Tondela vs Torreense prediction, Saturday 10 October: chances and analysisBack to today's picks
· Portugal - Segunda Liga
Tondela v TorreenseHomevAwayHomevAway
No pick for this match: no market passed our rules.
Our model's chances
Chances of each result: Tondela win 40%, Draw 29%, Torreense win 32%.
Tondela host Torreense in the Segunda Liga, Portugal.
Our model gives Tondela a 40% chance of winning, a draw 29% and Torreense 32%.
The model expects Tondela to score 1.2 goals and Torreense 1.1.
Tondela have won 3 of their last 6 league matches; Torreense have won 1 of 6.
Top factors
- Tondela sit 10th with 9 points; Torreense sit 14th with 6 points.
- Tondela have taken 6 points from their last 5 matches; Torreense 6 from 5.
- At home, Tondela have taken 6 points from their last 3; away, Torreense have taken 4 from their last 3.
Chances and prices are from our nightly scan before the match. Nothing after that is used.
Key numbers, the table, form, head to head and more.
Our model's chance for each market, with the bookmakers' average price.
- Tondela win
- 40% · price 2.29
Yesterday: 4 of 4 picks won. See every pick
Today's picks
Today, Saturday 10 October
Times shown in your time (EDT)
Torreense win32% · price 3.02 Over 1.5 goals70% · price 1.35 Over 2.5 goals45% · price 2.12 Both teams score50% · price 1.83 Expected goals (our model)Tondela 1.2, Torreense 1.1 Context onlyTable position isn't in the model.
Where the teams sit in the Segunda Liga, before kick-off.
Tondela sit 10th with 9 points; Torreense sit 14th with 6. A gap of 3 in goal difference, in favour of Tondela.
Stored before 7 October 2026: wins, draws, losses and goals were not kept.
- 9th AVS9 points from 7 games · goal difference +1
- 10th Tondela9 points from 6 games · goal difference +1
- 11th Academica9 points from 6 games · goal difference -2
- 13th Felgueiras 19326 points from 6 games · goal difference -1
- 14th Torreense6 points from 6 games · goal difference -2
- 15th Amarante5 points from 6 games · goal difference -3
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|
| 9 | AVS | 7 | – | – | – | – | – | +1 | 9 |
| 10 | Tondela | 6 | – | – | – | – | – | +1 | 9 |
| 11 | Academica | 6 | – | – | – | – | – | -2 | 9 |
| 13 | Felgueiras 1932 | 6 | – | – | – | – | – | -1 | 6 |
| 14 | Torreense | 6 | – | – | – | – | – | -2 | 6 |
| 15 | Amarante | 6 | – | – | – | – | – | -3 | 5 |
Show full tableShow less
- 1st Lusitânia Lourosa16 points from 6 games · goal difference +7
- 2nd Penafiel13 points from 7 games · goal difference +7
- 3rd Sporting CP B12 points from 6 games · goal difference +2
- 4th Farense11 points from 6 games · goal difference +6
- 5th Vizela11 points from 6 games · goal difference +3
- 6th União de Leiria10 points from 6 games · goal difference +3
- 7th Leixoes10 points from 6 games · goal difference +2
- 8th Benfica B10 points from 6 games · goal difference +2
- 9th AVS9 points from 7 games · goal difference +1
- 10th Tondela9 points from 6 games · goal difference +1
- 11th Academica9 points from 6 games · goal difference -2
Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.
Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
WWonat Portimonense12 Sept 2026 · Segunda Liga · Away2–0
WWonv FC Porto B5 Sept 2026 · Segunda Liga · Home3–0
LLostat União de Leiria28 Aug 2026 · Segunda Liga · Away0–2
LLostv Academica21 Aug 2026 · Segunda Liga · Home0–2
LLostat Leixoes16 Aug 2026 · Segunda Liga · Away0–1
Show last 6 matchesShowing 6
WWonv Amarante8 Aug 2026 · Segunda Liga · Home2–1
Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.
Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
DDrewv Leixoes11 Sept 2026 · Segunda Liga · Home0–0
WWonat Benfica B5 Sept 2026 · Segunda Liga · Away2–0
LLostv Vizela29 Aug 2026 · Segunda Liga · Home0–3
DDrewat Lusitânia Lourosa22 Aug 2026 · Segunda Liga · Away2–2
DDrewv Penafiel15 Aug 2026 · Segunda Liga · Home2–2
Show last 6 matchesShowing 6
LLostat Farense9 Aug 2026 · Segunda Liga · Away1–2
In the modelThe model rates each team's home and away records separately.
The last 5 and 10 matches, then Tondela at home and Torreense away only: a home fixture is read from home matches where there are enough.
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
Tondela
- Last 5 (5)2 won, 0 drawn, 3 lost · 5 scored, 5 conceded · 1.20 points a game · 2 clean sheets · failed to score in 3
- Last 10 (6)3 won, 0 drawn, 3 lost · 7 scored, 6 conceded · 1.50 points a game · 2 clean sheets · failed to score in 3
- Home, last 5 (3)2 won, 0 drawn, 1 lost · 5 scored, 3 conceded · 2.00 points a game · 1 clean sheet · failed to score in 1
- Home, last 10 (3)2 won, 0 drawn, 1 lost · 5 scored, 3 conceded · 2.00 points a game · 1 clean sheet · failed to score in 1
Tondela| Sample | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | CS | FTS |
|---|
| Last 5 (5) | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 6 | 1.20 | 2 | 3 |
|---|
| Last 10 (6) | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 6 | +1 | 9 | 1.50 | 2 | 3 |
|---|
| Home, last 5 (3) | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 3 | +2 | 6 | 2.00 | 1 | 1 |
|---|
| Home, last 10 (3) | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 3 | +2 | 6 | 2.00 | 1 | 1 |
|---|
Torreense
- Last 5 (5)1 won, 3 drawn, 1 lost · 6 scored, 7 conceded · 1.20 points a game · 2 clean sheets · failed to score in 2
- Last 10 (6)1 won, 3 drawn, 2 lost · 7 scored, 9 conceded · 1.00 points a game · 2 clean sheets · failed to score in 2
- Away, last 5 (3)1 won, 1 drawn, 1 lost · 5 scored, 4 conceded · 1.33 points a game · 1 clean sheet · failed to score in 0
- Away, last 10 (3)1 won, 1 drawn, 1 lost · 5 scored, 4 conceded · 1.33 points a game · 1 clean sheet · failed to score in 0
Torreense| Sample | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | CS | FTS |
|---|
| Last 5 (5) | 5 | 1 |
|---|
Tondela at home: Insufficient historical data. Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
Torreense away: Insufficient historical data. Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
Context onlyShown for context. The model's own ratings come from goals scored and conceded this season and last.
| Measure | Tondela | Torreense |
|---|
| League position | 10th | 14th |
|---|
| Points per game | 1.50 | 1.00 |
|---|
| Attack: goals per game (last 6 and 6) | 1.17 | 1.17 |
|---|
| Defence: conceded per game (last 6 and 6) | 1.00 | 1.50 |
|---|
| Clean sheets | 2 | 2 |
|---|
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
In the modelMissing players move the model's expected goals, chiefly a missing top scorer.
Players out or doubtful, as reported the night before.
Showing the top 20 of 26 picks, in kick-off order. 6 more are under Show all.Updating…
Starting in 3 to 6 hours (12)
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 71%
Average price 1.32
GENGenoaLLWDLFIOFiorentinaDWWLL
Last 5 games
· Italy - Serie A
Each of Fiorentina's last 5 league matches had two or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 93%
Average price 1.03
AUGFC AugsburgDLDWWBMUBayern MünchenWWWD
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 85%
Average price 1.10
HOF1899 HoffenheimLLWLLHAMHamburger SVWWLL
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 87%
Average price 1.07
PADSC Paderborn 07WWLLDVSTVfB StuttgartWWLL
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 82%
Average price 1.13
UBEUnion BerlinWLLLDELVSV ElversbergLDLW
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 84%
Average price 1.11
FMAFSV Mainz 05WWLWDBLEBayer LeverkusenWWDW
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 83%
Average price 1.13
CHEChelseaLDWLWBOUBournemouthLWDW
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 79%
Average price 1.18
MIDMiddlesbroughDDWLWWOLWolvesWLWD
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 75%
Average price 1.25
PREPrestonDLLWLMILMillwallDDLL
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 86%
Average price 1.08
RANRangersWWWWWKILKilmarnockDWDD
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 75%
Average price 1.25
ALAAlavesDLLWWAMAAtletico MadridWWWL
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 85%
Average price 1.09
GAEGO Ahead EaglesDDDLWSROSparta RotterdamLLDL
Starting later (8)
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 86%
Average price 1.08
INTInterWDWLWPARParmaWLD
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|
| 1 | Lusitânia Lourosa | 6 | – | – | – | – | – | +7 | 16 |
| 2 | Penafiel | 7 | – | – | – | – | – | +7 | 13 |
| 3 | Sporting CP B | 6 | – | – | – | – | – | +2 | 12 |
| 4 | Farense | 6 | – | – | – | – | – | +6 | 11 |
| 5 | Vizela | 6 | – | – | – | – | – | +3 | 11 |
| 6 | União de Leiria | 6 | – | – | – | – | – | +3 | 10 |
| 7 | Leixoes | 6 | – | – | – | – | – | +2 | 10 |
| 8 | Benfica B | 6 | – | – | – | – | – | +2 | 10 |
| 9 | AVS | 7 | – | – | – | – | – | +1 | 9 |
| 10 | Tondela | 6 | – | – | – | – | – | +1 | 9 |
| 11 | Academica | 6 | – | – | – | – | – | -2 | 9 |
| 12 | Portimonense | 6 | – | – | – | – | – | -2 | 7 |
| 13 | Felgueiras 1932 | 6 | – | – | – | – | – | -1 | 6 |
| 14 | Torreense | 6 | – | – | – | – | – | -2 | 6 |
| 15 | Amarante | 6 | – | – | – | – | – | -3 | 5 |
| 16 | Chaves | 6 | – | – | – | – | – | -8 | 4 |
| 17 | FC Porto B | 6 | – | – | – | – | – | -9 | 4 |
| 18 | Feirense | 6 | – | – | – | – | – | -7 | 1 |
| Last 10 (6) | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 9 | -2 | 6 | 1.00 | 2 | 2 |
|---|
| Away, last 5 (3) | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 4 | +1 | 4 | 1.33 | 1 | 0 |
|---|
| Away, last 10 (3) | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 4 | +1 | 4 | 1.33 | 1 | 0 |
|---|
W
· Germany - Bundesliga
Each of FC Augsburg's last 4 league matches had three or more goals.
L
· Germany - Bundesliga
Each of 1899 Hoffenheim's last 4 league matches had three or more goals.
W
· Germany - Bundesliga
3 of VfB Stuttgart's last 4 league matches had two or more goals.
W
· Germany - Bundesliga
Each of Union Berlin's last 4 league matches had three or more goals.
L
· Germany - Bundesliga
Each of Bayer Leverkusen's last 4 league matches had two or more goals.
D
· England - Premier League
Each of Chelsea's last 5 league matches had three or more goals.
L
· England - Championship
Each of Middlesbrough's last 4 home matches had three or more goals.
W
· England - Championship
Each of Millwall's last 8 league matches had two or more goals.
L
· Scotland - Premiership
The model expects Rangers to score 1.9 goals and Kilmarnock 0.9.
L
· Spain - La Liga
Each of Atletico Madrid's last 7 league matches had two or more goals.
D
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
Each of GO Ahead Eagles's last 7 league matches had two or more goals.
L
L
· Italy - Serie A
Each of Parma's last 4 league matches had two or more goals.
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 88%
Average price 1.05
RLERB LeipzigLWLLWEFREintracht FrankfurtWDWLD
Last 5 games
· Germany - Bundesliga
Each of RB Leipzig's last 4 league matches had two or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 83%
Average price 1.12
MANManchester UnitedDLLWDTOTTottenhamLLDDL
Last 5 games
· England - Premier League
4 of Manchester United's last 5 league matches had two or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 85%
Average price 1.10
FEYFeyenoordWWLWDAALAZ AlkmaarWLDWW
Last 5 games
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
Each of Feyenoord's last 6 league matches had three or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 74%
Average price 1.25
MARMaritimoDLLLDPORFC PortoWWWLW
Last 5 games
· Portugal - Primeira Liga
Each of FC Porto's last 7 league matches had two or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 86%
Average price 1.09
FSIFortuna SittardWWLWWTWETwenteWWWWD
Last 5 games
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
Each of Fortuna Sittard's last 3 home matches had two or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 88%
Average price 1.06
AJAAjaxDWWLWNNINEC NijmegenDLLDL
Last 5 games
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
Each of Ajax's last 7 league matches had two or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 88%
Average price 1.05
RMAReal MadridLWWWLVILVillarrealWWLLL
Last 5 games
· Spain - La Liga
Each of Villarreal's last 4 league matches had three or more goals.
See the full analysis