UD Ourense vs Barakaldo prediction, Saturday 10 October: chances and analysisBack to today's picks
· Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 1
UD Ourense v BarakaldoHomevAwayHomevAway
No pick for this match: no market passed our rules.
Our model's chances
Chances of each result: UD Ourense win 33%, Draw 29%, Barakaldo win 38%.
UD Ourense host Barakaldo in the Primera División RFEF - Group 1, Spain.
Our model gives UD Ourense a 33% chance of winning, a draw 29% and Barakaldo 38%.
The model expects UD Ourense to score 1.1 goals and Barakaldo 1.2.
UD Ourense have won 0 of their last 6 league matches; Barakaldo have won 1 of 6.
Top factors
- UD Ourense sit 19th with 2 points; Barakaldo sit 16th with 6 points.
- UD Ourense have taken 2 points from their last 5 matches; Barakaldo 5 from 5.
- At home, UD Ourense have taken 1 point from their last 3; away, Barakaldo have taken 0 from their last 2.
Chances and prices are from our nightly scan before the match. Nothing after that is used.
Key numbers, the table, form, head to head and more.
Our model's chance for each market, with the bookmakers' average price.
- UD Ourense win
- 33% · price 3.51
Barakaldo win38% · price 1.97 Over 1.5 goals70% · price 1.36 Over 2.5 goals45% · price 2.10 Both teams score49% · price 1.90 Expected goals (our model)UD Ourense 1.1, Barakaldo 1.2 Context onlyTable position isn't in the model.
Where the teams sit in the Primera División RFEF - Group 1, before kick-off.
UD Ourense sit 19th with 2 points; Barakaldo sit 16th with 6. A gap of 5 in goal difference, in favour of Barakaldo.
Stored before 7 October 2026: wins, draws, losses and goals were not kept.
- 15th Unionistas de Salamanca6 points from 6 games · goal difference -3
- 16th Barakaldo6 points from 6 games · goal difference -3
- 17th Real Avilés5 points from 6 games · goal difference -1
- 18th CD Coria5 points from 6 games · goal difference -3
- 19th UD Ourense2 points from 6 games · goal difference -8
- 20th Arenas Getxo2 points from 6 games · goal difference -10
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|
| 15 | Unionistas de Salamanca | 6 | – | – | – | – | – | -3 | 6 |
| 16 | Barakaldo | 6 | – | – | – | – | – | -3 | 6 |
| 17 | Real Avilés | 6 | – | – | – | – | – | -1 | 5 |
| 18 | CD Coria | 6 | – | – | – | – | – | -3 | 5 |
| 19 | UD Ourense | 6 | – | – | – | – | – | -8 | 2 |
| 20 | Arenas Getxo | 6 | – | – | – | – | – | -10 |
Show full tableShow less
- 1st UD Logroñés16 points from 6 games · goal difference +8
- 2nd Lugo16 points from 6 games · goal difference +6
- 3rd Athletic Club II11 points from 6 games · goal difference +4
- 4th Cacereño11 points from 6 games · goal difference +3
- 5th Ponferradina11 points from 6 games · goal difference +2
- 6th Mirandes10 points from 6 games · goal difference +2
- 7th Zamora10 points from 6 games · goal difference +2
- 8th Racing Ferrol10 points from 6 games · goal difference +2
- 9th Real Unión8 points from 6 games · goal difference +2
- 10th Deportivo La Coruña II8 points from 6 games · goal difference +1
- 11th Pontevedra8 points from 6 games · goal difference 0
Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.
Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
DDrewat Real Unión3 Oct 2026 · Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Away1–1
DDrewv Cacereño27 Sept 2026 · Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Home0–0
LLostat Unionistas de Salamanca19 Sept 2026 · Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Away1–3
LLostv UD Logroñés12 Sept 2026 · Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Home0–3
LLostat Mirandes5 Sept 2026 · Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Away0–2
Show last 6 matchesShowing 6
LLostv Ponferradina29 Aug 2026 · Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Home0–1
Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.
Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
DDrewv Arenas Getxo3 Oct 2026 · Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Home1–1
DDrewv Real Avilés27 Sept 2026 · Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Home3–3
LLostat Racing Ferrol19 Sept 2026 · Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Away0–1
WWonv Extremadura 192411 Sept 2026 · Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Home1–0
LLostat CD Coria5 Sept 2026 · Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Away1–4
Show last 6 matchesShowing 6
DDrewv Cultural Leonesa30 Aug 2026 · Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Home0–0
In the modelThe model rates each team's home and away records separately.
The last 5 and 10 matches, then UD Ourense at home and Barakaldo away only: a home fixture is read from home matches where there are enough.
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
UD Ourense
- Last 5 (5)0 won, 2 drawn, 3 lost · 2 scored, 9 conceded · 0.40 points a game · 1 clean sheet · failed to score in 3
- Last 10 (6)0 won, 2 drawn, 4 lost · 2 scored, 10 conceded · 0.33 points a game · 1 clean sheet · failed to score in 4
- Home, last 5 (3)0 won, 1 drawn, 2 lost · 0 scored, 4 conceded · 0.33 points a game · 1 clean sheet · failed to score in 3
- Home, last 10 (3)0 won, 1 drawn, 2 lost · 0 scored, 4 conceded · 0.33 points a game · 1 clean sheet · failed to score in 3
UD Ourense| Sample | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | CS | FTS |
|---|
| Last 5 (5) | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 9 | -7 | 2 | 0.40 | 1 | 3 |
|---|
| Last 10 (6) | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 10 | -8 | 2 | 0.33 | 1 | 4 |
|---|
| Home, last 5 (3) | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -4 | 1 | 0.33 | 1 | 3 |
|---|
| Home, last 10 (3) | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -4 | 1 | 0.33 | 1 | 3 |
|---|
Barakaldo
- Last 5 (5)1 won, 2 drawn, 2 lost · 6 scored, 9 conceded · 1.00 points a game · 1 clean sheet · failed to score in 1
- Last 10 (6)1 won, 3 drawn, 2 lost · 6 scored, 9 conceded · 1.00 points a game · 2 clean sheets · failed to score in 2
- Away, last 5 (2)0 won, 0 drawn, 2 lost · 1 scored, 5 conceded · 0.00 points a game · 0 clean sheets · failed to score in 1
- Away, last 10 (2)0 won, 0 drawn, 2 lost · 1 scored, 5 conceded · 0.00 points a game · 0 clean sheets · failed to score in 1
Barakaldo| Sample | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | CS | FTS |
|---|
| Last 5 (5) | 5 | 1 |
|---|
UD Ourense at home: Insufficient historical data. Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
Barakaldo away: Insufficient historical data. Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
Context onlyShown for context. The model's own ratings come from goals scored and conceded this season and last.
| Measure | UD Ourense | Barakaldo |
|---|
| League position | 19th | 16th |
|---|
| Points per game | 0.33 | 1.00 |
|---|
| Attack: goals per game (last 6 and 6) | 0.33 | 1.00 |
|---|
| Defence: conceded per game (last 6 and 6) | 1.67 | 1.50 |
|---|
| Clean sheets | 1 | 2 |
|---|
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
In the modelMissing players move the model's expected goals, chiefly a missing top scorer.
Players out or doubtful, as reported the night before.
Yesterday: 4 of 4 picks won. See every pick
Today's picks
Today, Saturday 10 October
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Showing the top 20 of 26 picks, in kick-off order. 6 more are under Show all.Updating…
Starting in 3 to 6 hours (12)
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 71%
Average price 1.32
GENGenoaLLWDLFIOFiorentinaDWW
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|
| 1 | UD Logroñés | 6 | – | – | – | – | – | +8 | 16 |
| 2 | Lugo | 6 | – | – | – | – | – | +6 | 16 |
| 3 | Athletic Club II | 6 | – | – | – | – | – | +4 | 11 |
| 4 | Cacereño | 6 | – | – | – | – | – | +3 | 11 |
| 5 | Ponferradina | 6 | – | – | – | – | – | +2 | 11 |
| 6 | Mirandes | 6 | – | – | – | – | – | +2 | 10 |
| 7 | Zamora | 6 | – | – | – | – | – | +2 | 10 |
| 8 | Racing Ferrol | 6 | – | – | – | – | – | +2 | 10 |
| 9 | Real Unión | 6 | – | – | – | – | – | +2 | 8 |
| 10 | Deportivo La Coruña II | 6 | – | – | – | – | – | +1 | 8 |
| 11 | Pontevedra | 6 | – | – | – | – | – | 0 | 8 |
| 12 | Cultural Leonesa | 6 | – | – | – | – | – | -1 | 8 |
| 13 | Extremadura 1924 | 6 | – | – | – | – | – | -1 | 6 |
| 14 | Mérida AD | 6 | – | – | – | – | – | -2 | 6 |
| 15 | Unionistas de Salamanca | 6 | – | – | – | – | – | -3 | 6 |
| 16 | Barakaldo | 6 | – | – | – | – | – | -3 | 6 |
| 17 | Real Avilés | 6 | – | – | – | – | – | -1 | 5 |
| 18 | CD Coria | 6 | – | – | – | – | – | -3 | 5 |
| 19 | UD Ourense | 6 | – | – | – | – | – | -8 | 2 |
| 20 | Arenas Getxo | 6 | – | – | – | – | – | -10 | 2 |
| Last 10 (6) | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 9 | -3 | 6 | 1.00 | 2 | 2 |
|---|
| Away, last 5 (2) | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -4 | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 1 |
|---|
| Away, last 10 (2) | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -4 | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 1 |
|---|
L
L
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RMAReal MadridLWWWLVILVillarrealWWLL
D
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