11
FMAFSV Mainz 05WWLWDBLEBayer LeverkusenWWDWL
Last 5 games
· Germany - Bundesliga
Each of Bayer Leverkusen's last 4 league matches had two or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 83%
Average price 1.13
CHEChelseaLDWLWBOUBournemouthLWDWD
Last 5 games
· England - Premier League
Each of Chelsea's last 5 league matches had three or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 79%
Average price 1.18
MIDMiddlesbroughDDWLWWOLWolvesWLWDL
Last 5 games
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Each of Middlesbrough's last 4 home matches had three or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
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Average price 1.25
PREPrestonDLLWLMILMillwallDDLLW
Last 5 games
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Each of Millwall's last 8 league matches had two or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 86%
Average price 1.08
RANRangersWWWWWKILKilmarnockDWDDL
Last 5 games
· Scotland - Premiership
The model expects Rangers to score 1.9 goals and Kilmarnock 0.9.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
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Average price 1.25
ALAAlavesDLLWWAMAAtletico MadridWWWLL
Last 5 games
· Spain - La Liga
Each of Atletico Madrid's last 7 league matches had two or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
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Average price 1.09
GAEGO Ahead EaglesDDDLWSROSparta RotterdamLLDLD
Last 5 games
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
Each of GO Ahead Eagles's last 7 league matches had two or more goals.
See the full analysisStarting later (8)
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 86%
Average price 1.08
INTInterWDWLWPARParmaWLDLL
Last 5 games
· Italy - Serie A
Each of Parma's last 4 league matches had two or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 88%
Average price 1.05
RLERB LeipzigLWLLWEFREintracht FrankfurtWDWL
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
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Average price 1.12
MANManchester UnitedDLLWDTOTTottenhamLLDD
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 85%
Average price 1.10
FEYFeyenoordWWLWDAALAZ AlkmaarWLDW
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
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Our model · Bookmakers: 74%
Average price 1.25
MARMaritimoDLLLDPORFC PortoWWWL
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
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Average price 1.09
FSIFortuna SittardWWLWWTWETwenteWWWW
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 88%
Average price 1.06
AJAAjaxDWWLWNNINEC NijmegenDLLD
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 88%
Average price 1.05
RMAReal MadridLWWWLVILVillarrealWWLL
11 points from 9 games · goal difference 0
12th Redditch United10 points from 9 games · goal difference -113th Racing Club Warwick10 points from 10 games · goal difference -314th Bishop's Stortford10 points from 9 games · goal difference -315th Stourbridge10 points from 9 games · goal difference -316th Leamington9 points from 9 games · goal difference -217th Worcester City7 points from 9 games · goal difference -518th Hitchin Town7 points from 10 games · goal difference -919th Banbury United6 points from 9 games · goal difference -720th Stratford Town6 points from 9 games · goal difference -921st Leighton Town5 points from 9 games · goal difference -822nd Stamford0 points from 9 games · goal difference -24| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|
| 1 | Real Bedford | 9 | – | – | – | – | – | +19 | 27 |
| 2 | Bury Town | 9 | – | – | – | – | – | +10 | 24 |
| 3 | Bromsgrove Sporting | 9 | – | – | – | – | – | +9 | 22 |
| 4 | Alvechurch | 9 | – | – | – | – | – | +13 | 20 |
| 5 | Kettering Town | 9 | – | – | – | – | – | +10 | 18 |
| 6 | Rushall Olympic | 10 | – | – | – | – | – | +4 | 18 |
| 7 | Peterborough Sports | 10 | – | – | – | – | – | +4 | 16 |
| 8 | Anstey Nomads | 9 | – | – | – | – | – | +3 | 15 |
| 9 | Needham Market | 9 | – | – | – | – | – | +2 | 13 |
| 10 | Halesowen Town | 7 | – | – | – | – | – | 0 | 12 |
| 11 | Leiston | 9 | – | – | – | – | – | 0 | 11 |
| 12 | Redditch United | 9 | – | – | – | – | – | -1 | 10 |
| 13 | Racing Club Warwick | 10 | – | – | – | – | – | -3 | 10 |
| 14 | Bishop's Stortford | 9 | – | – | – | – | – | -3 | 10 |
| 15 | Stourbridge | 9 | – | – | – | – | – | -3 | 10 |
| 16 | Leamington | 9 | – | – | – | – | – | -2 | 9 |
| 17 | Worcester City | 9 | – | – | – | – | – | -5 | 7 |
| 18 | Hitchin Town | 10 | – | – | – | – | – | -9 | 7 |
| 19 | Banbury United | 9 | – | – | – | – | – | -7 | 6 |
| 20 | Stratford Town | 9 | – | – | – | – | – | -9 | 6 |
| 21 | Leighton Town | 9 | – | – | – | – | – | -8 | 5 |
| 22 | Stamford | 9 | – | – | – | – | – | -24 | 0 |
| Last 10 (6) | 6 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 8 | 17 | -9 | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 2 |
|---|
| Away, last 5 (4) | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 10 | -6 | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 2 |
|---|
| Away, last 10 (4) | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 10 | -6 | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 2 |
|---|
D
· Germany - Bundesliga
Each of RB Leipzig's last 4 league matches had two or more goals.
L
· England - Premier League
4 of Manchester United's last 5 league matches had two or more goals.
W
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
Each of Feyenoord's last 6 league matches had three or more goals.
W
· Portugal - Primeira Liga
Each of FC Porto's last 7 league matches had two or more goals.
D
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
Each of Fortuna Sittard's last 3 home matches had two or more goals.
L
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
Each of Ajax's last 7 league matches had two or more goals.
L
· Spain - La Liga
Each of Villarreal's last 4 league matches had three or more goals.