Warta Gorzów vs Polonia Nysa prediction, Saturday 10 October: chances and analysisBack to today's picks
· Poland - III Liga - Group 3
Warta Gorzów v Polonia NysaHomevAwayHomevAway
No pick for this match: no market passed our rules.
Our model's chances
Chances of each result: Warta Gorzów win 53%, Draw 24%, Polonia Nysa win 23%.
Warta Gorzów host Polonia Nysa in the III Liga - Group 3, Poland.
Our model gives Warta Gorzów a 53% chance of winning, a draw 24% and Polonia Nysa 23%.
The model expects Warta Gorzów to score 1.8 goals and Polonia Nysa 1.0.
Warta Gorzów have won 1 of their last 6 league matches; Polonia Nysa have won 1 of 6.
Top factors
- Warta Gorzów sit 11th with 14 points; Polonia Nysa sit 17th with 8 points.
- Warta Gorzów have taken 6 points from their last 5 matches; Polonia Nysa 3 from 5.
- At home, Warta Gorzów have taken 4 points from their last 3; away, Polonia Nysa have taken 3 from their last 2.
Chances and prices are from our nightly scan before the match. Nothing after that is used.
Key numbers, the table, form, head to head and more.
Our model's chance for each market, with the bookmakers' average price.
- Warta Gorzów win
- 53% · price 1.69
Polonia Nysa win23% · price 3.94 Over 2.5 goals54% · price 1.48 Expected goals (our model)Warta Gorzów 1.8, Polonia Nysa 1.0 Context onlyTable position isn't in the model.
Where the teams sit in the III Liga - Group 3, before kick-off.
Warta Gorzów sit 11th with 14 points; Polonia Nysa sit 17th with 8. A gap of 6 in goal difference, in favour of Warta Gorzów.
Stored before 7 October 2026: wins, draws, losses and goals were not kept.
- 10th Miedź Legnica II14 points from 11 games · goal difference +4
- 11th Warta Gorzów14 points from 11 games · goal difference -6
- 12th Kluczbork12 points from 10 games · goal difference -7
- 16th Rakow II9 points from 9 games · goal difference -5
- 17th Polonia Nysa8 points from 11 games · goal difference -12
- 18th Carina Gubin8 points from 11 games · goal difference -14
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|
| 10 | Miedź Legnica II | 11 | – | – | – | – | – | +4 | 14 |
| 11 | Warta Gorzów | 11 | – | – | – | – | – | -6 | 14 |
| 12 | Kluczbork | 10 | – | – | – | – | – | -7 | 12 |
| 16 | Rakow II | 9 | – | – | – | – | – | -5 | 9 |
| 17 | Polonia Nysa | 11 | – | – | – | – | – | -12 | 8 |
| 18 | Carina Gubin | 11 | – | – | – | – | – | -14 |
Show full tableShow less
- 1st Sparta Katowice24 points from 11 games · goal difference +12
- 2nd Zagłębie Lubin II23 points from 11 games · goal difference +10
- 3rd Odra Bytom Odrzański23 points from 11 games · goal difference +7
- 4th Barycz Sułów20 points from 11 games · goal difference +5
- 5th Zaglebie Sosnowiec19 points from 10 games · goal difference +6
- 6th Górnik Polkowice18 points from 12 games · goal difference +4
- 7th ROW Rybnik17 points from 11 games · goal difference +5
- 8th Stilon Gorzów16 points from 12 games · goal difference +1
- 9th Karkonosze Jelenia Góra15 points from 11 games · goal difference +3
- 10th Miedź Legnica II14 points from 11 games · goal difference +4
-
Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.
Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
DDrewat Sparta Katowice3 Oct 2026 · III Liga - Group 3 · Away1–1
DDrewv Ślęza Wrocław26 Sept 2026 · III Liga - Group 3 · Home1–1
LLostat Goczałkowice Zdrój19 Sept 2026 · III Liga - Group 3 · Away1–4
WWonv Stal Brzeg12 Sept 2026 · III Liga - Group 3 · Home1–0
DDrewat Stilon Gorzów5 Sept 2026 · III Liga - Group 3 · Away1–1
Show last 6 matchesShowing 6
LLostv Zagłębie Lubin II29 Aug 2026 · III Liga - Group 3 · Home0–2
Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.
Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
LLostv Miedź Legnica II2 Oct 2026 · III Liga - Group 3 · Home1–2
WWonat Kluczbork26 Sept 2026 · III Liga - Group 3 · Away3–1
LLostv Rakow II18 Sept 2026 · III Liga - Group 3 · Home0–2
LLostv Zaglebie Sosnowiec12 Sept 2026 · III Liga - Group 3 · Home1–2
LLostat Sparta Katowice5 Sept 2026 · III Liga - Group 3 · Away0–4
Show last 6 matchesShowing 6
LLostv Ślęza Wrocław29 Aug 2026 · III Liga - Group 3 · Home1–3
In the modelThe model rates each team's home and away records separately.
The last 5 and 10 matches, then Warta Gorzów at home and Polonia Nysa away only: a home fixture is read from home matches where there are enough.
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
Warta Gorzów
- Last 5 (5)1 won, 3 drawn, 1 lost · 5 scored, 7 conceded · 1.20 points a game · 1 clean sheet · failed to score in 0
- Last 10 (6)1 won, 3 drawn, 2 lost · 5 scored, 9 conceded · 1.00 points a game · 1 clean sheet · failed to score in 1
- Home, last 5 (3)1 won, 1 drawn, 1 lost · 2 scored, 3 conceded · 1.33 points a game · 1 clean sheet · failed to score in 1
- Home, last 10 (3)1 won, 1 drawn, 1 lost · 2 scored, 3 conceded · 1.33 points a game · 1 clean sheet · failed to score in 1
Warta Gorzów| Sample | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | CS | FTS |
|---|
| Last 5 (5) | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 6 | 1.20 | 1 | 0 |
|---|
| Last 10 (6) | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 9 | -4 | 6 | 1.00 | 1 | 1 |
|---|
| Home, last 5 (3) | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 4 | 1.33 | 1 | 1 |
|---|
| Home, last 10 (3) | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 4 | 1.33 | 1 | 1 |
|---|
Polonia Nysa
- Last 5 (5)1 won, 0 drawn, 4 lost · 5 scored, 11 conceded · 0.60 points a game · 0 clean sheets · failed to score in 2
- Last 10 (6)1 won, 0 drawn, 5 lost · 6 scored, 14 conceded · 0.50 points a game · 0 clean sheets · failed to score in 2
- Away, last 5 (2)1 won, 0 drawn, 1 lost · 3 scored, 5 conceded · 1.50 points a game · 0 clean sheets · failed to score in 1
- Away, last 10 (2)1 won, 0 drawn, 1 lost · 3 scored, 5 conceded · 1.50 points a game · 0 clean sheets · failed to score in 1
Polonia Nysa| Sample | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | CS | FTS |
|---|
| Last 5 (5) | 5 | 1 |
|---|
Warta Gorzów at home: Insufficient historical data. Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
Polonia Nysa away: Insufficient historical data. Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
Context onlyShown for context. The model's own ratings come from goals scored and conceded this season and last.
| Measure | Warta Gorzów | Polonia Nysa |
|---|
| League position | 11th | 17th |
|---|
| Points per game | 1.27 | 0.73 |
|---|
| Attack: goals per game (last 6 and 6) | 0.83 | 1.00 |
|---|
| Defence: conceded per game (last 6 and 6) | 1.50 | 2.33 |
|---|
| Clean sheets | 1 | 0 |
|---|
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
In the modelMissing players move the model's expected goals, chiefly a missing top scorer.
Players out or doubtful, as reported the night before.
Warta Gorzów
None reported.
Polonia Nysa
None reported.
11th
Warta Gorzów
14 points from 11 games · goal difference -6
12th Kluczbork12 points from 10 games · goal difference -713th Stal Brzeg11 points from 11 games · goal difference +114th Goczałkowice Zdrój11 points from 11 games · goal difference -515th Ślęza Wrocław10 points from 11 games · goal difference -916th Rakow II9 points from 9 games · goal difference -517th Polonia Nysa8 points from 11 games · goal difference -1218th Carina Gubin8 points from 11 games · goal difference -14| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|
| 1 | Sparta Katowice | 11 | – | – | – | – | – | +12 | 24 |
| 2 | Zagłębie Lubin II | 11 | – | – | – | – | – | +10 | 23 |
| 3 | Odra Bytom Odrzański | 11 | – | – | – | – | – | +7 | 23 |
| 4 | Barycz Sułów | 11 | – | – | – | – | – | +5 | 20 |
| 5 | Zaglebie Sosnowiec | 10 | – | – | – | – | – | +6 | 19 |
| 6 | Górnik Polkowice | 12 | – | – | – | – | – | +4 | 18 |
| 7 | ROW Rybnik | 11 | – | – | – | – | – | +5 | 17 |
| 8 | Stilon Gorzów | 12 | – | – | – | – | – | +1 | 16 |
| 9 | Karkonosze Jelenia Góra | 11 | – | – | – | – | – | +3 | 15 |
| 10 | Miedź Legnica II | 11 | – | – | – | – | – | +4 | 14 |
| 11 | Warta Gorzów | 11 | – | – | – | – | – | -6 | 14 |
| 12 | Kluczbork | 10 | – | – | – | – | – | -7 | 12 |
| 13 | Stal Brzeg | 11 | – | – | – | – | – | +1 | 11 |
| 14 | Goczałkowice Zdrój | 11 | – | – | – | – | – | -5 | 11 |
| 15 | Ślęza Wrocław | 11 | – | – | – | – | – | -9 | 10 |
| 16 | Rakow II | 9 | – | – | – | – | – | -5 | 9 |
| 17 | Polonia Nysa | 11 | – | – | – | – | – | -12 | 8 |
| 18 | Carina Gubin | 11 | – | – | – | – | – | -14 | 8 |
| Last 10 (6) | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 6 | 14 | -8 | 3 | 0.50 | 0 | 2 |
|---|
| Away, last 5 (2) | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 3 | 1.50 | 0 | 1 |
|---|
| Away, last 10 (2) | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 3 | 1.50 | 0 | 1 |
|---|
Yesterday: 4 of 4 picks won. See every pick
Today's picks
Today, Saturday 10 October
Times shown in your time (EDT)
Showing the top 20 of 26 picks, in kick-off order. 6 more are under Show all.Updating…
Starting in 3 to 6 hours (12)
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
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Our model · Bookmakers: 71%
Average price 1.32
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Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
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Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
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Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
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Average price 1.11
FMAFSV Mainz 05WWLWDBLEBayer LeverkusenWWDW
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
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CHEChelseaLDWLWBOUBournemouthLWDW
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
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Average price 1.18
MIDMiddlesbroughDDWLWWOLWolvesWLWD
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
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Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
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Average price 1.08
RANRangersWWWWWKILKilmarnockDWDD
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
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Average price 1.25
ALAAlavesDLLWWAMAAtletico MadridWWWL
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
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Average price 1.09
GAEGO Ahead EaglesDDDLWSROSparta RotterdamLLDL
Starting later (8)
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 86%
Average price 1.08
INTInterWDWLWPARParmaWLD
W
· Germany - Bundesliga
Each of FC Augsburg's last 4 league matches had three or more goals.
L
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Each of 1899 Hoffenheim's last 4 league matches had three or more goals.
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3 of VfB Stuttgart's last 4 league matches had two or more goals.
W
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Each of Union Berlin's last 4 league matches had three or more goals.
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Each of Bayer Leverkusen's last 4 league matches had two or more goals.
D
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Each of Chelsea's last 5 league matches had three or more goals.
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W
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Each of Millwall's last 8 league matches had two or more goals.
L
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The model expects Rangers to score 1.9 goals and Kilmarnock 0.9.
L
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D
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Each of GO Ahead Eagles's last 7 league matches had two or more goals.
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L
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MANManchester UnitedDLLWDTOTTottenhamLLDDL
Last 5 games
· England - Premier League
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Average price 1.10
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Average price 1.25
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win chance
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Average price 1.09
FSIFortuna SittardWWLWWTWETwenteWWWWD
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AJAAjaxDWWLWNNINEC NijmegenDLLDL
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RMAReal MadridLWWWLVILVillarrealWWLLL
Last 5 games
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