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· Italy - Serie B
Sudtirol v AscoliHomevAwayHomevAway
No pick for this match: no market passed our rules.
Our model's chances
Chances of each result: Sudtirol win 45%, Draw 28%, Ascoli win 27%.
Sudtirol host Ascoli in the Serie B, Italy.
Our model gives Sudtirol a 45% chance of winning, a draw 28% and Ascoli 27%.
The model expects Sudtirol to score 1.4 goals and Ascoli 1.0.
Sudtirol have won 3 of their last 5 league matches; Ascoli have won 3 of 5.
Top factors
- Sudtirol sit 2nd with 11 points; Ascoli sit 6th with 10 points.
- Sudtirol have taken 11 points from their last 5 matches; Ascoli 10 from 5.
- At home, Sudtirol have taken 7 points from their last 3; away, Ascoli have taken 3 from their last 2.
Chances and prices are from our nightly scan before the match. Nothing after that is used.
Key numbers, the table, form, head to head and more.
Our model's chance for each market, with the bookmakers' average price.
- Sudtirol win
- 45% · price 2.46
Ascoli win27% · price 2.86 Over 1.5 goals71% · price 1.29 Over 2.5 goals46% · price 1.97 Both teams score50% · price 1.71 Expected goals (our model)Sudtirol 1.4, Ascoli 1.0 Context onlyTable position isn't in the model.
Where the teams sit in the Serie B, before kick-off.
Sudtirol sit 2nd with 11 points; Ascoli sit 6th with 10. A gap of 3 in goal difference, in favour of Sudtirol.
Stored before 7 October 2026: wins, draws, losses and goals were not kept.
- 1st Palermo13 points from 5 games · goal difference +5
- 2nd Sudtirol11 points from 5 games · goal difference +6
- 3rd Mantova11 points from 5 games · goal difference +5
- 5th Modena10 points from 5 games · goal difference +4
- 6th Ascoli10 points from 5 games · goal difference +3
- 7th Hellas Verona7 points from 5 games · goal difference +3
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|
| 1 | Palermo | 5 | – | – | – | – | – | +5 | 13 |
| 2 | Sudtirol | 5 | – | – | – | – | – | +6 | 11 |
| 3 | Mantova | 5 | – | – | – | – | – | +5 | 11 |
| 5 | Modena | 5 | – | – | – | – | – | +4 | 10 |
| 6 | Ascoli | 5 | – | – | – | – | – | +3 | 10 |
| 7 | Hellas Verona | 5 | – | – | – | – | – | +3 | 7 |
Show full tableShow less
- 1st Palermo13 points from 5 games · goal difference +5
- 2nd Sudtirol11 points from 5 games · goal difference +6
- 3rd Mantova11 points from 5 games · goal difference +5
- 4th Avellino10 points from 6 games · goal difference +4
- 5th Modena10 points from 5 games · goal difference +4
- 6th Ascoli10 points from 5 games · goal difference +3
- 7th Hellas Verona7 points from 5 games · goal difference +3
- 8th Cesena7 points from 5 games · goal difference +1
- 9th Benevento7 points from 5 games · goal difference +1
- 10th Pisa7 points from 5 games · goal difference 0
- 11th Padova7 points from 5 games · goal difference -1
Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.
Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
WWonat Arezzo20 Sept 2026 · Serie B · Away4–1
DDrewv Modena12 Sept 2026 · Serie B · Home1–1
WWonv Catanzaro5 Sept 2026 · Serie B · Home2–0
DDrewat Benevento30 Aug 2026 · Serie B · Away1–1
WWonv Virtus Entella22 Aug 2026 · Serie B · Home1–0
Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.
Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
WWonv Avellino19 Sept 2026 · Serie B · Home3–1
LLostat Padova12 Sept 2026 · Serie B · Away0–1
WWonv Benevento5 Sept 2026 · Serie B · Home1–0
DDrewv Carrarese29 Aug 2026 · Serie B · Home1–1
WWonat Hellas Verona23 Aug 2026 · Serie B · Away2–1
In the modelThe model rates each team's home and away records separately.
The last 5 and 10 matches, then Sudtirol at home and Ascoli away only: a home fixture is read from home matches where there are enough.
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
Sudtirol
- Last 5 (5)3 won, 2 drawn, 0 lost · 9 scored, 3 conceded · 2.20 points a game · 2 clean sheets · failed to score in 0
- Last 10 (5)3 won, 2 drawn, 0 lost · 9 scored, 3 conceded · 2.20 points a game · 2 clean sheets · failed to score in 0
- Home, last 5 (3)2 won, 1 drawn, 0 lost · 4 scored, 1 conceded · 2.33 points a game · 2 clean sheets · failed to score in 0
- Home, last 10 (3)2 won, 1 drawn, 0 lost · 4 scored, 1 conceded · 2.33 points a game · 2 clean sheets · failed to score in 0
Sudtirol| Sample | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | CS | FTS |
|---|
| Last 5 (5) | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 9 | 3 | +6 | 11 | 2.20 | 2 | 0 |
|---|
| Last 10 (5) | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 9 | 3 | +6 | 11 | 2.20 | 2 | 0 |
|---|
| Home, last 5 (3) | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 1 | +3 | 7 | 2.33 | 2 | 0 |
|---|
| Home, last 10 (3) | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 1 | +3 | 7 | 2.33 | 2 | 0 |
|---|
Ascoli
- Last 5 (5)3 won, 1 drawn, 1 lost · 7 scored, 4 conceded · 2.00 points a game · 1 clean sheet · failed to score in 1
- Last 10 (5)3 won, 1 drawn, 1 lost · 7 scored, 4 conceded · 2.00 points a game · 1 clean sheet · failed to score in 1
- Away, last 5 (2)1 won, 0 drawn, 1 lost · 2 scored, 2 conceded · 1.50 points a game · 0 clean sheets · failed to score in 1
- Away, last 10 (2)1 won, 0 drawn, 1 lost · 2 scored, 2 conceded · 1.50 points a game · 0 clean sheets · failed to score in 1
Ascoli| Sample | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | CS | FTS |
|---|
| Last 5 (5) | 5 | 3 |
|---|
Sudtirol at home: Insufficient historical data. Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
Ascoli away: Insufficient historical data. Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
Context onlyShown for context. The model's own ratings come from goals scored and conceded this season and last.
| Measure | Sudtirol | Ascoli |
|---|
| League position | 2nd | 6th |
|---|
| Points per game | 2.20 | 2.00 |
|---|
| Attack: goals per game (last 5 and 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
|---|
| Defence: conceded per game (last 5 and 5) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
|---|
| Clean sheets | 2 | 1 |
|---|
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
In the modelMissing players move the model's expected goals, chiefly a missing top scorer.
Players out or doubtful, as reported the night before.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|
| 1 | Palermo | 5 | – | – | – | – | – | +5 | 13 |
| 2 | Sudtirol | 5 | – | – | – | – | – | +6 | 11 |
| 3 | Mantova | 5 | – | – | – | – | – | +5 | 11 |
| 4 | Avellino | 6 | – | – | – | – | – | +4 | 10 |
| 5 | Modena | 5 | – | – | – | – | – | +4 | 10 |
| 6 | Ascoli | 5 | – | – | – | – | – | +3 | 10 |
| 7 | Hellas Verona | 5 | – | – | – | – | – | +3 | 7 |
| 8 | Cesena | 5 | – | – | – | – | – | +1 | 7 |
| 9 | Benevento | 5 | – | – | – | – | – | +1 | 7 |
| 10 | Pisa | 5 | – | – | – | – | – | 0 | 7 |
| 11 | Padova | 5 | – | – | – | – | – | -1 | 7 |
| 12 | Empoli | 5 | – | – | – | – | – | -2 | 6 |
| 13 | Arezzo | 5 | – | – | – | – | – | -7 | 6 |
| 14 | Virtus Entella | 5 | – | – | – | – | – | +1 | 5 |
| 15 | Cremonese | 5 | – | – | – | – | – | -2 | 5 |
| 16 | Vicenza Virtus | 5 | – | – | – | – | – | -3 | 5 |
| 17 | Juve Stabia | 5 | – | – | – | – | – | -3 | 5 |
| 18 | Sampdoria | 6 | – | – | – | – | – | -7 | 4 |
| 19 | Catanzaro | 5 | – | – | – | – | – | -4 | 3 |
| 20 | Carrarese | 5 | – | – | – | – | – | -4 | 1 |
| Last 10 (5) | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 4 | +3 | 10 | 2.00 | 1 | 1 |
|---|
| Away, last 5 (2) | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 1.50 | 0 | 1 |
|---|
| Away, last 10 (2) | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 1.50 | 0 | 1 |
|---|
Yesterday: 4 of 4 picks won. See every pick
Today's picks
Today, Saturday 10 October
Times shown in your time (EDT)
Showing the top 20 of 26 picks, in kick-off order. 6 more are under Show all.Updating…
Starting in 3 to 6 hours (12)
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 71%
Average price 1.32
GENGenoaLLWDLFIOFiorentinaDWWLL
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· Italy - Serie A
Each of Fiorentina's last 5 league matches had two or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
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AUGFC AugsburgDLDWWBMUBayern MünchenWWWD
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Average price 1.10
HOF1899 HoffenheimLLWLLHAMHamburger SVWWLL
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 87%
Average price 1.07
PADSC Paderborn 07WWLLDVSTVfB StuttgartWWLL
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 82%
Average price 1.13
UBEUnion BerlinWLLLDELVSV ElversbergLDLW
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 84%
Average price 1.11
FMAFSV Mainz 05WWLWDBLEBayer LeverkusenWWDW
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 83%
Average price 1.13
CHEChelseaLDWLWBOUBournemouthLWDW
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 79%
Average price 1.18
MIDMiddlesbroughDDWLWWOLWolvesWLWD
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 75%
Average price 1.25
PREPrestonDLLWLMILMillwallDDLL
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 86%
Average price 1.08
RANRangersWWWWWKILKilmarnockDWDD
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 75%
Average price 1.25
ALAAlavesDLLWWAMAAtletico MadridWWWL
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 85%
Average price 1.09
GAEGO Ahead EaglesDDDLWSROSparta RotterdamLLDL
Starting later (8)
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 86%
Average price 1.08
INTInterWDWLWPARParmaWLD
W
· Germany - Bundesliga
Each of FC Augsburg's last 4 league matches had three or more goals.
L
· Germany - Bundesliga
Each of 1899 Hoffenheim's last 4 league matches had three or more goals.
W
· Germany - Bundesliga
3 of VfB Stuttgart's last 4 league matches had two or more goals.
W
· Germany - Bundesliga
Each of Union Berlin's last 4 league matches had three or more goals.
L
· Germany - Bundesliga
Each of Bayer Leverkusen's last 4 league matches had two or more goals.
D
· England - Premier League
Each of Chelsea's last 5 league matches had three or more goals.
L
· England - Championship
Each of Middlesbrough's last 4 home matches had three or more goals.
W
· England - Championship
Each of Millwall's last 8 league matches had two or more goals.
L
· Scotland - Premiership
The model expects Rangers to score 1.9 goals and Kilmarnock 0.9.
L
· Spain - La Liga
Each of Atletico Madrid's last 7 league matches had two or more goals.
D
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
Each of GO Ahead Eagles's last 7 league matches had two or more goals.
L
L
· Italy - Serie A
Each of Parma's last 4 league matches had two or more goals.
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 88%
Average price 1.05
RLERB LeipzigLWLLWEFREintracht FrankfurtWDWLD
Last 5 games
· Germany - Bundesliga
Each of RB Leipzig's last 4 league matches had two or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 83%
Average price 1.12
MANManchester UnitedDLLWDTOTTottenhamLLDDL
Last 5 games
· England - Premier League
4 of Manchester United's last 5 league matches had two or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 85%
Average price 1.10
FEYFeyenoordWWLWDAALAZ AlkmaarWLDWW
Last 5 games
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
Each of Feyenoord's last 6 league matches had three or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 74%
Average price 1.25
MARMaritimoDLLLDPORFC PortoWWWLW
Last 5 games
· Portugal - Primeira Liga
Each of FC Porto's last 7 league matches had two or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 86%
Average price 1.09
FSIFortuna SittardWWLWWTWETwenteWWWWD
Last 5 games
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
Each of Fortuna Sittard's last 3 home matches had two or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 88%
Average price 1.06
AJAAjaxDWWLWNNINEC NijmegenDLLDL
Last 5 games
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
Each of Ajax's last 7 league matches had two or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 88%
Average price 1.05
RMAReal MadridLWWWLVILVillarrealWWLLL
Last 5 games
· Spain - La Liga
Each of Villarreal's last 4 league matches had three or more goals.
See the full analysis