Vukovar vs Hrvace prediction, Saturday 10 October: chances and analysisBack to today's picks
· Croatia - First NL
Vukovar v HrvaceHomevAwayHomevAway
No pick for this match: no market passed our rules.
Our model's chances
Chances of each result: Vukovar win 57%, Draw 23%, Hrvace win 20%.
Vukovar host Hrvace in the First NL, Croatia.
Our model gives Vukovar a 57% chance of winning, a draw 23% and Hrvace 20%.
The model expects Vukovar to score 1.9 goals and Hrvace 1.0.
Vukovar have won 2 of their last 6 league matches; Hrvace have won 2 of 6.
Top factors
- Vukovar sit 14th with 8 points; Hrvace sit 16th with 7 points.
- Vukovar have taken 4 points from their last 5 matches; Hrvace 7 from 5.
- At home, Vukovar have taken 4 points from their last 4; away, Hrvace have taken 3 from their last 3.
Chances and prices are from our nightly scan before the match. Nothing after that is used.
Key numbers, the table, form, head to head and more.
Our model's chance for each market, with the bookmakers' average price.
- Vukovar win
- 57% · price 1.96
Yesterday: 4 of 4 picks won. See every pick
Today's picks
Today, Saturday 10 October
Times shown in your time (EDT)
Hrvace win20% · price 3.53 Over 1.5 goals77% · price 1.27 Over 2.5 goals55% · price 1.89 Both teams score52% · price 1.73 Expected goals (our model)Vukovar 1.9, Hrvace 1.0 Context onlyTable position isn't in the model.
Where the teams sit in the First NL, before kick-off.
Vukovar sit 14th with 8 points; Hrvace sit 16th with 7. A gap of 2 in goal difference, in favour of Vukovar.
Stored before 7 October 2026: wins, draws, losses and goals were not kept.
- 13th Orijent 19198 points from 7 games · goal difference -2
- 14th Vukovar8 points from 7 games · goal difference -3
- 15th Kustosija7 points from 8 games · goal difference -2
- 16th Hrvace7 points from 7 games · goal difference -5
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|
| 13 | Orijent 1919 | 7 | – | – | – | – | – | -2 | 8 |
| 14 | Vukovar | 7 | – | – | – | – | – | -3 | 8 |
| 15 | Kustosija | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | -2 | 7 |
| 16 | Hrvace | 7 | – | – | – | – | – | -5 | 7 |
Show full tableShow less
- 1st Jadran LP15 points from 8 games · goal difference +5
- 2nd Mladost Ždralovi14 points from 8 games · goal difference +1
- 3rd Croatia Zmijavci13 points from 7 games · goal difference +5
- 4th HNK Cibalia13 points from 8 games · goal difference +2
- 5th Bsk Bijelo Brdo13 points from 8 games · goal difference +1
- 6th Segesta Sisak11 points from 7 games · goal difference +1
- 7th Karlovac 191911 points from 8 games · goal difference -1
- 8th Sesvete10 points from 8 games · goal difference +1
- 9th Dinamo Zagreb U219 points from 7 games · goal difference 0
- 10th Dugopolje9 points from 7 games · goal difference 0
- 11th Dubrava Zagreb
Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.
Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
LLostat Opatija27 Sept 2026 · First NL · Away0–1
LLostv Jadran LP19 Sept 2026 · First NL · Home2–3
WWonat Croatia Zmijavci13 Sept 2026 · First NL · Away3–2
DDrewv HNK Cibalia5 Sept 2026 · First NL · Home1–1
LLostv Dinamo Zagreb U212 Sept 2026 · First NL · Home2–6
Show last 6 matchesShowing 6
WWonv Segesta Sisak28 Aug 2026 · First NL · Home2–0
Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.
Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
WWonv Orijent 191926 Sept 2026 · First NL · Home3–0
WWonat Bsk Bijelo Brdo19 Sept 2026 · First NL · Away2–1
DDrewv Dubrava Zagreb12 Sept 2026 · First NL · Home0–0
LLostat Karlovac 19196 Sept 2026 · First NL · Away1–3
LLostat Opatija2 Sept 2026 · First NL · Away0–1
Show last 6 matchesShowing 6
LLostv Jadran LP29 Aug 2026 · First NL · Home1–4
In the modelThe model rates each team's home and away records separately.
The last 5 and 10 matches, then Vukovar at home and Hrvace away only: a home fixture is read from home matches where there are enough.
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
Vukovar
- Last 5 (5)1 won, 1 drawn, 3 lost · 8 scored, 13 conceded · 0.80 points a game · 0 clean sheets · failed to score in 1
- Last 10 (6)2 won, 1 drawn, 3 lost · 10 scored, 13 conceded · 1.17 points a game · 1 clean sheet · failed to score in 1
- Home, last 5 (4)1 won, 1 drawn, 2 lost · 7 scored, 10 conceded · 1.00 points a game · 1 clean sheet · failed to score in 0
- Home, last 10 (4)1 won, 1 drawn, 2 lost · 7 scored, 10 conceded · 1.00 points a game · 1 clean sheet · failed to score in 0
Vukovar| Sample | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | CS | FTS |
|---|
| Last 5 (5) | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 13 | -5 | 4 | 0.80 | 0 | 1 |
|---|
| Last 10 (6) | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 10 | 13 | -3 | 7 | 1.17 | 1 | 1 |
|---|
| Home, last 5 (4) | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 10 | -3 | 4 | 1.00 | 1 | 0 |
|---|
| Home, last 10 (4) | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 10 | -3 | 4 | 1.00 | 1 | 0 |
|---|
Hrvace
- Last 5 (5)2 won, 1 drawn, 2 lost · 6 scored, 5 conceded · 1.40 points a game · 2 clean sheets · failed to score in 2
- Last 10 (6)2 won, 1 drawn, 3 lost · 7 scored, 9 conceded · 1.17 points a game · 2 clean sheets · failed to score in 2
- Away, last 5 (3)1 won, 0 drawn, 2 lost · 3 scored, 5 conceded · 1.00 points a game · 0 clean sheets · failed to score in 1
- Away, last 10 (3)1 won, 0 drawn, 2 lost · 3 scored, 5 conceded · 1.00 points a game · 0 clean sheets · failed to score in 1
Hrvace| Sample | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | CS | FTS |
|---|
| Last 5 (5) | 5 | 2 |
|---|
Vukovar at home: Insufficient historical data. Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
Hrvace away: Insufficient historical data. Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
Context onlyShown for context. The model's own ratings come from goals scored and conceded this season and last.
| Measure | Vukovar | Hrvace |
|---|
| League position | 14th | 16th |
|---|
| Points per game | 1.14 | 1.00 |
|---|
| Attack: goals per game (last 6 and 6) | 1.67 | 1.17 |
|---|
| Defence: conceded per game (last 6 and 6) | 2.17 | 1.50 |
|---|
| Clean sheets | 1 | 2 |
|---|
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
In the modelMissing players move the model's expected goals, chiefly a missing top scorer.
Players out or doubtful, as reported the night before.
Context onlyFacts pointing the other way. The model doesn't read them.
Evidence pointing the other way.
- Hrvace have the better recent form: 7 points from 5 against 4 from 5.
Showing the top 20 of 26 picks, in kick-off order. 6 more are under Show all.Updating…
Starting in 3 to 6 hours (12)
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 71%
Average price 1.32
GENGenoaLLWDLFIOFiorentinaDWWLL
Last 5 games
· Italy - Serie A
Each of Fiorentina's last 5 league matches had two or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 93%
Average price 1.03
AUGFC AugsburgDLDWWBMUBayern MünchenWWWD
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 85%
Average price 1.10
HOF1899 HoffenheimLLWLLHAMHamburger SVWWLL
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 87%
Average price 1.07
PADSC Paderborn 07WWLLDVSTVfB StuttgartWWLL
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 82%
Average price 1.13
UBEUnion BerlinWLLLDELVSV ElversbergLDLW
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 84%
Average price 1.11
FMAFSV Mainz 05WWLWDBLEBayer LeverkusenWWDW
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 83%
Average price 1.13
CHEChelseaLDWLWBOUBournemouthLWDW
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 79%
Average price 1.18
MIDMiddlesbroughDDWLWWOLWolvesWLWD
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 75%
Average price 1.25
PREPrestonDLLWLMILMillwallDDLL
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 86%
Average price 1.08
RANRangersWWWWWKILKilmarnockDWDD
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 75%
Average price 1.25
ALAAlavesDLLWWAMAAtletico MadridWWWL
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 85%
Average price 1.09
GAEGO Ahead EaglesDDDLWSROSparta RotterdamLLDL
Starting later (8)
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 86%
Average price 1.08
INTInterWDWLWPARParmaWLD
8 points from 7 games · goal difference -1
12th Opatija8 points from 8 games · goal difference -213th Orijent 19198 points from 7 games · goal difference -214th Vukovar8 points from 7 games · goal difference -315th Kustosija7 points from 8 games · goal difference -216th Hrvace7 points from 7 games · goal difference -5| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|
| 1 | Jadran LP | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | +5 | 15 |
| 2 | Mladost Ždralovi | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | +1 | 14 |
| 3 | Croatia Zmijavci | 7 | – | – | – | – | – | +5 | 13 |
| 4 | HNK Cibalia | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | +2 | 13 |
| 5 | Bsk Bijelo Brdo | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | +1 | 13 |
| 6 | Segesta Sisak | 7 | – | – | – | – | – | +1 | 11 |
| 7 | Karlovac 1919 | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | -1 | 11 |
| 8 | Sesvete | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | +1 | 10 |
| 9 | Dinamo Zagreb U21 | 7 | – | – | – | – | – | 0 | 9 |
| 10 | Dugopolje | 7 | – | – | – | – | – | 0 | 9 |
| 11 | Dubrava Zagreb | 7 | – | – | – | – | – | -1 | 8 |
| 12 | Opatija | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | -2 | 8 |
| 13 | Orijent 1919 | 7 | – | – | – | – | – | -2 | 8 |
| 14 | Vukovar | 7 | – | – | – | – | – | -3 | 8 |
| 15 | Kustosija | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | -2 | 7 |
| 16 | Hrvace | 7 | – | – | – | – | – | -5 | 7 |
| Last 10 (6) | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 9 | -2 | 7 | 1.17 | 2 | 2 |
|---|
| Away, last 5 (3) | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 3 | 1.00 | 0 | 1 |
|---|
| Away, last 10 (3) | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 3 | 1.00 | 0 | 1 |
|---|
W
· Germany - Bundesliga
Each of FC Augsburg's last 4 league matches had three or more goals.
L
· Germany - Bundesliga
Each of 1899 Hoffenheim's last 4 league matches had three or more goals.
W
· Germany - Bundesliga
3 of VfB Stuttgart's last 4 league matches had two or more goals.
W
· Germany - Bundesliga
Each of Union Berlin's last 4 league matches had three or more goals.
L
· Germany - Bundesliga
Each of Bayer Leverkusen's last 4 league matches had two or more goals.
D
· England - Premier League
Each of Chelsea's last 5 league matches had three or more goals.
L
· England - Championship
Each of Middlesbrough's last 4 home matches had three or more goals.
W
· England - Championship
Each of Millwall's last 8 league matches had two or more goals.
L
· Scotland - Premiership
The model expects Rangers to score 1.9 goals and Kilmarnock 0.9.
L
· Spain - La Liga
Each of Atletico Madrid's last 7 league matches had two or more goals.
D
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
Each of GO Ahead Eagles's last 7 league matches had two or more goals.
L
L
· Italy - Serie A
Each of Parma's last 4 league matches had two or more goals.
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 88%
Average price 1.05
RLERB LeipzigLWLLWEFREintracht FrankfurtWDWLD
Last 5 games
· Germany - Bundesliga
Each of RB Leipzig's last 4 league matches had two or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 83%
Average price 1.12
MANManchester UnitedDLLWDTOTTottenhamLLDDL
Last 5 games
· England - Premier League
4 of Manchester United's last 5 league matches had two or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 85%
Average price 1.10
FEYFeyenoordWWLWDAALAZ AlkmaarWLDWW
Last 5 games
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
Each of Feyenoord's last 6 league matches had three or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 74%
Average price 1.25
MARMaritimoDLLLDPORFC PortoWWWLW
Last 5 games
· Portugal - Primeira Liga
Each of FC Porto's last 7 league matches had two or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 86%
Average price 1.09
FSIFortuna SittardWWLWWTWETwenteWWWWD
Last 5 games
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
Each of Fortuna Sittard's last 3 home matches had two or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 88%
Average price 1.06
AJAAjaxDWWLWNNINEC NijmegenDLLDL
Last 5 games
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
Each of Ajax's last 7 league matches had two or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 88%
Average price 1.05
RMAReal MadridLWWWLVILVillarrealWWLLL
Last 5 games
· Spain - La Liga
Each of Villarreal's last 4 league matches had three or more goals.
See the full analysis