Tamworth vs Barrow prediction, Saturday 10 October: chances and analysisBack to today's picks
· England - National League
Tamworth v BarrowHomevAwayHomevAway
No pick for this match: no market passed our rules.
Our model's chances
Chances of each result: Tamworth win 30%, Draw 24%, Barrow win 46%.
Tamworth host Barrow in the National League, England.
Our model gives Tamworth a 30% chance of winning, a draw 24% and Barrow 46%.
The model expects Tamworth to score 1.3 goals and Barrow 1.8.
Tamworth have won 3 of their last 6 league matches; Barrow have won 4 of 6.
Top factors
- Tamworth sit 18th with 14 points; Barrow sit 9th with 18 points.
- Tamworth have taken 9 points from their last 5 matches; Barrow 12 from 5.
- At home, Tamworth have taken 6 points from their last 2; away, Barrow have taken 4 from their last 3.
Chances and prices are from our nightly scan before the match. Nothing after that is used.
Key numbers, the table, form, head to head and more.
Our model's chance for each market, with the bookmakers' average price.
- Tamworth win
- 30% · price 2.63
Barrow win46% · price 2.34 Over 1.5 goals79% · price 1.16 Over 2.5 goals58% · price 1.60 Both teams score55% · price 1.50 Expected goals (our model)Tamworth 1.3, Barrow 1.8 Context onlyTable position isn't in the model.
Where the teams sit in the National League, before kick-off.
Tamworth sit 18th with 14 points; Barrow sit 9th with 18. A gap of 13 in goal difference, in favour of Barrow.
Stored before 7 October 2026: wins, draws, losses and goals were not kept.
- 8th Kidderminster Harriers19 points from 12 games · goal difference +3
- 9th Barrow18 points from 12 games · goal difference +5
- 10th Aldershot Town18 points from 12 games · goal difference +4
- 17th Eastleigh15 points from 12 games · goal difference -4
- 18th Tamworth14 points from 12 games · goal difference -8
- 19th Wealdstone12 points from 12 games · goal difference -1
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|
| 8 | Kidderminster Harriers | 12 | – | – | – | – | – | +3 | 19 |
| 9 | Barrow | 12 | – | – | – | – | – | +5 | 18 |
| 10 | Aldershot Town | 12 | – | – | – | – | – | +4 | 18 |
| 17 | Eastleigh | 12 | – | – | – | – | – | -4 | 15 |
| 18 | Tamworth | 12 | – | – | – | – | – | -8 | 14 |
| 19 | Wealdstone | 12 | – | – | – | – | – | -1 |
Show full tableShow less
- 1st Boreham Wood35 points from 13 games · goal difference +21
- 2nd Harrogate Town25 points from 12 games · goal difference +11
- 3rd Southend24 points from 12 games · goal difference +11
- 4th Yeovil Town22 points from 12 games · goal difference +11
- 5th Worthing21 points from 12 games · goal difference +4
- 6th Altrincham21 points from 12 games · goal difference -1
- 7th AFC Fylde20 points from 12 games · goal difference +4
- 8th Kidderminster Harriers19 points from 12 games · goal difference +3
- 9th Barrow18 points from 12 games · goal difference +5
- 10th Aldershot Town18 points from 12 games · goal difference +4
- 11th Sutton Utd
Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.
Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
WWonat Hartlepool3 Oct 2026 · National League · Away1–0
WWonv Sutton Utd30 Sept 2026 · National League · Home2–0
LLostat Aldershot Town26 Sept 2026 · National League · Away1–5
WWonv Wealdstone19 Sept 2026 · National League · Home2–1
LLostat Southend15 Sept 2026 · National League · Away1–3
Show last 6 matchesShowing 6
LLostat Harrogate Town12 Sept 2026 · National League · Away1–3
Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.
Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
WWonv Wealdstone3 Oct 2026 · National League · Home2–1
WWonv Scunthorpe29 Sept 2026 · National League · Home3–0
WWonat Southend26 Sept 2026 · National League · Away4–2
WWonv Aldershot Town19 Sept 2026 · National League · Home1–0
LLostat Solihull Moors15 Sept 2026 · National League · Away0–1
Show last 6 matchesShowing 6
DDrewat Worthing12 Sept 2026 · National League · Away2–2
In the modelThe model rates each team's home and away records separately.
The last 5 and 10 matches, then Tamworth at home and Barrow away only: a home fixture is read from home matches where there are enough.
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
Tamworth
- Last 5 (5)3 won, 0 drawn, 2 lost · 7 scored, 9 conceded · 1.80 points a game · 2 clean sheets · failed to score in 0
- Last 10 (6)3 won, 0 drawn, 3 lost · 8 scored, 12 conceded · 1.50 points a game · 2 clean sheets · failed to score in 0
- Home, last 5 (2)2 won, 0 drawn, 0 lost · 4 scored, 1 conceded · 3.00 points a game · 1 clean sheet · failed to score in 0
- Home, last 10 (2)2 won, 0 drawn, 0 lost · 4 scored, 1 conceded · 3.00 points a game · 1 clean sheet · failed to score in 0
Tamworth| Sample | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | CS | FTS |
|---|
| Last 5 (5) | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 9 | -2 | 9 | 1.80 | 2 | 0 |
|---|
| Last 10 (6) | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 12 | -4 | 9 | 1.50 | 2 | 0 |
|---|
| Home, last 5 (2) | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | +3 | 6 | 3.00 | 1 | 0 |
|---|
| Home, last 10 (2) | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | +3 | 6 | 3.00 | 1 | 0 |
|---|
Barrow
- Last 5 (5)4 won, 0 drawn, 1 lost · 10 scored, 4 conceded · 2.40 points a game · 2 clean sheets · failed to score in 1
- Last 10 (6)4 won, 1 drawn, 1 lost · 12 scored, 6 conceded · 2.17 points a game · 2 clean sheets · failed to score in 1
- Away, last 5 (3)1 won, 1 drawn, 1 lost · 6 scored, 5 conceded · 1.33 points a game · 0 clean sheets · failed to score in 1
- Away, last 10 (3)1 won, 1 drawn, 1 lost · 6 scored, 5 conceded · 1.33 points a game · 0 clean sheets · failed to score in 1
Barrow| Sample | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | CS | FTS |
|---|
| Last 5 (5) | 5 | 4 |
|---|
Tamworth at home: Insufficient historical data. Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
Barrow away: Insufficient historical data. Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
Context onlyShown for context. The model's own ratings come from goals scored and conceded this season and last.
| Measure | Tamworth | Barrow |
|---|
| League position | 18th | 9th |
|---|
| Points per game | 1.17 | 1.50 |
|---|
| Attack: goals per game (last 6 and 6) | 1.33 | 2.00 |
|---|
| Defence: conceded per game (last 6 and 6) | 2.00 | 1.00 |
|---|
| Clean sheets | 2 | 2 |
|---|
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
In the modelMissing players move the model's expected goals, chiefly a missing top scorer.
Players out or doubtful, as reported the night before.
Yesterday: 4 of 4 picks won. See every pick
Today's picks
Today, Saturday 10 October
Times shown in your time (EDT)
Showing the top 20 of 26 picks, in kick-off order. 6 more are under Show all.Updating…
Starting in 3 to 6 hours (12)
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 71%
Average price 1.32
GENGenoaLLWDLFIOFiorentinaDWW
18 points from 13 games · goal difference -4
12th AFC Hornchurch18 points from 12 games · goal difference -613th FC Halifax Town17 points from 12 games · goal difference +414th Carlisle16 points from 12 games · goal difference +315th Woking15 points from 12 games · goal difference +116th Forest Green15 points from 11 games · goal difference -117th Eastleigh15 points from 12 games · goal difference -418th Tamworth14 points from 12 games · goal difference -819th Wealdstone12 points from 12 games · goal difference -120th Boston United12 points from 12 games · goal difference -721st Scunthorpe10 points from 11 games · goal difference -422nd Hartlepool9 points from 12 games · goal difference -923rd Solihull Moors7 points from 12 games · goal difference -1724th Gateshead4 points from 12 games · goal difference -20| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|
| 1 | Boreham Wood | 13 | – | – | – | – | – | +21 | 35 |
| 2 | Harrogate Town | 12 | – | – | – | – | – | +11 | 25 |
| 3 | Southend | 12 | – | – | – | – | – | +11 | 24 |
| 4 | Yeovil Town | 12 | – | – | – | – | – | +11 | 22 |
| 5 | Worthing | 12 | – | – | – | – | – | +4 | 21 |
| 6 | Altrincham | 12 | – | – | – | – | – | -1 | 21 |
| 7 | AFC Fylde | 12 | – | – | – | – | – | +4 | 20 |
| 8 | Kidderminster Harriers | 12 | – | – | – | – | – | +3 | 19 |
| 9 | Barrow | 12 | – | – | – | – | – | +5 | 18 |
| 10 | Aldershot Town | 12 | – | – | – | – | – | +4 | 18 |
| 11 | Sutton Utd | 13 | – | – | – | – | – | -4 | 18 |
| 12 | AFC Hornchurch | 12 | – | – | – | – | – | -6 | 18 |
| 13 | FC Halifax Town | 12 | – | – | – | – | – | +4 | 17 |
| 14 | Carlisle | 12 | – | – | – | – | – | +3 | 16 |
| 15 | Woking | 12 | – | – | – | – | – | +1 | 15 |
| 16 | Forest Green | 11 | – | – | – | – | – | -1 | 15 |
| 17 | Eastleigh | 12 | – | – | – | – | – | -4 | 15 |
| 18 | Tamworth | 12 | – | – | – | – | – | -8 | 14 |
| 19 | Wealdstone | 12 | – | – | – | – | – | -1 | 12 |
| 20 | Boston United | 12 | – | – | – | – | – | -7 | 12 |
| 21 | Scunthorpe | 11 | – | – | – | – | – | -4 | 10 |
| 22 | Hartlepool | 12 | – | – | – | – | – | -9 | 9 |
| 23 | Solihull Moors | 12 | – | – | – | – | – | -17 | 7 |
| 24 | Gateshead | 12 | – | – | – | – | – | -20 | 4 |
| Last 10 (6) | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 6 | +6 | 13 | 2.17 | 2 | 1 |
|---|
| Away, last 5 (3) | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 5 | +1 | 4 | 1.33 | 0 | 1 |
|---|
| Away, last 10 (3) | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 5 | +1 | 4 | 1.33 | 0 | 1 |
|---|
L
L
· Italy - Serie A
Each of Fiorentina's last 5 league matches had two or more goals.
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 93%
Average price 1.03
AUGFC AugsburgDLDWWBMUBayern MünchenWWWDW
Last 5 games
· Germany - Bundesliga
Each of FC Augsburg's last 4 league matches had three or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 85%
Average price 1.10
HOF1899 HoffenheimLLWLLHAMHamburger SVWWLLL
Last 5 games
· Germany - Bundesliga
Each of 1899 Hoffenheim's last 4 league matches had three or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 87%
Average price 1.07
PADSC Paderborn 07WWLLDVSTVfB StuttgartWWLLW
Last 5 games
· Germany - Bundesliga
3 of VfB Stuttgart's last 4 league matches had two or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 82%
Average price 1.13
UBEUnion BerlinWLLLDELVSV ElversbergLDLWW
Last 5 games
· Germany - Bundesliga
Each of Union Berlin's last 4 league matches had three or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 84%
Average price 1.11
FMAFSV Mainz 05WWLWDBLEBayer LeverkusenWWDWL
Last 5 games
· Germany - Bundesliga
Each of Bayer Leverkusen's last 4 league matches had two or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 83%
Average price 1.13
CHEChelseaLDWLWBOUBournemouthLWDWD
Last 5 games
· England - Premier League
Each of Chelsea's last 5 league matches had three or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 79%
Average price 1.18
MIDMiddlesbroughDDWLWWOLWolvesWLWDL
Last 5 games
· England - Championship
Each of Middlesbrough's last 4 home matches had three or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 75%
Average price 1.25
PREPrestonDLLWLMILMillwallDDLLW
Last 5 games
· England - Championship
Each of Millwall's last 8 league matches had two or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 86%
Average price 1.08
RANRangersWWWWWKILKilmarnockDWDDL
Last 5 games
· Scotland - Premiership
The model expects Rangers to score 1.9 goals and Kilmarnock 0.9.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 75%
Average price 1.25
ALAAlavesDLLWWAMAAtletico MadridWWWLL
Last 5 games
· Spain - La Liga
Each of Atletico Madrid's last 7 league matches had two or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 85%
Average price 1.09
GAEGO Ahead EaglesDDDLWSROSparta RotterdamLLDLD
Last 5 games
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
Each of GO Ahead Eagles's last 7 league matches had two or more goals.
See the full analysisStarting later (8)
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 86%
Average price 1.08
INTInterWDWLWPARParmaWLDLL
Last 5 games
· Italy - Serie A
Each of Parma's last 4 league matches had two or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 88%
Average price 1.05
RLERB LeipzigLWLLWEFREintracht FrankfurtWDWL
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 83%
Average price 1.12
MANManchester UnitedDLLWDTOTTottenhamLLDD
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 85%
Average price 1.10
FEYFeyenoordWWLWDAALAZ AlkmaarWLDW
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 74%
Average price 1.25
MARMaritimoDLLLDPORFC PortoWWWL
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 86%
Average price 1.09
FSIFortuna SittardWWLWWTWETwenteWWWW
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 88%
Average price 1.06
AJAAjaxDWWLWNNINEC NijmegenDLLD
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 88%
Average price 1.05
RMAReal MadridLWWWLVILVillarrealWWLL
D
· Germany - Bundesliga
Each of RB Leipzig's last 4 league matches had two or more goals.
L
· England - Premier League
4 of Manchester United's last 5 league matches had two or more goals.
W
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
Each of Feyenoord's last 6 league matches had three or more goals.
W
· Portugal - Primeira Liga
Each of FC Porto's last 7 league matches had two or more goals.
D
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
Each of Fortuna Sittard's last 3 home matches had two or more goals.
L
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
Each of Ajax's last 7 league matches had two or more goals.
L
· Spain - La Liga
Each of Villarreal's last 4 league matches had three or more goals.