West Brom vs Birmingham prediction, Saturday 10 October: chances and analysisBack to today's picks
· England - Championship
West Brom v BirminghamHomevAwayHomevAway
No pick for this match: no market passed our rules.
Our model's chances
Chances of each result: West Brom win 46%, Draw 28%, Birmingham win 27%.
West Brom host Birmingham in the Championship, England.
Our model gives West Brom a 46% chance of winning, a draw 28% and Birmingham 27%.
The model expects West Brom to score 1.4 goals and Birmingham 1.0.
West Brom have won 2 of their last 6 league matches; Birmingham have won 2 of 6.
Top factors
- West Brom sit 7th with 14 points; Birmingham sit 11th with 11 points.
- West Brom have taken 8 points from their last 5 matches; Birmingham 6 from 5.
- At home, West Brom have taken 5 points from their last 3; away, Birmingham have taken 6 from their last 3.
Chances and prices are from our nightly scan before the match. Nothing after that is used.
Key numbers, the table, form, head to head and more.
Our model's chance for each market, with the bookmakers' average price.
- West Brom win
- 46% · price 2.51
Yesterday: 4 of 4 picks won. See every pick
Today's picks
Today, Saturday 10 October
Times shown in your time (EDT)
Showing the top 20 of 26 picks, in kick-off order. 6 more are under Show all.Updating…
Starting in 3 to 6 hours (12)
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 71%
Average price 1.32
GENGenoaLLWDLFIOFiorentinaDWW
Birmingham win27% · price 2.79 Over 1.5 goals72% · price 1.32 Over 2.5 goals47% · price 2.01 Both teams score50% · price 1.75 Expected goals (our model)West Brom 1.4, Birmingham 1.0 Context onlyFacts that explain the pick. The model doesn't read them.
Worked out from the stored data, never estimated.
- West Brom sit 7th with 14 points; Birmingham sit 11th with 11 points.
- West Brom have taken 8 points from their last 5 matches; Birmingham 6 from 5.
- At home, West Brom have taken 5 points from their last 3; away, Birmingham have taken 6 from their last 3.
- West Brom have 2 players out or doubtful; Birmingham have 5.
Context onlyTable position isn't in the model.
Where the teams sit in the Championship, before kick-off.
West Brom sit 7th with 14 points; Birmingham sit 11th with 11. A gap of 1 in goal difference, in favour of West Brom.
Stored before 7 October 2026: wins, draws, losses and goals were not kept.
- 6th QPR14 points from 9 games · goal difference +3
- 7th West Brom14 points from 8 games · goal difference +2
- 8th Stoke City13 points from 8 games · goal difference +1
- 10th Charlton12 points from 8 games · goal difference -3
- 11th Birmingham11 points from 8 games · goal difference +1
- 12th Millwall11 points from 8 games · goal difference 0
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|
| 6 | QPR | 9 | – | – | – | – | – | +3 | 14 |
| 7 | West Brom | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | +2 | 14 |
| 8 | Stoke City | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | +1 | 13 |
| 10 | Charlton | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | -3 | 12 |
| 11 | Birmingham | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | +1 | 11 |
| 12 | Millwall | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | 0 | 11 |
Show full tableShow less
- 1st Swansea17 points from 8 games · goal difference +7
- 2nd West Ham16 points from 9 games · goal difference +11
- 3rd Middlesbrough15 points from 8 games · goal difference +4
- 4th Southampton14 points from 8 games · goal difference +9
- 5th Wolves14 points from 7 games · goal difference +5
- 6th QPR14 points from 9 games · goal difference +3
- 7th West Brom14 points from 8 games · goal difference +2
- 8th Stoke City13 points from 8 games · goal difference +1
- 9th Bristol City13 points from 8 games · goal difference -1
- 10th Charlton12 points from 8 games · goal difference -3
- 11th Birmingham11 points from 8 games · goal difference +1
Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.
Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
LLostat Wolves20 Sept 2026 · Championship · Away0–1
DDrewv QPR12 Sept 2026 · Championship · Home1–1
WWonat Derby9 Sept 2026 · Championship · Away1–0
WWonv Watford5 Sept 2026 · Championship · Home1–0
DDrewv Charlton2 Sept 2026 · Championship · Home1–1
Show last 6 matchesShowing 6
LLostat Middlesbrough29 Aug 2026 · Championship · Away1–3
Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.
Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
DDrewv Middlesbrough19 Sept 2026 · Championship · Home2–2
WWonat Derby12 Sept 2026 · Championship · Away2–1
LLostat Norwich9 Sept 2026 · Championship · Away1–2
DDrewv Wolves6 Sept 2026 · Championship · Home2–2
DDrewv Southampton1 Sept 2026 · Championship · Home1–1
Show last 6 matchesShowing 6
WWonat Wrexham28 Aug 2026 · Championship · Away2–1
In the modelThe model rates each team's home and away records separately.
The last 5 and 10 matches, then West Brom at home and Birmingham away only: a home fixture is read from home matches where there are enough.
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
West Brom
- Last 5 (5)2 won, 2 drawn, 1 lost · 4 scored, 3 conceded · 1.60 points a game · 2 clean sheets · failed to score in 1
- Last 10 (6)2 won, 2 drawn, 2 lost · 5 scored, 6 conceded · 1.33 points a game · 2 clean sheets · failed to score in 1
- Home, last 5 (3)1 won, 2 drawn, 0 lost · 3 scored, 2 conceded · 1.67 points a game · 1 clean sheet · failed to score in 0
- Home, last 10 (3)1 won, 2 drawn, 0 lost · 3 scored, 2 conceded · 1.67 points a game · 1 clean sheet · failed to score in 0
West Brom| Sample | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | CS | FTS |
|---|
| Last 5 (5) | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 3 | +1 | 8 | 1.60 | 2 | 1 |
|---|
| Last 10 (6) | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 6 | -1 | 8 | 1.33 | 2 | 1 |
|---|
| Home, last 5 (3) | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 2 | +1 | 5 | 1.67 | 1 | 0 |
|---|
| Home, last 10 (3) | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 2 | +1 | 5 | 1.67 | 1 | 0 |
|---|
Birmingham
- Last 5 (5)1 won, 3 drawn, 1 lost · 8 scored, 8 conceded · 1.20 points a game · 0 clean sheets · failed to score in 0
- Last 10 (6)2 won, 3 drawn, 1 lost · 10 scored, 9 conceded · 1.50 points a game · 0 clean sheets · failed to score in 0
- Away, last 5 (3)2 won, 0 drawn, 1 lost · 5 scored, 4 conceded · 2.00 points a game · 0 clean sheets · failed to score in 0
- Away, last 10 (3)2 won, 0 drawn, 1 lost · 5 scored, 4 conceded · 2.00 points a game · 0 clean sheets · failed to score in 0
Birmingham| Sample | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | CS | FTS |
|---|
| Last 5 (5) | 5 | 1 |
|---|
West Brom at home: Insufficient historical data. Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
Birmingham away: Insufficient historical data. Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
Context onlyShown for context. The model's own ratings come from goals scored and conceded this season and last.
| Measure | West Brom | Birmingham |
|---|
| League position | 7th | 11th |
|---|
| Points per game | 1.75 | 1.38 |
|---|
| Attack: goals per game (last 6 and 6) | 0.83 | 1.67 |
|---|
| Defence: conceded per game (last 6 and 6) | 1.00 | 1.50 |
|---|
| Clean sheets | 2 | 0 |
|---|
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
In the modelMissing players move the model's expected goals, chiefly a missing top scorer.
Players out or doubtful, as reported the night before.
West Brom
- N. Galves · out, knee injury
- M. Johnston · out, broken leg
Birmingham
- M. Bird · out, calf injury
- T. Gardner-Hickman · out, hamstring injury
- D. Gray · out, muscle injury
- M. Leonard · out, achilles tendon injury
- S. Wright · out, off the roster
L
L
· Italy - Serie A
Each of Fiorentina's last 5 league matches had two or more goals.
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 93%
Average price 1.03
AUGFC AugsburgDLDWWBMUBayern MünchenWWWDW
Last 5 games
· Germany - Bundesliga
Each of FC Augsburg's last 4 league matches had three or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 85%
Average price 1.10
HOF1899 HoffenheimLLWLLHAMHamburger SVWWLLL
Last 5 games
· Germany - Bundesliga
Each of 1899 Hoffenheim's last 4 league matches had three or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 87%
Average price 1.07
PADSC Paderborn 07WWLLDVSTVfB StuttgartWWLLW
Last 5 games
· Germany - Bundesliga
3 of VfB Stuttgart's last 4 league matches had two or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 82%
Average price 1.13
UBEUnion BerlinWLLLDELVSV ElversbergLDLWW
Last 5 games
· Germany - Bundesliga
Each of Union Berlin's last 4 league matches had three or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 84%
Average price 1.11
FMAFSV Mainz 05WWLWDBLEBayer LeverkusenWWDWL
Last 5 games
· Germany - Bundesliga
Each of Bayer Leverkusen's last 4 league matches had two or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 83%
Average price 1.13
CHEChelseaLDWLWBOUBournemouthLWDWD
Last 5 games
· England - Premier League
Each of Chelsea's last 5 league matches had three or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 79%
Average price 1.18
MIDMiddlesbroughDDWLWWOLWolvesWLWDL
Last 5 games
· England - Championship
Each of Middlesbrough's last 4 home matches had three or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 75%
Average price 1.25
PREPrestonDLLWLMILMillwallDDLLW
Last 5 games
· England - Championship
Each of Millwall's last 8 league matches had two or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 86%
Average price 1.08
RANRangersWWWWWKILKilmarnockDWDDL
Last 5 games
· Scotland - Premiership
The model expects Rangers to score 1.9 goals and Kilmarnock 0.9.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 75%
Average price 1.25
ALAAlavesDLLWWAMAAtletico MadridWWWLL
Last 5 games
· Spain - La Liga
Each of Atletico Madrid's last 7 league matches had two or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 85%
Average price 1.09
GAEGO Ahead EaglesDDDLWSROSparta RotterdamLLDLD
Last 5 games
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
Each of GO Ahead Eagles's last 7 league matches had two or more goals.
See the full analysisStarting later (8)
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 86%
Average price 1.08
INTInterWDWLWPARParmaWLDLL
Last 5 games
· Italy - Serie A
Each of Parma's last 4 league matches had two or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 88%
Average price 1.05
RLERB LeipzigLWLLWEFREintracht FrankfurtWDWL
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 83%
Average price 1.12
MANManchester UnitedDLLWDTOTTottenhamLLDD
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 85%
Average price 1.10
FEYFeyenoordWWLWDAALAZ AlkmaarWLDW
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 74%
Average price 1.25
MARMaritimoDLLLDPORFC PortoWWWL
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 86%
Average price 1.09
FSIFortuna SittardWWLWWTWETwenteWWWW
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 88%
Average price 1.06
AJAAjaxDWWLWNNINEC NijmegenDLLD
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 88%
Average price 1.05
RMAReal MadridLWWWLVILVillarrealWWLL
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|
| 1 | Swansea | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | +7 | 17 |
| 2 | West Ham | 9 | – | – | – | – | – | +11 | 16 |
| 3 | Middlesbrough | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | +4 | 15 |
| 4 | Southampton | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | +9 | 14 |
| 5 | Wolves | 7 | – | – | – | – | – | +5 | 14 |
| 6 | QPR | 9 | – | – | – | – | – | +3 | 14 |
| 7 | West Brom | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | +2 | 14 |
| 8 | Stoke City | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | +1 | 13 |
| 9 | Bristol City | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | -1 | 13 |
| 10 | Charlton | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | -3 | 12 |
| 11 | Birmingham | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | +1 | 11 |
| 12 | Millwall | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | 0 | 11 |
| 13 | Lincoln | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | -1 | 11 |
| 14 | Wrexham | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | -3 | 10 |
| 15 | Bolton | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | -4 | 10 |
| 16 | Blackburn | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | 0 | 9 |
| 17 | Norwich | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | -1 | 9 |
| 18 | Sheffield Utd | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | -2 | 9 |
| 19 | Portsmouth | 7 | – | – | – | – | – | -1 | 8 |
| 20 | Watford | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | -3 | 8 |
| 21 | Cardiff | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | -2 | 7 |
| 22 | Derby | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | -7 | 5 |
| 23 | Preston | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | -7 | 4 |
| 24 | Burnley | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | -8 | 4 |
| Last 10 (6) | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 10 | 9 | +1 | 9 | 1.50 | 0 | 0 |
|---|
| Away, last 5 (3) | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 4 | +1 | 6 | 2.00 | 0 | 0 |
|---|
| Away, last 10 (3) | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 4 | +1 | 6 | 2.00 | 0 | 0 |
|---|
D
· Germany - Bundesliga
Each of RB Leipzig's last 4 league matches had two or more goals.
L
· England - Premier League
4 of Manchester United's last 5 league matches had two or more goals.
W
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
Each of Feyenoord's last 6 league matches had three or more goals.
W
· Portugal - Primeira Liga
Each of FC Porto's last 7 league matches had two or more goals.
D
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
Each of Fortuna Sittard's last 3 home matches had two or more goals.
L
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
Each of Ajax's last 7 league matches had two or more goals.
L
· Spain - La Liga
Each of Villarreal's last 4 league matches had three or more goals.