Showing the top 20 of 26 picks, in kick-off order. 6 more are under Show all.Updating…
Starting in 3 to 6 hours (12)
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
78%win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 71%
Average price 1.32
GENGenoaLLWDLFIOFiorentinaDWW
Draw
24% · price 3.67
Lancaster City win
37% · price 3.34
Over 1.5 goals
82% · price 1.18
Over 2.5 goals
61% · price 1.67
Both teams score
57% · price 1.60
Expected goals (our model)
Warrington Town 1.7, Lancaster City 1.6
League context
Context onlyTable position isn't in the model.
Where the teams sit in the Non League Premier - Northern, before kick-off.
Warrington Town sit 9th with 18 points; Lancaster City sit 12th with 16. A gap of 12 in goal difference, in favour of Warrington Town; Warrington Town have played 2 fewer.
Stored before 7 October 2026: wins, draws, losses and goals were not kept.
8thAlfreton Town18 points from 12 games · goal difference +5
9thWarrington Town18 points from 10 games · goal difference +4
10thBury16 points from 10 games · goal difference +10
11thGainsborough Trinity16 points from 10 games · goal difference +6
12thLancaster City16 points from 12 games · goal difference -8
13thHyde United14 points from 12 games · goal difference -8
#
Team
P
W
D
L
GF
GA
GD
Pts
8
Alfreton Town
12
–
–
–
–
–
+5
18
9
Warrington Town
10
–
–
–
–
–
+4
18
10
Bury
10
–
–
–
–
–
+10
16
11
Gainsborough Trinity
10
–
–
–
–
–
+6
16
12
Lancaster City
12
–
–
–
–
–
-8
16
13
Hyde United
12
–
–
–
–
–
-8
Show full tableShow less
1stCleethorpes Town27 points from 12 games · goal difference +20
2ndAvro25 points from 10 games · goal difference +14
3rdRedcar Athletic25 points from 12 games · goal difference +12
4thGuiseley AFC22 points from 11 games · goal difference +13
5thWorkington21 points from 12 games · goal difference +4
6thRylands20 points from 12 games · goal difference +3
7thCurzon Ashton19 points from 10 games · goal difference +10
8thAlfreton Town18 points from 12 games · goal difference +5
9thWarrington Town18 points from 10 games · goal difference +4
10thBury16 points from 10 games · goal difference +10
11thGainsborough Trinity
Warrington Town: recent fixtures
Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.
Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
DDrewv Workington6 Oct 2026 · Non League Premier - Northern · Home2–2
LLostat United of Manchester12 Sept 2026 · Non League Premier - Northern · Away1–4
WWonat Leek Town1 Sept 2026 · Non League Premier - Northern · Away2–1
DDrewv AFC Emley29 Aug 2026 · Non League Premier - Northern · Home2–2
LLostv Curzon Ashton25 Aug 2026 · Non League Premier - Northern · Home0–4
Show last 6 matchesShowing 6
WWonat Whitby Town22 Aug 2026 · Non League Premier - Northern · Away5–0
Lancaster City: recent fixtures
Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.
Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
LLostat Avro7 Oct 2026 · Non League Premier - Northern · Away3–5
WWonv Ilkeston Town3 Oct 2026 · Non League Premier - Northern · Home2–1
WWonat Whitby Town29 Sept 2026 · Non League Premier - Northern · Away2–1
LLostv Curzon Ashton12 Sept 2026 · Non League Premier - Northern · Home0–2
LLostv Workington31 Aug 2026 · Non League Premier - Northern · Home0–3
Show last 6 matchesShowing 6
WWonat Guiseley AFC28 Aug 2026 · Non League Premier - Northern · Away2–1
Form, home and away
In the modelThe model rates each team's home and away records separately.
The last 5 and 10 matches, then Warrington Town at home and Lancaster City away only: a home fixture is read from home matches where there are enough.
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
Warrington Town
Last 5 (5)1 won, 2 drawn, 2 lost · 7 scored, 13 conceded · 1.00 points a game · 0 clean sheets · failed to score in 1
Last 10 (6)2 won, 2 drawn, 2 lost · 12 scored, 13 conceded · 1.33 points a game · 1 clean sheet · failed to score in 1
Home, last 5 (3)0 won, 2 drawn, 1 lost · 4 scored, 8 conceded · 0.67 points a game · 0 clean sheets · failed to score in 1
Home, last 10 (3)0 won, 2 drawn, 1 lost · 4 scored, 8 conceded · 0.67 points a game · 0 clean sheets · failed to score in 1
Warrington Town
Sample
P
W
D
L
GF
GA
GD
Pts
PPG
CS
FTS
Last 5 (5)
5
1
2
2
7
13
-6
5
1.00
0
1
Last 10 (6)
6
2
2
2
12
13
-1
8
1.33
1
1
Home, last 5 (3)
3
0
2
1
4
8
-4
2
0.67
0
1
Home, last 10 (3)
3
0
2
1
4
8
-4
2
0.67
0
1
Lancaster City
Last 5 (5)2 won, 0 drawn, 3 lost · 7 scored, 12 conceded · 1.20 points a game · 0 clean sheets · failed to score in 2
Last 10 (6)3 won, 0 drawn, 3 lost · 9 scored, 13 conceded · 1.50 points a game · 0 clean sheets · failed to score in 2
Away, last 5 (3)2 won, 0 drawn, 1 lost · 7 scored, 7 conceded · 2.00 points a game · 0 clean sheets · failed to score in 0
Away, last 10 (3)2 won, 0 drawn, 1 lost · 7 scored, 7 conceded · 2.00 points a game · 0 clean sheets · failed to score in 0
Lancaster City
Sample
P
W
D
L
GF
GA
GD
Pts
PPG
CS
FTS
Last 5 (5)
5
2
Warrington Town at home: Insufficient historical data. Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
Lancaster City away: Insufficient historical data. Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
Team strength, attack and defence
Context onlyShown for context. The model's own ratings come from goals scored and conceded this season and last.
Measure
Warrington Town
Lancaster City
League position
9th
12th
Points per game
1.80
1.33
Attack: goals per game (last 6 and 6)
2.00
1.50
Defence: conceded per game (last 6 and 6)
2.17
2.17
Clean sheets
1
0
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
Squad availability
In the modelMissing players move the model's expected goals, chiefly a missing top scorer.
Players out or doubtful, as reported the night before.
Warrington Town
None reported.
Lancaster City
None reported.
Counter-signals
Context onlyFacts pointing the other way. The model doesn't read them.
Evidence pointing the other way.
Lancaster City have the better recent form: 6 points from 5 against 5 from 5.
L
L
Last 5 games
· Italy - Serie A
Each of Fiorentina's last 5 league matches had two or more goals.