Wycombe vs Luton prediction, Saturday 10 October: chances and analysisBack to today's picks
· England - League One
Wycombe v LutonHomevAwayHomevAway
No pick for this match: no market passed our rules.
Our model's chances
Chances of each result: Wycombe win 43%, Draw 23%, Luton win 34%.
Wycombe host Luton in the League One, England.
Our model gives Wycombe a 43% chance of winning, a draw 23% and Luton 34%.
The model expects Wycombe to score 1.9 goals and Luton 1.6.
Wycombe have won 2 of their last 6 league matches; Luton have won 1 of 6.
Top factors
- Wycombe sit 12th with 10 points; Luton sit 16th with 8 points.
- Wycombe have taken 8 points from their last 5 matches; Luton 4 from 5.
- At home, Wycombe have taken 2 points from their last 3; away, Luton have taken 0 from their last 2.
Chances and prices are from our nightly scan before the match. Nothing after that is used.
Key numbers, the table, form, head to head and more.
Our model's chance for each market, with the bookmakers' average price.
- Wycombe win
- 43% · price 2.59
Yesterday: 4 of 4 picks won. See every pick
Today's picks
Today, Saturday 10 October
Times shown in your time (EDT)
Showing the top 20 of 26 picks, in kick-off order. 6 more are under Show all.Updating…
Starting in 3 to 6 hours (12)
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 71%
Average price 1.32
GENGenoaLLWDLFIOFiorentinaDWW
Luton win34% · price 2.45 Over 1.5 goals83% · price 1.19 Over 2.5 goals64% · price 1.64 Both teams score58% · price 1.53 Expected goals (our model)Wycombe 1.9, Luton 1.6 Context onlyTable position isn't in the model.
Where the teams sit in the League One, before kick-off.
Wycombe sit 12th with 10 points; Luton sit 16th with 8. A gap of 1 in goal difference, in favour of Luton; Wycombe have played 1 more.
Stored before 7 October 2026: wins, draws, losses and goals were not kept.
- 11th Leyton Orient10 points from 8 games · goal difference +2
- 12th Wycombe10 points from 8 games · goal difference -3
- 13th Stevenage9 points from 7 games · goal difference +3
- 15th Blackpool8 points from 7 games · goal difference 0
- 16th Luton8 points from 7 games · goal difference -2
- 17th Mansfield Town8 points from 7 games · goal difference -3
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|
| 11 | Leyton Orient | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | +2 | 10 |
| 12 | Wycombe | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | -3 | 10 |
| 13 | Stevenage | 7 | – | – | – | – | – | +3 | 9 |
| 15 | Blackpool | 7 | – | – | – | – | – | 0 | 8 |
| 16 | Luton | 7 | – | – | – | – | – | -2 | 8 |
| 17 | Mansfield Town | 7 | – | – | – | – | – | -3 | 8 |
Show full tableShow less
- 1st Plymouth16 points from 9 games · goal difference +5
- 2nd Bradford16 points from 8 games · goal difference +3
- 3rd Huddersfield15 points from 8 games · goal difference +7
- 4th Sheffield Wednesday14 points from 7 games · goal difference +7
- 5th Stockport County13 points from 8 games · goal difference +7
- 6th Cambridge United13 points from 8 games · goal difference +2
- 7th Reading12 points from 8 games · goal difference +7
- 8th Burton Albion12 points from 9 games · goal difference -1
- 9th AFC Wimbledon12 points from 8 games · goal difference -2
- 10th Oxford United11 points from 6 games · goal difference +6
- 11th Leyton Orient
Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.
Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
DDrewv Reading26 Sept 2026 · League One · Home2–2
WWonat Wigan19 Sept 2026 · League One · Away1–0
WWonat Leyton Orient12 Sept 2026 · League One · Away3–2
DDrewv Milton Keynes Dons5 Sept 2026 · League One · Home3–3
LLostv Sheffield Wednesday1 Sept 2026 · League One · Home1–2
Show last 6 matchesShowing 6
LLostat Stockport County29 Aug 2026 · League One · Away1–5
Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.
Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
LLostv Bradford19 Sept 2026 · League One · Home0–1
LLostat Stevenage10 Sept 2026 · League One · Away1–2
DDrewv Leyton Orient5 Sept 2026 · League One · Home1–1
WWonv Stockport County2 Sept 2026 · League One · Home2–0
LLostat Mansfield Town30 Aug 2026 · League One · Away2–5
Show last 6 matchesShowing 6
DDrewv Notts County22 Aug 2026 · League One · Home2–2
In the modelThe model rates each team's home and away records separately.
The last 5 and 10 matches, then Wycombe at home and Luton away only: a home fixture is read from home matches where there are enough.
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
Wycombe
- Last 5 (5)2 won, 2 drawn, 1 lost · 10 scored, 9 conceded · 1.60 points a game · 1 clean sheet · failed to score in 0
- Last 10 (6)2 won, 2 drawn, 2 lost · 11 scored, 14 conceded · 1.33 points a game · 1 clean sheet · failed to score in 0
- Home, last 5 (3)0 won, 2 drawn, 1 lost · 6 scored, 7 conceded · 0.67 points a game · 0 clean sheets · failed to score in 0
- Home, last 10 (3)0 won, 2 drawn, 1 lost · 6 scored, 7 conceded · 0.67 points a game · 0 clean sheets · failed to score in 0
Wycombe| Sample | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | CS | FTS |
|---|
| Last 5 (5) | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 9 | +1 | 8 | 1.60 | 1 | 0 |
|---|
| Last 10 (6) | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 14 | -3 | 8 | 1.33 | 1 | 0 |
|---|
| Home, last 5 (3) | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 7 | -1 | 2 | 0.67 | 0 | 0 |
|---|
| Home, last 10 (3) | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 7 | -1 | 2 | 0.67 | 0 | 0 |
|---|
Luton
- Last 5 (5)1 won, 1 drawn, 3 lost · 6 scored, 9 conceded · 0.80 points a game · 1 clean sheet · failed to score in 1
- Last 10 (6)1 won, 2 drawn, 3 lost · 8 scored, 11 conceded · 0.83 points a game · 1 clean sheet · failed to score in 1
- Away, last 5 (2)0 won, 0 drawn, 2 lost · 3 scored, 7 conceded · 0.00 points a game · 0 clean sheets · failed to score in 0
- Away, last 10 (2)0 won, 0 drawn, 2 lost · 3 scored, 7 conceded · 0.00 points a game · 0 clean sheets · failed to score in 0
Luton| Sample | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | CS | FTS |
|---|
| Last 5 (5) | 5 | 1 |
|---|
Wycombe at home: Insufficient historical data. Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
Luton away: Insufficient historical data. Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
Context onlyShown for context. The model's own ratings come from goals scored and conceded this season and last.
| Measure | Wycombe | Luton |
|---|
| League position | 12th | 16th |
|---|
| Points per game | 1.25 | 1.14 |
|---|
| Attack: goals per game (last 6 and 6) | 1.83 | 1.33 |
|---|
| Defence: conceded per game (last 6 and 6) | 2.33 | 1.83 |
|---|
| Clean sheets | 1 | 1 |
|---|
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
In the modelMissing players move the model's expected goals, chiefly a missing top scorer.
Players out or doubtful, as reported the night before.
L
L
· Italy - Serie A
Each of Fiorentina's last 5 league matches had two or more goals.
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 93%
Average price 1.03
AUGFC AugsburgDLDWWBMUBayern MünchenWWWDW
Last 5 games
· Germany - Bundesliga
Each of FC Augsburg's last 4 league matches had three or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 85%
Average price 1.10
HOF1899 HoffenheimLLWLLHAMHamburger SVWWLLL
Last 5 games
· Germany - Bundesliga
Each of 1899 Hoffenheim's last 4 league matches had three or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 87%
Average price 1.07
PADSC Paderborn 07WWLLDVSTVfB StuttgartWWLLW
Last 5 games
· Germany - Bundesliga
3 of VfB Stuttgart's last 4 league matches had two or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 82%
Average price 1.13
UBEUnion BerlinWLLLDELVSV ElversbergLDLWW
Last 5 games
· Germany - Bundesliga
Each of Union Berlin's last 4 league matches had three or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 84%
Average price 1.11
FMAFSV Mainz 05WWLWDBLEBayer LeverkusenWWDWL
Last 5 games
· Germany - Bundesliga
Each of Bayer Leverkusen's last 4 league matches had two or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 83%
Average price 1.13
CHEChelseaLDWLWBOUBournemouthLWDWD
Last 5 games
· England - Premier League
Each of Chelsea's last 5 league matches had three or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 79%
Average price 1.18
MIDMiddlesbroughDDWLWWOLWolvesWLWDL
Last 5 games
· England - Championship
Each of Middlesbrough's last 4 home matches had three or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 75%
Average price 1.25
PREPrestonDLLWLMILMillwallDDLLW
Last 5 games
· England - Championship
Each of Millwall's last 8 league matches had two or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 86%
Average price 1.08
RANRangersWWWWWKILKilmarnockDWDDL
Last 5 games
· Scotland - Premiership
The model expects Rangers to score 1.9 goals and Kilmarnock 0.9.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 75%
Average price 1.25
ALAAlavesDLLWWAMAAtletico MadridWWWLL
Last 5 games
· Spain - La Liga
Each of Atletico Madrid's last 7 league matches had two or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 85%
Average price 1.09
GAEGO Ahead EaglesDDDLWSROSparta RotterdamLLDLD
Last 5 games
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
Each of GO Ahead Eagles's last 7 league matches had two or more goals.
See the full analysisStarting later (8)
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 86%
Average price 1.08
INTInterWDWLWPARParmaWLDLL
Last 5 games
· Italy - Serie A
Each of Parma's last 4 league matches had two or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 88%
Average price 1.05
RLERB LeipzigLWLLWEFREintracht FrankfurtWDWL
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 83%
Average price 1.12
MANManchester UnitedDLLWDTOTTottenhamLLDD
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 85%
Average price 1.10
FEYFeyenoordWWLWDAALAZ AlkmaarWLDW
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 74%
Average price 1.25
MARMaritimoDLLLDPORFC PortoWWWL
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 86%
Average price 1.09
FSIFortuna SittardWWLWWTWETwenteWWWW
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 88%
Average price 1.06
AJAAjaxDWWLWNNINEC NijmegenDLLD
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 88%
Average price 1.05
RMAReal MadridLWWWLVILVillarrealWWLL
10 points from 8 games · goal difference +2
12th Wycombe10 points from 8 games · goal difference -313th Stevenage9 points from 7 games · goal difference +314th Leicester9 points from 7 games · goal difference -215th Blackpool8 points from 7 games · goal difference 016th Luton8 points from 7 games · goal difference -217th Mansfield Town8 points from 7 games · goal difference -318th Barnsley8 points from 7 games · goal difference -519th Bromley8 points from 7 games · goal difference -1020th Notts County7 points from 7 games · goal difference -221st Doncaster6 points from 7 games · goal difference -122nd Milton Keynes Dons6 points from 7 games · goal difference -223rd Peterborough5 points from 8 games · goal difference -924th Wigan4 points from 7 games · goal difference -7| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|
| 1 | Plymouth | 9 | – | – | – | – | – | +5 | 16 |
| 2 | Bradford | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | +3 | 16 |
| 3 | Huddersfield | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | +7 | 15 |
| 4 | Sheffield Wednesday | 7 | – | – | – | – | – | +7 | 14 |
| 5 | Stockport County | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | +7 | 13 |
| 6 | Cambridge United | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | +2 | 13 |
| 7 | Reading | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | +7 | 12 |
| 8 | Burton Albion | 9 | – | – | – | – | – | -1 | 12 |
| 9 | AFC Wimbledon | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | -2 | 12 |
| 10 | Oxford United | 6 | – | – | – | – | – | +6 | 11 |
| 11 | Leyton Orient | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | +2 | 10 |
| 12 | Wycombe | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | -3 | 10 |
| 13 | Stevenage | 7 | – | – | – | – | – | +3 | 9 |
| 14 | Leicester | 7 | – | – | – | – | – | -2 | 9 |
| 15 | Blackpool | 7 | – | – | – | – | – | 0 | 8 |
| 16 | Luton | 7 | – | – | – | – | – | -2 | 8 |
| 17 | Mansfield Town | 7 | – | – | – | – | – | -3 | 8 |
| 18 | Barnsley | 7 | – | – | – | – | – | -5 | 8 |
| 19 | Bromley | 7 | – | – | – | – | – | -10 | 8 |
| 20 | Notts County | 7 | – | – | – | – | – | -2 | 7 |
| 21 | Doncaster | 7 | – | – | – | – | – | -1 | 6 |
| 22 | Milton Keynes Dons | 7 | – | – | – | – | – | -2 | 6 |
| 23 | Peterborough | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | -9 | 5 |
| 24 | Wigan | 7 | – | – | – | – | – | -7 | 4 |
| Last 10 (6) | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 11 | -3 | 5 | 0.83 | 1 | 1 |
|---|
| Away, last 5 (2) | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 0 |
|---|
| Away, last 10 (2) | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 0 |
|---|
D
· Germany - Bundesliga
Each of RB Leipzig's last 4 league matches had two or more goals.
L
· England - Premier League
4 of Manchester United's last 5 league matches had two or more goals.
W
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
Each of Feyenoord's last 6 league matches had three or more goals.
W
· Portugal - Primeira Liga
Each of FC Porto's last 7 league matches had two or more goals.
D
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
Each of Fortuna Sittard's last 3 home matches had two or more goals.
L
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
Each of Ajax's last 7 league matches had two or more goals.
L
· Spain - La Liga
Each of Villarreal's last 4 league matches had three or more goals.