Tigres UANL vs Toluca prediction, Saturday 10 October: chances and analysisBack to today's picks
· Mexico - Liga MX
Tigres UANL v TolucaHomevAwayHomevAway
Final score Tigres UANL 3, Toluca 2.
No pick for this match: no market passed our rules.
Our model's chances
Chances of each result: Tigres UANL win 38%, Draw 27%, Toluca win 35%.
Tigres UANL host Toluca in the Liga MX, Mexico.
Our model gives Tigres UANL a 38% chance of winning, a draw 27% and Toluca 35%.
The model expects Tigres UANL to score 1.3 goals and Toluca 1.3.
Tigres UANL have won 2 of their last 6 league matches; Toluca have won 4 of 6.
Top factors
- Tigres UANL sit 15th with 10 points; Toluca sit 1st with 20 points.
- Tigres UANL have taken 6 points from their last 5 matches; Toluca 10 from 5.
- At home, Tigres UANL have taken 7 points from their last 3; away, Toluca have taken 7 from their last 3.
Chances and prices are from our nightly scan before the match. Nothing after that is used.
Key numbers, the table, form, head to head and more.
Our model's chance for each market, with the bookmakers' average price.
- Tigres UANL win
- 38% · price 2.84
Toluca win35% · price 2.31 Over 1.5 goals74% · price 1.20 Over 2.5 goals50% · price 1.70 Both teams score52% · price 1.56 Expected goals (our model)Tigres UANL 1.3, Toluca 1.3 Context onlyTable position isn't in the model.
Where the teams sit in the Liga MX, before kick-off.
Tigres UANL sit 15th with 10 points; Toluca sit 1st with 20. A gap of 14 in goal difference, in favour of Toluca.
Stored before 7 October 2026: wins, draws, losses and goals were not kept.
- 1st Toluca20 points from 10 games · goal difference +11
- 2nd Club America20 points from 9 games · goal difference +11
- 14th Atlante FC11 points from 10 games · goal difference -3
- 15th Tigres UANL10 points from 10 games · goal difference -3
- 16th Santos Laguna10 points from 10 games · goal difference -5
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|
| 1 | Toluca | 10 | – | – | – | – | – | +11 | 20 |
| 2 | Club America | 9 | – | – | – | – | – | +11 | 20 |
| 14 | Atlante FC | 10 | – | – | – | – | – | -3 | 11 |
| 15 | Tigres UANL | 10 | – | – | – | – | – | -3 | 10 |
| 16 | Santos Laguna | 10 | – | – | – | – | – | -5 | 10 |
Show full tableShow less
- 1st Toluca20 points from 10 games · goal difference +11
- 2nd Club America20 points from 9 games · goal difference +11
- 3rd Guadalajara Chivas18 points from 10 games · goal difference +7
- 4th Club Queretaro17 points from 9 games · goal difference +5
- 5th Leon17 points from 10 games · goal difference +3
- 6th Atlas17 points from 10 games · goal difference -1
- 7th Cruz Azul16 points from 10 games · goal difference +1
- 8th Club Tijuana14 points from 9 games · goal difference +1
- 9th Puebla14 points from 10 games · goal difference -1
- 10th Monterrey13 points from 9 games · goal difference +2
- 11th CF Pachuca12 points from 10 games · goal difference +4
Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.
Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
WWonv Puebla27 Sept 2026 · Liga MX · Home1–0
LLostat FC Juarez19 Sept 2026 · Liga MX · Away0–2
DDrewat Monterrey13 Sept 2026 · Liga MX · Away0–0
DDrewv Necaxa6 Sept 2026 · Liga MX · Home1–1
DDrewat Santos Laguna30 Aug 2026 · Liga MX · Away0–0
Show last 6 matchesShowing 6
WWonv Atlante FC22 Aug 2026 · Liga MX · Home2–0
Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.
Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
DDrewat Cruz Azul26 Sept 2026 · Liga MX · Away3–3
LLostv Santos Laguna21 Sept 2026 · Liga MX · Home2–3
WWonat Puebla16 Sept 2026 · Liga MX · Away1–0
WWonv Atlas12 Sept 2026 · Liga MX · Home5–2
WWonv FC Juarez31 Aug 2026 · Liga MX · Home4–0
Show last 6 matchesShowing 6
WWonat Club Queretaro22 Aug 2026 · Liga MX · Away2–1
In the modelThe model rates each team's home and away records separately.
The last 5 and 10 matches, then Tigres UANL at home and Toluca away only: a home fixture is read from home matches where there are enough.
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
Tigres UANL
- Last 5 (5)1 won, 3 drawn, 1 lost · 2 scored, 3 conceded · 1.20 points a game · 3 clean sheets · failed to score in 3
- Last 10 (6)2 won, 3 drawn, 1 lost · 4 scored, 3 conceded · 1.50 points a game · 4 clean sheets · failed to score in 3
- Home, last 5 (3)2 won, 1 drawn, 0 lost · 4 scored, 1 conceded · 2.33 points a game · 2 clean sheets · failed to score in 0
- Home, last 10 (3)2 won, 1 drawn, 0 lost · 4 scored, 1 conceded · 2.33 points a game · 2 clean sheets · failed to score in 0
Tigres UANL| Sample | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | CS | FTS |
|---|
| Last 5 (5) | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 6 | 1.20 | 3 | 3 |
|---|
| Last 10 (6) | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 3 | +1 | 9 | 1.50 | 4 | 3 |
|---|
| Home, last 5 (3) | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 1 | +3 | 7 | 2.33 | 2 | 0 |
|---|
| Home, last 10 (3) | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 1 | +3 | 7 | 2.33 | 2 | 0 |
|---|
Toluca
- Last 5 (5)3 won, 1 drawn, 1 lost · 15 scored, 8 conceded · 2.00 points a game · 2 clean sheets · failed to score in 0
- Last 10 (6)4 won, 1 drawn, 1 lost · 17 scored, 9 conceded · 2.17 points a game · 2 clean sheets · failed to score in 0
- Away, last 5 (3)2 won, 1 drawn, 0 lost · 6 scored, 4 conceded · 2.33 points a game · 1 clean sheet · failed to score in 0
- Away, last 10 (3)2 won, 1 drawn, 0 lost · 6 scored, 4 conceded · 2.33 points a game · 1 clean sheet · failed to score in 0
Toluca| Sample | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | CS | FTS |
|---|
| Last 5 (5) | 5 | 3 |
|---|
Tigres UANL at home: Insufficient historical data. Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
Toluca away: Insufficient historical data. Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
Context onlyShown for context. The model's own ratings come from goals scored and conceded this season and last.
| Measure | Tigres UANL | Toluca |
|---|
| League position | 15th | 1st |
|---|
| Points per game | 1.00 | 2.00 |
|---|
| Attack: goals per game (last 6 and 6) | 0.67 | 2.83 |
|---|
| Defence: conceded per game (last 6 and 6) | 0.50 | 1.50 |
|---|
| Clean sheets | 4 | 2 |
|---|
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
In the modelMissing players move the model's expected goals, chiefly a missing top scorer.
Players out or doubtful, as reported the night before.
Tigres UANL
None reported.
Yesterday: 4 of 4 picks won. See every pick
Today's picks
Today, Saturday 10 October
Times shown in your time (EDT)
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|
| 1 | Toluca | 10 | – | – | – | – | – | +11 | 20 |
| 2 | Club America | 9 | – | – | – | – | – | +11 | 20 |
| 3 | Guadalajara Chivas | 10 | – | – | – | – | – | +7 | 18 |
| 4 | Club Queretaro | 9 | – | – | – | – | – | +5 | 17 |
| 5 | Leon | 10 | – | – | – | – | – | +3 | 17 |
| 6 | Atlas | 10 | – | – | – | – | – | -1 | 17 |
| 7 | Cruz Azul | 10 | – | – | – | – | – | +1 | 16 |
| 8 | Club Tijuana | 9 | – | – | – | – | – | +1 | 14 |
| 9 | Puebla | 10 | – | – | – | – | – | -1 | 14 |
| 10 | Monterrey | 9 | – | – | – | – | – | +2 | 13 |
| 11 | CF Pachuca | 10 | – | – | – | – | – | +4 | 12 |
| 12 | U.N.A.M. - Pumas | 10 | – | – | – | – | – | -2 | 12 |
| 13 | Atletico San Luis | 10 | – | – | – | – | – | -4 | 12 |
| 14 | Atlante FC | 10 | – | – | – | – | – | -3 | 11 |
| 15 | Tigres UANL | 10 | – | – | – | – | – | -3 | 10 |
| 16 | Santos Laguna | 10 | – | – | – | – | – | -5 | 10 |
| 17 | Necaxa | 10 | – | – | – | – | – | -8 | 8 |
| 18 | FC Juarez | 10 | – | – | – | – | – | -18 | 3 |
| Last 10 (6) | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 17 | 9 | +8 | 13 | 2.17 | 2 | 0 |
|---|
| Away, last 5 (3) | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 4 | +2 | 7 | 2.33 | 1 | 0 |
|---|
| Away, last 10 (3) | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 4 | +2 | 7 | 2.33 | 1 | 0 |
|---|
Showing the top 20 of 26 picks, in kick-off order. 6 more are under Show all.Updating…
Starting in 3 to 6 hours (12)
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 71%
Average price 1.32
GENGenoaLLWDLFIOFiorentinaDWWLL
Last 5 games
· Italy - Serie A
Each of Fiorentina's last 5 league matches had two or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 93%
Average price 1.03
AUGFC AugsburgDLDWWBMUBayern MünchenWWWD
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 85%
Average price 1.10
HOF1899 HoffenheimLLWLLHAMHamburger SVWWLL
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 87%
Average price 1.07
PADSC Paderborn 07WWLLDVSTVfB StuttgartWWLL
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 82%
Average price 1.13
UBEUnion BerlinWLLLDELVSV ElversbergLDLW
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 84%
Average price 1.11
FMAFSV Mainz 05WWLWDBLEBayer LeverkusenWWDW
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 83%
Average price 1.13
CHEChelseaLDWLWBOUBournemouthLWDW
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 79%
Average price 1.18
MIDMiddlesbroughDDWLWWOLWolvesWLWD
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 75%
Average price 1.25
PREPrestonDLLWLMILMillwallDDLL
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 86%
Average price 1.08
RANRangersWWWWWKILKilmarnockDWDD
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 75%
Average price 1.25
ALAAlavesDLLWWAMAAtletico MadridWWWL
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 85%
Average price 1.09
GAEGO Ahead EaglesDDDLWSROSparta RotterdamLLDL
Starting later (8)
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 86%
Average price 1.08
INTInterWDWLWPARParmaWLD
W
· Germany - Bundesliga
Each of FC Augsburg's last 4 league matches had three or more goals.
L
· Germany - Bundesliga
Each of 1899 Hoffenheim's last 4 league matches had three or more goals.
W
· Germany - Bundesliga
3 of VfB Stuttgart's last 4 league matches had two or more goals.
W
· Germany - Bundesliga
Each of Union Berlin's last 4 league matches had three or more goals.
L
· Germany - Bundesliga
Each of Bayer Leverkusen's last 4 league matches had two or more goals.
D
· England - Premier League
Each of Chelsea's last 5 league matches had three or more goals.
L
· England - Championship
Each of Middlesbrough's last 4 home matches had three or more goals.
W
· England - Championship
Each of Millwall's last 8 league matches had two or more goals.
L
· Scotland - Premiership
The model expects Rangers to score 1.9 goals and Kilmarnock 0.9.
L
· Spain - La Liga
Each of Atletico Madrid's last 7 league matches had two or more goals.
D
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
Each of GO Ahead Eagles's last 7 league matches had two or more goals.
L
L
· Italy - Serie A
Each of Parma's last 4 league matches had two or more goals.
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 88%
Average price 1.05
RLERB LeipzigLWLLWEFREintracht FrankfurtWDWLD
Last 5 games
· Germany - Bundesliga
Each of RB Leipzig's last 4 league matches had two or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 83%
Average price 1.12
MANManchester UnitedDLLWDTOTTottenhamLLDDL
Last 5 games
· England - Premier League
4 of Manchester United's last 5 league matches had two or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 85%
Average price 1.10
FEYFeyenoordWWLWDAALAZ AlkmaarWLDWW
Last 5 games
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
Each of Feyenoord's last 6 league matches had three or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 74%
Average price 1.25
MARMaritimoDLLLDPORFC PortoWWWLW
Last 5 games
· Portugal - Primeira Liga
Each of FC Porto's last 7 league matches had two or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 86%
Average price 1.09
FSIFortuna SittardWWLWWTWETwenteWWWWD
Last 5 games
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
Each of Fortuna Sittard's last 3 home matches had two or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 88%
Average price 1.06
AJAAjaxDWWLWNNINEC NijmegenDLLDL
Last 5 games
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
Each of Ajax's last 7 league matches had two or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 88%
Average price 1.05
RMAReal MadridLWWWLVILVillarrealWWLLL
Last 5 games
· Spain - La Liga
Each of Villarreal's last 4 league matches had three or more goals.
See the full analysis